Do you honestly believe that long-term? That Georgetown, St. Johns, Villanova, and Xavier will be able to maintain a basketball profile greater than UConn, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Houston?
Football drives the bus. As time passes, I think the AAC will define it's niche as the "6th" football league and will blow past the Big East in basketball. Most of the non-football schools -- including Wichita -- are headed toward a "St. Bonaventure/A-10" kind of future over the next 20 years, IMHO. I can sort of see the blog posts from the year 2035 about the "Once great Big East..."
Well, they already wrote "Requiem for the Big East" assuming it was dead, and since then the Big East has been very competitive and a top 2 or 3 conference.
I agree football drives the bus for the P5. After that it's less clear. Right now the Big East has a better basketball identity and brand than the American. Nova is considered with the best programs nationally and has actually been the best program over the last 5 years. After that, the next 5 or 6 spots are competitive and we have good numbers for bids. Georgetown and St Johns are a bit like UConn right now as underperforming brands, but will give the conference a boost when they cycle back up.
Nova whiffed on football and missed the golden age of BCS and the CFP era. 20 years forward is an interesting projection and I think it's much less certain. Will there be any real revenue below the P5? How will cord cutting change the landscape and the money? Will CTE change the participation, rules, popularity, and revenue of the sport? Will the P5 break from the NCAA? Can college expenses far outpace other inflation indefinitely? Is growing college tuition debt sustainable? Will we have an education bubble burst? Will state subsidized schools fund athletics? Will US colleges move to more of a government subsidized model like Europe? Will the amateur model change? Will corruption ruin college sports?
20 years back the Bonnies were already not relevant. Like Holy Cross, they are teams that lost their athletic brand value. Some P5 schools have also lost luster even though they are getting paid. ie. Boston College, Pitt. Over the last 20 years Gonzaga, Butler, Creighton, Xavier, and Wichita State have built a stronger position, so some smaller programs have shown success and are not lumped in the same trajectory as the Bonnies.
While "football drives the bus" has a lot of truth, I think the missed story in CR is that "Rivalries drive interest and value". Rivalries are often formed with history, shared regions, and excellence. Of the teams that cycled in and out of the Big East, UConn and Cuse are missed most. BC and Pitt not so much. The new BE is not as rich in rivalries as the past but we are gaining some momentum and we have a reasonable footprint. The BET at MSG is great and that helps. Who are UConn's rivals? Cincy seems like the most obvious. The American footprint is not ideal.
I'd guess 20 years from now that the Big East, built on a solid basketball-first model, is still standing with most if not all of its current members and maybe a few more. I would guess that the American won't exist in 20 years or will have a drastically different make-up. The American's programs will find their alliances, but I doubt this structure survives. I think there will be a correction to more regional affiliations.