Possible Big 12 Invite rumors

[MuchoDogYears]

Is it though?

Yeah, joining the same Big 12 that saw its top two brands Oklahoma and Texas leave is boarding a ship that’s taking on water.

With UT and OK gone, the best remaining Big 12 programs are without a doubt going to look to jump ship when/if offered. Let’s not forget that Nebraska and Colorado, two major Big 12 programs, also left for greener pastures.

The Big 12 five years from now won’t resemble anything like todays Big 12. The handwriting’s on the wall and the remaining traditional Big 12 programs, Ok St, Iowa St, Kansas, etc all understand the situation as they watch schools like Cincy replace Texas…and have one eye on the exit door.

Yeah I get it that for a couple years, if UConn takes the offer, the money will be great…then poof the party will crash and it’ll be WTF were we thinking! We left the BIg East which prepped us to win national championships for a no identity P5 sinking ship of a disaster conference.

I’m solidly in the camp of only leaving the Big East if the B1G offers.

 

[metsfan2323]

Ok St, Iowa St, Kansas, etc all understand the situation as they watch schools like Cincy replace Texas…and have one eye on the exit door.

The only B12 school that might get a B1G offer is Kansas and even that might never happen. Iowa St, Kstate, and OKC state are going nowhere, and neither are the Texas directional schools. Going forward the B12 should actually be pretty stable, it will survive and likely continue to add schools. Also the new B12 just signed a lucrative new TV deal and put a team in the football championship game.

Also basketball centric Kansas might prefer to stay in the B12 where they are the Big Fish in a superior basketball league than the B1G, especially if UCONN were added,

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The problem with looking at the last 10 years of Big 12 basketball is that it included Oklahoma and Texas, which are not only top football schools but which have also been very good basketball schools in that decade. Texas average rank in Ken Pom at season’s end is 34.2 and Oklahoma’s is 35.5. Replacing them with UCF, Cincy, Houston, and BYU weakens Big XII basketball.they are not the same conference going forward as they have been.

The other problem with Ken Pom’s ranking the Big XII as the best basketball conference is that it’s based on computer analysis of the entire season. Because college sports is about developing players and teams over the course of a year to championship competition at the end of the season, performance in the tournament matters more than what teams did early in the season. The Big XII has simply not played like the best conference in March. Here are their teams who have reached the Final Four over the past decade:

2013 -
2014 -
2015 -
2016 - Oklahoma (leaving)
2017 -
2018 - Kansas
2019 - Texas Tech
2020 - CANCELLED
2021 - Baylor
2022 - Kansas
2023 -

I went back to 2013 to have 10 tournaments. 5 teams to the Final Four and 2 national champs doesn’t strike me as what I would expect of the best conference in the country. In contrast, the ACC sent 9 teams to the Final 4 and won 3 national champs in that same decade. The Big East went to 5 Final 4’s and won 4 national champs in the same decade.

You do realize that the last two on the list won the title. Take UConn out of the equation (similar to UT & OU) the two conferences have the same number of titles and final four appearances, and more schools having done so.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Have you been to Houston?

I've heard Eweconn lives there.

 

[aburks41]

The only B12 school that might get a B1G offer is Kansas and even that might never happen. Iowa St, Kstate, and OKC state are going nowhere, and neither are the Texas directional schools. Going forward the B12 should actually be pretty stable, it will survive and likely continue to add schools. Also the new B12 just signed a lucrative new TV deal and put a team in the football championship game.

Also basketball centric Kansas might prefer to stay in the B12 where they are the Big Fish in a superior basketball league than the B1G, especially if UCONN were added,

Can Kansas go anywhere without Kansas State? State politics might block that.

That is UNC’s big issue right now (besides the GOR). North Carolina state legislature will not let UNC get a lifeline from the B1G or SEC unless NC State also has a home.

 

[Zissou]

Can Kansas go anywhere without Kansas State? State politics might block that.

That is UNC’s big issue right now (besides the GOR). North Carolina state legislature will not let UNC get a lifeline from the B1G or SEC unless NC State also has a home.

Said Oklahoma State

 

[Zissou]

Well, they'll still have 3 in NC. Got that cornered.

They have 4

 

[noeynox]

The only B12 school that might get a B1G offer is Kansas and even that might never happen. Iowa St, Kstate, and OKC state are going nowhere, and neither are the Texas directional schools. Going forward the B12 should actually be pretty stable, it will survive and likely continue to add schools. Also the new B12 just signed a lucrative new TV deal and put a team in the football championship game.

Also basketball centric Kansas might prefer to stay in the B12 where they are the Big Fish in a superior basketball league than the B1G, especially if UCONN were added,

People will twist themselves into pretzels to justify the wrong move.

 

[upstater]

Well, they'll still have 3 in NC. Got that cornered.

They'd have a big school in Virginia, one in Southern Florida, one in Atlanta. That's all pretty good for them.

Miami > Oklahoma St
Duke > Kansas
Virginia Tech > Texas Tech
NC State > Baylor
etc.

 

[upstater]

They have 4

??

We're talking about UNC leaving for the B1G

 

[upstater]

Yeah, joining the same Big 12 that saw its top two brands Oklahoma and Texas leave is boarding a ship that’s taking on water.

With UT and OK gone, the best remaining Big 12 programs are without a doubt going to look to jump ship when/if offered. Let’s not forget that Nebraska and Colorado, two major Big 12 programs, also left for greener pastures.

The Big 12 five years from now won’t resemble anything like todays Big 12. The handwriting’s on the wall and the remaining traditional Big 12 programs, Ok St, Iowa St, Kansas, etc all understand the situation as they watch schools like Cincy replace Texas…and have one eye on the exit door.

Yeah I get it that for a couple years, if UConn takes the offer, the money will be great…then poof the party will crash and it’ll be WTF were we thinking! We left the BIg East which prepped us to win national championships for a no identity P5 sinking ship of a disaster conference.

I’m solidly in the camp of only leaving the Big East if the B1G offers.

If the money vanishes, it will vanish for ALL these schools. And I'd argue a league full of the current ACC or B12 schools w/o the big paychecks is probably better than a league of Catholic schools with a fraction of those paychecks.

The BE right now is the beneficiary of some great coaching, but that advantage will erode given the money situation. And it's only a temporary thing anyway.

 

[Zissou]

??

We're talking about UNC leaving for the B1G

Ok got it. I was thinking both UNC and State are in the “7” exploring conference dissolution / breaking the GOR. So 4 going to 2.

 

[HuskyHawk]

If I’m UConn, my first (realistic) choice is the ACC. Accept that straight away. If the Big 12 offers, you accept that too. But if you think that’s happening, be on the phone to the ACC and say “last chance”. I think both conferences will survive and be fine. The PAC is doomed. The ACC is just a much better fit for obvious reasons.

 

[navery12]

The problem with looking at the last 10 years of Big 12 basketball is that it included Oklahoma and Texas, which are not only top football schools but which have also been very good basketball schools in that decade. Texas average rank in Ken Pom at season’s end is 34.2 and Oklahoma’s is 35.5. Replacing them with UCF, Cincy, Houston, and BYU weakens Big XII basketball.they are not the same conference going forward as they have been.

The other problem with Ken Pom’s ranking the Big XII as the best basketball conference is that it’s based on computer analysis of the entire season. Because college sports is about developing players and teams over the course of a year to championship competition at the end of the season, performance in the tournament matters more than what teams did early in the season. The Big XII has simply not played like the best conference in March. Here are their teams who have reached the Final Four over the past decade:

2013 -
2014 -
2015 -
2016 - Oklahoma (leaving)
2017 -
2018 - Kansas
2019 - Texas Tech
2020 - CANCELLED
2021 - Baylor
2022 - Kansas
2023 -

I went back to 2013 to have 10 tournaments. 5 teams to the Final Four and 2 national champs doesn’t strike me as what I would expect of the best conference in the country. In contrast, the ACC sent 9 teams to the Final 4 and won 3 national champs in that same decade. The Big East went to 5 Final 4’s and won 4 national champs in the same decade.

You put a lot of thought into being wrong so I'll give you that. But for basketball specifically, Texas and Oklahoma out and Houston/Cincinnati/BYU/UCF in is a net positive

 

[upstater]

Ok got it. I was thinking both UNC and State are in the “7” exploring conference dissolution / breaking the GOR. So 4 going to 2.

They are in the 7 but almost nobody I know predicts these 7 will find a landing spot. At best, some of the 7 know they won't but think there's an advantage to dissolution (like redoing the TV contracts, which makes sense).

My prediction is 3 or 4 going to the SEC and B1G. ND would be available as well.

 

[aburks41]

Said Oklahoma State

That’s why I was asking the question. It’s an issue for UNC. Would it be an issue for Kansas?

But let’s not pretend like Kansas and Oklahoma were in the same situation

 

[Zissou]

big 12

 

[B1GEast]

Big 10 map with USC & UCLA

 

[Otselic]

Didn't they also speak to Gonzaga ? It'll be a home run if they added Uconn , Gonzaga, St. John's , Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton. Don't think Uconn is a NY team, it's not. You fill up MSG a couple times a year , other than that Uconn gets no press coverage in NY at all. It's the same with Syracuse.They add St. John's, the other Big East City markets and then you have a lot more News Coverage. St. John's fans would watch Uconn football on TV. Uconn will end up like Syracuse,Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers if they go away by themselves.

 

[Billy Jack]

You do realize that the last two on the list won the title. Take UConn out of the equation (similar to UT & OU) the two conferences have the same number of titles and final four appearances, and more schools having done so.

And what happens if you take Kansas out of the Big XII, which could also happen?

You’re reinforcing the point I made which is that the claim that the Big XII is the best basketball conference and then using the last 10 years to support that argument is looking in the rear view mirror and ignoring that we’re in a period of flux as we go forward into the next 10 years.

 

[Forte]

If I’m UConn, my first (realistic) choice is the ACC. Accept that straight away. If the Big 12 offers, you accept that too. But if you think that’s happening, be on the phone to the ACC and say “last chance”. I think both conferences will survive and be fine. The PAC is doomed. The ACC is just a much better fit for obvious reasons.

The ACC is no longer a first-choice option. They are screwed with their contract and GOR which sounds like it's going to break. Why would we jump from an abandoned island onto a sinking ship? With the timing and contracts of the ACC vs. Big 12 its much more likely the Big 12 poaches ACC teams when/if Notre Dame dip and SEC pickings take off the rest of the rats scurry. That means the Big 12 is much more likely to get Pitt, Cuse and a few others that would suddenly, along with WVU align regionally with UConn. Why would we want to pounce into an unstable ACC only to watch the reasons we jumped over to take off for greener pastures?

Also, as much as we all love the Big East it needs to be keep in mind Big 12 is exploring taking Nova, Georgetown, St John as well as (non BEAST Gonzaga) for Bball only. Just rumor at this point but it is whispered that along with trying aquire BEAST teams are looking at MSG for a future conference tourney. The upside of the Big12 due to timing and contract puts it at a great advantage.

 

[Billy Jack]

What is Houston's average EOY rank in Kenpom in the last 10 years?

Houston’s EOY rank in Ken Pom over the last 10 years is 51.3.

But I get your point that if you can replace TX and OK with similar programs, their claim to being the best basketball conference remains just as strong. The problem is that they’re replacing 2 programs with 4. To remain as strong a basketball conference, all 4 of those new programs have to be as good as TX and OK have been or they’re simply watering down the conference. It’s not enough to simply replace TX with Houston - which doesn’t work anyway because Houston hasn’t been as good over the long hall - but you also have to show that UCF is as good as the rest of the league or they become a drag on their power rating.

 

[Punkbo]

A few thoughts from the comments above: The Big 12 would be crazy to take basketball-only schools into a football conference. We know first-hand that model doesn’t work. And let’s not be mistaken, the Big 12 is not an academic conference.

I’m an old school guy and love the Big East. I hate the current “chase the money” mentality in college athletics, but that’s the new reality. We need the money to compete. If the Big 12 comes calling, we accept immediately. Hello new world order!

 

[Billy Jack]

The ACC is no longer a first-choice option. They are screwed with their contract and GOR which sounds like it's going to break. Why would we jump from an abandoned island onto a sinking ship? With the timing and contracts of the ACC vs. Big 12 its much more likely the Big 12 poaches ACC teams when/if Notre Dame dip and SEC pickings take off the rest of the rats scurry. That means the Big 12 is much more likely to get Pitt, Cuse and a few others that would suddenly, along with WVU align regionally with UConn. Why would we want to pounce into an unstable ACC only to watch the reasons we jumped over to take off for greener pastures?

Also, as much as we all love the Big East it needs to be keep in mind Big 12 is exploring taking Nova, Georgetown, St John as well as (non BEAST Gonzaga) for Bball only. Just rumor at this point but it is whispered that along with trying aquire BEAST teams are looking at MSG for a future conference tourney. The upside of the Big12 due to timing and contract puts it at a great advantage.

Despite rumors to the contrary, there have been several articles by business lawyers over the past several years that the very simplicity of the GOR makes it impossible to break. Not surprising that there are schools which are investigating how to get around it, but it will be surprising if they find a way to do so.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A few thoughts from the comments above: The Big 12 would be crazy to take basketball-only schools into a football conference. We know first-hand that model doesn’t work. And let’s not be mistaken, the Big 12 is not an academic conference.

I’m an old school guy and love the Big East. I hate the current “chase the money” mentality in college athletics, but that’s the new reality. We need the money to compete. If the Big 12 comes calling, we accept immediately. Hello new world order!

We don't know anything close to it not working. The Old Big East came apart because ESPN wanted it to come apart. It was a stupid, short-sighted strategy to try to pressure the Big East to take less money on a single contract. It unleashed forces that now have ESPN on the verge of getting cut out of college athletics broadcasting entirely. I am certain that if ESPN could turn back the clock, they would have handled the Big East situation very differently.