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PT: Covid positivity rate drops below 5% nationally.

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huskypantz

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If I’m understanding the vaccine correctly, it neither prevents transmission of the virus, nor does it prevent one from getting it.

My understanding is that it reduces the symptoms, so that people who get the virus will almost certainly not die.

So at the end of the day, what will happen with vaccination will be speeded up (and safer) herd immunity, not prevention.
Still much to come. What it does do is almost eliminates the chance of death and greatly reduces the chance of hospitalization. The speculation is around viral load. If you still get infected but end up with a low viral load (because your AB's are working hard immediately) then the chance that you pass it on should decrease dramatically. Now that's a hypothesis since we don't have studies yet but it's consistent with the science around viral load and coronavirus.
 

huskypantz

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My HS Junior at Cromwell High just went back today to full in person, excluding those that have opted to remain at home. We'll see how it goes.
Our district just announced that we're going from 50% in person to full in person on 4/5. Can't wait.
 
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7 day averages for cases and deaths appeared to plateau starting about a week ago. im hoping we see the same large drop we saw last spring. I can’t believe it’s been a year.
 
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One of the most promising things I continue to read is that the vaccines continue to test very positively in reducing the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death. The WSJ this morning had an article that England is initiating vaccines 12 weeks apart and a comprehensive study indicates that the initial dose is very effective in this regard.

I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

I'm a half full guy, but a realist. I think we're heading for something more normal over the next several months. I can't wait to get the vaccine, but will wait my turn.
 

huskypantz

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One of the most promising things I continue to read is that the vaccines continue to test very positively in reducing the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death. The WSJ this morning had an article that England is initiating vaccines 12 weeks apart and a comprehensive study indicates that the initial dose is very effective in this regard.

I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

I'm a half full guy, but a realist. I think we're heading for something more normal over the next several months. I can't wait to get the vaccine, but will wait my turn.
We’re not at zero cases/transmissions for the flu and we have annual vaccinations. If we can get to similar numbers we need to call it a win and move on.
 
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I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

Couple of things. First, the vaccines are working well in South Africa (huge drop in cases and deaths, South Africa Coronavirus: 1,513,959 Cases and 50,077 Deaths - Worldometer) which would seem to be elegant proof they work against the South African variant. The same is true of the vaccine in the UK against the UK variant.

Second, we haven't gotten to absolute zero against the flu. It's not realistic to expect to get to absolute zero against Covid-19. But if behaves like other Covid viruses, the vaccine will be successful in eliminating the health crisis.

So I'm a glass three quarters full guy.
 
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To be clear, I'm not advocating zero transmittance as a goal. My concern is that as a society we get overly fixated on that, which I believe would be a mistake.

I was hoping we would go to something like England with longer intervals between the first and second inoculations so that we can get initial doses in folks much faster.
 
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The science would agree that prioritizing older Americans will have the biggest effect on the overall infection and death rates. Adults 65 and older account for 16% of the US population but 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the US.

The USA population is around 340 million people. 16% of that means about 55 million people are 65 or older. We have already administered 60 million plus doses. 6% of the population is fully vaccinated. If we maintain that pace and priority, meaningful drops in infections and deaths should happen in weeks not months.
What’s not getting reported for some reason is that of the 80% of those over 65 that have succumbed to COVID, half were smokers or former smokers. What’s also not being done is including smokers or former smokers with other high risk groups, then you have people coming out of the woodwork arguing that otherwise healthy people over 65 who were smokers or former smokers and who died of COVID should NOT be included with other high risk groups such as diabetics, hbp, heart ailment, or some other chronic affliction.
 
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What’s not getting reported for some reason is that of the 80% of those over 65 that have succumbed to COVID, half were smokers or former smokers. What’s also not being done is including smokers or former smokers with other high risk groups, then you have people coming out of the woodwork arguing that otherwise healthy people over 65 who were smokers or former smokers and who died of COVID should NOT be included with other high risk groups such as diabetics, hbp, heart ailment, or some other chronic affliction.

I'm not sure where you are going with this.
 

Bomber36

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i take it you did not read the article or understand the point, but the area of agreement is things are trending in right direction.

all that to the side, the challenge will be with the onset of flu season at end of year
 

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Beginning Friday, April 2, 2021

Outdoor amusement parks can open
Outdoor event venues can increase to a 50% capacity, capped at 10,000 people <---hello Football
Indoor stadiums can open at 10% capacity
Summer camps and summer festivals are advised to begin the planning stages to open for the upcoming season
 

Fairfield_1st

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Beginning Friday, April 2, 2021

Outdoor amusement parks can open
Outdoor event venues can increase to a 50% capacity, capped at 10,000 people <---hello Football
Indoor stadiums can open at 10% capacity
Summer camps and summer festivals are advised to begin the planning stages to open for the upcoming season
Can I use the bathroom at the Goodwill store yet? They said they closed them due to the virus rules, but I can go in the one next door at the Stop & Shop. Weird.
 

Husky25

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Can I use the bathroom at the Goodwill store yet? They said they closed them due to the virus rules, but I can go in the one next door at the Stop & Shop. Weird.
As a private business, they don't need a reason to close their bathrooms to the public.

What is so special about the restroom at Goodwill? Heated seat?
 
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Can I use the bathroom at the Goodwill store yet? They said they closed them due to the virus rules, but I can go in the one next door at the Stop & Shop. Weird.
You could also go around to the rear of Stop & Shop and go in the woods.
 

huskypantz

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Can I use the bathroom at the Goodwill store yet? They said they closed them due to the virus rules, but I can go in the one next door at the Stop & Shop. Weird.
My local McDonald's doesn't allow people in the restaurant. They don;t need to - their drive through business is insane and they are saving on the labor associated to cleaning the customer area and bathroom. You can call it covid but it's really just a business decision at this point.
 

huskypantz

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Interesting and very positive (pardon the pun) anecdote. My kids' school is doing pooled covid testing. It's a weekly testing program that tests all kids who participate. Over 900 kids are enrolled and so far not one positive case. The overall 7 day average positive rate in MA is 1.66%.
 
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Interesting and very positive (pardon the pun) anecdote. My kids' school is doing pooled covid testing. It's a weekly testing program that tests all kids who participate. Over 900 kids are enrolled and so far not one positive case. The overall 7 day average positive rate in MA is 1.66%.

My wife teaches in West Haven - last Thursday they had 15 teachers out, multiple busses and classrooms quarantined (again), and were remote on Friday. They are back in today, but it as been a clown show of sporadic closures / quarantines. Still better to try than to stay remote, but anyone that says it doesn't spread in the schools is either not living in reality or living in places where everyone has money and can manage social distancing better.

Getting the teachers vaccinated by the end of March will be HUGE!
 

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My wife teaches in West Haven - last Thursday they had 15 teachers out, multiple busses and classrooms quarantined (again), and were remote on Friday. They are back in today, but it as been a clown show of sporadic closures / quarantines. Still better to try than to stay remote, but anyone that says it doesn't spread in the schools is either not living in reality or living in places where everyone has money and can manage social distancing better.

Getting the teachers vaccinated by the end of March will be HUGE!
We've had many bumps with similar scenarios. Several times 1/2 the grade went remote for a day or sometimes a week. Overall though our middle school has probably averaged about 90% live instruction (for those opted in for full time live instruction) with some kids caught up in multiple outbreaks leading to about 80% live days obtained and some kids lucky enough to never experience an outbreak within their cohort. The other thing, the in school transmission has been astonishingly low. Kid to kid transfer almost never happens. The vast majority of the time it came from travel team sports and/or family and none of the kids exposed at school actually test positive.
 
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In a southern state. Daughter has been is person since August except for a couple of days. There have been a handful of cases throughout the school with none being traced to in-school activity. Most if not all were caused by family travel and a couple of sports teams. I am happy my daughter had a “normal” senior year. Contrary to popular belief, the lack of a mask mandate was not a major issue as most people are wearing masks. Restaurants have also not had a traceable impact on are cases. Businesses figured out how to do things correctly and if they didn’t people were quick show dissatisfaction.
I am hoping that we are nearing the end of the pandemic. The longer those supposed variant increases take to happen the more people get vaccines.
 

Chin Diesel

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In a southern state. Daughter has been is person since August except for a couple of days. There have been a handful of cases throughout the school with none being traced to in-school activity. Most if not all were caused by family travel and a couple of sports teams. I am happy my daughter had a “normal” senior year. Contrary to popular belief, the lack of a mask mandate was not a major issue as most people are wearing masks. Restaurants have also not had a traceable impact on are cases. Businesses figured out how to do things correctly and if they didn’t people were quick show dissatisfaction.
I am hoping that we are nearing the end of the pandemic. The longer those supposed variant increases take to happen the more people get vaccines.

Similar.
Kids have been in school all year. Biggest outbreak of the students came in early November and was traced to some Halloween parties.
First half of the year the kids had to carry a plastic shield to put up around their desks. That went away in January. A few teachers and staff have come down the 'rona but nothing serious.
I've been to plenty of restaurants and bars with outside seating and a few with inside seating where spacing out was not an issue.
 
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