Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 9 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

RuffRuff said:
CBS graphic off HS's link, after he called me out for having ADHD.
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Then that’s absolutely the ideal outcome with a Vandy or Virginia type as the 4 seed.
 
jibsey said:
Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
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Beat st johns Wednesday and make final iit to big east tournament final might be enough to get the last one seed. Big 12 and big 10 tough path and more loses to come. Florida likeky to move to 2 the 2 line as they dominate the sec.
 
From the NCAA website they say these are the metrics they use to evaluate teams:
As of Friday I think:
BPI 11
Kenpom 13
KPI 6
NET 10
SOR 4
Torvik 9
WAB 4

As of today:
BPI 11
Kenpom 11 (O 23/D 12)
KPI 4
NET 10
SOR 4
Torvik 9
WAB 4
 
For reference here is STJ.
BPI 15
Kenpom 22 (O 45/D 15)
KPI 16
NET 23
SOR 19
Torvik 19
WAB 21
 
jibsey said:
Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
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They'll have the seeds largely configured before Saturday night at the BET.

If UConn makes it to that Saturday night without losing, they'll be "pencilled" into the first four.

Iowa St or Houston would need to win the B12 tourney, which will be quite a task since Arizona, BYU and Kansas will have their say (not to mention the B12 teams who will be desperate to win the tourney), and UConn would need to lose to St. John's.
 
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I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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ISU lost at BYU
AZ beat Houston in Houston
UCLA beat Illinois (not that Illinois really had a shot)

If either ISU or Houston won, they'd have be really well positioned to hold onto the 1 with a quality win.
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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After the Creighton loss and before the Nova win the actual committee said we were #5 on the S-curve, so we were right on the fringe and the team directly in front of us lost yesterday along with a good win for us
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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If you were confused, it was because you read the Boneyard too much. The loss moved us back to being the #5 team in the country in the Committee’s view. There is no interpretation of the English language that makes that “pretty far out” from a one seed with 2.5 weeks left in the regular season and then the conference tournaments. I think we need more than one loss for the 1 through 3 teams for us to catch any of them. But we could easily drop in and out of the 4 slot with Houston and ISU.
 
businesslawyer said:
If you were confused, it was because you read the Boneyard too much. The loss moved us back to being the #5 team in the country in the Committee’s view. There is no interpretation of the English language that makes that “pretty far out” from a one seed with 2.5 weeks left in the regular season and then the conference tournaments. I think we need more than one loss for the 1 through 3 teams for us to catch any of them. But we could easily drop in and out of the 4 slot with Houston and ISU.
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I just assumed the Creighton game was more damaging than it was. But I know a bunch of the fringe teams lost too.
 
I don’t think any of these teams want to see us in their bracket in a tournament where holding offensive players is called.

Our team/approach is not built for the way the big east is reffed.
 
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BGesus4 said:
I don’t think any of these teams want to see us in their bracket in a tournament where holding offensive players is called.

Our team/approach is not built for the way the big east is reffed.
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Do we know which region those refs are? I feel like the West always does us right? What region have we not won in?

4 West
1 South
1 East???

We’re just missing the Midwest? Likely never gonna happen.
 
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bendm said:
Did you create this? That’s what I was hoping for but @auror said ISU would be in the Midwest and Houston would be south based on geographic preference among teams on the same seed line. Not sure if you bothered to read that back and forth…
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ISU would be in the Midwest specifically if they are the top 2 seed (or higher than any other team that wants to go there). I honestly have no idea how CBS/they decided on those regions for the 2 seeds. That wouldn't be the geographical preference for ANY of those teams, but then it also doesn't seem to be in reverse s-curve. Maybe they had to jimmy some stuff around for later, but impossible to really follow without knowing their actual s-curve.
 
auror said:
ISU would be in the Midwest specifically if they are the top 2 seed (or higher than any other team that wants to go there)
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And any 2 potential seed that would want to go there (Illinois or Purdue) couldn’t because they’re in the same conference as UM which is gonna the 1 seed in the Midwest.
 
bendm said:
And any 2 potential seed that would want to go there (Illinois or Purdue) couldn’t because they’re in the same conference as UM which is gonna the 1 seed in the Midwest.
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Yes, bingo. Would take someone like Kansas moving ahead of them or someone passing Michigan, or yeah necessary swapping due to so many Big Tena and Big 12 teams cluttering up the top 4 lines.
 
RuffRuff said:
Do we know which region those refs are? I feel like the West always does us right? What region have we not won in?

4 West
1 South
1 East???

We’re just missing the Midwest? Likely never gonna happen.
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Pretty sure they just have a different mandate for the tournament or are just more stringent with all the eyeballs.

Calhoun said he would always have a while set of plays and defenses that he would take out after Big East season because he knew they wouldn’t fly in the tournament
 
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BGesus4 said:
Pretty sure they just have a different mandate for the tournament or are just more stringent with all the eyeballs.

Calhoun said he would always have a while set of plays and defenses that he would take out after Big East season because he knew they wouldn’t fly in the tournament
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Interesting.
 
If we all heard the NCAA right, beat the Johnies on Wednesday and perhaps even just a second place position in the BET...we are a 1 seed.
 
businesslawyer said:
In no one’s world is ignorance a strength.

You realize that Iowa State’s win against Houston and our loss to Creighton HAD ALREADY HAPPENED at the time time these rankings were made, right? Iowa State may still be ahead of us as of this morning, but logic please.
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Look at that. Even though today’s coaches poll came out after the reveal, Iowa State jumped UConn despite UConn defeating Villanova and Iowa State losing at BYU.
 
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FreeDogs said:
If we all heard the NCAA right, beat the Johnies on Wednesday and perhaps even just a second place position in the BET...we are a 1 seed.
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Correct. I find that BECG to be so late in the process, its unlikely to change much. It always feels like they have most of it penciled in by then.

The significant games to be played:

StJ/UConn - Wed
Houston/Kansas - Tonight
Iowa St/AZ - next week
UM/Illinois - this weekend

I'd say if we lost to StJ and any one of Houston/ISU/Illinois wins these games, while also generally winning out, they could be in line to snatch that last 1. Houston loses tonight, I think you can officially put a line through them as a 1 seed given the lack of quality high level wins.
 
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JungleLobo said:
Look at that. Even though today’s coaches poll came out after the reveal, Iowa State jumped UConn despite UConn defeating Villanova and Iowa State losing at BYU.
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And once the Committee has its first reveal, the reason to care about is the polls would be …?
 
businesslawyer said:
And once the Committee has its first reveal, the reason to care about is the polls would be …?
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Any chance you see how they were adding up the poll aggregate across the top 4 seeds in the region and if they exceeded a certain number, they'd flip a seed out with a lower ranked seed in another region to make sure it stays within a span? That was interesting.
 
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RuffRuff said:
Any chance you see how they were adding up the poll aggregate across the top 4 seeds in the region and if they exceeded a certain number, they'd flip a seed out with a lower ranked seed in another region to make sure it stays within a span? That was interesting.
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It is interesting, but they're not using the AP Poll numbers for that. It's the committee's seeding on the S-curve they're adding up
 
RuffRuff said:
Any chance you see how they were adding up the poll aggregate across the top 4 seeds in the region and if they exceeded a certain number, they'd flip a seed out with a lower ranked seed in another region to make sure it stays within a span? That was interesting.
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I didn’t see the reveal show, and I missed that statement. Normally they start with the S Curve, and make changes to avoid conference match ups and, rarely but not never, for geography. So the statement quoted here surprised me, just because I think the last few years they’ve been slow to deviate from the curve other than to avoid conference match ups.
 
I've been holding this grudge for a long time, but in 1998 we were 5 or 6 on the s-curve (I'm not sure they released it back then) and they gave us the 2 seed with UNC, who was the No. 1 overall seed. The reason they gave was that UConn was in the east so should be in the east bracket -- geography. And the game was played in, naturally, North Carolina.

I should probably get over this one.
 
Inyatkin said:
I've been holding this grudge for a long time, but in 1998 we were 5 or 6 on the s-curve (I'm not sure they released it back then) and they gave us the 2 seed with UNC, who was the No. 1 overall seed. The reason they gave was that UConn was in the east so should be in the east bracket -- geography. And the game was played in, naturally, North Carolina.

I should probably get over this one.
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this is the annoying thing about giving geographic preference to 2 seeds. invaribaly the top teams are mostly concentrated in the east (though there is more diaspora this year)...which means the top two teams in the east get f-ed.

It's not surprise Uconn has had success out west.
 
Inyatkin said:
I've been holding this grudge for a long time, but in 1998 we were 5 or 6 on the s-curve (I'm not sure they released it back then) and they gave us the 2 seed with UNC, who was the No. 1 overall seed. The reason they gave was that UConn was in the east so should be in the east bracket -- geography. And the game was played in, naturally, North Carolina.

I should probably get over this one.
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No you shouldn't.
 
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