OT: Realignment?

[CL82]

Take off your blue tinted glasses. UConn football is the laughing stock of FBS level and has been for a decade. Kansas has at least been able to bring in big time brand name coaches, and while it didn’t work out it shows they are serious about trying to keep their football program alive.

UConn hasn’t been unable to field a competitive team in 5 years and have a disinterested fan base as a result. In that same time span we saw teams from our bad conference win NY6 bowl games, proving its possible to field a good team behind good coaches in a group of 5 league if the team has any brand recognition whatsoever, which UConn football does not.

While UConn has a great market in the highly populated northeast and national basketball following, UConn college football is far down the lists in the general populations sports interests. Meanwhile the 5 million hillbillies in West Virginia have nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon than tune up their antenna televisions with a bottle of shine right off the still and cheer for the mountaineers. That moonshine money is way more appealing to the ACC or the Big10 than the 5 middle aged dudes drinking Sam adams and grilling gourmet burgers in blue lot outside their f150.

During the last round of realignments the word was that “UConn will always be there if/when we expand again”. Unfortunately UConn didn’t make any competent effort to make themselves a front runner when it has finally come time for the realignment to restart. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see what UConn has done since the last round of realignment to leapfrog schools like WVU or Kansas in the eyes of the ACC or Big10.

And yet UConn is drawing interest from P5 football schools for home and homes. Why?

And CBS Sports net gave Connecticut a deal to broadcast all of its home games. Why?

Oh well, I’m sure you’re right and people who make a living thinking about the stuff are wrong. I’m certainly not saying that Connecticut is the top of the list and interest for college football, it’s clearly not, yet, there is value there.

And that is before we even consider the brain value Connecticut has for basketball, both men’s and women’s.

 

[Brochacho]

Why would Clemson agree to that if it means splitting their tv deal with another member. Adding WVU wont add to the tv deal.

Personally, I don't think the B10 or ACC expand again unless ND decides to join a conference. There's no available teams that make them more money. I just like to speculate because that's 80% of the fun with realignment, right?

 

[djct1999]

The 12 team playoff is going to be awesome. Every year it will be Ohio State, USC, ND, Clemson, and 8 SEC schools. Can't wait.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is the point I am trying to hammer home on how realignment works today

The Big 12 followed this exact strategy. How did it work out for them?

 

[McLovin]

Oh, so now we are saying schools are "great additions" based on "best fan bases".

What a joke.

Ummmm yes. Did the SEC add Texas because they have been a .500 football team the past decade or because they have one of the best fan bases in CFB? Fan bases = money. All that matters is money. WVU would add more eyeballs to the Big10 or ACC product than the bottom tier of either conference currently bring them.

Would ESPN rather show WVU vs Pittsburgh in primetime or Wake Forrest vs Pittsburgh? Would FOX rather show WVU vs Penn State or Illinois vs Penn State? WVU totally increases the interest level in any match-up they get put into which means more eyeballs, which means more money for the league to get next time media contracts are negotiated.

 

[Brochacho]

The Big 12 followed this exact strategy. How did it work out for them?

What school would ever consider leaving the Big Ten?

 

[djct1999]

Ummmm yes. Did the SEC add Texas because they have been a .500 football team the past decade or because they have one of the best fan bases in CFB? Fan bases = money. All that matters is money. WVU would add more eyeballs to the Big10 or ACC product than the bottom tier of either conference currently bring them.

Would ESPN rather show WVU vs Pittsburgh in primetime or Wake Forrest vs Pittsburgh? Would FOX rather show WVU vs Penn State or Illinois vs Penn State? WVU totally increases the interest level in any match-up they get put into which means more eyeballs, which means more money for the league to get next time media contracts are negotiated.

I think the answer is neither. ESPN will instead show UT vs Auburn. Or Oklahoma vs Florida. I suspect you can watch the WVU game over on ESPN+. Maybe meet up with the guy in the shirt and watch it on your phone.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What school would ever consider leaving the Big Ten?

In any other industry, once one competitor starts acquiring companies, everyone else has to do the same thing. For some reason college sports think that they play by a different set of economics from every other industry.

 

[djct1999]

In any other industry, once one competitor starts acquiring companies, everyone else has to do the same thing. For some reason college sports think that they play by a different set of economics from every other industry.

Tv is a different beast. Ohio State could potentially earn more as an independent than by the Big 10 adding WVU.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ummmm yes. Did the SEC add Texas because they have been a .500 football team the past decade or because they have one of the best fan bases in CFB? Fan bases = money. All that matters is money. WVU would add more eyeballs to the Big10 or ACC product than the bottom tier of either conference currently bring them.

Would ESPN rather show WVU vs Pittsburgh in primetime or Wake Forrest vs Pittsburgh? Would FOX rather show WVU vs Penn State or Illinois vs Penn State? WVU totally increases the interest level in any match-up they get put into which means more eyeballs, which means more money for the league to get next time media contracts are negotiated.

I am sure all those Mountaineer fans are paying up for broadband and streaming services. ESPN+ is going to be super-excited to average 30 West Virginia IP addresses per paid account in that state.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tv is a different beast. Ohio State could potentially earn more as an independent than by the Big 10 adding WVU.

Change the revenue split if that is what it takes, but in a scale business like conferences, they need a bigger market footprint. The SEC just told them that.

 

[McLovin]

And yet UConn is drawing interest from P5 football schools for home and homes. Why?

And CBS Sports net gConnecticut a deal to broadcast all of its home games. Why?

Oh well, I’m sure you’re right and people who make a living thinking about the stuff are wrong. I’m certainly not saying that Connecticut is the top of the list and interest for college football, it’s clearly not, yet, there is value there.

And that is before we even consider the brain value Connecticut has for basketball, both men’s and women’s.

Our football media contract we were able to get as an independent with those P5 schools already on the schedule is $1M per year, according to the people who make a living thinking about that stuff. Why would any conference add UConn and have to give them $35 million per year for a football product worth only $1 million?

Sure, an argument could be made that UConn in the Big10 or ACC would get more people in CT interested in UConn football. But that would mean that UConn is benefitting from the conference name and not the conference benefitting from UConn's name. These leagues only want to extend invites to schools that add to the payout the league can get from media rights, not suck money away from the brand names (Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Florida State) who are generating most of the revenue.

 

[djct1999]

Change the revenue split if that is what it takes, but in a scale business like conferences, they need a bigger market footprint. The SEC just told them that.

So the Big 10 should "acquire" USC and UVA and call it a day. You dont necessarily scale a business by adding dead weight.

 

[Matrim55]

This is the point I am trying to hammer home on how realignment works today

This is partially correct and partially wrong. The correct part is that yes, it's not 2011. The wrong part is that no, it's not 2018.

It's 2021, the age of streaming, and value will be driven by any entity that can bring a large, dedicated fanbase. I work in sports media and know for a fact that the NWSL has driven massive subs for Paramount+. That is a niche fanbase, but it is hardcore. Which is the same as as KU hoops.

Don't forget the TV deal, of course. But you absolutely need to remember the streaming component for this era we're entering into. Rock solid, dedicated fanbases are worth their weight in literal gold.

 

[tzznandrew]

West Virginia doesn't have that much leverage. They're not some super-large fan base and their football isn't nearly as good as its being made to seem. Yes, their football is better than Kansas, but it's certainly mid-to-lower tier in the B12. They've never won the league, and their finishes:

8
8
5
5
3
5
4
7
7

They finished the year ranked only twice. They aren't going to the B10 or SEC. I doubt the ACC cares about adding them.

 

[djct1999]

This is partially correct and partially wrong. The correct part is that yes, it's not 2011. The wrong part is that no, it's not 2018.

It's 2021, the age of streaming, and value will be driven by any entity that can bring a large, dedicated fanbase. I work in sports media and know for a fact that the NWSL has driven massive subs for Paramount+. That is a niche fanbase, but it is hardcore. Which is the same as as KU hoops.

Don't forget the TV deal, of course. But you absolutely need to remember the streaming component for this era we're entering into. Rock solid, dedicated fanbases are worth their weight in literal gold.

any chance apple buys viacom? oops, wrong thread.

 

[Jbirdp5]

This is the point I am trying to hammer home on how realignment works today

This is such a good point. Bigger is not always better lol.

 

[MJ1]

Big 10 will move to 16 teams looking to add Virginia from ACC and possibly Kansas from Big 12. It just keeps getting crazier.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So the Big 10 should "acquire" USC and UVA and call it a day. You dont necessarily scale a business by adding dead weight.

How did that work for the Big 12?

Bigger is better. Cover more markets, have more fans that want to sign up, more advertisers, more content. It is better. There needs to be some coherence to what they are doing, and I could see adding far flung LA schools as a negative.

Or they can sit on their butt and watch the SEC become the P1. Those are their two options.

 

[Jbirdp5]

Big 10 will move to 16 teams looking to add Virginia from ACC and possibly Kansas from Big 12. It just keeps getting crazier.

What happened to the ACC having a grant of rights? I thought that meant that even if someone left the conference the conference still owned their media rights so to speak?

 

[Jbirdp5]

How did that work for the Big 12?

Bigger is better. Cover more markets, have more fans that want to sign up, more advertisers, more content. It is better. There needs to be some coherence to what they are doing, and I could see adding far flung LA schools as a negative.

Or they can sit on their butt and watch the SEC become the P1. Those are their two options.

Very simplistic view on things. They need to add value that’s why the big 12 didn’t expand, they would have added others if it brought value to the league. In your argument your making it seem like if they had added Cincinnati and Memphis or whoever Texas and Oklahoma would no longer be looking for a new home which I think you would even admit is not true.

 

[MJ1]

Correct, The Big 12 also has grant of rights. Texas and Oklahoma are going to announce soon but not move until 2025 it appears. Will see. Fun to speculate never the less.

 

[Slasher]

Definitely think WVU is being overvalued. It's a tiny state, entire state smaller than the metro population of Cincinnati for example. Remember, cable subscriptions still matter for the ACC as they have their own branded network. Yes, streaming will matter more in the future, but WVA is losing population YOY, have much higher than average poverty compared to surrounding states, and their biggest market is really outside of their state (Pittsburgh) and that's already covered by the ACC / ACC Network with Pitt. I think Kansas has the best shot of landing in power conference of any of the leftovers.

 

[djct1999]

How did that work for the Big 12?

Bigger is better. Cover more markets, have more fans that want to sign up, more advertisers, more content. It is better. There needs to be some coherence to what they are doing, and I could see adding far flung LA schools as a negative.

Or they can sit on their butt and watch the SEC become the P1. Those are their two options.

Coherence like Wvu joining the big 12 or bc joining the acc? There are a lot of generalizations in your post. One that doesn’t matter is geography. The second, the sec no matter what will always be p1.

fact is, only usc and nd move the needle. No other school adds value.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Very simplistic view on things. They need to add value that’s why the big 12 didn’t expand, they would have added others if it brought value to the league. In your argument your making it seem like if they had added Cincinnati and Memphis or whoever Texas and Oklahoma would no longer be looking for a new home which I think you would even admit is not true.

The Big 12's decisions resulted in catastrophic failure for those schools. So I would be careful about using it as justification for anything.