Providence Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

Providence: 12-3
Kenpom Rating: 43
Overall Strength of Schedule: 212th (10th easiest non-con)​

Best wins:

• 103-98 (2 OT) v #29 Marquette
  • Bryce Hopkins: 29 points, 23 rebounds, 13-18 FTs
  • Croswell and Carter w/ 20 points
• 72-52 @ #83 DePaul
  • Devin Carter: 21 points, 3 assists
  • Ed Croswell: 15 points, 10 boards

No “bad” Losses:

• 64-75 v #36 Miami (neutral)
• 73-76 v #80 Saint Louis (neutral)
• 62-75 @ #34 TCU

Currently on a seven game winning streak headlined with Big East wins over Seton Hall, Marquette, Butler and DePaul

OFFENSE: 31st in efficiency

• 6th in offensive rebounding rate (38.4%)
• 19th in FTA/FGA (41.4)
• 66th in 2p% (53.4%)
• 119th in A/FGM (53.6%)
• 120th in FT% (72.8%)
• 146th in offensive tempo (17.1 seconds/possession)
• 147th in 3p% (34.0%)
• ~median in turnover rate (18.7%)
• 325th in 3PA/FGA (30/2%)

DEFENSE: 69th (nice) in efficiency

• 27th in A/FGM prevention (43%)
• 31st in FTA/FGA prevention rate (23.6%)
• 39th in 3PA/FGA prevention (31.8%)
• 47th in block rate (12.3%)
• 63rd in steal rate (11.3%)
• 65th in Opp. 2p% (46.0%)
• 90th in Opp. offensive rebounding rate (26.0%)
• ~median in Opp. 3p% (33.0%)
• Near bottom in
  • Opp. FT% (76.2%)
  • Non steal/block turnover % (7.6%)

I’ve watched three of Providence’s games this year: their win over Rhode Island, their win against Seton Hall and last night’s win over DePaul.

The biggest difference between the Seton Hall and DePaul game is that Providence’s offense looked a lot better against DePaul. In the Seton Hall game, Providence’s scoring was mostly Bryce Hopkins on iso attacking the basket and Croswell getting put backs from offensive boards (only 26 points scored from other Friars).

Providence looked a lot more in sync against DePaul, highlighted by Devin Carter, who has averaged 21 points per game over the last three games and is tough defensively. Overall, he has vastly exceeded expectations after transferring from South Carolina.

Also, after a slow start (8.3 ppg, 33.0 fg% in first 12 games), Jared Bynum has looked a lot more comfortable in the last three games (15.0 ppg, 46.9 fg%).

When you consider that only Bynum, Croswell and Allyn Breed were the only rotation pieces on the team last year, it makes sense that it has taken some time for the Friars to jell, but one of Cooley’s coaching strengths is letting players play to their strengths.

That being said, Providence’s offense revolves around Ed Croswell playing the Nate Watson role and Noah Locke as the consistent floor stretcher, leaving Bynum/Hopkins/Carter to work together to knife through the offense and look for easy offense within 15 feet.

Speaking of Hopkins, on offense he reminds me a bit of a bigger version of David Duke (even though Duke was a better defensive player), so while fans were not happy with UConn’s defense against Freemantle, playing Xavier will definitely help prep UConn to make adjustments and properly defend Hopkins on Wednesday and Kaluma on Saturday .

Now in conference play, Cooley has whittled down to an eight-man rotation with every player, aside from Jayden Pierre, with positionally stout statures. To put it bluntly, Providence is thicc and will be a very tough opponent.

Defensively, Providence does not want to play in transition as their defense is vastly better when set. If there was ever a game to play two bigs, the Providence game is not that situation: quick transition forwards like Karaban and Jackson (and maybe Johnson?) will be huge for UConn to get defensive rebounds (8th best rate in the nation) and work quickly up the court before guys like Croswell and Hopkins to get in position.

While UConn is favored to win, fans should not take this game lightly: UConn is 1-2 against Providence since rejoining the Big East and unless UConn can get in transition with regularity, Wednesday should yet again be a grind against the Friars.

A version of the above report is available on my blog, feel free to share it via email, link, Twitter, etc.

Providence Scouting Report Prior to Wednesday's Matchup Hosting UConn

stretchingthefloor.blogspot.com

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Hopkins vs Karaban is a bit of a nightmare matchup.

 

[superjohn]

Hopkins vs Karaban is a bit of a nightmare matchup.

Put Jackson on him, Karaban won't be able to guard him.

 

[tcf15]

 

[tcf15]

 

[tcf15]

 

[auror]

Honestly, I really don't love the matchup of their offense against our defense. What we're best at (limiting 3s), they don't really care about. What we're worst at (comitting fouls) they emphasize. We're going to need Sanogo, Clingan, and Jackson to really own the D boards. For those of the betting inclined, I'd watch the over.

Put Jackson on him, Karaban won't be able to guard him.

So then Karaban has to guard 6'3" Noah Locke or 6'3" Devin Carter? I guess might be able to do Locke. He's mostly a standstill shooter. Almost no presence attacking to the rim off the bounce or on cuts.

I've been pretty vocally against 2 bigs. I think this is sneakily the game to do it. Unleash the Kraken. Own the paint. Make Hopkins guard Sanogo in the block. Have better rim protection and just in general a clogged paint for Carter and Hopkins drives and all their flex cuts.

 

[superjohn]

Honestly, I really don't love the matchup of their offense against our defense. What we're best at (limiting 3s), they don't really care about. What we're worst at (omitting fouls) they emphasize. We're going to need Sanogo, Clingan, and Jackson to really own the D boards. For those of the betting inclined, I'd watch the over.

So then Karaban has to guard 6'3" Noah Locke or 6'3" Devin Carter? I guess might be able to do Locke. He's mostly a standstill shooter. Almost no presence attacking to the rim off the bounce or on cuts.

I've been pretty vocally against 2 bigs. I think this is sneakily the game to do it. Own the paint in this one.

Yes, put Karaban on Locke. All he does is shoot standstill threes.

I don't get why people are so adamant that Sanogo and Clingan should never share the court together. Clingan controls the paint, Sanogo doesn't. We simply can't keep playing Clingan under 10 minutes in Big East games, his minutes should be going north of 15 per game. They are two of our best 4 players and we should be bullying these smaller teams we're playing.

I'm going to be pissed if we see these rim runs again vs. Providence.

 

[CheshireCat]

Jackson will be guarding Hopkins. They are not guarding him with Karaban. Both will need some help, but Karaban on Locke. Locke can at least put it on the floor a little, so that will be an interesting matchup too.

 

[auror]

Jackson will be guarding Hopkins. They are not guarding him with Karaban. Both will need some help, but Karaban on Locke. Locke can at least put it on the floor a little, so that will be an interesting matchup too.

Locke so far on the season has 4.8% of his shots at the rim. He will sometimes pull up for midrange Js or floaters, but that's a win for the defense usually. For context, Alleyne and Hawkins are our 2 least often rim attackers, and they're at 18/19%.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Providence has one good win, over Marquette in 2OT. I guess beating Seton Hall on the road is semi-respectable. Hopkins is OK, the rest of the starters are mediocre, and this is not the kind of team that UConn should struggle with. If UConn wants to go deep in March, it has to just beat NIT caliber teams like Providence.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Providence has one good win, over Marquette in 2OT. I guess beating Seton Hall on the road is semi-respectable. Hopkins is OK, the rest of the starters are mediocre, and this is not the kind of team that UConn should struggle with. If UConn wants to go deep in March, it has to just beat NIT caliber teams like Providence.

Croswell and Bynum are good players

 

[CheshireCat]

So we’re not going deep in March if we don’t beat Providence on January 4th?! So, so clueless. Going deep in March has nothing to do with winning games you’re supposed to “win on paper” in early January. It has to do with peaking at that time, matchups, being healthy and often a bounce or two going your way. This game isn’t a layup and we’ve been getting by teams like Butler and Georgetown that Providence and Butler just blew out respectively. You could argue that’s because we have a target on our back. I would argue that your take is clueless.

 

[UConnSwag11]

What Cooley did last year was screen sanogo under the basket so the guards can get by for an easy layup. They ran that play over and over and over. Similarly to what Xavier and nova have done. The only difference with Xavier and Nova being that they ISO’s either Karaban or Hawkins.

If Hurley can’t adjust with the starting lineup that’s out there, we may have to switch it up early. That includes our offense. If teams are going to sag on Jackson and dare him to shoot, we have to make the switch faster. Jackson cannot be shooting threes. A lineup of Joey C/Diarra/Newton, Hawkins/Joey C/Alleyne, Jackson, Sanogo, Clingan

The fans and teams of every college we’re going to to play against from here on out knows that all they have to do is get under Jackson and Hurley’s skin and they’ll get T’s. They’re going to go after Jackson a lot more. The refs are now waiting to T up Danny

Add all that in with one of the craziest homecourts in college basketball, it’s going to make for a very close and intense game

 

[AntG168]

Croswell and Bynum are good players

Wouldn’t even start on UConn. Croswell wouldn’t play. Hopkins is the ONE guy who would start on our team. They’re a plucky team. They’ll be at home so it won’t be easy. But make no mistake about it, this would be a disappointing loss

 

[CheshireCat]

Wouldn’t even start on UConn. Croswell wouldn’t play. Hopkins is the ONE guy who would start on our team. They’re a plucky team. They’ll be at home so it won’t be easy. But make no mistake about it, this would be a disappointing loss

Do you actually watch other Big East teams play or just like to pretend you know the opposition? I’d agree with you on Croswell not starting, but the dude has a nose for the ball, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and certainly a better rebounder than Sanogo. Nowhere near the offensive game. I guess you haven’t seen Carter play. He would start and finish for us.

 

[AntG168]

Do you actually watch other Big East teams play or just like to pretend you know the opposition? I’d agree with you on Croswell not starting, but the dude has a nose for the ball, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and certainly a better rebounder than Sanogo. Nowhere near the offensive game. I guess you haven’t seen Carter play. He would start and finish for us.

Who is carter staring over. Croswell isn’t getting minutes with Sanogo and Clingan manning the position. Try again

 

[CheshireCat]

Who is carter staring over. Croswell isn’t getting minutes with Sanogo and Clingan manning the position. Try again

The fact that you’re asking that question tells me everything I need to know. The guy just averaged 20+ the last 3 games and had 5 blocks and 4 steals in the last one. I don’t watch much outside of the Big East, but I do record all the Big East games and spun through the DePaul and Butler ones last night to see what we’re up against - he was scary. You my friend are the classic homer, can’t appreciate the talent on other teams.

 

[aburks41]

Clingan needs to play more minutes. If you watch Purdue, Edey draws like 10 fouls per game because he's just gigantic. We have that same advantage with Clingan, only using it for 7 minutes in a game is just pure stupidity.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Yes, put Karaban on Locke. All he does is shoot standstill threes.

I don't get why people are so adamant that Sanogo and Clingan should never share the court together. Clingan controls the paint, Sanogo doesn't. We simply can't keep playing Clingan under 10 minutes in Big East games, his minutes should be going north of 15 per game. They are two of our best 4 players and we should be bullying these smaller teams we're playing.

I'm going to be pissed if we see these rim runs again vs. Providence.

It just boggles my mind after seeing Sanogo these past two games against bigs with any semblance of outside game, how anyone can still be stumping for Sanogo at the four.

 

[CTGoonie]

What Cooley did last year was screen sanogo under the basket so the guards can get by for an easy layup. They ran that play over and over and over. Similarly to what Xavier and nova have done. The only difference with Xavier and Nova being that they ISO’s either Karaban or Hawkins.

If Hurley can’t adjust with the starting lineup that’s out there, we may have to switch it up early. That includes our offense. If teams are going to sag on Jackson and dare him to shoot, we have to make the switch faster. Jackson cannot be shooting threes. A lineup of Joey C/Diarra/Newton, Hawkins/Joey C/Alleyne, Jackson, Sanogo, Clingan

The fans and teams of every college we’re going to to play against from here on out knows that all they have to do is get under Jackson and Hurley’s skin and they’ll get T’s. They’re going to go after Jackson a lot more. The refs are now waiting to T up Danny

Add all that in with one of the craziest homecourts in college basketball, it’s going to make for a very close and intense game

I'm very confused by this since they only played once and Sanogo was out due to injury.

 

[UConnSwag11]

I'm very confused by this since they only played once and Sanogo was out due to injury.

True, forgot. But that doesn't change what Cooley did and what Nova and Xavier have done

 

[UConnSwag11]

It just boggles my mind after seeing Sanogo these past two games against bigs with any semblance of outside game, how anyone can still be stumping for Sanogo at the four.

bc anyone else that's played at the four has gotten absolutely abused in the paint

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It just boggles my mind after seeing Sanogo these past two games against bigs with any semblance of outside game, how anyone can still be stumping for Sanogo at the four.

One way would be if we watched Freemantle and freaking Hunter humiliate Karaban. Sean Miller's biggest mistake on Saturday was not going to Freemantle more after Freemantle had 11 in the first 10 minutes. Freemantle would have scored 30 if I had been coaching Xavier because I would have isolated him on Karaban until Karaban was a human puddle on the court. There was no reason for Xavier to go to anyone else on Saturday.

Sanogo's defensive effort comes and goes, but he can defend a 4 like Freemantle when he wants to, and he forces Freemantle to play on both ends. I like Karaban's shooting and effort, but he does not have nearly the 1-on-1 offensive game that Sanogo has.

 

[awfuldan]

If Jackson guards Hopkins, this should be a game where we play Alleyne more. He has been making shots recently and is a better matchup defensively than Karaban against Providence's three guards. Hopkins will struggle with Jackson on the other end of the floor if Jackson is initiating the offense.

Would like to see Newton get aggressive against Bynum. Huge size advantage. Hurley posted up Newton at least once earlier this season. Can we go to that again Wednesday?