Providence Post Game Thread

[REB1094]

creighton is going to pack it in just like xavier and providence. we need to figure out how to beat that defense. the ball has to come out if that happens, then our guards can drive and dish.

Andre did a great job early in the Xavier game. They left him wide open to double Sanogo, he missed his first few but he was 3-6 at one point. Very respectable.

Then he started chucking them. The key is to make enough so that the defense has to guard it, and then get the ball back inside with improved spacing. If Creighton leaves him wide open all game, then he should take them all game. If they step out on him, no step backs, pull-ups, etc..gotta stay disciplined

If they pack the paint and he misses all of his shots, Newton or Hawkins have to find a way to score

 

[gsmooth]

Andre did a great job early in the Xavier game. They left him wide open to double Sanogo, he missed his first few but he was 3-6 at one point. Very respectable.

Then he started chucking them. The key is to make enough so that the defense has to guard it, and then get the ball back inside with improved spacing. If Creighton leaves him wide open all game, then he should take them all game. If they step out on him, no step backs, pull-ups, etc..gotta stay disciplined

If they pack the paint and he misses all of his shots, Newton or Hawkins have to find a way to score

That is what I stated in another post. I had no issue with AJax in the Xavier game when he was 3-6 from 3 point land. If teams leave him that wide open and he takes those 3s by taking his time and shooting with confidence, meaning he follows through and doesn't short arm or rush the shot, that is a good thing (i.e. the clutch 3 pt shot he made against Nova was nice).

In retrospect, even though we all loved his step back 3 he made early in the second half vs Xavier it did more harm than good in the long run-obviously it's good in the moment making shots is better than missing them. But I think he got massively overconfident after than and started shooting way more 3s that were not of the wide open variety in the Xavier game and in the PC game-none of them were close to being on target. Calcaterra and Hawkins should have that level of green light from 3, but not AJax.

Newton definitely needs to step up. He needs to think about scoring a lot more, but not overcorrect to the point where he is neglecting passing altogether either-it's a balancing act.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Putting aside Goodman's public comments about Hurley, maybe the Big East officiating is not just a UConn problem. Biased and poor officiating is often homecourt based. Conventional wisdom is that poor officials either consciously or subconsciously hand the home team more than its share of 50/50 calls. An easy way to test this (without watching hours of game film) is to look at home records in a conference. Less biased officiating should result in a less extreme home court W/L record within conference games, particularly of games between teams of similar caliber.

The Big East home record is 16-10, which is not great, not terrible, and could simply be a function of better teams winning on the road. But when you break the Big East into tiers, it looks a little different:

1) UConn, PC, Xavier, Marquette, Creighton - Home record of 11-0
2) Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall, SJU - home record of 4-6
3) Depaul, GTown - Home record of 1-4

The two uncompetitive teams are 40% of the home losses for the entire conference.

There is not a single road win over a higher or same tier team so far this season. In games within the same tier, the home team is 7-0. Of those 7 games (PC/UConn, PC/Marq, Xav/UConn, Marq/Creighton, Vill/SJU, SHU/SJU, Dep/GTown), only 2 of them (PC/Marq and Dep/Gtown) were decided by less than 10 points. Basically, if you go on the road in the Big East, you aren't just going to lose, but you are going to lose big, even against a similar level of competition.

It is early in the season, but that is an interesting record of dominance by the home team in games that should be 50/50, or maybe 60/40 (providing for some home court advantage beyond the officiating). But 100/0? That could be a sign that the conference has an officiating problem. This weekend, there are two games that fall into this category: UConn/Creighton and SHU/Butler. Next week, there is Butler/SJU, UConn/Marq, Creighton/Xavier, Villanova/Butler, Prov/Creighton, Marq/Xavier. Will the Big East revert to the mean, or will the home team continue to dominate what should be competitive games? Let's see what happens over the next week or so and revisit.

If you want to do a quick test of this theory, look at the Big 12. It is hard to tier that conference since there have only been 10 conference games played and all the teams except maybe Kansas seem really close, but the home teams' record is 5-5 in those games and almost every game has been competitive. The two games decided by 10+ points were Kansas State at Texas and Baylor at Iowa State, and in one case (Kstate at Texas) the road team won comfortably. I think there is some evidence that the Big 12's officiating is better and less biased than the Big East's.

Updating the numbers:

1) UConn, PC, Xavier, Marquette, Creighton - Home record of 14-0
2) Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall, SJU - home record of 5-7
3) Depaul, GTown - home record of 1-4

The league is now up to 9 intra-tier games, and the home team is 9-0 with only 2 decided by less than 9 points. There are some signs that the Big East has a homecourt officiating problem.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Was there a Technical on Croswell?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Updating the numbers:

1) UConn, PC, Xavier, Marquette, Creighton - Home record of 14-0
2) Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall, SJU - home record of 5-7
3) Depaul, GTown - home record of 1-4

The league is now up to 9 intra-tier games, and the home team is 9-0 with only 2 decided by less than 9 points. There are some signs that the Big East has a homecourt officiating problem.

1) UConn, PC, Xavier, Marquette, Creighton - Home record of 16-0
2) Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall, SJU - Home Record of 6-7
3) Depaul, GTown - Home record of 2-5

There are 12 intra-tier games, and the home team is 12-0 in those games.

It is weird how few upsets the league has had, and how dominant the home court has been. Take Georgetown, which has 4 of the home losses, out of the equation, and the home team is 24-8.

The good news for UConn is that they have played 3 of their 4 hardest games already, with the road games at Xavier, Marquette, and Providence already played.