RPI Ratings for Conferences through 11/28

[tzznandrew]

I think he's saying that, now that OOC is nearing its end, AAC teams won't have much a chance to increase the conference RPI (and further, their own) due to the general weakness of the conference. You get 3 RPI-building teams (us, UL, Memphis), while Duke has all year to play Cuse, Pitt, UNC, FSU, VT, UVA, ND. Those are all potential tournament teams. We have maybe 2 teams beyond the previously mentioned 3.

Oh, I fully undertand what he is talking about. But remember that the RPI is 75% your opponent's winning percentange and your opponent's opponent's winning percentage. Which means all sorts of things change. That team you played that was 8-0 could end up 8-22. And that's only the beginning of it...

It's still in flux, and it's silly, and intentionally ignorant to think otherwise.

 

[tzznandrew]

People need to stop attacking me from a position of total ignorance about the RPI, or simple math.

I originally wrote a fairly long rebuttal explaining why you are wrong, but that would be wasted on you. The better question to ask is, why do you think the AAC's RPI ranking will be better in 3 months? What will happen to move that needle? Because that is your position.

P.S. You can guarantee that I will keep bumping this thread as I am proven more right and you are proven more wrong.

The fact that the conference may finish 9th in the RPI is not, and has never been my point.

My point is that the conference being 9th on 11/29 is meaningless. It was then, it is now, and it will always be so, no matter what you are trying to argue. Things don't matter until February. If the AAC is 9th then, you are still not right, because that was never the argument I was putting forward. The fact that, within 4 days of your initial post, the AAC climbed to 5th in the RPI should have been enough to prove that point, but since you are obsessed with this, it won't be.


Talk about wasting someone's time...

 

[Husky25]

I dont have much in the way of inside information beyond what was shared on this board. I do know that a top public university academically that has a lot of hardware and good geography is on the outside looking in. We are doing something wrong.
I prefer this perspective to the alternative, which is that Herbst has played her cards right and still lost. if that is the case, we are in big trouble.

You never give any consideration to the possibility that the game was not necessarily being played on the level, vis a vie the ACC. Tough proposition when the deck is stacked against you and the dealer is base-dealing

That is why Herbst changed the rules herself. Instead of kowtowing to the 6/10 who thinks she's all that because she hangs out with the cheerleaders, Herbst is going after the Captain of the cheerleaders who just indicated that her relationship with the Senior QB Captain is not as solid as they once thought.

By the way, being right with a flawed argument is akin to not being right at all, no matter how the math works out. It is flawed because it is incomplete. The only number that you should be worried about is the number 9, UConn's RPI as we speak.

I don't think UConn is doing everything in its power to get more revenue. I think our leadership dislikes upsetting the applecart, which always makes UConn the easiest school to say no to. I think the AAC should be actively exploring alternative structures right now, including dissolving the AAC and voiding the ESPN contract.

We are taking a revenue hit going forward because the TV deal, NCAA tournament units, and bowl money will all be a lot less going forward than they were in the past. Going with the flow is the wrong way to act right now.

The courts are smarter than that. Substance-over-form typically relates to tax avoidance, but it certainly has a legal application in the courts. Dissolving the American Athletic Conference and creating, for instance, the National Athletic Conference, with substantially the same member schools minus Tulane and Tulsa, but adding Buffalo and Massachusetts (Like you want to do) would probably not affect the TV contract with ESPN. At best it would make it voidable at their sole discretion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You never give any consideration to the possibility that the game was not necessarily being played on the level, vis a vie the ACC. Tough proposition when the deck is stacked against you and the dealer is base-dealing

That is why Herbst changed the rules herself. Instead of kowtowing to the 6/10 who thinks she's all that because she hangs out with the cheerleaders, Herbst is going after the Captain of the cheerleaders who just indicated that her relationship with the Senior QB Captain is not as solid as they once thought.

By the way, being right with a flawed argument is akin to not being right at all, no matter how the math works out. It is flawed because it is incomplete. The only number that you should be worried about is the number 9, UConn's RPI as we speak.



The courts are smarter than that. Substance-over-form typically relates to tax avoidance, but it certainly has a legal application in the courts. Dissolving the American Athletic Conference and creating, for instance, the National Athletic Conference, with substantially the same member schools minus Tulane and Tulsa, but adding Buffalo and Massachusetts (Like you want to do) would probably not affect the TV contract with ESPN. At best it would make it voidable at their sole discretion.

It is not a flawed argument. It is obvious to anyone that understands RPI, basketball, or even can describe what a basketball looks like that the AAC is a weak conference and the Big East is a lot better. We have 6 pages of counter arguments to a statement that shouldn't have been that controversial.

Why were the only 3 teams of the OBE that were bound by the old agreement UConn, Cincinnati and USF? Half the conference walked away, gave ESPN the finger, and signed a lucrative long term deal with ESPN's most dangerous competitor, while using the Big East name!!! Where was the lawsuit there? There was no lawsuit because ESPN's agreement is with a league, not the underlying teams. The ACC and Big 12 renegotiated their agreements with weaker hands than the one I am talking about, and they got millions more for each school.

UConn needs something, anything, to stay relevant. Doing nothing is the worst decision possible. Patience is not a virtue here. This feels like a BCU board at times because everyone not only accepts the death sentence on UConn, but shouts down anyone who argues for doing something about it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The fact that the conference may finish 9th in the RPI is not, and has never been my point.

My point is that the conference being 9th on 11/29 is meaningless. It was then, it is now, and it will always be so, no matter what you are trying to argue. Things don't matter until February. If the AAC is 9th then, you are still not right, because that was never the argument I was putting forward. The fact that, within 4 days of your initial post, the AAC climbed to 5th in the RPI should have been enough to prove that point, but since you are obsessed with this, it won't be.


Talk about wasting someone's time...

You are saying that you are not arguing that the AAC is good, only we won't know it is not good until February, at which point we will know the AAC is not good. My question is, if we know the AAC will not be good in February, then why are you arguing with my assertion that the AAC is not good right now?

Is it just a coincidence that the order of the Top 10 RPI conferences on 11/29 is likely going to very close to the final conference RPI rankings?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Oh, I fully undertand what he is talking about. But remember that the RPI is 75% your opponent's winning percentange and your opponent's opponent's winning percentage. Which means all sorts of things change. That team you played that was 8-0 could end up 8-22. And that's only the beginning of it...

It's still in flux, and it's silly, and intentionally ignorant to think otherwise.

The opponent's opponent's winning percentage is generally pretty close to .500 unless a lot of a school's opponents played cupcakes. If you go just one more derivative, it is almost always within a few bps of .500. The opponent's winning percentage is usually dictated by the conference schedule, which is dictated by non-conference RPI. In other words, the point I have made about a dozen times in this thread.

 

[pepband99]

You are saying that you are not arguing that the AAC is good, only we won't know it is not good until February, at which point we will know the AAC is not good. My question is, if we know the AAC will not be good in February, then why are you arguing with my assertion that the AAC is not good right now?

Is it just a coincidence that the order of the Top 10 RPI conferences on 11/29 is likely going to very close to the final conference RPI rankings?

No, his point is that it doesn't matter if the AAC is good or not, trying to prove it via a metric at a time when the metric is useless is stupid.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No, his point is that it doesn't matter if the AAC is good or not, trying to prove it via a metric at a time when the metric is useless is stupid.

It doesn't matter if the AAC is good or not? That is the topic of the thread, in case you were not paying attention or simply can't read. And the AAC is ranked 10 now.

And if you are a UConn fan, it matters very much whether the AAC is good or not.

You have been proven wrong. My original post was analysis, not opinion, and the assessment I made weeks ago is being proven more and more right every day.

 

[BlueHen]

It doesn't matter if the AAC is good or not? That is the topic of the thread, in case you were not paying attention or simply can't read. And the AAC is ranked 10 now.

And if you are a UConn fan, it matters very much whether the AAC is good or not.

You have been proven wrong. My original post was analysis, not opinion, and the assessment I made weeks ago is being proven more and more right every day.

Your original post is a chart showing the 11/28 Conference RPI, followed by your opinion of what it means. There is no analysis.

 

[huskyharry]

You may be right.

The Big East schools walked away because they did not want to be in a league with USF, UCF, Houston, SMU, Tulane, ECU and the rest of the attendance repellant that is now in this conference. I think they would be receptive to UConn as a football independent and basketball only member. It would also cut the costs of the non-revenue sports to be in a league more closely based in the northeast.

I am not above joining the A10 either. UConn, Cincinnati and Temple would make the A10 the 7th best basketball league. Or UConn could go alone. At least it wouldn't be the train wreck that this AAC is.

To do that, we would probably have to go independent in football. I know a lot of you think the odds are long, but the current situation is a death sentence, so anything would be an improvement. I would even join the MAC for football over staying in this league for all sports.

Absolutely agree, but I think we wil be stuck in the AAC for at least 2-3 more seasons. Optimists are predicting that the Big Ten or ACC will come calling by that time (doesn't look likely at present)

 

[pepband99]

It doesn't matter if the AAC is good or not? That is the topic of the thread, in case you were not paying attention or simply can't read. And the AAC is ranked 10 now.

And if you are a UConn fan, it matters very much whether the AAC is good or not.

You have been proven wrong. My original post was analysis, not opinion, and the assessment I made weeks ago is being proven more and more right every day.

Your original post was about the RPI in November. It's been shot to threads, and you've spent the rest of the time trying to chat about conference "quality" rather than RPI.

The only real RPI problem, as I've said before, is our atrocious conference OOC RPI. Some of that will be helped soon enough (UCONN's 3 big OOC games, Ville against KY, etc), but it's not going to recover enough.

I'll reiterate: I agree with you that our conference sucks. But using the RPI in November to prove it defies logic and sense.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your original post was about the RPI in November. It's been shot to threads, and you've spent the rest of the time trying to chat about conference "quality" rather than RPI.

The only real RPI problem, as I've said before, is our atrocious conference OOC RPI. Some of that will be helped soon enough (UCONN's 3 big OOC games, Ville against KY, etc), but it's not going to recover enough.

I'll reiterate: I agree with you that our conference sucks. But using the RPI in November to prove it defies logic and sense.

It has been shot to threads? The Top 4 on 11/28 is the same order as the Top 4 today. The AAC has an almost identical RPI to what it had on 11/28.

And now you are going full-p&$%y and agreeing with my conclusion from my original post but still attacking me personally.

Do you understand what statistical sampling is at even a high level? It is how polling services can call about 5,000 people nationally and generally nail the outcome of a presidential election within about 1-2 percentage points of the final margin. You don't need to call 130 million people to figure out how 130 million people will vote.

By the time we were 70-80 games into the season, we had a statistically meaningful sample of games to assess the conference. Sure there were a lot of games left, but generally the teams that were winning early on were going to keep winning, and the teams that were losing early on were going to keep losing. The teams that were splitting were going to keep splitting. Sure teams could turn it around, but for every team that picked it up after a slow start there would be a team that wasted a couple of surprising early wins. And it gets very hard to move a conference RPI ranking once the conference schedule starts because conference play is a zero sum game and by playing teams that are already at a certain level, there is a reinforcement loop that impacts all the teams in the league. When UConn was playing in the best league, this would reinforce the Big East at the top because high RPI teams were playing high RPI teams. And now that UConn is in a midmajor, the same thing will happen, just at a different level.

For this particular argument, there is a scoreboard. I am right, and you are wrong.

 

[pepband99]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/Amer.html

So, the fact that we've moved between 10 and 6 since your original post doesn't phase you? I guess not, because you're in fantasy land.

Continue to ignore the SOS btw, because it's 1) the most pertinent number and 2) the least likely to materially change.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Still too early to declare that the AAC sucks in hoops?

 

[UConnDan97]

Still too early to declare that the AAC sucks in hoops?

No, it's not too early. It's also not true. Can you interrupt your ridiculous rant for 10 minutes and do me three favors?

1) Explain to me why in the CBS "Bracketology", the American is predicted to send 4 teams to the dance while the Big East is only predicted to send 3 (even though both leagues have 10 teams each)?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference

2) Explain to me why in the AP poll, the American has 3 ranked teams in the top 25 with 1 additional receiving votes, while the Big East only has 1 in the top 25 with 1 additional receiving votes?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/8/seasontype/2

3) Explain to me why the American has almost an identical winning percentage as compared to the Big East (72% vs. 74% respectively)?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference

These are all rhetorical questions. Top to bottom, the Big East is slightly stronger. But to act as if the American sucks and that the Big East is God's gift to basketball is kidding yourself and others. For the love of God, give it a rest! Stop praying for the day to come when we abandon football to play basketball with Seton Hall and DePaul again...

 

[BlueHen]

Still too early to declare that the AAC sucks in hoops?

Let me guess, the latest

No, it's not too early. It's also not true. Can you interrupt your ridiculous rant for 10 minutes and do me three favors?

1) Explain to me why in the CBS "Bracketology", the American is predicted to send 4 teams to the dance while the Big East is only predicted to send 3 (even though both leagues have 10 teams each)?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference

2) Explain to me why in the AP poll, the American has 3 ranked teams in the top 25 with 1 additional receiving votes, while the Big East only has 1 in the top 25 with 1 additional receiving votes?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/8/seasontype/2

3) Explain to me why the American has almost an identical winning percentage as compared to the Big East (72% vs. 74% respectively)?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference

These are all rhetorical questions. Top to bottom, the Big East is slightly stronger. But to act as if the American sucks and that the Big East is God's gift to basketball is kidding yourself and others. For the love of God, give it a rest! Stop praying for the day to come when we abandon football to play basketball with Seton Hall and DePaul again...

It's also not relevant. Right now, the AAC is UConn's best option. Arguing the merits of the Big East versus the AAC is a waste of time. Before UConn can move hoops to the Big East it would first have to find a home for football.

Also, basing a move from the AAC to the Big East on a "snap shot" of conference rankings is short sighted. Just as moving from the Old Big East to the AAC may hurt UConn's recruiting, moving from the Old Big East to the New Big East may hurt the New Big East recruiting. Who knows how strong the two conferences will be in the long run. I hope UConn ends up in the B1G or ACC, but in the mean time I'd rather see UConn in a conference with like minded schools as opposed to being in a conference with schools that don't care about football.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

AAC is at #8, a whopping 1 spot above where they were when i started this post almost 2 months ago. The Big East is a short hair out of the third spot, and will likely close that gap when Villanova dump trucks Temple in a couple of weeks.

The aac will lose the #31 and #192 RPI teams next year, and replace them with #130, #221 and #255 RPI programs.

 

[noeynox]

AAC is at #8, a whopping 1 spot above where they were when i started this post almost 2 months ago. The Big East is a short hair out of the third spot, and will likely close that gap when Villanova dump trucks Temple in a couple of weeks.

The aac will lose the #31 and #192 RPI teams next year, and replace them with #130, #221 and #255 RPI programs.

Good for them with the RPI, but how many teams you think they will get into the tournament?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is a 4 bid league right now. SMU is 2-4 against the Top 100, and only has 5 games left. 4-7 is not good enough, but an SMU gain is another school's loss. SMU is playing a lot of RPI poison games, as are all of the top 5 in the league. Someone is going to lose on Selection Sunday.

 

[itgoeslike]

Here's an interesting take on the NBE from SBNation. Not sure if it will be blocked, so I copied a select quote below:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bas...big-east-has-an-identity-but-not-much-glamour

"Their new identity in tow, the current incarnation of the once-great conference has stumbled in its first season, presently holding a 4-24 record against AP top 25 teams."

Since the OP likes to quote Warren Nolan one should take a look at his NPI, which is arguably a better indicator than RPI. In addition, if you look at Predictions-Final Conference Standings (directly below Conference RPI) and scroll down to NBE you'll see what the anticipated RPI standings will be after league play in a conference with a lot of parity and not many top teams. This indicates the NBE will continue to slide down in the standings.

http://WarrenNolan.com/basketball/2014/predictedstandings

Currently, the AAC may get up to 5 teams in the tourney with the NBE getting in 3-4 teams (depending upon how Georgetown does). Having said that, the NBE is a better league top to bottom (emphasis on bottom) and they may finish 4th with the AAC finishing 6th or 7th by the season's end. If you have a myopic view of conference realignment you might think this is important. If you have a broader perspective on CR you will likely find it to be somewhat irrelevant.

 

[UConnDan97]

This is a 4 bid league right now. SMU is 2-4 against the Top 100, and only has 5 games left. 4-7 is not good enough, but an SMU gain is another school's loss. SMU is playing a lot of RPI poison games, as are all of the top 5 in the league. Someone is going to lose on Selection Sunday.

Joe Lunardi has SMU as an 11 seed and predicts them to be as likely to get in as Georgetown....but hey, who cares about that because Nelson has spoken!

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Keep banging that drum, Nelson. Someone might give a damn one day. Your basic premise that the American would be a death sentence for UConn has already proven itself not to be true. Your ideology of scrapping football and joining the Big East in every other sport has already shown itself to be folly. But keep banging the drum...

 

[Fishy]

We've been in the American for about five conference games - the question of our demise or salvation has yet to be answered.

But it is a bad basketball conference going forward. There's just no way around that right now.

The new Big East is a far more appealing hoop conference, but no one can argue that it's gotten off to a lousy start on the court and on the ratings front. They can't afford a couple of down seasons in terms of public perception.

 

[metsfan2323]

They can't afford a couple of down seasons in terms of public perception.

Very true, right now the Big East is barely better than the A10, a couple down seasons and they will be the A10. Being buried on Fox could slowly destroy that league as will losing Buzz Williams and /or Jay Wright to the P5.

I originally wanted NBC to win the AAC contract last year, boy was I wrong, not being on ESPN would be a disaster.

 

[Fishy]

Oh, amen.

Can you imagine the AAC on channel 1782 or wherever NBC Sports lives?

The headlines would be, "UConn bankrupts sports' network".

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The RPI is the RPI. The formula is pretty simple, and based on winning and losing. The Big East conference is essentially tied for #3 right now, makes more money per school, and has a major sports network almost all to itself. I have a hard time understanding how they are worse off than we are.

 

[Hoophound]

The RPI is the RPI. The formula is pretty simple, and based on winning and losing. The Big East conference is essentially tied for #3 right now, makes more money per school, and has a major sports network almost all to itself. I have a hard time understanding how they are worse off than we are.

The Big East doesn't exist anymore. Out of sight, out of mind. It would be nice to be making more money but everything else about our deal is better. I haven't watched a single Big East game yet.

There some very smart people on this board that are pining for the Big East, you and Fishy among them, but the Big East is finished. In the Northeast there are traditionalists that miss it and somehow think it is much better than the AAC, but you are in the minority. Nationally, the Big East has vanished and nobody cares at all. If I still lived up there I might feel the same way but living in the south, I realize that the AAC is front and center and the Big East is gone.

 

[itgoeslike]

Leaving the AAC for the New Big East is a bad idea strategically and financially—at least for the next 36 months. In the near term, the only logical reason for UCONN to leave behind the exit fee payouts, tourney credits, etc. and incur an exit fee of its own, is to join a P5 conference. Joining the NBE any time soon effectively throws in the towel on any P5 aspirations. Most UCONN fans understand why we are slogging away in the AAC.

 

[noeynox]

The RPI is the RPI. The formula is pretty simple, and based on winning and losing. The Big East conference is essentially tied for #3 right now, makes more money per school, and has a major sports network almost all to itself. I have a hard time understanding how they are worse off than we are.

Nobodody watches their games. They make more money per school now (if you ignore the exit fees were getting), but I believe they had a five year deal with Fox. They will have to greatly improve their numbers to approach whatever their deal was again. No one is watching their games, and FS1, is getting really good ratings for things like CFB, and the UFC, so the fact that the Big East ratings are so bad would seem to indicate... no one really cares to tune into CBB between Providence and Depaul or Seton Hall or St. Johns.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

The Big East doesn't exist anymore. Out of sight, out of mind. It would be nice to be making more money but everything else about our deal is better. I haven't watched a single Big East game yet.

There some very smart people on this board that are pining for the Big East, you and Fishy among them, but the Big East is finished. In the Northeast there are traditionalists that miss it and somehow think it is much better than the AAC, but you are in the minority. Nationally, the Big East has vanished and nobody cares at all. If I still lived up there I might feel the same way but living in the south, I realize that the AAC is front and center and the Big East is gone.

This is very true. Traditionalists in the northeast may disagree....but to the rest of the country East Carolina and Tulane are more important in the national landscape than Seton Hall, Depaul, Creighton, Butler, St Johns and Providence. Villanova and GT are probably on par with East Carolina and Tulane. I am not talking basketball only...just sports profile in general.

I think the NBE barely has credibilitiy now..and that will only decrease. I don't think it is possible to lose UConn, Cuse and Pitt and stay relevant. It will be the A10.

UConn is in the best place possible to try and stay afloat until a P5 commisioner throws out a life preserver.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

The RPI is the RPI. The formula is pretty simple, and based on winning and losing. The Big East conference is essentially tied for #3 right now, makes more money per school, and has a major sports network almost all to itself. I have a hard time understanding how they are worse off than we are.

I would suggest that you start looking at the big picture. Long term objectives. And not what the RPI says 5 games into the season on 1/21/14.