I can't believe I'm so dumb as to stick my two-cents in this, but...
Evaluating HS girls and trying to determine how they will perform at the next level is so difficult and predicated upon so many variables and intangibles, and for the most part, all things considered, the rating services seem to do a pretty accurate job. Looking at the recent history of one such service, Hoopgurlz, and I don't know if they are considered among the best or worst or somewhere in the middle, their selections are interesting, if not illuminating:
For 2009: Griner #1, Bone #2, Diggins #3, Kelly Faris #34
Griner and Diggins clearly matched their evaluations, I'd say Kelly exceeded expectations
2010: Chiney #1, Odyssey #3, Schimmel #8, Samarie Walker #10, Kayla McBride #20
Chiney and Sims were rated spot on, Schimmel, too. Walker way off, as was Kayla
2011: KML #1, Liz Williams #2, Burdick #3, Massengale #4
Kaleena and Elizabeth have done great work for their programs, Burdick and Ariel have yet to justify their high rankings
2012: Stewie #1, MoJeff #2
Two for two in NCs- rated exactly where they should be
2013: Mercedes Russell #1, Kaela Davis #2, Taya Reimer #4
Russell yet to be healthy so rating unsure, Kaela Davis overrated, as is Reimer
2014: Wilson #1, Turner #2, Kelsey Mitchell #5
A'ja, Brianna and Mitchell all look like the real deal.
Many of these selections seem (in retrospect) to be genuine no-brainers, but...
There seem to be so many factors that are difficult if not impossible to calculate:
- Kelly Faris' heart, determination, work ethic enabled her to perform at a higher level than most rankings. -Samarie Walker had difficulties with a very demanding coach, transfer to UK still didn't perform to her ratings, Kayla was super and underrated out of HS. -Elizabeth Williams might have been great(er) with a better coach. The 2 UT players I think also suffer(ed) as a result of Holly/No Pat -Stewie and Mo performed to their high ratings
- Russell can't be judged yet, Davis seems an out-of-control, not a team player who will compile big numbers and zero championships.
I think the easier things to see when watching high school girls play are the individual skills/talents they possess- how well they run, jump, shoot, pass, defend. Their conditioning is also pretty observable. How "translatable" are these to the next level- that can be really tough to figure. What isn't always readily known is how coachable they are, how hard are they willing to work (for themselves or for the team?) What kind of motor (heart) do they have ( a Faris warrior-heart or a Walker?) Interesting that #1 Griner, Ogwumike, KML, and Stewart all played for coaches universally considered to be the best in the college game- Mulkey, VanDerVeer, and Auriemma. Were they able to live up to their # 1 HS ranking because they played for the best coaches? Did these great coaches get something out of them that other, lesser coaches might not have been able to? The X-Factor of great vs. not great coaching in WCBB. Reimer has yet to live up to her ranking (conditioning?) but she is still young. McBride and Faris were far better than advertised, and how much of that was a function of having perhaps the two best coaches in McGraw and Geno? Or is it a function of that immeasureable intangible - desire, heart, indomitable will?
Based on what I have seen of Lauren Cox (and based on none of the hype I have read) I think she's going to be a once-in-a-lifetime GREAT at the next level. Come to UConn, Lauren. PLEASE You won't regret it.