I did slog through the entire Postgame Thread for the South Carolina game. When you get past the referee complaints, there seems to be a consensus that if UConn only lost by 4 points with its current active roster, then it should certainly win when Caroline and Azzi are added to the mix. Geno elaborated on the thinking behind this position during his press conference, where he said that the only way for this roster to beat SC is to take and make enough 3's to offset the 2's that the Gamecocks are inevitably going to get on the offensive boards.
He implied pretty strongly that even with a 10-player roster, UConn this year doesn't have the horses to really contest SC's offensive boards -- he said that to do that, you would need about four 6-5 players who could be freely substituted so that none of them would have to worry about fouls. Unfortunately, I think he's right, and that will still be the case when Azzi and Caroline return. It would be different if Ice were returning or if Jana could play immediately. So I think it's unlikely that UConn will do better against SC's O-boards in April than they did in today's game.
But (so the theory goes) when Azzi and Caroline are on the floor, SC won't be able to drape Lou and those three shooters (with one or two timely contributions from Nika and Aubrey) can make enough 3's to offset SC's second-chance points. But I'm not sure that I buy into that theory. The reason is that SC's defensive plan today was to guard UConn's perimeter shooters so closely that 3's were not open, even if it meant that those perimeter players could drive past them, which UConn certainly did. (Did anyone notice that UConn actually got more points in the paint today than SC, by a margin of 42-38?) Dawn apparently figured that if she could turn UConn's 3-point shooters into 2-point penetrators, SC would win that trade-off, and that is exactly what happened.
For some reason that I haven't figured out, the screens and cuts that usually provide open looks for 3-point shots weren't working today, or weren't being used. I do think that Azzi and Caroline are better than any of today's players at seeing where they can move without the ball to get open, so that may be the difference that they will make. I certainly hope so ...