Red Sox Pitching

[Dooley]

Pomeranz is absolutely an upgrade over anything the Sox throw out there on the 4th or 5th day. No question about that. The concern with Pomeranz is, as it always has been with him, his health. He can't seem to stay off the DL. You get a few years of very cheap control so even if the Sox make more moves to upgrade their rotation, they can slide Pomeranz into the bullpen, if they have to, to try to protect his arm. $1.5M/yr for a bullpen arm is good value. But I'm talking future years - he obviously is a SP upgrade for the 2016 season if he stays healthy.

Espinoza was a VERY high price to pay to get him. A-ball or not. Kid is 18, throw upper 90s gas, has outstanding mechanics which allows him to repeat his delivery and bring very high control rate. He is the next Julio Urias in terms of young, electric arm that will generate tons of buzz as he dominates the minors. He likely won't see Petco until Pomeranz leaves Fenway in 2018 if the Friars develop him properly, like they seem to do. But the return here has the potential of being outstanding and give the Padres their next great ace since Jake Peavy. Gives them some years to properly rebuild and allow their prospects, including the long-term projects that they already got in the Kimbrel trade, time to develop properly.

 

[Husky25]

Espinoza dominated Rookie ball and the Dominican league. He was sort of getting lit up in A ball. Yes the kid is 18. Yes he could be great, he could also flame out. What I wouldn't be the least bit surprised is if he turned out to be another Drew Pomeranz.

Am I justifying? Absolutely.

 

[60'sfan]

Espinoza dominated Rookie ball and the Dominican league. He was sort of getting lit up in A ball. Yes the kid is 18. Yes he could be great, he could also flame out. What I wouldn't be the least bit surprised is if he turned out to be another Drew Pomeranz.

Am I justifying? Absolutely.

I agree on Espinoza. The scouts are apparently high on him but he was struggling at Greenville Class A and although he has a good fastball, he is only 6' 160. Espinoza has no chance of helping the Sox for at least 3 years. In Pomeranz they have someone who can help right away. Potentially both Kopech and Groome may be just as good although they have "character" issues. Kopech is 6'3" 205 and has thrown at 105 and he just turned 20 in April.

 

[TitleTown]

Pomeranz is absolutely an upgrade over anything the Sox throw out there on the 4th or 5th day. No question about that. The concern with Pomeranz is, as it always has been with him, his health. He can't seem to stay off the DL. You get a few years of very cheap control so even if the Sox make more moves to upgrade their rotation, they can slide Pomeranz into the bullpen, if they have to, to try to protect his arm. $1.5M/yr for a bullpen arm is good value. But I'm talking future years - he obviously is a SP upgrade for the 2016 season if he stays healthy.

Espinoza was a VERY high price to pay to get him. A-ball or not. Kid is 18, throw upper 90s gas, has outstanding mechanics which allows him to repeat his delivery and bring very high control rate. He is the next Julio Urias in terms of young, electric arm that will generate tons of buzz as he dominates the minors. He likely won't see Petco until Pomeranz leaves Fenway in 2018 if the Friars develop him properly, like they seem to do. But the return here has the potential of being outstanding and give the Padres their next great ace since Jake Peavy. Gives them some years to properly rebuild and allow their prospects, including the long-term projects that they already got in the Kimbrel trade, time to develop properly.

Pomeranz has only been on the DL a couple times if I remember correctly. He had tendonitis in his shoulder once and he broke his hand punching a chair out of frustration one time.

 

[60'sfan]

Pomeranz has only been on the DL a couple times if I remember correctly. He had tendonitis in his shoulder once and he broke his hand punching a chair out of frustration one time.

That'll teach that chair!

 

[Towney007]

Yeah it's kind of funny - this is the first Red Sox deal in forever where I feel like the overwhelming majority have a pretty sober view of the deal.

I honestly don't hate the idea of trading Espinoza - but I just feel like he's a guy you use as a centerpiece for something bigger/better. Not a high-ish risk/high-ish reward middle of the rotation starter who might/might not help you in the short-term. They def. won't be able to flip him for for something of equal/more value in the future. Kind of a dead end move. Again I don't hate Pomeranz either. He's *exactly* the type of guy Dombrowski needed to go out and get. He just paid way, way, way too much for him.

It's just kind of hard to gage whether Pomeranz is for real or not when you look at him statistically. He's just not someone you give up a top prospect for - and certainly not an elite one for.

But they also did need to do SOMETHING. And I like what they've done, even if they've overpaid on one deal (deals of the last few weeks. Kimbrell deal was kind of bad too). That being said, Dombrowski's record of parting with prospects is pretty fantastic, so there's that too.

 

[Dooley]

Yeah it's kind of funny - this is the first Red Sox deal in forever where I feel like the overwhelming majority have a pretty sober view of the deal.

I honestly don't hate the idea of trading Espinoza - but I just feel like he's a guy you use as a centerpiece for something bigger/better. Not a high-ish risk/high-ish reward middle of the rotation starter who might/might not help you in the short-term. They def. won't be able to flip him for for something of equal/more value in the future. Kind of a dead end move. Again I don't hate Pomeranz either. He's *exactly* the type of guy Dombrowski needed to go out and get. He just paid way, way, way too much for him.

It's just kind of hard to gage whether Pomeranz is for real or not when you look at him statistically. He's just not someone you give up a top prospect for - and certainly not an elite one for.

But they also did need to do SOMETHING. And I like what they've done, even if they've overpaid on one deal (deals of the last few weeks. Kimbrell deal was kind of bad too). That being said, Dombrowski's record of parting with prospects is pretty fantastic, so there's that too.

Agree. I like them getting Pomeranz or re-acquiring Rich Hill. But not for Espinoza. To me, Espinoza should have been part of a bigger package to make a run at a Chris Sale or Sonny Gray type of pitcher. I think Pomeranz could have been had for much cheaper, which is probably the reason why the Padres jumped at the offer when they did instead of waiting closer to the deadline.

 

[Towney007]

Well, I also don't doubt Dombrowski low-balled them. You have to. I mean - this is the kind of guy you deal a dude like Chavis for. Bounce-back guy with mega-prospect potential who maybe some of the shine had worn off of.. Heck, I'd have even packaged a Chavis/Ball kind of deal for Pomeranz. Espinoza just seems... real steep.

 

[intlzncster]

Agree. I like them getting Pomeranz or re-acquiring Rich Hill. But not for Espinoza. To me, Espinoza should have been part of a bigger package to make a run at a Chris Sale or Sonny Gray type of pitcher. I think Pomeranz could have been had for much cheaper, which is probably the reason why the Padres jumped at the offer when they did instead of waiting closer to the deadline.

Last I heard, Tigers wanted Betts, Benintendi and 3-4 other prospects for Sale. hahahahahahahahahahhahhahahha!

Not in a million years.

 

[Dooley]

Last I heard, Tigers wanted Betts, Benintendi and 3-4 other prospects for Sale. hahahahahahahahahahhahhahahha!

Not in a million years.

There is zero chance of the Rojo Sox trading Betts (or Bogaerts or Bradley) if the Blanco Sox are asking for Moncada/Benintendi. There's no question that the Blancos will (and should) ask for Moncada/Benintendi in addition to other prospects. But the ship has sailed for the Rojos to deal Betts or Bogaerts. Like I proposed earlier, I still think a deal along the framework of the below could work for both sides:

Rojos get:
Sale
Frazier (whose name has been popping up a lot lately because of his money)

Blancos get:
Choice of 1 - Benintendi/Moncada
Devers
Shaw
Owens
Kopech
Groome

Done deal. If the Sox had not given away Espinoza for Pomeranz, you probably could've swapped him in.

With Sale, there is no doubt the Red Sox get into the ALDS. He wins the Wildcard play-in game 10 times out of 10. I'm not sure Price can do that.

 

[Dooley]

Last I heard, Tigers wanted Betts, Benintendi and 3-4 other prospects for Sale. hahahahahahahahahahhahhahahha!

Not in a million years.

There is zero chance of the Rojo Sox trading Betts (or Bogaerts or Bradley) if the Blanco Sox are asking for Moncada/Benintendi. There's no question that the Blancos will (and should) ask for Moncada/Benintendi in addition to other prospects. But the ship has sailed for the Rojos to deal Betts or Bogaerts. Like I proposed earlier, I still think a deal along the framework of the below could work for both sides:

Rojos get:
Sale
Frazier (whose name has been popping up a lot lately because of his money)

Blancos get:
Choice of 1 - Benintendi/Moncada
Devers
Shaw
Owens
Kopech
Groome

Done deal. If the Sox had not given away Espinoza for Pomeranz, you probably could've swapped him in.

With Sale, there is no doubt the Red Sox get into the ALDS. He wins the Wildcard play-in game 10 times out of 10. I'm not sure Price can do that.

 

[Dove]

Last I heard, Tigers wanted Betts, Benintendi and 3-4 other prospects for Sale. hahahahahahahahahahhahhahahha!

Not in a million years.

Especially since the Tigers don't have Sale.

 

[intlzncster]

Especially since the Tigers don't have Sale.

LOL. Wasn't even drunk.

 

[Towney007]

I'm not a fan of Sale at all as a long term bet. He's good now, but holy crap his mechanics are awful and getting worse. I can see him exploding by age 31....

 

[Dooley]

He's gone by age 31 season. He's only signed through his age 30 season. I mean geez, look at those low friggin' numbers. $12M for the next two seasons?!?!? That is absurd given what Ps are earning on new deals. He's cheaper than James Shields for crying out loud.

I have to be honest, I'm not a Sox fan. But I am rooting for a Sox/Cubs World Series just because I want to see those two ballparks shine in October baseball. So most of my Sale obsession comes from what I think you guys need to get to the WS and, in my opinion, this guy is it.

2016 27 $9,150,000 - $9,150,000
2017 28 $12,000,000 - $12,000,000
2018 29 $12,500,000 - $12,500,000
2019 30 $15,000,000 - $15,000,000
2020 31 UFA

 

[The Viking]

It's not that he's having a *bad* year, but Sale is having the worst year of his career as of now. It's still very good mind you - he's probably pitching like a good #2 or a #1 on a bad team. But he's not the Chris Sale of seasons past.

The Sox have done enough wheeling and dealing and still have a very good farm system with a lot of quality youth in the big leagues. I hope DD doesn't do something too crazy over the next week. Outside of Ortiz and potentially Uehara, much of this team will be back next year and we'll see if they replace Ortiz with an Encarnacion type in the middle of the order and get a quality Carson Smith for the second half of the year back from TJ surgery.

 

[60'sfan]

It's not that he's having a *bad* year, but Sale is having the worst year of his career as of now. It's still very good mind you - he's probably pitching like a good #2 or a #1 on a bad team. But he's not the Chris Sale of seasons past.

The Sox have done enough wheeling and dealing and still have a very good farm system with a lot of quality youth in the big leagues. I hope DD doesn't do something too crazy over the next week. Outside of Ortiz and potentially Uehara, much of this team will be back next year and we'll see if they replace Ortiz with an Encarnacion type in the middle of the order and get a quality Carson Smith for the second half of the year back from TJ surgery.

I think I agree with you. While it would be nice to see the Sox in the post-season with a shot at going all the way for Papi's last year, emptying the farm system for Sale would not be in the best interest of the long term. Who knows, maybe Pomeranz and ERod are solid for the rest of the year giving us a pretty good rotation. When Kimbrel and, maybe, Koji come back, the bullpen looks a lot better although another good arm would help.

 

[Husky25]

Pomeranz pitched much better last night. With a full bullpen, 2 runs over 6 innings should garner this Sox team a win on most nights.

 

[intlzncster]

Pomeranz pitched much better last night. With a full bullpen, 2 runs over 6 innings should garner this Sox team a win on most nights.

Hopefully they can get that consistently, but damn, Joe Kelly.

 

[methodology]

I'm not a fan of Sale at all as a long term bet. He's good now, but holy crap his mechanics are awful and getting worse. I can see him exploding by age 31....

I dont believe he has the inverse W in his mechanics, which is the huge red flag and leads to TJS. He has funky mechanics but that doesn't mean they are bad mechanics. I haven't spent the time to watch video of his windup and mechanics lately but I remember watching them when he came out of college and he wasn't as big of an injury risk as Strasburgh or Sonny Gray.

 

[methodology]

He's gone by age 31 season. He's only signed through his age 30 season. I mean geez, look at those low friggin' numbers. $12M for the next two seasons?!?!? That is absurd given what Ps are earning on new deals. He's cheaper than James Shields for crying out loud.

I have to be honest, I'm not a Sox fan. But I am rooting for a Sox/Cubs World Series just because I want to see those two ballparks shine in October baseball. So most of my Sale obsession comes from what I think you guys need to get to the WS and, in my opinion, this guy is it.

2016 27 $9,150,000 - $9,150,000
2017 28 $12,000,000 - $12,000,000
2018 29 $12,500,000 - $12,500,000
2019 30 $15,000,000 - $15,000,000
2020 31 UFA

Sox have the hardest schedule left in the AL East. Only have 1 off day from now til September and an overwhelming majority of their games are on the road.

O's and Blue Jays have much more favorable schedules for the remainder of the season with off days and home games.

 

[Husky25]

Red Sox Stats‏@redsoxstats
The Red Sox win rate against teams with a winning record is .552, 3rd best MLB. Against losing teams they win at .590, middle of pack 13th.

 

[Towney007]

I dont believe he has the inverse W in his mechanics, which is the huge red flag and leads to TJS. He has funky mechanics but that doesn't mean they are bad mechanics. I haven't spent the time to watch video of his windup and mechanics lately but I remember watching them when he came out of college and he wasn't as big of an injury risk as Strasburgh or Sonny Gray.

Coming out of college he was fine. If you look at him back at Fla. Gulf Coast and then at Y-D in the Cape his last summer - there's almost nothing wrong with him.

A lot of people make a lot out of his arm slot, but it's really not his arm slot. It's how he throws in that arm slot is the problem. He actually has the exact same arm slot as Mariano Rivera, but Rivera gets a lot more out of his body and motion than Sale does. His lower half is a disaster though. Flection is a mess, etc. Used to load his leg well, now he doesn't. Not as much drive in his leg, not as much knee and ankle extension. He leads inward on his motion too and it's harder to get his hips though. Basically - his motion now is almost all arm and he puts 70% more into his motion than he needs to. That's just all going to add up.

He just seems to me to be exactly the kind of guy who starts to pitch poorly and get injured almost as soon as he signs a big deal.

 

[Brochacho]

I was telling my friends that the Sox needed to go at least 7-2 on the homestand if they wanted to with the AL East. They thought I was overreacting, which I may well be since there is plenty of baseball left to be played, but the Sox are going to spend an awful lot of time away from Fenway and will be matching up against quite a few good teams. I don't think we will see these effects for the next two weeks since this road trip will definitely benefit the pitching (-86 park factor for LAA, -85 for SEA, -97 for LAD) but when its time to go to Camden Yards, Rogers Centre, etc I worry for the team. Hoping to win at least 6 on the west coast trip.