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Post-Depaul and State of the Duke program

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CamrnCrz1974

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What I posted on The Devil's Den:

As for yesterday's game and my assessment as to the state of the program...

First, congratulations to the seniors on their accomplishments and accolades (both on and off the court) in their four years. They were the highest rated recruiting class ever signed by Duke, in terms of overall ranking and depth. We will miss all five seniors.

Second, losing two starting guards is awful. Just awful. No doubt about it.

But what bothers me is when McCallie makes statements like this (after the brackets were announced):

If No. 2 Duke and the top-seeded Huskies both win their first three NCAA tournament games they'll meet in regional finals with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

That doesn't seem fair to McCallie.
"To me that is kind of fascinating," she said. "What, are we trying to do, keep Duke out of the Final Four?"


"We should have been the number one two seed," McCallie said. "Look at the numbers."
It's "like, c'mon people, wake up," McCallie said. "Look at these things scientifically. Have an objective reality. What's going on with this? Does RPI matter at all? Does strength of schedule matter at all? ... I have to stand up for this team."



It was if she was setting up a reason for Duke not to make the Final Four and to temper expectations, under the guise of standing up for her team. To get the Final Four, you have to beat good teams. During her tenure at Duke, McCallie has been unable to do that in the Elite Eight, with two games were her team scored in the 40s, three double digit losses, and being blown out in the second halves.

Getting to the Final Four is a privilege, not a right. And based on the team's performances in the Elite Eight, there is no conspiracy to keep Duke out of the Final Four; the team is simply not showing up in the way that it needs to in order to defeat a really good opponent. Remember, in every year that Duke lost in the Elite Eight, the winning opponent went on to lose the next game in the Final Four; Duke did not lose to the national champion or even the runner-up in any of those years.

Putting aside the previous issues with her Twitter posts and her post-game press conference idiosyncrasies, her statements about the Final Four look silly when 2nd seeded Duke loses a home game to 7th seeded DePaul.

Yes, there were injuries. Yes, the injuries depleted the backcourt. But McCallie acts as if the players needed to develop ballhandling skills now - in an interview, she stated that Richa Jackson, Tricia Liston and even Haley Peters would need to know how to handle at the next level so it was important for them to step up and handle now. If that is the case, why were they not more developed in practice and in games before last quarter of their senior seasons? Ka'lia Johnson was brought in as a point guard; why weren't her skillls developed in practice (if not in games), especially when she had to face Jones and Gray in practice?

DePaul had an incredible game plan. But DePaul has a very similar style from year to year. Doug Bruno likes pressing teams who can shoot, employing a 4-out, 1-in offense or using four guards and one post player to spread the floor. The team should have been prepared for this.

In addition, while Doug Bruno had a great year, the Blue Demons were not an elite team. DePaul did not defeat a single ranked team all year, until Duke. DePaul had only played two ranked teams (losing on the road to Notre Dame by 16 and losing at home to Kentucky by 11). The team gave up 100 points to Oklahoma in the first round. And this was a game on Duke's home floor.

Better yet, why did McCallie not make the necessary in-game adjustments? As RobC noted, why did she not to the triple post offense much earlier than she did and why did she then abandon it? Why was McCallie so unwilling to accept that the post-oriented nature of her current roster of available players, go big, stay with shooters, and force DePaul to try and go inside, where the team was ineffective?

In other words, her public statements created an excuse, just in case something like this happened. Losing two guards was awful. But even with the losses of Gray and Jones, Duke should have won yesterday's game. Duke did not lose because Gray and Jones did not play; Duke lost because of McCallie's coaching, her questionable decisions, and her failure to make the necessary adjustments.

There have been injuries the past two years to Chelsea Gray. This year, there was Alexis Jones as well. And there have been other injuries to other players. If the players keep getting injured and the injuries are excessive (which they have been in recent years), the problem might be with the strength and conditioning program that McCallie has implemented. Building a team for strength and not preparing the players to be in "basketball shape" and conditioning for an up-tempo, stop-start game will lead to injuries. There needs to be a balance, and the current training program is not only not working, it is a contributing factor to the barrage of injuries.

In her seventh season, McCallie's predecessor took a program from the bottom of the ACC to the Final Four. The program then made the Elite Eight seven times, with four Final Four appearances and two national championship games in her predecessor's last ten years.

McCallie inherited a roster of eight McDonald's All-Americans over four classes. Think about that - with 24 McDonald's All-Americans each year and 96 for the four years, McCallie came to Duke with 12 percent of the entire country's top players at her disposal. And McCallie has had her assistants constantly recruiting and even McCallie herself was very active in the recruitment of certain players (e.g., Elizabeth Williams). The recruiting under McCallie is at the highest levels in program history. Yet McCallie's seven seasons, there are not just zero Final Four appearances (and constant regular season blowouts against elite opponents); there are also two losses in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and the two losses occurred as a top-two seed).

There are always reasons/explanations/excuses for a certain performance on an annual basis. But in the aggregate, there is only one common theme. McCallie has amassed a great winning percentage at Duke and has won four ACC titles. But Duke is not a truly elite program and has not been a truly elite program under her watch.
 

sarals24

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I genuinely like the Duke fans, and read your board often. It's interesting to see how few supporters JPM has left...clearly she can recruit, although I'm pretty sure getting a Duke degree is a huge part of that draw, but she really can't coach talent. Elizabeth Williams is a prime example. With her athleticism, she should really be dominating....pretty much everyone not named Griner. But she hasn't been the player she should be based on her HS ranking and NFOY award (which I still think should have gone to KML).

I am also amazed that the university hasn't shut down her Twitter profile.
 

KnightBridgeAZ

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Which begs the question - must Duke be an elite program? And if so, one of may great issues considering there are very few of them - exactly who out there appears poised to do better?

I don't know the answer. I get involved in similar discussions at times on the RU board (as a pro CVS person and the anti folks are far more nasty than you would believe). My argument there regarding RU is also focused on the issue of how realistically, one could "guarantee" in any way better times ahead.
 

Wbbfan1

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Good Read Cam, but I don't think its going to make a difference to Coach K and the Athletic Department. Coach P is not going anywhere, its a question will the Athletic Department force her to hire a new assistant coach that knows basketball and able to make in game adjustments. Then most importantly will Coach P listen to this coach. Based on how her assistants leave to go to other schools in lateral transfers, I suspect not.
 
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When she was on the podcast, many questioned her answers and tone all the way back in December, the way they seemed defeatist and that was with Jones still healthy.

It is troubling for sure; you see coaches like Mulkey embracing the challenge, and you see Coach McCallie complaining about a plot to keep her team from the final four.
 

HuskyFan1125

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Thanks Cam!

Good read. I do think you are stuck with JPM unless she quits herself.

It's silly to think because its not like Duke has bad seasons. I mean you guys have made it to the elite eight. Thats more than so many other teams and you constantly have a winning season (ACC Regular Season/Tourney Champs under JPM), yet to the Duke fans that isn't enough.

Honestly I think next year will be a tough year for you guys. Losing Liston/Peters/Jackson will hurt but no having any sorta back court except for 2 people returning from ACL's, ouch!
 

sarals24

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Good Read Cam, but I don't think its going to make a difference to Coach K and the Athletic Department. Coach P is not going anywhere, its a question will the Athletic Department force her to hire a new assistant coach that knows basketball and able to make in game adjustments. Then most importantly will Coach P listen to this coach. Based on how her assistants leave to go to other schools in lateral transfers, I suspect not.
There was a passage in McCallie's book I think, I saw it on the Duke board (or possibly here) about assistant coaches...basically, they should be seen and not heard, and not speak up around McCallie because she knows best. No wonder her assistants have left what should be a dream job at Duke to make lateral moves.
 

Wbbfan1

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Vivian did a great job this year and Rutgers definitely exceeded my expectations even if they didn't make the tournament. However, there's Return of Investment, and IMHO Vivian is not worth what Rutgers is paying her. If I'm the Rutgers AD and Vivian is not willing to take a substantial cut in pay, then I go in another direction and hire a younger dynamic coach for the long term. Not sure if Rutgers can become the "Crown Jewell of the B10" :) , but they should be able to be one of the elite teams in the B10. New Jersey produces enough talent to enable this to happen. In recent years, B10 schools are starting to hire Dynamic Coaches, its time for Rutgers to do the same.


Which begs the question - must Duke be an elite program? And if so, one of may great issues considering there are very few of them - exactly who out there appears poised to do better?

I don't know the answer. I get involved in similar discussions at times on the RU board (as a pro CVS person and the anti folks are far more nasty than you would believe). My argument there regarding RU is also focused on the issue of how realistically, one could "guarantee" in any way better times ahead.
 
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So, which coach(es) (ones who might consider taking over the program) would you consider replacing Coach P. The expectations with the quality of players Duke recruits would be final four nearly every year and multiple national championships over the next 10 years. Maybe someone like Walz if Duke were willing to pay him enough and he were willing to switch positions.
 

MilfordHusky

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Well put, Cam. You obviously know the Duke program better than I, but I agree with everything you have written. Duke beat us in OT and at the buzzer, plus gave us a good scare with a strong comeback, in Gail's tenure. Though she often had a deer-in-the-headlights look, Gail had far more success than JPM has. I know the injuries hurt, but Duke lost 4 games at Cameron this year. With the healthy talent they still have, that's very weak.
 

ChicagoGG

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Excellent read. Cam. The team deserved better coaching than they got. Too much talent for those kids to go home early and disappointed.
 

HGN

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The Dukies are going to be fine.....Its just that Coach McCallie can't seem to win when one thinks she should. The talent is there , I think , but the in-game coaching has lacked a bit.

And get ready Dukies , winning your Conference and Tournament is going to get even harder with the Irish around.
 

pap49cba

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Great read Cam. I know you didn't mention it but I am totally puzzled by the Chloe Wells episode. Nothing was ever said publicly and she did not participate in Senior Night. It was like she just disappeared.

Also, you will perhaps know that I follow a lot of different twitter feeds of people connected to the game and I must say I have not seen another coach who tweets the volume of gibberish that JPM does.
 

UcMiami

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Nice post Cam and pretty balanced. And I definitely agree about the whining related to NCAA seeding and assignments. I think it is very bad form for coaches to go there. Let the fans scream all they want, the coaches job is to get her team ready to compete and starting out by publicly complaining sends the wrong message to the players. Kim did that vociferously when Baylor and TA&M were matched up and ... lost the game as the favorite.
That isn't to say a coach like Walz isn't using the '3 seed' needle on his team to get them fired up, but he isn't complaint about who he has to play in the press or to his players.
And as others say ... I think you are stuck with her. And she doesn't seem to 'play nicely' with her assistants which means you are unlikely to get dynamic assistants to stick around and help.
 

MilfordHusky

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The Dukies are going to be fine.....Its just that Coach McCallie can't seem to win when one thinks she should. The talent is there , I think , but the in-game coaching has lacked a bit.

And get ready Dukies , winning your Conference and Tournament is going to get even harder with the Irish around.
I don't see Duke beating ND for anything meaningful for a few years or more.
 
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Nice post Cam! Here is the thing I don't understand....what happen to the coach who led Michigan St. to the Final 4 with a team that relativly speaking had not much talent on it and led same Michigan St. team to give UConn one of its most humiliating losses during the "dark ages" (2005-2007)?
 

KnightBridgeAZ

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Vivian did a great job this year and Rutgers definitely exceeded my expectations even if they didn't make the tournament. However, there's Return of Investment, and IMHO Vivian is not worth what Rutgers is paying her. If I'm the Rutgers AD and Vivian is not willing to take a substantial cut in pay, then I go in another direction and hire a younger dynamic coach for the long term. Not sure if Rutgers can become the "Crown Jewell of the B10" :) , but they should be able to be one of the elite teams in the B10. New Jersey produces enough talent to enable this to happen. In recent years, B10 schools are starting to hire Dynamic Coaches, its time for Rutgers to do the same.
Everyone on the RU board that wants to keep Vivian, myself included, agrees that an incentive laden contract is in order, and is supposedly about done.
 
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Has Duke considered trying to get one of the former men's players to coach? Coach K has had success grooming future coaches. As we've seen with Geno a guy who is willing to coach the players with no regard for gender can have great success.
 

RandomFan85

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Nice post Cam. As a realistic LV fan, I feel your pain. We continue to haul in highly related prospects, but have yet to show any level of competitiveness with teams that are truly elite. Obviously the big difference here is that Holly is not even two full years in yet. If you look at her total body of work in two years, (1 SEC Regular Season Champ, 1 SEC Tourney Champ, 1 EE, another post season run in progress) it doesn't look bad at all. But like you, I would love to see my program back at that elite level.
 
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What I posted on The Devil's Den:

As for yesterday's game and my assessment as to the state of the program...

First, congratulations to the seniors on their accomplishments and accolades (both on and off the court) in their four years. They were the highest rated recruiting class ever signed by Duke, in terms of overall ranking and depth. We will miss all five seniors.

Second, losing two starting guards is awful. Just awful. No doubt about it.

But what bothers me is when McCallie makes statements like this (after the brackets were announced):

If No. 2 Duke and the top-seeded Huskies both win their first three NCAA tournament games they'll meet in regional finals with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

That doesn't seem fair to McCallie.
"To me that is kind of fascinating," she said. "What, are we trying to do, keep Duke out of the Final Four?"


"We should have been the number one two seed," McCallie said. "Look at the numbers."
It's "like, c'mon people, wake up," McCallie said. "Look at these things scientifically. Have an objective reality. What's going on with this? Does RPI matter at all? Does strength of schedule matter at all? ... I have to stand up for this team."



It was if she was setting up a reason for Duke not to make the Final Four and to temper expectations, under the guise of standing up for her team. To get the Final Four, you have to beat good teams. During her tenure at Duke, McCallie has been unable to do that in the Elite Eight, with two games were her team scored in the 40s, three double digit losses, and being blown out in the second halves.

Getting to the Final Four is a privilege, not a right. And based on the team's performances in the Elite Eight, there is no conspiracy to keep Duke out of the Final Four; the team is simply not showing up in the way that it needs to in order to defeat a really good opponent. Remember, in every year that Duke lost in the Elite Eight, the winning opponent went on to lose the next game in the Final Four; Duke did not lose to the national champion or even the runner-up in any of those years.

Putting aside the previous issues with her Twitter posts and her post-game press conference idiosyncrasies, her statements about the Final Four look silly when 2nd seeded Duke loses a home game to 7th seeded DePaul.

Yes, there were injuries. Yes, the injuries depleted the backcourt. But McCallie acts as if the players needed to develop ballhandling skills now - in an interview, she stated that Richa Jackson, Tricia Liston and even Haley Peters would need to know how to handle at the next level so it was important for them to step up and handle now. If that is the case, why were they not more developed in practice and in games before last quarter of their senior seasons? Ka'lia Johnson was brought in as a point guard; why weren't her skillls developed in practice (if not in games), especially when she had to face Jones and Gray in practice?

DePaul had an incredible game plan. But DePaul has a very similar style from year to year. Doug Bruno likes pressing teams who can shoot, employing a 4-out, 1-in offense or using four guards and one post player to spread the floor. The team should have been prepared for this.

In addition, while Doug Bruno had a great year, the Blue Demons were not an elite team. DePaul did not defeat a single ranked team all year, until Duke. DePaul had only played two ranked teams (losing on the road to Notre Dame by 16 and losing at home to Kentucky by 11). The team gave up 100 points to Oklahoma in the first round. And this was a game on Duke's home floor.

Better yet, why did McCallie not make the necessary in-game adjustments? As RobC noted, why did she not to the triple post offense much earlier than she did and why did she then abandon it? Why was McCallie so unwilling to accept that the post-oriented nature of her current roster of available players, go big, stay with shooters, and force DePaul to try and go inside, where the team was ineffective?

In other words, her public statements created an excuse, just in case something like this happened. Losing two guards was awful. But even with the losses of Gray and Jones, Duke should have won yesterday's game. Duke did not lose because Gray and Jones did not play; Duke lost because of McCallie's coaching, her questionable decisions, and her failure to make the necessary adjustments.

There have been injuries the past two years to Chelsea Gray. This year, there was Alexis Jones as well. And there have been other injuries to other players. If the players keep getting injured and the injuries are excessive (which they have been in recent years), the problem might be with the strength and conditioning program that McCallie has implemented. Building a team for strength and not preparing the players to be in "basketball shape" and conditioning for an up-tempo, stop-start game will lead to injuries. There needs to be a balance, and the current training program is not only not working, it is a contributing factor to the barrage of injuries.

In her seventh season, McCallie's predecessor took a program from the bottom of the ACC to the Final Four. The program then made the Elite Eight seven times, with four Final Four appearances and two national championship games in her predecessor's last ten years.

McCallie inherited a roster of eight McDonald's All-Americans over four classes. Think about that - with 24 McDonald's All-Americans each year and 96 for the four years, McCallie came to Duke with 12 percent of the entire country's top players at her disposal. And McCallie has had her assistants constantly recruiting and even McCallie herself was very active in the recruitment of certain players (e.g., Elizabeth Williams). The recruiting under McCallie is at the highest levels in program history. Yet McCallie's seven seasons, there are not just zero Final Four appearances (and constant regular season blowouts against elite opponents); there are also two losses in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and the two losses occurred as a top-two seed).

There are always reasons/explanations/excuses for a certain performance on an annual basis. But in the aggregate, there is only one common theme. McCallie has amassed a great winning percentage at Duke and has won four ACC titles. But Duke is not a truly elite program and has not been a truly elite program under her watch.
 
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My head is spinning trying to follow your math about the AA recruits going to duke over her tenure. Can you re post your math and logic?
 

UcMiami

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Along the lines of the moaning about seeding and regional assignments ... I find the reactions of St. Joe's coach and players so refreshing, the reaction of BYU - 'we really want to play Uconn' - and even the interview Lobo did with Shonni - 'even though you lose you learn so much from playing Uconn, I love playing those guys' is the attitude you have to instill in players. Now it is easier to do that when you have a snowball's chance in hell of beating Uconn but if you come in whining you don't even have that. And BYU has just dispatched two higher seeds, and Louisville definitely has designs on the FF.
 

EricLA

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As always, Cam, great post. I know you are frustrated. As we've discussed before, mainly because of you, I've become a Duke women's fan. I think it would be difficult for the administration to make any kind of change at the top - it would be different if you were at full strength and lost to Depaul, but there always seems to be reasons and excuses, and if anyone on the administration has half a basketball brain, they will realize the things that knowledgeable fans such as yourself are saying indicate that McCallie is not a great coach. But would they ever have the guts to make a change?

Duke could almost land any coach in the country. Honestly, I think it's THE premier HC gig in WCBB. ND may be a close 2nd. It seems to me that tOSU hit a home run hiring McGuff and Duke could take a page out of their book if they decided to make a change. There are some outstanding young coaches who have achieved some incredible results at their current "mid-major" type of programs. Cori Close is another great example - in her 3rd year at UCLA, she landed not only the #1 class in the nation, but the best class in UCLA history. And she wasn't even a HC before coming back to UCLA - she was the Chris Dailey of Florida State.

You know I'm rooting for Duke. The revolving door issues with their asst coaches hasn't done anything to curb the parade of talent that commits there, but it certainly hasn't done anything to improve the atmosphere or coaching strategies. And honestly, I've never heard of Al Brown, Hernando Planells, or Candace Jackson before. I guess Planells and Jackson are the recruiting coordinators and Brown as the Associate Head Coach (like Dailey)? He looks to be about 150 years old and while he may have a lot of knowledge, I'm not sure he brings a lot of new ideas or an infusion of coaching energy to the table. But that's just a random observation, not any kind of knowledgeable analysis.

This will be interesting to watch over the coming months. I wonder if Duke will make any hard decisions, or if they will continue as is - sort of mired in a level of top 10 mediocrity and unable to really reach any kind of elite status...

Last note - you guys did land a really good class for 2014. Belton is top 10, Calhoun is top 15'ish, Stevens is top 25, and Mathias is top 50. That's just per HG - not sure where they fall on ASGR or BS. So it's not like McCallie and her staff can't recruit. But given where GG took them, round of 32, sweet 16, or even elite 8 appearances aren't enough...
 
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BRS24

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And honestly, I've never heard of Al Brown, Hernando Planells, or Candace Jackson before. I guess Planells and Jackson are the recruiting coordinators and Brown as the Associate Head Coach (like Dailey)? He looks to be about 150 years old and while he may have a lot of knowledge, I'm not sure he brings a lot of new ideas or an infusion of coaching energy to the table. But that's just a random observation, not any kind of knowledgeable analysis.

Al Brown spent a bit of time at TN, and there are some good quotes from Geno in a book, about Al taking notes during an NCAA practice, so Geno threw some sets in there that he wasn't going to use in the games.

Interesting quote in his bio - 'Brown has produced numerous winning teams and is widely considered one of the best basketball minds in the game today."

The way I read the bio, he's a career assistant.
 

Adesmar123

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What I posted on The Devil's Den:

hat doesn't seem fair to McCallie.
"To me that is kind of fascinating," she said. "What, are we trying to do, keep Duke out of the Final Four?"


". "Look at these things scientifically. Have an objective reality. What's going on with this? Does RPI matter at all? Does strength of schedule matter at all? ... I have to stand up for this team.

When I first heard the JPM quote my first thought was that she must have a huge FF bonus in her contract. She was protesting how the NCAA conspired against her not to get her bonus.

Maybe she needs to try to make Duke the Jewel of the East. That has a whole different meaning now.
 
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