Questions for Stat Geeks

[Waquoit]

How the hell can Texas be 21 games over .500 yet only have a run differential of +1? What does that say about their postseason chances? Is it fair to call them lucky?

 

[mauconnfan]

It tells me if you're playing them be sure it's not a 1 run game.

 

[Deadrody]

How the hell can Texas be 21 games over .500 yet only have a run differential of +1? What does that say about their postseason chances? Is it fair to call them lucky?

Without a doubt. Their pythagorean predicted record would be just 63-62. They're 27-5 in one run games, which is almost pure luck. Elias did a study a while back that said there isn't much to explain your record in 1 run games and you're just as likely to go up as down from one year to the next.

Plus, they've gotten blown out by 5 or more runs a dozen times. Injuries have been a factor and they have a handful of pitchers that have fallen on their sword in relief and been horrid.