PT: Covid positivity rate drops below 5% nationally.

[Palatine]

I’m actually feeling pretty optimistic about the future.

I think the world is going to change pretty rapidly this summer.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still attendance limitations at sporting events etc this fall, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if there weren’t limitations.

(knock on wood etc etc)

Keep your eye on the Olympics next August in Toyko. Not just the games but the after effects. If both the athletes and spectators come through without significant infections, that should be a game changer.

 

[npignatjr]

The Summit league is playing football now

 

[Adios]

No. Florida allowed 25,000 fans into a 62,000 seat stadium. The NFL took advantage of it.

And put the fans in the upper deck!

 

[Waquoit]

Hartford Athletic had 10 games with 25% capacity last summer. I think if UConn had home games last year it would have been similar.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

There is so much time between now and then, it's wild to me that people want to speculate wildly about what infection rates will look like by then.

I am cautiously optimistic, given the likelihood of another vaccine being approved soon (a single-shot vaccine as well). But there's just so many variables, new strains, etc. that it's just hard to guess six months out.

 

[crazyUCfan23]

I know it probably isn't possible, but if there is capacity limit in the stadium, I'd like to see UConn set up a couple large screens outside the stadium to watch the game from your car/tailgate.

if this was an option, then really nobody would go into the game LOL

 

[BigTenFan]

Will tailgating happen next Fall??

 

[Jimdish255]

If I had to guess, UConn plays football in front of no fans or at 25% capacity to start the season. I don't see them going to full capacity before 2022.

That is full capacity

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Vaccine clinic coming to my school this week!

 

[Palatine]

FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's one-dose COVID-19 vaccine, doses expected to start rolling next week

Shipments of the J&J vaccine are expected to begin as soon as next week, adding to the nation's defense against the coronavirus.

www.usatoday.com

It is a single shot vaccine. About 4 million doses of the new vaccine should be made available next week, 20 million total during March, and another 80 million by June.

Current numbers from John Hopkins. 23 million fully vaccinated (both doses). 72 million total doses administered. Which if my math is correct, means that just under 50 million have received their first shots. And something rarely discussed is that 19 million have had Covid and recovered, they should have some sort of immunity.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

My school is vaccinating staff who want it on Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will be “full remote days.” After everyone’s second shot (end of March or mid April) we will have a “fully in person” option for the first time since early November. Tide is definitely turning!

 

[Exit 4]

My school is vaccinating staff who want it on Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will be “full remote days.” After everyone’s second shot (end of March or mid April) we will have a “fully in person” option for the first time since early November. Tide is definitely turning!

My district in lower CT has had live 5 day school the entire year- and it’s worked out very well. Very happy our teachers cooperated. About 80% of kids opted for the live instruction.

 

[History Geek]

My school has been in person minimum day hybrid all year. Probably moving to all in (still allowing for optouts) minimum day in about three weeks.

 

[uconndogs]

FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's one-dose COVID-19 vaccine, doses expected to start rolling next week

Shipments of the J&J vaccine are expected to begin as soon as next week, adding to the nation's defense against the coronavirus.

www.usatoday.com

It is a single shot vaccine. About 4 million doses of the new vaccine should be made available next week, 20 million total during March, and another 80 million by June.

Current numbers from John Hopkins. 23 million fully vaccinated (both doses). 72 million total doses administered. Which if my math is correct, means that just under 50 million have received their first shots. And something rarely discussed is that 19 million have had Covid and recovered, they should have some sort of immunity.

I assume the 19 million infected you reference are individuals with a confirmed positive tests. I think the infected base could easily be 2-3x that number.

 

[Palatine]

I assume the 19 million infected you reference are individuals with a confirmed positive tests. I think the infected base could easily be 2-3x that number.

Yeah, the 19 mill is tested positive and recovered and even that number is approximate.

No one knows how many asymptomatic, mild and moderate cases there were.

And if you really want to get into the weeds. If you look at the adult population (over 18) of the USA that's only 220 million people. Those below 18 seem to have a natural immunity, they don't really need a vaccine. So the 23 million fully vaccinated are over 10% of vunerble population.

 

[billybud]

My wife and I are now a little over two weeks past our 2nd Vaccine....we finally went out to supper last night without the anxiety that has shadowed us...

Hugely enjoyed our supper with a couple of friends at one of our favorite places...it has been almost a year of exile.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

If I’m understanding the vaccine correctly, it neither prevents transmission of the virus, nor does it prevent one from getting it.

My understanding is that it reduces the symptoms, so that people who get the virus will almost certainly not die.

So at the end of the day, what will happen with vaccination will be speeded up (and safer) herd immunity, not prevention.

 

[Chin Diesel]

If I’m understanding the vaccine correctly, it neither prevents transmission of the virus, nor does it prevent one from getting it.

My understanding is that it reduces the symptoms, so that people who get the virus will almost certainly not die.

So at the end of the day, what will happen with vaccination will be speeded up (and safer) herd immunity, not prevention.

I would do some googling on whether or not the vaccine prevents transmission.

From what I have read:

They haven't studied it yet, so there is no declared promise of preventing transmission

Many infectious disease doctors believe the vaccine either prevents transmission or lowers the amount of virus that can be transmitted.

Looking back at other vaccines for viruses, vaccinations have shown to be able to protect the person and prevent transmission.

None of these have a 100% prevention guarantee but they all showed those who caught the 'rona after vaccination have had much less severe reactions and quicker recovery times. The newly approved J&J vaccination had a 100% success rate against death from the 'rona.


Vaccines FAQ - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu)

The great unknown: do Covid vaccines stop you spreading the virus? | Australia news | The Guardian

We Still Don’t Know How Well Covid Vaccines Stop Transmission | WIRED

 

[superjohn]

If I had to guess, UConn plays football in front of no fans or at 25% capacity to start the season. I don't see them going to full capacity before 2022.

Lol, sure.

 

[Adios]

Lol, sure.

Lol, going by precedent set.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

My HS Junior at Cromwell High just went back today to full in person, excluding those that have opted to remain at home. We'll see how it goes.

 

[huskypantz]

If I’m understanding the vaccine correctly, it neither prevents transmission of the virus, nor does it prevent one from getting it.

My understanding is that it reduces the symptoms, so that people who get the virus will almost certainly not die.

So at the end of the day, what will happen with vaccination will be speeded up (and safer) herd immunity, not prevention.

Still much to come. What it does do is almost eliminates the chance of death and greatly reduces the chance of hospitalization. The speculation is around viral load. If you still get infected but end up with a low viral load (because your AB's are working hard immediately) then the chance that you pass it on should decrease dramatically. Now that's a hypothesis since we don't have studies yet but it's consistent with the science around viral load and coronavirus.

 

[huskypantz]

My HS Junior at Cromwell High just went back today to full in person, excluding those that have opted to remain at home. We'll see how it goes.

Our district just announced that we're going from 50% in person to full in person on 4/5. Can't wait.

 

[Stinger92860]

7 day averages for cases and deaths appeared to plateau starting about a week ago. im hoping we see the same large drop we saw last spring. I can’t believe it’s been a year.

 

[uconndogs]

One of the most promising things I continue to read is that the vaccines continue to test very positively in reducing the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death. The WSJ this morning had an article that England is initiating vaccines 12 weeks apart and a comprehensive study indicates that the initial dose is very effective in this regard.

I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

I'm a half full guy, but a realist. I think we're heading for something more normal over the next several months. I can't wait to get the vaccine, but will wait my turn.

 

[huskypantz]

One of the most promising things I continue to read is that the vaccines continue to test very positively in reducing the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death. The WSJ this morning had an article that England is initiating vaccines 12 weeks apart and a comprehensive study indicates that the initial dose is very effective in this regard.

I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

I'm a half full guy, but a realist. I think we're heading for something more normal over the next several months. I can't wait to get the vaccine, but will wait my turn.

We’re not at zero cases/transmissions for the flu and we have annual vaccinations. If we can get to similar numbers we need to call it a win and move on.

 

[Palatine]

I think we have to read the press very carefully about what the vaccines can be expected to do against the variants. To my way of thinking avoiding serious illness, hospitalization and death is a good outcome. Getting to absolute zero cases/transmission will be years off.

Couple of things. First, the vaccines are working well in South Africa (huge drop in cases and deaths, South Africa Coronavirus: 1,513,959 Cases and 50,077 Deaths - Worldometer) which would seem to be elegant proof they work against the South African variant. The same is true of the vaccine in the UK against the UK variant.

Second, we haven't gotten to absolute zero against the flu. It's not realistic to expect to get to absolute zero against Covid-19. But if behaves like other Covid viruses, the vaccine will be successful in eliminating the health crisis.

So I'm a glass three quarters full guy.

 

[uconndogs]

To be clear, I'm not advocating zero transmittance as a goal. My concern is that as a society we get overly fixated on that, which I believe would be a mistake.

I was hoping we would go to something like England with longer intervals between the first and second inoculations so that we can get initial doses in folks much faster.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

The science would agree that prioritizing older Americans will have the biggest effect on the overall infection and death rates. Adults 65 and older account for 16% of the US population but 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the US.

The USA population is around 340 million people. 16% of that means about 55 million people are 65 or older. We have already administered 60 million plus doses. 6% of the population is fully vaccinated. If we maintain that pace and priority, meaningful drops in infections and deaths should happen in weeks not months.

What’s not getting reported for some reason is that of the 80% of those over 65 that have succumbed to COVID, half were smokers or former smokers. What’s also not being done is including smokers or former smokers with other high risk groups, then you have people coming out of the woodwork arguing that otherwise healthy people over 65 who were smokers or former smokers and who died of COVID should NOT be included with other high risk groups such as diabetics, hbp, heart ailment, or some other chronic affliction.

 

[Palatine]

What’s not getting reported for some reason is that of the 80% of those over 65 that have succumbed to COVID, half were smokers or former smokers. What’s also not being done is including smokers or former smokers with other high risk groups, then you have people coming out of the woodwork arguing that otherwise healthy people over 65 who were smokers or former smokers and who died of COVID should NOT be included with other high risk groups such as diabetics, hbp, heart ailment, or some other chronic affliction.

I'm not sure where you are going with this.