Outside of Karaban starting if he returns I think all starter spots are up for grabs. Unlike last year I could see Hurley trying a few different starting lineups during pre conference games. The newcomers have to learn the offense and defense schemes. Freshmen often need some time to adjust to college level. There is really wide variance in how ready freshmen are. Even a McDs future superstar Rip Hamilton struggled for the first half of his freshman season. The returning players need to make improvements to game over summer to get more minutes than they got last year.
With all that said, I think Diarra has best chance to start as he is a disrupter on defense and Hurley really wants that in PG. Diarra know how to run the offense and played pretty consistently well down the stretch.
Ball started last year while Castle was out and I think will have inside track to start this year as he bring an athleticism to team that no one else can bring. But to secure the spot he needs to be a better defender. He struggled at time last year to be in the right spot in rotation on defense, and that is why I think Stewart ultimately got the 8th man spot in rotation. Ball also needs to work within offense and not force shots.
Samson needs to be able to play defense without fouling and get contested defensive rebounds. If he doesn’t improve there, Reed will start.
Stewart will start if no Karaban. I think his defense, rebounding and athleticism will secure starters minutes for him, but if Karaban is back he might be the 6th man.
McNeeley is a 5 start talent, potentially NBA 1st rounder. As soon as he adjusts and learns new system he will start. I could see it taking a month for that to happen.
Mehaney probably has to compete with Ball or Diarra to get starter spot. His blurb when he committed makes it sound like is going to work really hard and I could see him winning one of those spots.
Regardless of who starts, I think Diarra, Mehaney, Ball, Stewart,
Johnson, Reed, McNeeley are going to get starters minutes.
Nowell, Ross, and Abraham will probably be fighting for the last bench role. Karaban’s return or nor probably mostly affects these 3, as the role available to these 3 greatly increases if no Karaban.
If Abraham is big enough to defend 4, he could earn time that way. If Nowell can bring another level beating defender off the dribble and driving to hoop, that might open door for him.
In general I think anyone getting defensive rebounds and playing good disruptive defense will find a way to get time on floor.