Prediction: Our backcourt will easily be one best of the country

[jibsey]

Gotta shoot the ball well for that to happen.

Correct, but what additions to our team make that seem likely to happen? And please don’t tell me that they will make giant leaps over the summer.

 

[Sphinx]

Remember, it's not as if AG was this great McD AA high-schooler when he was healthy, and should not be expected to regain that level after three shoulder surgeries. AG never played with a healthy shoulder, even in high school. There is the possibility that with a fully-repaired shoulder, he will be better than the AG we recruited.

"Sometimes, when you keep a grasp on reality, you forget to keep a grasp on possibility." ~~ Robert Brault

 

[CTBasketball]

Correct, but what additions to our team make that seem likely to happen? And please don’t tell me that they will make giant leaps over the summer.

Polley: 15/36 41.7%
Adams: 96/295 32.5%
Vital: 120/356 33.7%
Gilbert: 7/29 24.1%

Smith: 60/199 30.2%

Based on statistics, your answer is no one.

 

[auror]

Yep but those numbers are depressed by last second desperation threes in a stagnant offense. Start moving the ball with sensible drive and dish to let people step into and get off there shots in rhythm and the percentages will increase.

Hurley's teams at URI had 1 year out of 6 where they were in the top 150 of 3pt shooting% as a team, and 4/6 were 240+ ranked.

 

[UconnU]

Hurley's teams at URI had 1 year out of 6 where they were in the top 150 of 3pt shooting% as a team, and 4/6 were 240+ ranked.

Right, he used shooter/s on the floor for spacing purposes but the offense was mainly predicated on dribble penetration, something that our stable of guards do well. He prefers higher % layups and dunks in transition and in sets.

 

[gtcam]

Remember, it's not as if AG was this great McD AA high-schooler when he was healthy

What is a GREAT McDAA vs just a McDAA? I'm confused
So AG was a pedestrian McDAA?
I recall watching game film from his junior and Sr HS years and he looked every bit a McDAA

 

[UConnStats]

Hurley's teams at URI had 1 year out of 6 where they were in the top 150 of 3pt shooting% as a team, and 4/6 were 240+ ranked.

To be fair, if you ignore his first year which was without any of his own guys, the highest rank any of his team had in % of FGA from 3 was 229. His teams haven’t shot that many 3s as it wasn’t their strength. That being said, overall their lack of shooting definitely is what hindered his offenses.

I think (and I certainly hope) he puts more effort into recruiting good shooters here at UConn. It should be easier to find commits that can both shoot and defend at UConn than it was at URI.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

*will easily be one of the best

Thanks for correcting the error, but didn't you also mean to say "...of the century"?

 

[auror]

To be fair, if you ignore his first year which was without any of his own guys, the highest rank any of his team had in % of FGA from 3 was 229. His teams haven’t shot that many 3s as it wasn’t their strength. That being said, overall their lack of shooting definitely is what hindered his offenses.

I think (and I certainly hope) he puts more effort into recruiting good shooters here at UConn. It should be easier to find commits that can both shoot and defend at UConn than it was at URI.

For sure. People delude themselves that the problems were all on Ollie and that a new coach will make it work. It usually doesn't work.

 

[Sphinx]

Remember, it's not as if AG was this great McD AA high-schooler when he was healthy

What is a GREAT McDAA vs just a McDAA? I'm confused
So AG was a pedestrian McDAA?
I recall watching game film from his junior and Sr HS years and he looked every bit a McDAA

When I said that AG was a great McD AA, I meant he was a great McD AA. When I said that he did not achieve this status when healthy, I meant that he did not achieve this status when healthy.

My point is that he became a McD AA despite a bum shoulder and might be expected to be even better with a fully-repaired shoulder.

Please forgive the wording. It was an attempt to say something entirely positive and upbeat, always a risk.

 

[intlzncster]

Gilbert hasn't even shot 30%.

Between the 4 guards, they have a combined 10 seasons* of experience.

The best single season 3pt% out of those 10 was 36.2% from Vital his freshman year, upon which he promptly regressed to 31% the next year. There's only one other season out of the 10 with over 33% 3-point shooting: Jalen's sophomore year, which was bookended by 27% and 32%. As a whole over their whole careers, our guards are 281/875 from 3, 32%.

The D1 median team 3pt% is around 35%. 32% would have ranked ~#310 as a team last year.

*Counting Gilbert's 2 shortened seasons. A lot of noise with his numbers, but that could just as easily have mean he shot 40% on the 31 attempts, but he wasn't even close.

I don't expect this kid to be a shooter, but his barely statistically significant numbers (stretched over the course of two seasons no less) don't tell you too much, especially considering he had an injured shoulder the whole time.

 

[intlzncster]

For sure. People delude themselves that the problems were all on Ollie and that a new coach will make it work. It usually doesn't work.

On the plus side, Hurley's made it work (ie won games) without 3pt shooters. That's good for us cause we don't really have any. No coach turns a team of non shooters into shooters.

He's gotta get some and soon.

 

[UconnU]

Gilbert hasn't even shot 30%.

Between the 4 guards, they have a combined 10 seasons* of experience.

The best single season 3pt% out of those 10 was 36.2% from Vital his freshman year, upon which he promptly regressed to 31% the next year. There's only one other season out of the 10 with over 33% 3-point shooting: Jalen's sophomore year, which was bookended by 27% and 32%. As a whole over their whole careers, our guards are 281/875 from 3, 32%.

The D1 median team 3pt% is around 35%. 32% would have ranked ~#310 as a team last year.

*Counting Gilbert's 2 shortened seasons. A lot of noise with his numbers, but that could just as easily have mean he shot 40% on the 31 attempts, but he wasn't even close.

Im betting we improve to the mean with better sets. But you dont need to be a good 3 point shooting team to be good; you're actually better off taking more high % 2s which I think this team can do at a high clip. Although teams have been running more set 3 looks lately it's still primarily used as an equalizer for teams that are over matched. Syracuse was a horrendous 3-point shooting team last year. 30%

 

[Scrutineer]

It's not a prediction if you wait until the players prove they are amongst the best. Not sure how so many can on the one hand see Hurley as "super coach" and not expect results immediately. Jalen had Kemba junior year type shooting numbers (big difference lack of trips to foul line) in a one man band type offense, Vital shot selection not the best, Gilbert can (not saying will) make big impact and grad transfer does seem at least AA type help (potentially more and against a less demanding role than AA was thrust into).
Why not put it out there? I want our backcourt guys thinking this - "We are bad to the bone!"

Do we have proof that "on the day they were born the nurses gathered 'round to gaze in wide wonder at the joy they had found"?

 

[Confident Carl]

*will easily be one of the best

Never mind B Adams and Wilson, we have FOUR guards in rotation who averaged 12 points or more last season(most in the country?). They can all defend well. There also is a clearly defined leader. As long as they can improve their passing(which i believe is more of a coaching thing than a talent thing) This could be the deepest and most productive back court we've had in a long time. Thoughts on just how good this back court could be?

Even if what you are saying is true, it matters little if we can't get more consistent production from the front court. Until we can say with confidence that we have the potential to be one of the best teams in the country, who cares how high our guards are rated in the pre season.

 

[auror]

Im betting we improve to the mean with better sets. But you dont need to be a good 3 point shooting team to be good; you're actually better off taking more high % 2s which I think this team can do at a high clip. Although teams have been running more set 3 looks lately it's still primarily used as an equalizer for teams that are over matched. Syracuse was a horrendous 3-point shooting team last year. 30%

High percentage 2s are exceedingly hard to come by with modern defense. You need either dominant big men or to get out in transition. Offensive rebounding is a way of turning not as high percentage 2s into a good offense (and pseudo high % 2s), though. I'm hoping this is the direction we go in with Whaley, Diarra, Williams, and Carlton.

Every offense in the top 10 in the country last year was either 3 point dominant or big man dominant (except 1):

Villanova - 3 point dominant
Purdue - 3 point dominant
Duke - Top 10 (#1) offensive rebounding
Wichita St. - Top 10 offensive rebounding
Kansas - 3 point dominant
North Carolina - Top 10 offensive rebounding
Nevada - 3 point dominant
Xavier - The exception. Mainly due to getting to the line and Blueitt himself being a 3pt and FT assassin
TCU - Dominant big man (and top 25 offensive rebounding)
West Virginia - Top 10 offensive rebounding

Syracuse was very bad on offense last year. They won with defense. They scored at or less than 1 point per possession in every game they won in the tournament, which is remarkably bad. We don't have the personnel to pull that off (all 5 of their starters were 6'5"+) and scheme most likely won't be as good.

 

[jibsey]

Im betting we improve to the mean with better sets. But you dont need to be a good 3 point shooting team to be good; you're actually better off taking more high % 2s which I think this team can do at a high clip. Although teams have been running more set 3 looks lately it's still primarily used as an equalizer for teams that are over matched. Syracuse was a horrendous 3-point shooting team last year. 30%

Cmon, Cuse was very long, athletic and a rebounding and put back team. Is that us?

 

[UConnStats]

High percentage 2s are exceedingly hard to come by with modern defense. You need either dominant big men or to get out in transition. Offensive rebounding is a way of turning not as high percentage 2s into a good offense (and pseudo high % 2s), though. I'm hoping this is the direction we go in with Whaley, Diarra, Williams, and Carlton.

Every offense in the top 10 in the country last year was either 3 point dominant or big man dominant (except 1):

Villanova - 3 point dominant
Purdue - 3 point dominant
Duke - Top 10 (#1) offensive rebounding
Wichita St. - Top 10 offensive rebounding
Kansas - 3 point dominant
North Carolina - Top 10 offensive rebounding
Nevada - 3 point dominant
Xavier - The exception. Mainly due to getting to the line and Blueitt himself being a 3pt and FT assassin
TCU - Dominant big man (and top 25 offensive rebounding)
West Virginia - Top 10 offensive rebounding

Syracuse was very bad on offense last year. They won with defense. They scored at or less than 1 point per possession in every game they won in the tournament, which is remarkably bad. We don't have the personnel to pull that off (all 5 of their starters were 6'5"+) and scheme most likely won't be as good.

Even if you go beyond last year, thinking about who you consider great coaches, almost all of them have one of offensive rebounding or 3 point shooting consistently great.

Calipari, Huggins, Williams, and of course Jim Calhoun, all put a huge emphasis on the offensive boards. I hope we get back to that ASAP, because this team isn’t going to become great at shooting in one year.

 

[MDHuskFan]

We have a NCAA tourney backcourt for sure. Hope the rest the team matches that

 

[kobe]

you guys are gonna play a lot like we do under Hurley. pretty sure he and Mick are actually good friends. difference is at uconn you'll have a much better chance of landing better recruits than our little garden gnome.

 

[jibsey]

you guys are gonna play a lot like we do under Hurley. pretty sure he and Mick are actually good friends. difference is at uconn you'll have a much better chance of landing better recruits than our little garden gnome.

We’ll see, it’s early. There seems to be widely accepted opinions that big time recruits will eventually come to Hurley. One or two can be program changing. We wait.

 

[buddy]

When I said that AG was a great McD AA, I meant he was a great McD AA. When I said that he did not achieve this status when healthy, I meant that he did not achieve this status when healthy.

My point is that he became a McD AA despite a bum shoulder and might be expected to be even better with a fully-repaired shoulder.

Please forgive the wording. It was an attempt to say something entirely positive and upbeat, always a risk.

I have no doubt he will lead UConn to the final four this upcoming season.

 

[champs99and04]

Jeez guys we still have over 5 months and yall are predicting we’ll be in the NCAA, and have one of the best backcourts in the country? Welcome to the boneyard I guess... We have the potential to do these things but let’s at least get to see the team in action for a little bit of time before we go making these wild predictions.

I mean what would you like us to do on a college basketball message board?

 

[SoCalCanine]

I mean what would you like us to do on a college basketball message board?

Talk about pizza, beer, music and vanity plates! DUH!

 

[Hankster]

Jeez guys we still have over 5 months and yall are predicting we’ll be in the NCAA, and have one of the best backcourts in the country? Welcome to the boneyard I guess... We have the potential to do these things but let’s at least get to see the team in action for a little bit of time before we go making these wild predictions.

Well I am thinking it is going to be a very good season. It has to be. Cannot be worse than the last 2? That is why the excitement.