I think the missed story in CR is that "Rivalries drive interest and value". Rivalries are often formed with history, shared regions, and excellence. Of the teams that cycled in and out of the Big East, UConn and Cuse are missed most.
This is the point, really - that i've been trying to make. And it's really the fundamental problem with the American as a conference, brand, etc.
The reason the Big East (original) was successful was because:
-It was 8 teams with a clearly defined purpose and interest in seeing each other be successful
-It had schools in huge media markets
-It had schools in insanely fertile recruiting areas where they could actually become number 1, not just pick up scraps off big program's tables
-And lucked into ESPN at almost the exact moment it took off, allowing them to build a real brand identity that was organically ordained by fans.
That allowed recruiting to take off, brands to get established, rivalries to form.. it was compelling TV. Everyone was part of everyone else's story.
The American, conversely
-Is made up entirely of teams who are doing everything they can to leave the conference as soon as possible
-Has some teams in huge media markets and some in no-man's land that share practically nothing in common culturally or historically
-Most of which are located in either barren recruiting grounds or the fertile ones they're in - have other, better options
-Has had zero luck whatsoever with TV and as a result, hasn't been able to build a brand identity or have one built for them by fans.
UConn football isn't going to catch on because it's a bad program, in a bad recruiting area that hasn't ever demonstrated a sustained, ongoing love of college football - ever and completely lacks the enthusiasm and structure at the youth level to churn talent. In the few cases that there are to get good - there are two other places (Syracuse and BC... arguably Rutgers) - that are better places to go play medicore D1 football and get to play in a couple of cool stadiums.
It's the same reason ECU isn't going to get better in basketball.
On the flip side of things, the conference is doing a number of really good things - UCF is becoming a brand name. Memphis, USF, Cincinnati - they're good football programs, too. Navy for football only and Wichita for hoops only strengthen things a bit. In hoops you have a whole bevvy of teams with great coaches who are building up programs. Houston is getting better. UCF is getting better. Memphis and Uconn are bouncing back. Tulsa and Temple are fine as a 'floor' so to speak. But in spite of that, everyone's attendance is down, there's not a lot of interest in TV rights and the conference's identity is a P5 Refugee camp, basically. Just winning and doing the right things isn't going to be the answer.
I just don't know how anyone could say 'the future of this conference is bright' when you don't know who will even be IN the conference in five years, let alone finding anyone who's really excited to be here. To me, that's crazy. We have all these great coaches, emerging powers, etc - and people STILL want out. It should tell you something.
Meanwhile the Big East has programs that are down (St Johns, Georgetown) - but also brand name programs like Villanova, Providence, etc. And programs that are emerging powers - Xavier, Butler, etc. Marquette keeps plugging along, Seton Hall is the BE's Tulsa.. it is what it is.
But what they lack in success, they make up for in tradition, history and an actual shared interest. Everyone's there to make basketball work and be really great. And so far, they've succeeded. They have the best program in the country there, right now and are regularly in the top-3 hoops conferences every year. Their member schools aren't going anywhere willfully. Conversely, the American hasn't been the top-3 in anything and the whole group are rats on a ship. In the Big East, there's a clear, shared vision. And no level of national success has been able to topple that so far.
So putting them on close to or equal footing is living in fantasy land. I'd much, much, much rather be in the Big East for hoops - arguably everything else, too - but i'm willing to see one more round of TV rights. But if it's not a good deal, adios. Put me in the Big East.