Points and starters next season...

[EricLA]

To follow up on another thread, figured I'd start the guessing on PPG and who the starters would be. I think Moriah, Bria, KML, Breanna and Stef. Can't imagine there would be TOO much disagreement unless maybe you think Tuck might start over Moriah, as she did at times this year. As for PPG...

Stewie - 19 - I'm thinking she picks right up where she left off in the NC run. She averaged 20.8 over the 5 games (sat out the first game) and got stronger as the tourney went on (14,17,21,29,23 in order)
KML - 18 - Best pure shooter ever when her career is over is possible
Bria - 14 - I'm thinking she's back at top form
Stef - 13 - I think the offense runs thru her, but she's such a good passer her PPG may "suffer"
Morgan - 8 - Solid player, solid numbers
Brianna - 7 - She was averaging 8 before her injury. I think it takes time for her to really come back
Moriah - 6 - We have seen she CAN score. If she really improves her 3 point shooting this could rise.
Kiah - 5 - only averaged 3 PPG this year but I think a more aggressive mindset and a season free of injuries helps a lot
Saniya - 4 - I'm thinking she does more passing than scoring her first year
Becca - 1 - I know nothing about her except she's a hard worker and wants to be on the team. Buck averaged 0.8 PPG this past season and I guess I could see #'s like that...

I know that averages 95, but I have a hard time figuring out where it will be less... If everyone ONLY averages 1 PPG more and Stewie goes for 19, that puts us at 85 and adding 5 for the newbies puts it at 90. Bria averaged only 10 PPG and I think that goes up at least 4-5 points.

Morgan averaged 6.4 and that includes a decent period where she was injured and working on coming back from the injury. It's not like I guestimated any of them doubling their output. Last season they averaged 82.5 PPG...

They could break a lot of records scoring next season...

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Good post.

I think Moriah too but Tuck would most definatly be the 1st person off the bench in any scenario.

With that said, it could be like this season where the starters depends on matchups. Although I think teams will be struggling to match up with us.

PPG....I am never any good at that guessing game so I say it looks good to me.

 

[EricLA]

More interesting statistics

Stewie averaged 13.8 PPG during the regular season. In the 5 tournament games, she averaged 20.8 PPG.

Banks, Jefferson and Tuck averaged 18.4 PPG in less minutes than the 3 departing seniors - Faris, Doty and Buck.

Hartley averaged 9.2 PPG vs. 14.0 freshman year. Will she be even better her senior year?

For the stats geeks types, I can't figure out why the average PPG for this past year was 82.5 but if you add up each individual player PPG average it comes out ot 89.6. Is that because most of the team didn't play every game?

 

[bruinbball]

Because not all of their totals were for 39 games. There were many missed games and that does skew the numbers.

 

[easttexastrash]

I predict lots of points and 5 starters for every game.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Because not all of their totals were for 39 games. There were many missed games and that does skew the numbers.

I never knew you were one of the stat geeks.

Thanks for 'splainin' that to Eric.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I predict lots of points and 5 starters for every game.

For a Baylor fan, you're pretty smart.

 

[bruinbball]

I never knew you were one of the stat geeks.

Thanks for 'splainin' that to Eric.

I taught a stats class, but I am no Phil....

 

[MilfordHusky]

A subset of Eric's question is:

Who will be the leading scorer?

I think there are 4 possibilities, with some more likely than others: Kaleena, Stewie, Stef, and Bria. I think that's the order they finish, with all 4 in double digits. I think Kaleena wants to be historically great and will be scoring from outside, inside, and the FT line. If Stewie shoots threes well (like half of her Final Four 87.5%) and gets offensive putbacks, she could easily be the leader. KML and Stewie can have off-games and still get 15 points. I think Bria is left open a lot, because the defenses will focus on Stef, Stewie, and Kaleena. There is simply too much firepower to guard straight up.

 

[John Glass]

my prediction for the opponents

 

[rocky rococo]

Because not all of their totals were for 39 games. There were many missed games and that does skew the numbers.

Yep, biggest factor is you have to take BB's points off the table. I'll bet that once you do that the team average gets very close to the sum of the individual averages.

 

[EricLA]

A subset of Eric's question is:

Who will be the leading scorer?

I think there are 4 possibilities, with some more likely than others: Kaleena, Stewie, Stef, and Bria. I think that's the order they finish, with all 4 in double digits. I think Kaleena wants to be historically great and will be scoring from outside, inside, and the FT line. If Stewie shoots threes well (like half of her Final Four 87.5%) and gets offensive putbacks, she could easily be the leader. KML and Stewie can have off-games and still get 15 points. I think Bria is left open a lot, because the defenses will focus on Stef, Stewie, and Kaleena. There is simply too much firepower to guard straight up.

Well, you can tell by my original post that I figured Stewie would be the leading scorer followed closely by KML. I think Stef will have some monster games, but because she excels in the high post and is such a terrific passer I could see her having an up and down scoring year - not because of struggles, but simply because she's such a good passer and facilitator.

Bria is a bit of an enigma. She averaged 14 PPG her sophomore year and was an AA. last year she was closer to 10 PPG. I really think she could average 15+ PPG, but I really didn't want to predict close to 100 PPG next season. Another interesting survey question would be "how many games will UCONN score over 100"? Not including exhibition games, they scored over 100 4 times. And got into the 90's 10 times including the NC game.

 

[Icebear]

Having completed reading this thread I am now certain that the team scoring average will be 157.2 PPG and the MoV will be 63.183.

 

[diggerfoot]

Having completed reading this thread I am now certain that the team scoring average will be 157.2 PPG and the MoV will be 63.183.

What?! That means opponents will average 94 ppg against us. Not with Stewart patrolling the paint! That must mean the MoV will be over a hundred. After the season ends the NCAA will institute what will become known as "the UConn rules" that prevent defenders from jumping and allows three-point shooters to only get two foul shots when fouled in the act.

 

[easttexastrash]

For a Baylor fan, you're pretty smart.

I wasn't this smart until I started hanging out on the Boneyard.

 

[Icebear]

What?! That means opponents will average 94 ppg against us. Not with Stewart patrolling the paint! That must mean the MoV will be over a hundred. After the season ends the NCAA will institute what will become known as "the UConn rules" that prevent defenders from jumping and allows three-point shooters to only get two foul shots when fouled in the act.

[ that prevent defenders from jumping and allows three-point shooters to only get two foul shots when fouled in the act.[/quote]
You're correct I transposed the figures. MoV is the 94 figure.

 

[DobbsRover2]

[ that prevent defenders from jumping and allows three-point shooters to only get two foul shots when fouled in the act.
You're correct I transposed the figures. MoV is the 94 figure.

But I'm assuming you also meant those projections to be per half. Otherwise you will be seen as a pessimistic doubting Thomas or even a UTenn troll.

 

[jplotinus]

Well, you can tell by my original post that I figured Stewie would be the leading scorer followed closely by KML. I think Stef will have some monster games, but because she excels in the high post and is such a terrific passer I could see her having an up and down scoring year - not because of struggles, but simply because she's such a good passer and facilitator.

Bria is a bit of an enigma. She averaged 14 PPG her sophomore year and was an AA. last year she was closer to 10 PPG. I really think she could average 15+ PPG, but I really didn't want to predict close to 100 PPG next season. Another interesting survey question would be "how many games will UCONN score over 100"? Not including exhibition games, they scored over 100 4 times. And got into the 90's 10 times including the NC game.

Ericsandiego

You write:

"Another interesting survey question would be "how many games will UCONN score over 100"?"

I know it's very tempting to pose queries that invite us to conclude our team will be invincible and that all other opponents should give serious consideration to forfeiting the outcome and just engage in a fan-friendly scrimmage against us.

Come to think of it, BYers kind of did that prior to this past season. It might be axed, rhetorically of course, 'how'd that work out for us?' Answer: Not very well. After the first <20 point victory margin, angst set in, cuinating in apoplexy after the first ND loss.

If we go down the path in April of predicting the number of 100 point games, we run the risk of a repeat of what we collectively did to ourselves this year.

So, maybe we'd be better off wondering about summer strength and conditioning, rehab and taking time to wish the team a fun-filled summer.

Jus sayin :-o

 

[EricLA]

Ericsandiego

You write:

"Another interesting survey question would be "how many games will UCONN score over 100"?"

I know it's very tempting to pose queries that invite us to conclude our team will be invincible and that all other opponents should give serious consideration to forfeiting the outcome and just engage in a fan-friendly scrimmage against us.

Come to think of it, BYers kind of did that prior to this past season. It might be axed, rhetorically of course, 'how'd that work out for us?' Answer: Not very well. After the first <20 point victory margin, angst set in, cuinating in apoplexy after the first ND loss.

If we go down the path in April of predicting the number of 100 point games, we run the risk of a repeat of what we collectively did to ourselves this year.

So, maybe we'd be better off wondering about summer strength and conditioning, rehab and taking time to wish the team a fun-filled summer.

Jus sayin :-o

Why? I wasn't posting the question as an arrogant one. I was thinking about it as our team may be smaller this year, but our depth is stronger. even when we have our 2nd string group in, they will be capable of putting up big numbers. And to answer your question of "how'd that work out for us"? Well, we did win the NC so i'd say it was pretty ok!

 

[doggydaddy]

Ericsandiego

You write:

"Another interesting survey question would be "how many games will UCONN score over 100"?"

I know it's very tempting to pose queries that invite us to conclude our team will be invincible and that all other opponents should give serious consideration to forfeiting the outcome and just engage in a fan-friendly scrimmage against us.

Come to think of it, BYers kind of did that prior to this past season. It might be axed, rhetorically of course, 'how'd that work out for us?' Answer: Not very well. After the first <20 point victory margin, angst set in, cuinating in apoplexy after the first ND loss.

If we go down the path in April of predicting the number of 100 point games, we run the risk of a repeat of what we collectively did to ourselves this year.

So, maybe we'd be better off wondering about summer strength and conditioning, rehab and taking time to wish the team a fun-filled summer.

Jus sayin :-o

Yes, because what we post here has a direct impact on how the team does.

 

[Icebear]

Yes, because what we post here has a direct impact on how the team does.

That has been obvious for years. As has been evident though the swings in mojo.

 

[FairView]

Yes, because what we post here has a direct impact on how the team does.

And I thought we were all here just to engage in the witty repartee.

 

[meyers7]

Come to think of it, BYers kind of did that prior to this past season. It might be axed, rhetorically of course, 'how'd that work out for us?'

Pretty well I'd say. Won #8 NC.

 

[meyers7]

And I thought we were all here just to engage in the witty repartee.

We are failing at that too.

 

[jplotinus]

Yes, because what we post here has a direct impact on how the team does.

No it doesn't. But, what we post here has a direct impact on us. Perhaps I wasn't clear. But the point is, prior to last season, we had lots of threads and posts predicting an easy season, an NC was assured, and a 0 loss season was all but taken for granted.

If asked, I'd say chances for a minimum 7th straight FF appearance, and perhaps a back-to-back NC are very good. My only point is excessive optimism leads to unwarranted disappointment, of the type expressed here starting with the MD game and reaching a crescendo after the 3rd ND loss, which loss still left us as a #1 seed and, in the event, an easy path (measured by victory margin) through the tournament.

Being clearer still, I think 100 point games are possible, but, for now I just think dwelling on the summer and on taking it easy, basking in present glory is quite sufficient.

No harm, no foul