Red Sox Pitching

Discussion in 'Pro Sports (baseball, etc)' started by 60'sfan, Jun 18, 2016.

  1. 60'sfan

    60'sfan

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    The Sox pitching continues to disappoint. On the positive side, Stephen Wright has been outstanding, David Price has been solid, Rich Porcello OK. Kimbrel has been as advertised. But the rest of them have been pretty bad. Dombrowski is probably looking for some help and that is understandable but I still favor hanging on to the prospects. I would like to see them give Aaron Wilkerson a shot. Between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket he is 5-2 with a 1.91 ERA. He has 85 K's and just 22 walks in 75 innings with a WHIP of 1.01. He is was undrafted out of college and is in is third year of professional baseball. He is 27 and is not listed as a prospect although is has great stats. Could he be the next Stephen Wright?
     
  2. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    Pitching will be the reason why the Red Sox will be an early exit in the postseason (should they get there). I don't trust David Price in a one game playoff whatsoever. His postseason history speaks for itself - he's horrendous. If I'm the Sox, you do what you brought Dave Dombroski in to do: liquidate some of that deep talent pool you have in your system for major league help. Unfortunately, the Sox have too many high end prospects to trade them for the pitchers who are available on the market. Sonny Gray is probably the most intriguing because of his age, but Billy Beane is going to want Moncada or Benintendi to be included for him and the Sox can't justify trading one of their top prospects for a SP with an ERA of 5 (in the O.Co ballpark to boot!). Granted, Gray is better than what he has shown this season but the point is what it is.

    If I were the Sox, I would be checking in with the other Sox on a daily basis. While I would have a hard time parting with Moncada or Benintendi for Gray, I would not have a hard time parting with either for Chris Sale. In fact, I believe I have come up with a trade that both sides might be interested in:

    Red Sox get:
    Chris Sale
    Todd Frazier

    White Sox get:
    Choice of 1 - Moncada/Benintendi
    Travis Shaw
    Rafael Devers
    Choice of 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez/Henry Owens
    Michael Kopech

    First off, the Sox get a premier LHP SP who will win you a wildcard playoff game. Price can shift down to be the starter of Game 1 of the ALDS. Frazier is a streaky hitter but you put him at 3B where he is an above average defender and great clubhouse guy (who can absolutely mash). Is the price steep? Of course it is. You have to trade one of your jewels but you should expect that to get a guy like Sale. Sale is under contract for a few more years so you're not just getting him this year, you get to have a Sale and Price 1-2 combo for the next 2-3 years. That is huge with that lineup they will have during that same time period. Frazier is more of a rental who, shedding his remaining salary (along with getting the prospects), would entice the White Sox into trading Sale. The White Sox aren't going anywhere this year. The guys they would be getting are all in the majors now or very close. It's a quick rebuild turnaround for them and they can focus on contending again in 2018. Maybe even keep some money freed up to tap into that ginormous free agent class coming that offseason to bring in some final pieces.

    What do you Sox fans think?
     
  3. 60'sfan

    60'sfan

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    As a Red Sox fan, I would do that trade in a heartbeat. But I doubt if the White Sox would be willing to give up perhaps the best pitcher in the AL for the players you have mentioned. I think, to get their attention, you would have to willing to give up one of the B's (Betts, Bogaerts, or Bradley) and that would be a tough call. Of the players you mentioned none of them is a proven major leaguer. All of them would be a gamble for the White Sox.

    Interestingly, one player that you did not mention might be of interest to the ChiSox. Jose Abreu has said on more than one occasion that he does not understand why Rusney Castillo is not in the Red Sox outfield. Apparently they played together in Cuba. I would gladly throw him into the mix if that would help.

    The BoSox have to do something. Their best prospects are position players who are mostly redundant to the current team. To get a Chris Sale I would throw in Moncado, Benintendi, Devers and even Mauricio Dubon.
     
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  4. 60'sfan

    60'sfan

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    Disappointed that the Sox are apparently going to start Sean O'Sullivan who we know is not major league caliber as opposed to Aaron Wilkerson who seems to have some potential. What are they thinking?
     
  5. Palatine

    Palatine

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    I would wait until the off season. This team is so young that waiting doesn't hurt anything except Ortiz.

    An arm in FA makes the trade less desperate and gets you more giving up less.
     
  6. Brochacho

    Brochacho Make the Boneyard Great Again

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    There isn't really any arm that would greatly impact the Sox rotation available in the next wave of free agents. I think no matter what a trade has to be made for a TOR arm, and if Dombrowski trades any of Benintendi, Moncada, or Espinoza for Teheran I might have to find a new team to root for.
     
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  7. Danzz

    Danzz

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    The problem is that 1 pitcher isn't going to do it.
     
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  8. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    I understand that you don't want to give up prospects. And that line of thinking is fine if you are comfortable bringing in more mediocre SPs for the rotation. Here are you available SPs in the upcoming free agency class...

    C.J. Wilson SP 35 LAA $20,500,000
    Jered Weaver SP 33 LAA 94.7 5.51 6 $20,200,000
    Brett Anderson SP 28 LAD $15,800,000
    Jake Peavy SP 35 SF 4 3 .182 .399 82.7 5.34 4 $15,000,000
    Jorge De La Rosa SP 35 COL 3 3 .188 .423 55.7 5.98 5 $12,500,000
    R.A. Dickey SP 41 TOR 102.7 4.21 5 $12,000,000
    Hisashi Iwakuma SP 35 SEA 101.7 4.34 7 $11,000,000
    Edinson Volquez SP 33 KC 99.3 4.89 7 $9,500,000
    Bartolo Colon SP 43 NYM 3 2 1 .107 .357 94 2.87 7 $7,250,000
    Andrew Cashner SP 29 SD 2 1 .167 .453 53 4.76 3 $7,150,000
    Doug Fister SP 32 HOU 1 2 .333 .666 98.3 3.66 8 $7,000,000
    Jeremy Hellickson SP 29 PHI 2 2 .087 .279 99.7 4.06 6 $7,000,000
    Rich Hill SP 36 OAK 70 2.31 8 $6,000,000
    Colby Lewis SP 36 TEX 98 3.21 6 $6,000,000
    Kris Medlen SP 30 KC 24.3 7.77 1 $5,500,000
    Bronson Arroyo SP 39 WSH $4,500,000
    Ivan Nova SP 29 NYY 74.7 5.06 5 $4,100,000
    Jeremy Guthrie SP 37 MIA $3,200,000
    Tim Lincecum SP 32 LAA 13.3 6.75 1 $3,000,000
    Bud Norris SP 31 LAD 2 .143 .619 76.3 3.89 4 $2,500,000
    Kyle Lohse SP 37 TEX $2,333,333
    Alfredo Simon SP 35 CIN 1 1 .071 .259 53.3 9.45 2 $2,000,000
    Felix Doubront SP 28 OAK $2,000,000
    Jhoulys Chacin SP 28 LAA 3 1 .300 .600 79.7 5.87 3 $1,100,000
    Mat Latos SP 28 WSH 60.3 4.62 6 $507,500
    Brandon Morrow SP 31 SD $100,000
    Kyle Kendrick SP 31 LAA -
    Brad Penny SP 38 TOR -
    Ricky Romero SP 31 SF -
    Jair Jurrjens SP 30 COL -
    Aneury Rodriguez SP 28 HOU -
    Eric Stults SP 36 LAD -
    Rick VandenHurk SP 31 CLE -

    I wouldn't surrender a 1st round pick for any of these names if they are tendered.

    No. These names won't cut it. The Red Sox rotation is awful. They are in a win-now window. They need to let Dombroski do his thing, otherwise why bring him in and pay him the big bucks?? Liquidate some prospects and get a front line SP for this season.
     
  9. 60'sfan

    60'sfan

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    I agree and nice job with the available arms. The Red Sox need a top of the rotation starter and there is no one in their system that has that potential at least for several years. That leaves only the trade route if you want to make the post season while you still have Big Papi.

    Unfortunately to get someone really good, they may have to give up one of the three B's - Betts, Bogaerts or Bradley. If it were up to me, it would be JBJ. They would have to be confident that some combination of Benintendi or Swihart could fill the void. They would probably also have to give up one of the prospects - Moncado, Devers or Dubon. I've always felt that they should protect the prospects but the whole Red Sox system has become position player dominant at the expense of pitching.
     
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  10. Brochacho

    Brochacho Make the Boneyard Great Again

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    Here's what I would do: trade for Jeremy Hellickson and Ervin Santana. Both would be able to be attained for cheap, prospects outside of the top ten most likely. The Sox are only 3 games out of first in the AL East and the Orioles have just as bad of a rotation currently. Acquiring these two guys would turn the end of the rotation into at worst a mediocre bunch, rather than a train wreck. I also feel that Hellickson is the upcoming free agent pitcher who would be the most attractive to Boston, so giving him a couple of months to see how well he can pitch in Fenway would be beneficial. Would also avoid the potential loss of a draft pick. Santana is just a solid back-end starter. Due to his contract, you could probably trade Marrero and a lottery ticket type prospect to the Twins. Then again it is a weak market for SP, so value would likely be inflated for these guys. No matter what Dombroski does I think its important to keep perspective and make a move or two with the goal of winning the division, not the World Series. Keeping Moncada and Benintendi can result in a core of young hitters down the road that rivals what the Cubs have right now.
     
  11. Dream Jobbed 2.0

    Dream Jobbed 2.0 Formerly DiacosArmy

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    Travis Shaw is a dude who will hit .290 and average 25-30 homers for his career...as soon as he's traded.
     
  12. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    Agreed. The Sox need top of the rotation arms. They've attempted the death by depth approach and it has failed. Chris Sale is your answer. Sale is under modest contract control for 3 more seasons at a dirt cheap price. Here is Sale's contract: Chris Sale

    YEAR AGE BASE SALARY INCENTIVE TOTAL SALARY
    2013 24 $850,000 $15,000 $865,000
    2014 25 $3,500,000 $15,000 $3,515,000
    2015 26 $6,000,000 $15,000 $6,015,000
    2016 27 $9,150,000 - $9,150,000
    2017 28 $12,000,000 - $12,000,000
    2018 29 $12,500,000 - $12,500,000
    2019 30 $15,000,000 - $15,000,000
    2020 31 UFA


    That is the kind of insane value that clubs will kill for...including the ChiSox. They're not just going to hand over Sale. But that team is going nowhere and their system could use the type of injection that the Red Sox can give it. Their city neighbors to the north have built a prospect empire and look like they will be competitive for decades. The ChiSox don't have anywhere near that same kind of system. The Red Sox do, a Cubs lite of sorts. The Red Sox have the kind of system depth that if they traded away one of Moncada/Benintendi, one of the 3 Bs (I agree that JBJ is the best bet), and some other top 30 names, they still have a great amount of depth to survive. Not to mention, you are getting a staff anchor ace for 3 more seasons at a very affordable, dirt cheap price.

    Your choice - pay Hellickson/Santana $10-$12M/yr or pay Chris Sale $12M/yr. That choice is easy.

    I'm not a Sox fan but I even hope they make this deal. I would love to see Papi go out on top...he deserves it. Then after this season, you have Sale and Price as your rotation 1-2 anchors for 3 additional seasons. That is the kind of staff that can rival a Mets or Nats or even Cubs in potential future WS matchups.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
  13. Palatine

    Palatine

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    Yes, they need two arms.

    One in FA next off season.

    Then a trade (with the pressure off) so you make a better deal.

    If they try to get an arm during the 2016 season, they will have to over pay.
     
  14. Deepster

    Deepster

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    So you want to go get Price and Sale in about half a year? Anything else? Maybe toss in Kris Bryant or Mike Trout as a reserve?
     
  15. Excalibur

    Excalibur

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    I think the problem is that a front line SP will likely cost more than just prospects. Teams will look for young Major League-ready talent. That's a tougher call.
     
  16. Brochacho

    Brochacho Make the Boneyard Great Again

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    Red Sox winning percentage in games started by Price, Wright, or Porcello: .608
    Red Sox winning percentage in games started by #4 or #5 staters: .438

    The answer for the 2016 Red Sox isn't to overpay for a TOR arm when the position is a dire need and the trade market is scarce, but rather acquire a pitcher who could be a game 4 starter in the playoffs. I just can't accept trading any of the top four prospects or the B's for a pitcher this season.
     
  17. uconnbaseball

    uconnbaseball

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    Yeah, Price / Wright / Porcello are good enough to win with this offense but they badly need a #4 for the postseason, even if its some mediocre dude like Rodon or Pelfry. You cannot start

    The red sox and orioles will be involved in the wildcard chase all year (Toronto will brute force the division in the 2nd half, no one is keeping up with them). I suspect whichever team finds a semirespectable #4 will be the AL east's wildcard representative in the playoffs.
     
  18. Brochacho

    Brochacho Make the Boneyard Great Again

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    Problem with the guys you mentioned is that Rodon is still 23 and it would take a lot for the White Sox to move, while Pelfrey is just as bad as Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez have been. I think Hellickson would be the most reasonable arm to pursue. He's an impending free agent so his price tag would be lower, has experience pitching in AL East and has fared well in the bandbox the Phillies call home, and has a very respectable 3.78 ERA vs the AL this season. That ERA stems from three starts against Toronto, Kansas City, and Detroit; 3 teams Boston will be fighting with to make the postseason. I also think Hellickson is the best match for the Sox for free agent arms next winter, so a 2-3 month audition could be useful.
     
  19. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    Stop being obtuse. Price was a free agent. Sale would be via trade. Both can be accomplished. Dombroski was brought in to liquidate prospects, make no mistake. He doesn't have the attachment to them like Cherington and others did. Plus, he has a track record of making big deals using prospects (he traded for David Price and Miggy Cabs in Detroit).

    You are fooling yourself if you think this pitching staff is playoff caliber. It's not. Price himself has a horrendous track record in the postseason. He's your ace; your wildcard 1-game playoff game starter. And even if the offense propels Boston through the wildcard 1 game playoff game, does anyone get the warm fuzzies rolling Wright or Porcello out there in Game 1 of the ALDS?? Good Lord, I hope not. There's a fine line between homerism and stupidity.
     
  20. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    Possibly. In my original proposed deal, I have Shaw and ERod/Owens going to Chicago. The 3 Bs are protected since I am willing to include Moncada/Benintendi (their choice of 1) and Kopech and Devers. If the ChiSox preferred Espinosa to Kopech, then fine. Also every bit as important: the Red Sox will need to agree to take on every penny of Sale's and Frazier's remaining money owed. Sale is not a tough sell.

    I think Shaw is a forgotten commodity of sorts. I obviously have no idea how much other MLB teams value him. But to me, given a full season at-bats, he has .280 25HR 90RBI potential in a neutral park. Put him at the Cell, those numbers go up into the .285-.290 30HR 100RBI range. Again, that's just my opinion. Chicago could do MUCH worse finding a permanent solution at 3B for Frazier or even 1B for Abreu than Travis Shaw. Their own Matt Davidson seems to go through too much roller coaster production spells to make for a steady, everyday corner INF at the MLB level.
     
  21. Brochacho

    Brochacho Make the Boneyard Great Again

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    Hate Espinoza for Pomeranz.
     
  22. Towney007

    Towney007

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    Yeah I don't like this deal that much either. And I don't HATE the idea of trading Espinoza and I also think the TYPE of pitcher the Sox got was what they should have been chasing... but these two just don't match up.

    Thing with Pomeranz is he's added his cutter and that's helped him succeed, but all of that has been based on his ability to get swings out of the zone. That's basically an adjustment to lay off and he might go back to being what he was. His z-contact% is basically exactly what it's been his whole career. Is his success sustainable? I guess it could be, but not something I'm willing to make a big bet on. Flip side to Pomeranz is that he's a good pitcher and he's controllable. Could be a guy who could be a #2 type guy, and the downside is a back end guy you control who still has some upside left in him. He's exactly what the doctor ordered in a way. He's a good enough bet to be good without going overboard on a deal to get a guy to improve a team that i'm not 100% sure is worth going for broke with yet.

    But Espinoza, man. Yikes. I mean I get the whole 'he's a prospect' thing; and a pitching prospect at that and especially in Boston's case, we've seen a lot of good pitchers flame out in that system. But he's not JUST a prospect. I mean at least as far as the low minors are concerned, he literally might be the best pitcher *by far*. Scouts literally are in love with him. I think it's stupid to say he's going to be historically great or anything, and the Pedro comps make me roll my eyes, but he's definitely going to be a GOOD major league pitcher. This is NOT a lottery ticket. He's a difference maker. Outside of Julio Urias, I like him more than anyone else in the minors right now, or at least I feel the best about him being something significant someday.

    He's more of the type of guy you trade for a major piece - like a Fernandez or a Gray or Sale. Not a risky guy who more than likely helps you. Even in the short term, this is insanely risky. His innings peak has been 88IP, so at 102IP, we're already in deep water with him and i'm not sure he'll have the bullets in the chamber the Sox will need him to have in the playoffs.

    So like I said, I don't hate the idea of trading Espinoza, and I don't dislike Pomeranz. I think he's more real than mirage right now. But you're not exactly maximizing your prospect's value in a deal like this. Even if you have to overpay to get him, I feel like there's other deals you can make that don't require going this far into the deep end to get done.
     
  23. Dooley

    Dooley Driving the bus straight off the cliff

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    Outstanding trade for the Friars. Don't get me wrong, Pomeranz slides in nicely as a middle of the rotation guy and should give some quality innings if he stays healthy. But man, I feel like the Padres could not have possibly done one fraction better in dealing away Pomeranz. My opinion is that Espinoza brings the potential of giving the Padres their next Jake Peavy (before he started getting hurt). This will set the bar high for other teams who want to sell.
     
  24. Husky25

    Husky25 Dink & Dunk beat the Greatest Show on Turf.

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    I don't hate the idea of trading Espinoza. The Sox have Kopech and just signed Jason Groome, who could have been the #1 pick in the draft if not for his bonus demands.

    Espinoza is rated one of the top prospects in baseball, but the fact is (disregarding his age) Espinoza is still a wild card. He was in Greenville (low single A ball), with a 4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 9.5 hits/9 innings. It's tough to go on record (5-8) because the Sox development strategy was to keep him to 4IP/G. If he were in Portland, I'd have a different opinion and hate to give up on him, but he was "struggling" in A ball. I know the Sox compare Espinoza to Petey (Isn't it fun how teams always project their prospects as Hall of Famers before they get to the weed out levels), but Martinez was already mowin'em down in AAA by his age. Regardless of whether you believe the hype or not, Espinoza alone was not getting you Sale or Gray, and I would have hated an Espinoza for Rich Hill deal, who is 36 and a free agent at the end of the year.

    Now, what did the Sox get? Before I realized that Pomeranz is already 25% over his most IP in a season, I loved the deal. He's an All-Star (and not by the every-team-needed-to-be-represented default either. Will Myers was SD's All-Star) LHP who the Sox have under their control for 2 more years after 2016. He is in his prime of his career and while he "figured it out" this year, it didn't "just click," so to speak. There is a reason for his success: He developed an effective cutter and regained confidence in his curve. Had it been done with mirrors, I'd be more concerned. The workload still concerns me but not enough to hate the trade.

    The other reason I like this trade is the freight payers won't abide a 4th last place finish in 5 seasons and a playoff appearance in Papi's farewell season is sold platinum to the Sox' marketing machine. Dombowski did what he was hired to do, and backfilled Greenville with an 18 year old who is potentially better than Espinoza in the process.

    Overall, I think it was a good move for Boston.
     
  25. TitleTown

    TitleTown

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    I agree that it was a good move by the Sox but I too am a bit worried. The fact that he has already had one shoulder surgery is worrisome, the fact that prior to this year he has never pitched more than 962/3 innings is worrisome, the fact that he is going from the NL to AL is worrisome, the fact that he is a lefty and going to have to pitch half his games in Fenway Park is worrisome, and the fact that he walks batters to the tune of 3.8/9 over his career is worrisome, With that being said if he can continue to use his cutter effectively and Farrell can limit his innings, I think Pomeranz can really help sure up the rotation.