Potential All-American Guard Position

[hoophuskee]

There is no waay Olivia Miles and Blakes should be sniffing anything near 1st team top 5 as of right now. Olivia Miles teams have played against competietion SOS ranked 227. That's embarrassing for a team thought to be top level if we want to speak of being top 5 in the country individually. Playing a junuior varrsity schedule shouldn't elevate you to 1st 5. Simiilar to Blakes. Her team's SOS is 199.

 

[visitingcock]

There is no waay Olivia Miles and Blakes should be sniffing anything near 1st team top 5 as of right now. Olivia Miles teams have played against competietion SOS ranked 227. That's embarrassing for a team thought to be top level if we want to speak of being top 5 in the country individually. Playing a junuior varrsity schedule shouldn't elevate you to 1st 5. Simiilar to Blakes. Her team's SOS is 199.

So what is the SOS cutoff level? Top 20 in SOS?

When is that determined? Now- at the end of the pre-conference period? Flaujae? At the end of the conference seasons? Conference tournaments? End of the elite 8s?

I guess I’m just saying it’s a bit early to eliminate anybody based upon level of competition- though I concede that it will be a relevant consideration at the proper time,

 

[Bone Dog]

I guess I’m just saying it’s a bit early to eliminate anybody based upon level of competition- though I concede that it will be a relevant consideration at the proper time,

Exactly. It’s also a bit early to think any forecasts have any real significance, whether eliminating or including. Before mid-February this is little more than idle speculation.

 

[hoophuskee]

So what is the SOS cutoff level? Top 20 in SOS?

When is that determined? Now- at the end of the pre-conference period? Flaujae? At the end of the conference seasons? Conference tournaments? End of the elite 8s?

I guess I’m just saying it’s a bit early to eliminate anybody based upon level of competition- though I concede that it will be a relevant consideration at the proper time,

It certianly isn't 227 or 199. We're not in a court of law here.
Anyhow, my post said "as of right now."
Shouldn't it be "as of right now?"

 

[visitingcock]

It certianly isn't 227 or 199. We're not in a court of law here.
Anyhow, my post said "as of right now."
Shouldn't it be "as of right now?"

Didn’t I highlight that in acknowledgment of your qualifier. I wasn't arguing with your point - just clarifying

 

[hoophuskee]

Didn’t I highlight that in acknowledgment of your qualifier. I wasn't arguing with your point - just clarifying

I didn't understand. I took it for that you replied to me while you asked me a question.

Okay. All set.

 

[visitingcock]

Latson’s ankle may move her down the list . Hope it’s minor and limited to a couple of weeks off. But, if not she could miss the Texas game or cause a limited number of minutes she can get against a top notch competitor

 

[ucbart]

I think here is how I'd categorize the guards early on:

Top candidates for 1st team:
-Olivia Miles, TCU, has the total package for a 1st Team AA ballot right now. Big 12 looks weak though so if TCU doesn't win I could see her dropping to 2nd team.

-Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame, has great stats but potentially poor team success. If she keeps up productivity and ND is top 20 all year I can't see her missing 1st team though

-Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt, strong contender at this point, great numbers but will potentially have a tougher time keeping up efficiency in SEC play as defenses focus closely on her.

Just outside looking in:
-Azzi Fudd, UCONN, has great efficiency but doesn't fill up full stat sheet as well as others. Likely will get fewer minutes in weak conference too.

-Taliah Scott, Baylor, she's off to an incredible start but lacks name recognition and national merit

Has work to do:
-For LSU, they'll likely need one of Flau'jae/Fulwiley/Williams to emerge as the go to player. Likely Flau'jae, but a potentially balanced offense hinders any one player from standing out. SEC play will reveal a lot about the team structure and potential.

-Olivia Olson, Michigan, stats aren't full there for 1st Team but if Michigan wins the B1G or comes close and she keeps up her play, I think she has a shot.

-Jazzy Davidson, USC, she's a good darkhorse pick right now as she's starting to find her groove and is an excellent 2 way player. Clear standout on USC and will get exposure in the B1G. Needs to improve efficiency.

Likely not a contender:
-Rori Harmon, Texas, is probably the best 2 way PG in the country but she just doesn't score enough. Definitely a championship level PG though.

-TaNiya Latson, South Carolina, I'm not seeing her as a true candidate. In marquee games she hasn't been a go to offensive player for South Carolina. All of her big games are against bad teams so far.

-Talaysia Cooper, Tennessee, pretty solid statline but Tennessee is underperforming so far

-Kiki Rice/Gianna Kneepkens, UCLA, both have nice numbers but not at 1st Team level IMO.

-Aaliyah Chavez, Oklahoma has put up big games, needs to clean up efficiency though and likely gets outshined by teammate Beers for awards

-Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State, really nice numbers, team needs to be top 10-15 to have a shot though

-Britt Prince, Nebraska, she has the best stats in the country among guards but schedule is weak and likely to come down big time against Big 10 competitions

-Jordan Lee, Texas, excellent 2 way player but isn't going to have stats to merit 1st or 2nd team honors.

-Liv McGill, Florida, crazy stats but Florida likely isn't good enough to garner national attention

-Shay Ciezki, Indiana, same scenario as Live McGill


Also, I'd categorize Madison Booker of Texas as more of a SF, though if we're considering her a guard she's in the top candidates section.

I'm sorry, but what else does Azzi have to do? Oh wait, if she didn't have UCONN on the front of her jersey, you'd be singing her praises. Your anti UCONN bias year in and year out is so tired and forced.

 

[GoChips20]

I'm sorry, but what else does Azzi have to do? Oh wait, if she didn't have UCONN on the front of her jersey, you'd be singing her praises. Your anti UCONN bias year in and year out is so tired and forced.

Azzi has played herself into the favorite for the #1 pick and if UConn ends up the #1 overall seed (highly likely) and/or undefeated, 99% chance she’ll make first-team, but for now, I don’t see anti-UConn bias for favoring the other three guards over her:

Miles: 18.9 ppg / 7.2 reb / 7.6 assists
Hidalgo: 25.5 ppg / 6.3 reb / 5.0 assists
Blakes: 23.9 ppg / 4.0 reb / 3.8 assists
Fudd: 18.1 ppg / 2.8 reb / 2.8 assists

AA discussions always favor individual statistics early in the season. UConn has played a very good SOS but by March it’ll have balanced out with the others based on conference strength.

 

[Reypl21]

Azzi has played herself into the favorite for the #1 pick and if UConn ends up the #1 overall seed (highly likely) and/or undefeated, 99% chance she’ll make first-team, but for now, I don’t see anti-UConn bias for favoring the other three guards over her:

Miles: 18.9 ppg / 7.2 reb / 7.6 assists
Hidalgo: 25.5 ppg / 6.3 reb / 5.0 assists
Blakes: 23.9 ppg / 4.0 reb / 3.8 assists
Fudd: 18.1 ppg / 2.8 reb / 2.8 assists

AA discussions always favor individual statistics early in the season. UConn has played a very good SOS but by March it’ll have balanced out with the others based on conference strength.

Thanks for putting the numbers together. I think Azzi should be an AA over all the guards on that list. Not saying the other 3 shouldn't be All-Americans. Azzi has played a tough OOC and has shown up in big games. She's crazy efficient, and her defense has improved a ton. Miles and Blakes haven't played against elite competition yet. Hannah has had some tough games against the better teams on her schedule.

Azzi should be an AA

 

[DefenseBB]

I get the OOC for many of the players was "cupcake city" and the meat of the conference play will start to separate the players. Yes, Azzi's OOC was much better than most but then her Conference schedule will be an absolute joke while the SEC schedule will be brutal. Miles will not have it as easy as Azzi but the Big12 is NOTHING like the SEC so I expect her numbers to still be pretty strong. The ACC is also not so great but Hidalgo is already a proven 1st AA and that sticks in the voters minds. How Azzi does vs. Hidalgo in the ND game could flip that narrative.

The Top 3 will be Hidalgo (WinShares 3.5), Miles (WS 3.9) and Fudd (WS 2.8). Blakes (WS 3.8) is a longshot depending how she leads Vanderbilt against the likes of SC, Texas, LSU and Oklahoma.

While I do appreciate all the "homerism" that my peer BYers are showing Azzi, analytics and metrics are also important tools to utilize.

You can't just ignore all the good play by other players and try to dismiss it by simply using a "straw man" argument of UConn's OOC schedule.

 

[bballnut90]

I can’t see Hidalgo staying on 1st team if Notre Dame is out of the top 25. Not sure they will, but the Georgia Tech loss is alarming.

 

[DefenseBB]

I can’t see Hidalgo staying on 1st team if Notre Dame is out of the top 25. Not sure they will, but the Georgia Tech loss is alarming.

And they play a resurgent Duke team on Sunday, but that said, she makes that team immeasurably better and the game does require 5 players to contribute to a teams' success. Granted the reason the team is so bereft of talent is partially due to Hannah but that does not diminish what she contributes on the court.

Like I said, I think Azzi controls her own destiny with continued improve play of the peripheral stats-steals, rebounds Assist to Turnover ratio to go along with her outstanding shooting stats. Add in beating Hannah and ND on 1/19 in front of a home crowd and in front of a national audience and "presto" she's on the AP 5 member team.

 

[bballnut90]

And they play a resurgent Duke team on Sunday, but that said, she makes that team immeasurably better and the game does require 5 players to contribute to a teams' success. Granted the reason the team is so bereft of talent is partially due to Hannah but that does not diminish what she contributes on the court.

Like I said, I think Azzi controls her own destiny with continued improve play of the peripheral stats-steals, rebounds Assist to Turnover ratio to go along with her outstanding shooting stats. Add in beating Hannah and ND on 1/19 in front of a home crowd and in front of a national audience and "presto" she's on the AP 5 member team.

Hidalgo is great but it's quite rare that a player will earn 1st Team AP honors if their team isn't in the top 25. The last time it happened was in 2015-16 when Rachel Banham made a team and 2014-15 when Amanda Zahui-B did, but both of those seasons lacked major individual standouts where this season (so far) the depth of talent looks much stronger. Hidalgo has the stats and name recognition to command a spot, 25.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 6.1 steals on 48.6% shooting and almost a 2/1 A/TO ratio is otherworldly. I've read she's been taking too many gambles going for steals which in turn leads to easy buckets for her opponents. Something like that doesn't show up in stats but is a detractor to team success, even if individual stats is great. I think she's a borderline 1st/2nd team player right now.

Fudd's body of work is 1st team caliber since she's played well in every big game and has been an efficient scorer. She doesn't do as much for her team as others guards (partially by design), so her non-scoring stats aren't great, but she's developed a reputation for being a high level defender and has name recognition. These awards are heavily based on stats, so I think Olivia Miles/Mikayla Blakes are ahead right now but whether they can maintain that edge in conference play is a huge unknown. By season's end I wouldn't be surprised if Fudd is ahead of both, especially with big showings against Notre Dame and Tennessee.

Jazzy Davidson is another player who is quietly moving up the ranks. I think she's a long shot for 1st Team honors but could be a good dark horse pick for 2nd or 3rd. Her efficiency isn't there yet but she's stuffing stat sheets like Sarah Strong did her freshman year.