OT: Rothstein - Big East could play 20 conference games if it adds 11th team

[UConnSwag11]

Have fun watching them match up against A10 and MWC as "marquee OOC opponents" when the P5 cartel breaks off and (shocker) doesn't take the Big East with it.

I think uconn will be in the Acc or b1G by 2020

 

[shizzle787]

Not drivel at all. Anyone who knows anything about where college sports are headed knows that the P5 schools have been taking every conceivable step to separate themselves from the rest in the hopes of a clean break.

The argument that Edsall's tenure at Maryland means he can't stabilize a program a tier down and make it just as attractive to a power conference the others it's competing with? Fallacious at best.

No way the P5 are breaking away.
1. CTE is going to kill football in the next 10 years.
2. They are not going to kill their cash cow, March Madness.
3. They are not going to give up home games against cupcakes.
4. The NBE is better than at least 2 of the P5 leagues so they aren't getting left behind.
5. Say hello to a massive anti-trust lawsuit.

What is likely to happen is Division 1 is split with the top 200 or so schools surviving so that there can still be March Madness, cupcake games, Cinderella, and the major conferences will get more bids,

 

[chiller99.5]

"The argument that Edsall's tenure at Maryland means he can't stabilize a program a tier down and make it just as attractive to a power conference the others it's competing with? Fallacious at best."

I be happy to believe he could do this but I dont see any comparable success in his past ...Coaches that are coveted and valued dont assume massive rebuild projects, they are scooped up by other power conferences competing teams. The football program is at least another head coach away from being "attractive" and attendance pretty much proves that point.

 

[Guapo]

No way the P5 are breaking away.
1. CTE is going to kill football in the next 10 years.
2. They are not going to kill their cash cow, March Madness.
3. They are not going to give up home games against cupcakes.
4. The NBE is better than at least 2 of the P5 leagues so they aren't getting left behind.
5. Say hello to a massive anti-trust lawsuit.

What is likely to happen is Division 1 is split with the top 200 or so schools surviving so that there can still be March Madness, cupcake games, Cinderella, and the major conferences will get more bids,

@shizzle787 I like you.

However, as I've mentioned here before, anyone who thinks college football is dying within the next 10 years has not spent many autumn Saturdays outside the northeast.

Not saying football is ethically right or wrong, I'm just stating fact.

I really think people here have trouble fully grasping just how MASSIVE of a deal college football is in the South and parts of the Midwest.

 

[August_West]

Lets do this. Im ready for Big East next season.

 

[uconngb]

So what??? Both Xavier and Temple are different teams than they were last year.

Temple last year didn't have Josh Brown and a Sophomore Quentin Rose, along with the NC Freshman class. Rose will be one of the biggest talents in the country this year.

Xavier is also stronger this year than they were last year. They wont be 7th.

7th is likely to be Butler, sans Chris Holtmann, Kyle Young, Cooper Neese, etc. Jordan hasn't peed a drop as a HC. His first season at Milwaukee was pedestrian to be polite.

Making assumptions based on last year is not the most wise thing to do around here.

I couldnt care less about other sports, I care about Uconn men's basketball. And in terms of comparing teams, someone said they would take Temple over the BE's 7th team. Based on what? The BE is pretty solid 1-7, definitely more solid than the AAC, and that's assuming you put Georgetown and St Johns in the bottom 3, both of which have more history than anyone in the AAC save for a couple teams. I don't know how anyone could look at the two conferences, top to bottom, and say the AAC is superior to the BE in men's hoops. I'm too lazy to do the research, but I'm pretty sure the BE has put more teams in the tourney EVERY year since the split than the AAC, so don't accuse me of cherry picking unless you have the facts to back it up. Like I said, get rid of the schools that are consistently above 150-200 in the RPI and bring in VCU and I'll change my tune. But right now your case is pretty hard to make.

 

[uconngb]

It's close to 0% today, but as we've seen, and experienced, that can change in an instant. Too hard to predict the landscape

I hope you're right, but hope isn't a strategy!!

 

[UConnSwag11]

No way the P5 are breaking away.
1. CTE is going to kill football in the next 10 years.
2. They are not going to kill their cash cow, March Madness.
3. They are not going to give up home games against cupcakes.
4. The NBE is better than at least 2 of the P5 leagues so they aren't getting left behind.
5. Say hello to a massive anti-trust lawsuit.

What is likely to happen is Division 1 is split with the top 200 or so schools surviving so that there can still be March Madness, cupcake games, Cinderella, and the major conferences will get more bids,

CTE is not going to kill football.

 

[shizzle787]

CTE is not going to kill football.

Within five years, doctors will be able to diagnose CTE among the living. That will result in studies where the participants have CTE scans before and after playing the sport for a couple years in different levels (high school, college, NFL). When the results come back showing that the vast majority developed CTE after playing football, it will be toast.

 

[uconngb]

Within five years, doctors will be able to diagnose CTE among the living. That will result in studies where the participants have CTE scans before and after playing the sport for a couple years in different levels (high school, college, NFL). When the results come back showing that the vast majority developed CTE after playing football, it will be toast.

Would love to bet you on that

 

[UConnSwag11]

Within five years, doctors will be able to diagnose CTE among the living. That will result in studies where the participants have CTE scans before and after playing the sport for a couple years in different levels (high school, college, NFL). When the results come back showing that the vast majority developed CTE after playing football, it will be toast.

you think people who 1.have the opportunity to go to college for free and play a sport they love. 2. have experiences others can only dream of. 3. go on to the NFL to make millions of dollars playing the sport they love. 4. make enough money to support their families and their kids kids, are going to not play they game because of CTE? I'm sorry but that's not happening. It's a mutual agreement. No one is going to force them to play if they don't want to. They can leave when they want to

 

[shizzle787]

you think people who 1.have the opportunity to go to college for free and play a sport they love. 2. have experiences others can only dream of. 3. go on to the NFL to make millions of dollars playing the sport they love. 4. make enough money to support their families and their kids kids, are going to not play they game because of CTE? I'm sorry but that's not happening. It's a mutual agreement. No one is going to force them to play if they don't want to. They can leave when they want to

The NFL is already seeing the effects of concussions. The biggest stars in the game are mostly in their thirties. The California pipeline for kids is closing. The participation rates in that state are going down at the high school level.
When health insurance companies qualify playing football as the same as smoking cigarettes, you'll have a problem.
Just remember something: most of the poor kids in inner cities are the ones that are not going to have many options and thus try to make it big in football. When the local school district decides to can football for insurance reasons, these kids will have no path to the NFL.

 

[TyroneShoo]

I think uconn will be in the Acc or b1G by 2020

Ok..I'm intrigued.what on earth would make you think that is going to happen within the next 26 months? No factor that seems to matter to power conferences appears to point to that outcome. Do you project that the football program will attract the big ten?

 

[auggie22]

Would love to bet you on that

Which are you betting against:
1) that a viable test on the living will emerge
2.) that the presence of this test will change the participation at the youth and high school levels
3.) that a decline in participation will trigger a decline in interest

Would be good to know what you are arguing.

 

[JSB60]

If I thought the P5 would take UCONN, I'd say stay in the AAC. Since I don't, Big East all the way. Better basketball conference, more teams I care about playing, and it's where UCONN has always belonged. I'm agnostic about the football question, I think the sport could decline faster than many people think, but then again it might not. But as long as football is king, UCONN isn't getting a P5 bid. If it goes away, no problem being in the Big East anyway.

 

[Wordbomar]

Imo, we need to sit tight until this new AAC TV Deal comes. If it is P5 type money, we should stay. If it's not, and no P5 bid seems to be on horizon, then we begin to have these discussions seriously.

 

[Guapo]

Imo, we need to sit tight until this new AAC TV Deal comes. If it is P5 type money, we should stay. If it's not, and no P5 bid seems to be on horizon, then we begin to have these discussions seriously.

Define "P5 type money."

Because if you're thinking ACC money, we ain't getting that.

 

[StunningSteve]

I couldnt care less about other sports, I care about Uconn men's basketball. And in terms of comparing teams, someone said they would take Temple over the BE's 7th team. Based on what? The BE is pretty solid 1-7, definitely more solid than the AAC, and that's assuming you put Georgetown and St Johns in the bottom 3, both of which have more history than anyone in the AAC save for a couple teams.

Let's compare.. (to see just how solid they are) Bear in mind that college sports is entirely a coach driven business (Just by moving Coach A - like Dixon from Pitt to TCU - suddenly Program B (TCU) has a program.

So, who are the coaches in the NBE...

1. Jay Wright
2. Chris Mack
3. Ed Cooley
4. Greg McDermott
5. Steve Wojciechowski
6. Dave Leitao
7. LaVall Jordan
8. Chris Mullin
9. Patrick Ewing
10. Kevin Willard

And, how do they stack up, vs...

1. Kevin Ollie
2. Gregg Marshall
3. Tubby Smith
4. Jeff Lebo
5. Kelvin Sampson
6. Mick Cronin
7. Mike Dunleavy
8. Johnny Dawkins
9. Tim Jankovich
10. Brian Gregory
11. Frank Haith
12. Fran Dunphy

I don't think its a contest when you talk about coaching ability/IQ. The NBE is hiring all their former players instead of looking for the most legit basketball brains.

If you believe that Georgetown with Ewing as coach is in the same universe (stratosphere) as it was when he was a player in the 80s then you are a fool. Their recruiting has devolved since even Jt3 was canned.

As for the individual teams, the programs in the AAC have more national championships/final fours/ etc as well.

The NBE has more recent success. That's it. And that advantage is rooted in the fact that the American took over some programs that needed to be upgraded. That upgrade has worked out very nicely at SMU (Jank) and UCF (Dawkins). SMU has been a tourney regular and UCF will be starting this year when an influx of transfers (including future NBAer Aubrey Dawkins) supplement the core of BJ and Tacko that made the NIT Final Four. Frankly, I've enjoyed watching the process of how the conference has been built, and has grown. College sports is 100% coach driven.

Hiring all those rubes will tank the NBE's bids. You don't replace a Chris Holtmann with an 11 win coach and not fall off. It will be an interesting experiment because they chose their expansion candidates on proven success and their coaches on a COMPLETELY different metric.

I appreciate all the sports.

AAC Football has 3 teams in the Top 25 right now, and I'll cheer them on just as I would if UConn were one of the three. Sorry if you can't relate to that.

I want Randy to get into that discussion so bad... Just as much as I want the 5th National Championship.

 

[uconnell]

If I thought the P5 would take UCONN, I'd say stay in the AAC. Since I don't, Big East all the way. Better basketball conference, more teams I care about playing, and it's where UCONN has always belonged. I'm agnostic about the football question, I think the sport could decline faster than many people think, but then again it might not. But as long as football is king, UCONN isn't getting a P5 bid. If it goes away, no problem being in the Big East anyway.

Maybe it's no problem for you to be in the NBE but it certainly is for me and I'm sure a lot of other fans also. Why can't people be fans of UConn Sports rather than a fan of basketball only or football only?

Besisides I hate the NBE.

 

[businesslawyer]

@shizzle787 I like you.

However, as I've mentioned here before, anyone who thinks college football is dying within the next 10 years has not spent many autumn Saturdays outside the northeast.

Not saying football is ethically right or wrong, I'm just stating fact.

I really think people here have trouble fully grasping just how MASSIVE of a deal college football is in the South and parts of the Midwest.

Ten years is the wrong time frame. But it is dying. Because no one will insure football players from head injuries, and lawsuits from injured football players will become easier and easier.

From what I know from trustees, it may die at the non-Division 1 level in a relatively short time frame. The big boys will hold out longer but eventually it will happen.

 

[Guapo]

Ten years is the wrong time frame. But it is dying. Because no one will insure football players from head injuries, and lawsuits from injured football players will become easier and easier.

From what I know from trustees, it may die at the non-Division 1 level in a relatively short time frame. The big boys will hold out longer but eventually it will happen.

I can agree with that.

But I'm thinking it's much closer to a 30-50 year time frame than 10 years for the big boys.

It'll be generational, not overnight.

 

[ctchamps]

Ten years is the wrong time frame. But it is dying. Because no one will insure football players from head injuries, and lawsuits from injured football players will become easier and easier.

From what I know from trustees, it may die at the non-Division 1 level in a relatively short time frame. The big boys will hold out longer but eventually it will happen.

@shizzle787 is correct that studies and technology will be able to detect CTE on the living. This will only increase the liability factor. I think his 5 year time frame is too conservative.

OTOH there are helmets being designed which look promising in limiting if not eliminating concussions.

OTOOH soccer is becoming popular in this country to the point that viewership and participation could impact football.

College sports, like everything today, has a lot of uncertainty. It will be interesting to see if there is further erosion of ESPN subscriptions and how that impacts media coverage and conference contracts. My thinking is the P5 ends up as a P6 with 120 or so teams in order to consolidate basketball distributions in a similar manner that took place in football. That's the next best play for a money grab if my uninformed conjecture is correct that media monies to conferences might have peaked.

 

[August_West]

Define "P5 type money."

Because if you're thinking ACC money, we ain't getting that.

We are not even getting our last contract. "TV contracts" are experiencing a paradigm shift. Why do you think the Biggies are all trying to get into their own networks?

 

[ctchamps]

We are not even getting our last contract. "TV contracts" are experiencing a paradigm shift. Why do you think the Biggies are all trying to get into their own networks?

The Longhorn Network along with the contraction in ESPN subscribers are the tale for how things play out imo.

 

[Guapo]

We are not even getting our last contract. "TV contracts" are experiencing a paradigm shift. Why do you think the Biggies are all trying to get into their own networks?

True.

I'd pay top dollar for a Roku UConn channel