Pressing Daniel Connolly [merged thread] | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Pressing Daniel Connolly [merged thread]

PvP said:
Huskee,

I certainly didn't take any offense from the fact that you had your own take on what I completely agree are wild guesses.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I think of the 200 minute exercise as a means of firming up rather vague thoughts about an unknowable but fascinating future. By so doing and by getting others, particularly Daniel Connolly and Megan Gaurer, to likewise reduce words to numbers, each of us will have benchmarks to look back on and to alter periodically at the start of the regular season as well as during and after the season as well.

I have done this before and have been forced to face wildly off target expectations as well as some predictions which were highly satisfyingly spot on. From both results I got deeper insights into my own thinking as well as into Geno's.

I also found that, by resorting to numbers, I in effect had skin in the game which always makes following a team all the more involving.

With regard to a few of your comments, I don't believe I mentioned either E or Christyn or what results either might have from 3 point shooting this season. I did highlight Azzi and how her presence and her acknowledged shooting skills would impact Paige's role and Nika's minutes. I also mentioned some new comers with histories of 3 point success elsewhere who might also improve UConn's long range scoring. Except for Dorka, all of their previous successes were in high school and thus far from assured at the next level. But I tried to say that just Azzi's impact would be sufficient to change Paige's role and Nika's minutes. Lastly, I believe that I said an improvement in Nika's long range shooting would result in more minutes for her than I currently envision.

In sum, I just encourage others to crystallize their thinking by this exercise and I believe they will get even more enjoyment from following the team and greater insight into their own foresight as well.
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I enjoy the conversations too. Would love to hear more from lurkers and others for their opinions. But I do usually do what you're doing.

With that said- I look at Nika getting more than 12 - 3fold with 1 and 2 being similar.

1-- UCONN played two low post elite power teams and stayed with them/beat them. Their two losses were against teams non post play teams. This team and last year's team should never lose games by a non-low post team.

2-- You had had made two posts on this thread regarding minutes for Nika (you are mentioning to decline her minutes to 12),--- and mentioned they had enough shooting so that's why I referenced CWill and Evina.

3-- I can't trust the other frosh as I previously mentioned, and I can't trust Dorka as a shooter / especially ft shooter. I do believe she is good player though.

As a result, I look at it like Nika one thing we know is that she is an elite passer.

For this year - just as an early wild guess view- UCONN only picked up 1 sharpshooter. And - Geno is a slightly-more offensive coach before defense, and he complained all year about shooting. UCONN now has 2 reliable shooters more-than-likely in Paige and probably Azzi. So in order to prevent too much sagging off of Paige and Azzi, of course we have CWill (due to her ability to drive) and the other is Nika. While Evina can easily play 1-3 but having her as the PF too along with 1-3- and then throw in Edwards as a center for minutes- this is a formidable team. OFC Liv and Dorka and Aubrey - 2 of the 3 whether Liv starts etc --- gets healthy minutes. And at least one gets more minutes than Nika too. To further this, I wouldn't give Edwards a 30 minute average.

So in this scenario I see more than 12 minutes for Nika. Her elite passing and good shooting after she became acclimated and healthy are too valuable- considering Geno prefers offense over defense from what I've always believed and picked up from UConnCat's post regarding a Geno podcast. I'm sure others have a different take - but that's mine.
 
Huskee,

OK, we are making progress! I must say I don't understand what you meant by "I look at Nika getting more than 12 - 3fold with 1 and 2 being similar." But you at least are on record as looking for Nika to get more than 12 minutes per game on average. But more than 12 is subject to a very broad interpretation. Can I get you to commit to a number, of course subject to revision as all such numbers are over time? And yes, I agree that Nika's minutes are going to be highly influenced by how many minutes Edwards gets so maybe a prediction for her as well?

I really found your comments about how we fared against low post and non-low post teams insightful and agree completely.
 
Huskee,

One thing about your assertion that we would not fall to any low post team; did you consider SC with Boston and Cardoza?
 
PvP said:
Huskee,

One thing about your assertion that we would not fall to any low post team; did you consider SC with Boston and Cardoza?
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We dominated Cardoso. Absolutely dominated. Just pull up 5 feet away from her.
 
Drew8 said:
We dominated Cardoso. Absolutely dominated. Just pull up 5 feet away from her.
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Cardoso on Syracuse vs on SC is going to be a much different battle. She’s surrounded by a lot more talent. Her being there to give Boston a break is going to give us a problems. Having to compete the whole game with 2 elite posts will pose its challenges.
 
Heytherego said:
Cardoso on Syracuse vs on SC is going to be a much different battle. She’s surrounded by a lot more talent. Her being there to give Boston a break is going to give us a problems. Having to compete the whole game with 2 elite posts will pose its challenges.
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I don't even think S.C. fans are that excited about Cardoso. We have a few more fouls to give this year, that might come in handy in that game, but she is not yet elite.

She was not first-team ACC on the coaches poll.
 
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I just think people are projecting her to be something she has not proven yet.
 
PvP said:
Huskee,

OK, we are making progress! I must say I don't understand what you meant by "I look at Nika getting more than 12 - 3fold with 1 and 2 being similar." But you at least are on record as looking for Nika to get more than 12 minutes per game on average. But more than 12 is subject to a very broad interpretation. Can I get you to commit to a number, of course subject to revision as all such numbers are over time? And yes, I agree that Nika's minutes are going to be highly influenced by how many minutes Edwards gets so maybe a prediction for her as well?

I really found your comments about how we fared against low post and non-low post teams insightful and agree completely.
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Every year I usually can do this whether I'm right or wrong. But this year there are way too many variables at extreme levels. A wild estimate if I were to prorate last year's 224 minutes to this year's projection then to 200 it would be 18- and try to find more.

But many factors- there is little point of reference which I can draw from.

1-- Azzi's knee. Over a month ago a poster did this minute projection and gave Azzi just 18. I replied that I felt she'd get more. Then another poster who follows H/S hoop a lot, lot, lot more than I replied to my post that 18 may be close due to health and other issues. While around the same time another thread started specifically with Azzi and there were posters that follow h/s hoop a lot, lot, lot more than I were getting psyched for Azzi coming and saying there should be very, very little to worry about regarding her knee in term of her impact/ or people being cautious. So which is it?

2-- Evina's knee. How much would she have played if Geno felt UCONN was deep? And - after how many minutes is her play affected due to her knee?

3-- The extension of the 3pt line and how it will affect Evina, CWill, Nika, Saylor, Ducharme, and Dorka 3pt %? You know that I believe Geno sides more with offense than defense (unless the defense is so awful) - and we know Geno complained a lot about the shooting. I have no point of reference to know how the 3pt shooting will affect over-and-above normal season-to-season which we speculate. I assume Paige and Azzi are fine. I lean toward Nika being okay.

4-- Dorka. How can she be a legit 3pt shooter but be so absolutely awful from the FT line? How is that even possible? I don't understand. So suppose she is like Az Stevens when it comes to 3pt shooting? AZ Stevens coming to UCONN was thought to be a decent enough 3pt shooter. She was awful at the 3 but was a very good player offensively. She could also hit her ft's though. And with Dorka being so awful as ft shooter - she doesn't give very much if she also is affected by the 3pt line extension. But . . . if her 3pt shooting was legit and even the extension of the 3pt line doesn't affect her- and there is a fix for her ft shooting to be at least decent-- all are possible too- then she probably turns into a tremendous player. Thus- there is an enormous variance.

:)If you tell me the answer to these 4 points -I could make up a list. Right now it's too brutal. I'm guessing when you made up your list you think Azzi and Evina's knees are okay? And the extended 3pt line won't affect anyone? Also, for me- I've been against the notion many want on here to be press/press/press/use a deep bench. But this year might be the 1st time I could see it -possibly - depending on the answers. For my preference though is to play the superstars/all-americans/honorable mention caliber a/a's in big games. And they get enough minutes in blowouts too.
 
PvP said:
Huskee,

One thing about your assertion that we would not fall to any low post team; did you consider SC with Boston and Cardoza?
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No. I didn't project what you're saying. I said last year we beat them. This year- who knows?

IMO there are no assurances for beating super elite teams.. You play your best players - and if UCONN plays at a level you think they can achieve - you have a shot to win it all. On paper Arizona wasn't supposed to come potentially a few seconds away from a championship and yet they did. And overall UCONN should be much better than last year Az.

And with SC - it can be a catch-22 imo. For example- if we're talking specifically "Nika" - it should mean that her 3pt shot is working. Add in both Azzi and Paige - they live on the perimeter. UCONN would have 3 pg's on the floor and two of them are very elite passers and two are very elite shooters. On defense Boston and Cardoso would have to defend the perimeter too- not their strength. Now - potentially- you have two players not defending to their strength. - And with that lineup - they have one less shooter on the floor - so maybe it will be easier to play a gimmick sagging defense.

And it's just 1 game. I've identified 18 minutes average for Nika for a season. That leaves time for bigs to get their minutes during the season too. If Nika is knocking down 3's I'd amend my prediction and give her an average of 20 minutes - and then maybe more depending on the 4 prior questions. OFC that would possibly drop for example if Dorka is terrific.

What are your thoughts? You like Dorka a bit I think? So what would you think of Dorka, Edwards, Paige, Azzi and Nika for a time as long as Nika can also hit her 3's?
 
hoophuskee said:
What are your thoughts? You like Dorka a bit I think? So what would you think of Dorka, Edwards, Paige, Azzi and Nika for a time as long as Nika can also hit her 3's?
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That could be next year's starting 5. I can't see it happening this year though. Can't imagine a more efficient 3 players on offense then Paige and Azzi shooting from the perimeter and Aaliyah to put back anything they happen to miss, or finish the pick and roll. Just pair them with two players who can defend and pass them the ball.
 
Drew8 said:
That could be next year's starting 5. I can't see it happening this year though. Can't imagine a more efficient 3 players on offense then Paige and Azzi shooting from the perimeter and Aaliyah to put back anything they happen to miss, or finish the pick and roll. Just pair them with two players who can defend and pass them the ball.
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Will Dorka have another year after this coming one?
 
.-.
Drew8 said:
Dorka, Christyn, Olivia and Evina could all come back. Extra years due to covid.
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I really could only realistically see Dorka coming back. CW, Liv, Evina onto bigger and better things.
 
Drew8 said:
I don't even think S.C. fans are that excited about Cardoso. We have a few more fouls to give this year, that might come in handy in that game, but she is not yet elite.

She was not first-team ACC on the coaches poll.
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I'm not sure which SC fans you are talking to but the ones that post on the BY are excited and surprised to have her. Without Cardoso last year SC led the nation in block shots and was 3 in rebounding margin. With her South Carolina will be a more formidable team and tougher to score on. In the next matchup UCONN will have to shoot much better from deep than last time (2 of 15) and BTW this game will be in Columbia, SC.
 
While it is true that we handled Cardoso in the tournament, the talent around her will make this our toughest regular season game. I expect to win on superior outside shooting drawing their bigs away from the basket.
 
CocoHusky said:
I'm not sure which SC fans you are talking to but the ones that post on the BY are excited and surprised to have her. Without Cardoso last year SC led the nation in block shots and was 3 in rebounding margin. With her South Carolina will be a more formidable team and tougher to score on. In the next matchup UCONN will have to shoot much better from deep than last time (2 of 15) and BTW this game will be in Columbia, SC.
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Could be an epic battle. And if you are setting the over/under for made 3's at two I'll take the over. In fact I'll say that one UConn player will make 2+ by herself.

Cardoso, like Juhasz, is insurance. SC was hurting against top opponents whenever Boston was on the bench. Before Juhasz UConn was faced with backing ONO up with a freshman or with Edwards. Both teams got what they needed. Juhasz is more of an offense threat while Cardoso's shot blocking will take some pressure off Boston.
 
CocoHusky said:
I'm not sure which SC fans you are talking to but the ones that post on the BY are excited and surprised to have her. Without Cardoso last year SC led the nation in block shots and was 3 in rebounding margin. With her South Carolina will be a more formidable team and tougher to score on. In the next matchup UCONN will have to shoot much better from deep than last time (2 of 15) and BTW this game will be in Columbia, SC.
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Cardoso could work out great for S.C., I can not foresee what will happen, but this article kind of sums up why it is not a shoe-in.

Lakers promised Andre Drummond a starting spot to convince him to sign, per report
 
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I would say she should have sought an assurance on minutes not "starting" but neither one would be enforceable in any case.
 
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