Pac 12 Conference Outlook

[dabears17]

I have no opinion on Luna, just have heard comments about him from several people. I think Missy would be an extremely good referee if she would refrain from insisting on making a call or two a game that makes you know she is calling the game.

Are you talking about Prince fouling Wiggins 80 feet from the basket with 4 seconds left in a tied game in 2007? It was a foul, was a foul the last time I watched video of it a couple years ago, but I can’t find video of the play now. I missed it was Missy that made that call.

My question has always been why did Prince reach in at that point in a tie game? Just defend to prevent Wiggins from being able to advance the ball, so the game goes to OT.

 

[LoTrader]

The Fall season out of conference record against and even the number of Quad One teams was abysmal. Worst of all P-6 conferences. That's all we have to go on at this point.

Of course, there really wasn't an OOC record to go by with the PAC in 2020-2021 - but two PAC teams played for the Championship.

Can't argue with you--at that point in time. The point in time that matters is the end of the season NCAA Tournament record of each conference.

 

[LoTrader]

What kind of recognition do you want? She's on a mediocre team and while her stats are good, the are not eye popping like Ta'Niya Latson at FSU and frankly, let's see how she fares against Lauren Betts in the garbage time against Stanford.

I like her but she's limited in minutes and I need to see her against top quality teams, plus my snark side wonders will she transfer after this year?

I also don't think ASU is in contention as they will beat UW and Cal. I do think the cellar is probably all yours....Rooting for the Husky's but just don't see any thing there....

Raegan Beers recognized (west of eastern USA) as PAC-12 Freshman of the week. 3rd such recognition this season, 10 double doubles, 5 double doubles in a row. What other freshman is playing this well while shooting 61% FG, 2nd in the conference in nearly every PAC-12 rebounding statistic, and 2nd in Points per minute? Don't see Raegan Beers transferring anywhere until she transfers to a WNBA team.

 

[Figurehead]

@DefenseBB...Raegan Beers is for real. Every opposing coach in their interviews marvel at her accomplishments as a freshman, and as a collegiate WBB Player. Hard to argue against her production efficiency. This kid will be an AA at some point in her collegiate career.

She is good as Lotrader has said but when your not on a great team overall it hurts the players individual accolades at a national level. Especially if your sitting at home in March which is a possibility.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I have no opinion on Luna, just have heard comments about him from several people. I think Missy would be an extremely good referee if she would refrain from insisting on making a call or two a game that makes you know she is calling the game.

Are you talking about Prince fouling Wiggins 80 feet from the basket with 4 seconds left in a tied game in 2007? It was a foul, was a foul the last time I watched video of it a couple years ago, but I can’t find video of the play now. I missed it was Missy that made that call.

My question has always been why did Prince reach in at that point in a tie game? Just defend to prevent Wiggins from being able to advance the ball, so the game goes to OT.

I didn't remember it was Wiggins and I'm not sure there were 4 seconds left, but that was the incident. Less than a second I thought.

In any case, yes, it was a foul. A totally unnecessary foul since there was no way Stanford could have scored. That's why I think less than 4 seconds - because I am 100% certain that the situation was such that Stanford could not score except by a foul. Because of the circumstances, I think Barlow should have swallowed her whistle. Not because I think fouls should not be called, but a meaningless foul except for the fact it lead to winning free-throws? I have read several refs over the years say they try not to "decide" games in that way.

Prince unfortunately made some dumb plays among the many good ones. Not the only player to do so, of course, but . . .

 

[dabears17]

I didn't remember it was Wiggins and I'm not sure there were 4 seconds left, but that was the incident. Less than a second I thought.

In any case, yes, it was a foul. A totally unnecessary foul since there was no way Stanford could have scored. That's why I think less than 4 seconds - because I am 100% certain that the situation was such that Stanford could not score except by a foul. Because of the circumstances, I think Barlow should have swallowed her whistle. Not because I think fouls should not be called, but a meaningless foul except for the fact it lead to winning free-throws? I have read several refs over the years say they try not to "decide" games in that way.

Prince unfortunately made some dumb plays among the many good ones. Not the only player to do so, of course, but . . .

I remember it being not enough time to score as well. I got the foul called at 4 seconds from ESPN’s play by play of the game, but looking at it again, it has both of Wiggin’s free throws being at 2 seconds.

Missy probably should of swallowed the whistle. I remember that game as a sign Stanford was back. They went to 5 Final Fours in a row and I went to 4 of them. I haven’t been to a Final Four since 2016. Maybe The Boneyard should take a collection for me to go to the Final Four again. I was in New Orleans in 2013 as well.

Stanford had a reputation of being ”too nice” to make it to another Final Four. When talking to my Dad after the game he complained that Stanford had been too physical with Rutgers. I knew then they were making the Final Four that spring.

Stanford 60-58 Rutgers (Nov 11, 2007) Play-by-Play - ESPN

Play-by-play action for the Stanford Cardinal vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights NCAAW game from November 11, 2007 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[dabears17]

Arizona State has less than 7 scholarship players available due to injuries, so per PAC 12 rules they will be forfeiting their games this week against Utah and Colorado.

They played with 8 players last week.

Arizona State women's basketball injuries cause forfeits at Utah, Colorado

Arizona State women’s basketball will not play its games at Utah and Colorado this weekend after not having enough available players.

www.azcentral.com

 

[DefenseBB]

BTW, how did UCLA get bumped up from #12 last week to #8 this and gain 66 voting points when they Beat Oregon but lost to OSU then barely got by USC at home by 1 point? It just doesn't make any logical sense. Do these voters just not pay attention and are name driven (rhetorical question).

 

[LoTrader]

BTW, how did UCLA get bumped up from #12 last week to #8 this and gain 66 voting points when they Beat Oregon but lost to OSU then barely got by USC at home by 1 point? It just doesn't make any logical sense. Do these voters just not pay attention and are name driven (rhetorical question).

"Parity in the USA" says Miley Cyrus. Hard to predict how each conference's top 5 will be at end of conference play.

 

[dabears17]

BTW, how did UCLA get bumped up from #12 last week to #8 this and gain 66 voting points when they Beat Oregon but lost to OSU then barely got by USC at home by 1 point? It just doesn't make any logical sense. Do these voters just not pay attention and are name driven (rhetorical question).

Coaches poll has them at 14 and Massey has them at 15, so #8 is probably a little high. But didn't teams ahead of them in the AP poll have losses last week? Sometimes it's not what you did, but that teams ahead of you lost. Notre Dame lost to North Carolina, Utah lost to Colorado, NC State lost to Boston College, Virgina Tech lost to Miami, Iowa State lost to Oklahoma, and Michigan lost to Iowa.

The two teams I'm most worried about Stanford losing to in conference play is Utah and UCLA. I worry about away games at Arizona also. Oregon State and Oregon away worry me as well, but the PAC-12 schedule rotates so you only play one pair of schools once every year. This year Stanford only plays the Oregons at Stanford.

UCLA has two losses, one against South Carolina and one at Oregon State having one day to adjust to one of their best players being hurt. Rivalry games are pretty competitive in the PAC-12. Stanford came close to losing at Cal. Colorado beat Utah at Colorado.

Massey has the PAC-12 ranked as the toughest conference, currently #3 SOS, projected as the #1 Conference SOS.

 

[Floridaduck]

but the PAC-12 schedule rotates so you only play one pair of schools once every year. This year Stanford only plays the Oregons at Stanford.

Getting the road win at Oregon gave an enormous edge to UCLA. While they have to play Stanford both home and away they have a beneficial schedule going forward. They play Arizona only at home. And they play Utah and Colorado only once although they are both road games

Utah plays Stanford and Arizona twice but Oregon (road) and UCLA (home) only once

Arizona plays Stanford, Utah, Colorado, and Oregon twice, home and away. They play UCLA only once but it is a road game.

 

[jake0414]

UCLA jumping from #12 to #8 in the AP Poll following a 1 point win over USC at home does surprise. A lot, as dabears17 explained, has to do with losses by teams ranked ahead of them. At this point in the season I’d put UCLA in the #11-#15 range with several opportunities to move up in the rankings as the season progresses (starting tomorrow at home against Stanford).

If you want to question rankings I suggest you take a look at the NET Rankings: Warren Nolan Net Rankings
It places UCLA and Arizona, both 14-2, at #26 and #27 respectively while Oregon (12-4), who lost to both teams, at #10; Texas (12-5) at #13; Tennessee (12-6), who UCLA handily beat by 17, at #15; Alabama (13-4, this isn’t football) at #18; and Baylor, who lost to Arizona by 21, at #21. I also don’t get undefeated Ohio State (17-0) at #9 behind #6 Utah (14-1), #7 Duke (14-1, Sorry Triad), and #8 Notre Dame (12-2).

I realize NET takes into account where the games are played (Home, Away, Neutral) and margin of victory among other factors. I believe it grossly overweights MoV. I don’t know if and how it takes strength of competition into account but if not it certainly should.

UCLA‘s available roster of 11 includes the 5 freshmen in the highly ranked recruiting class. The coaching staff gave the freshmen substantial meaningful minutes during non-conference play (to date all freshmen average 15+ mpg) to prepare the team for the competitive conference schedule and post season tournaments. Doing so reduced the margins of victory against lower ranked opponents which I believe negatively affected the Bruins’ NET.

Thankfully NET is only one factor the NCAA tournament committee uses to select and seed teams as evidenced by Charlie Crème projecting UCLA a #3 seed and Arizona a #4 seed along with Oregon #5 seed, Texas #10 seed, Tennessee #8 seed, Baylor #4 seed and Alabama #10 seed based on the season’s results as of Monday, 9 January.

 

[DefenseBB]

I am an analytics acolyte and my point is maybe the people whose actual job it is to vote on such rankings, should also use analytics to rationalize their voting instead of what I view is sheer laziness.

The other frustrating aspects are some of the other narratives around injuries that teams are now touting. These fall into 2 categories:
1. Season ending injuries where said team will not have those players services to "create upside". Think Paige, Madison Greene from tOSU, Soares from ISU as these examples so the team ranking assessment has to be constituted "as is".
2. In-season injuries where a player is out but is expected back. Grace Berger who missed time, Jayce Sheldon who continues to miss games for tOSU but is expected back and Azzi Fudd/Dorka Juhasz who both missed 6+ games during which UConn lost 2 of them. These types of injuries can and should have the "yeah but" notation assigned to them when assessing a team's relative strength. I think the voters applied Charisma Osborne's being out of the Oregon State game to excuse that loss but have not necessarily done that with our team.

They also do not consider the schedule a team has played. I am happy that LSU is doing well (especially happy for our @SECbbfan24 ) but to think they are the #5 team in the country by playing the WORST P5 schedule who have played a grand total of 2 Quadrant 1 games all the while playing a schedule ranked 200 in RPI is absurd. Any Creme or sanctioned NCAAT bracket that has them as 3 (9-12 overall ranking) or better bracket seed only feeds into the nonsense of allowing Kim to play cupcakes.

ESPN should do an analysis of the voting by each member to show the bias and laziness. That would be worthwhile to discuss and shame the voters into more responsible efforts.

Ok, rant over, back to our skewed perspectives.

 

[cancontent]

I am an analytics acolyte and my point is maybe the people whose actual job it is to vote on such rankings, should also use analytics to rationalize their voting instead of what I view is sheer laziness.

The other frustrating aspects are some of the other narratives around injuries that teams are now touting. These fall into 2 categories:
1. Season ending injuries where said team will not have those players services to "create upside". Think Paige, Madison Greene from tOSU, Soares from ISU as these examples so the team ranking assessment has to be constituted "as is".
2. In-season injuries where a player is out but is expected back. Grace Berger who missed time, Jayce Sheldon who continues to miss games for tOSU but is expected back and Azzi Fudd/Dorka Juhasz who both missed 6+ games during which UConn lost 2 of them. These types of injuries can and should have the "yeah but" notation assigned to them when assessing a team's relative strength. I think the voters applied Charisma Osborne's being out of the Oregon State game to excuse that loss but have not necessarily done that with our team.

They also do not consider the schedule a team has played. I am happy that LSU is doing well (especially happy for our @SECbbfan24 ) but to think they are the #5 team in the country by playing the WORST P5 schedule who have played a grand total of 2 Quadrant 1 games all the while playing a schedule ranked 200 in RPI is absurd. Any Creme or sanctioned NCAAT bracket that has them as 3 (9-12 overall ranking) or better bracket seed only feeds into the nonsense of allowing Kim to play cupcakes.

ESPN should do an analysis of the voting by each member to show the bias and laziness. That would be worthwhile to discuss and shame the voters into more responsible efforts.

Ok, rant over, back to our skewed perspectives.

I hear you and agree with respect to biases when it comes to voting. However this isn't just a NCAAW issue. It's a common problem in all sports.

Regarding the Madison Greene example, I'm surprised and disappointed that it's being referenced for tOSU. They went through the same thing last season and ended up with a share of the BIG10 regular season title. They proved they could compete and they're showing that they can again while they wait for Sheldon to get healthy. It's definitely frustrating when it's obvious they haven't missed a beat.

 

[dabears17]

@DefenseBB After the first month of the season, I rely more on Massey than the AP/Coaches poll. NET is just starting to become useful, but there are still anomalies. UCLA and Arizona should be ranked somewhere between 10th and 15th like they are on Massey, not 26th and 27th like they are in the NET. Creme is weekly applying the principles the selection committee would use after the results through each Monday night. He has UCLA between 9th and 12th, Arizona between the 13th and 16th best team.

I'm happy Colorado is ranked 22nd by the NET, but are they the 22nd best team in the country?

UConn's struggle is only 2 Big East opponents are Quad 1 home wins, while for UCLA, 5 Pac-12 opponents are possible Quad 1 home wins. Assuming at this point in time UConn is the 3rd 2 seed, UConn just needs to be patient, continue winning in the Big East, beat Tennessee, and play well against South Carolina, then they will be a one seed.

Now that Azzi is back and healthy, that can be used when ranking UConn. Just like Charisma Osborne playing last weekend helped UCLA's ranking.

At a minimum, 3 teams ranked ahead of UConn in bracketology are going to lose at least one game between now and Selection Sunday. All UConn needs to do is get players healthy and do what UConn does, and they will be a number 1 seed.

Interestingly, this article talks about how the Big 10 encourages its teams to schedule to improve the Big 10's rankings. They are also willing to schedule games on 6 days a week to get games on TV. They usually avoid Tuesdays, but still schedule a few Tuesday games if a good TV window is available to give the Big 10 exposure.

It says the Big 10 as a conference leads the NCAA in wins against top-10 and top-25 ranked teams.

Starting the 2024-25 season, UCLA will be a Big 10 school.

How the Big Ten approached women's basketball scheduling to raise national profile, prep for NCAA tournament

Big Ten VP Megan Kahn said she’s seen progress in the conference's rise out of being what she called the “best-kept secret in college basketball” to garnering more national attention.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[LoTrader]

I am an analytics acolyte and my point is maybe the people whose actual job it is to vote on such rankings, should also use analytics to rationalize their voting instead of what I view is sheer laziness.

The other frustrating aspects are some of the other narratives around injuries that teams are now touting. These fall into 2 categories:
1. Season ending injuries where said team will not have those players services to "create upside". Think Paige, Madison Greene from tOSU, Soares from ISU as these examples so the team ranking assessment has to be constituted "as is".
2. In-season injuries where a player is out but is expected back. Grace Berger who missed time, Jayce Sheldon who continues to miss games for tOSU but is expected back and Azzi Fudd/Dorka Juhasz who both missed 6+ games during which UConn lost 2 of them. These types of injuries can and should have the "yeah but" notation assigned to them when assessing a team's relative strength. I think the voters applied Charisma Osborne's being out of the Oregon State game to excuse that loss but have not necessarily done that with our team.

They also do not consider the schedule a team has played. I am happy that LSU is doing well (especially happy for our @SECbbfan24 ) but to think they are the #5 team in the country by playing the WORST P5 schedule who have played a grand total of 2 Quadrant 1 games all the while playing a schedule ranked 200 in RPI is absurd. Any Creme or sanctioned NCAAT bracket that has them as 3 (9-12 overall ranking) or better bracket seed only feeds into the nonsense of allowing Kim to play cupcakes.

ESPN should do an analysis of the voting by each member to show the bias and laziness. That would be worthwhile to discuss and shame the voters into more responsible efforts.

Ok, rant over, back to our skewed perspectives.

How do we account for Oregon State without their top 2022-23 recruit (not named Raegan Beers) unavailable since the beginning of the season? You cannot. Maybe OSU would have won a few more significant games this season? Impossible to put a "yeah but" on a result given all the injuries that happen during the course of a season.

 

[newfrontier]

it is annoying, if not frustrating, that almost every time I read comments reviewing the UCLA loss to Oregon State at Oregon State, the author not so subtly suggests or implies that if not for UCLA being without Charisma Osborne, the result would have been quite different.
In other words, OSU was very fortunate Charisma did not play and her absence was a key or even the major factor explaining the outcome. End result: the stature and importance of OSU's win over UCLA is significantly diminished in size, scope, and meaning. Yet, the authors always fail to mention how OSU was also missing a key player, ie. missing the great skill and contributions of the highest ranked recruit in the entire history of its women's basketball program. Yes, Osborne is obviously the more experienced, proven commodity but I find it hard to believe that a player with the resume of a Timea Gardiner would not have been a factor in game. And since speculation on both sides is part of the story, maybe Osborne is fully healthy and plays but has a bad day? Would an OSU upset win over UCLA be diminished in this case as well?

 

[cancontent]

it is annoying, if not frustrating, that almost every time I read comments reviewing the UCLA loss to Oregon State at Oregon State, the author not so subtly suggests or implies that if not for UCLA being without Charisma Osborne, the result would have been quite different.
In other words, OSU was very fortunate Charisma did not play and her absence was a key or even the major factor explaining the outcome. End result: the stature and importance of OSU's win over UCLA is significantly diminished in size, scope, and meaning. Yet, the authors always fail to mention how OSU was also missing a key player, ie. missing the great skill and contributions of the highest ranked recruit in the entire history of its women's basketball program. Yes, Osborne is obviously the more experienced, proven commodity but I find it hard to believe that a player with the resume of a Timea Gardiner would not have been a factor in game. And since speculation on both sides is part of the story, maybe Osborne is fully healthy and plays but has a bad day? Would an OSU upset win over UCLA be diminished in this case as well?

I'm not one of those who thinks that was the case. Oregon State winning over UCLA was impressive regardless. UCLA's roster even without her is a good one. Oregon State have players who are making solid contributions this year and deserve credit for that win.

 

[dabears17]

@newfrontier I was focused more on people saying UCLA is over-ranked when they just have two loses, one to South Carolina. It looks like Timea hasn't played in any games and is still injured? I can't seem to find any recent news and don't see her in the season stats. UCLA is a dangerous team even when shorthanded, so it was an impressive win by Oregon State. As I said in another post, the Oregon roadtrip always makes me nervous.

NCAA selection committee allows injuries to be taken into account when ranking and seeding teams. Saying that UCLA shouldn't be penalized for a loss that one of their starters missed part of the game doesn't take away from Oregon State's win.

I have a ton of respect for what Scott has done with Oregon State. He took a program that was in bad shape and quickly made them relevant again. I was at the 2016 Final Four and was rooting for the two teams wearing Orange. I've been to two women's games at Gill. I still remember the 2007 game where Wiggins didn't dress to rest a sore ankle but got dressed during halftime and had to play ~8 minutes in the second half for Stanford to win. She only scored 3 points, but it was with Stanford only up 50-46 and sparked a 10-3 run by Stanford.

I'm hopeful that Timea gets to play soon and puts together impressive enough stats that if Oregon State is still on bubble on Selection Sunday, they take her injury into account and give them a bid. Hypotheticals don't count until players are back and playing.

 

[Floridaduck]

The Oregonian: "Oregon Ducks forward Grace VanSlooten attended Wednesday’s practice, but did not participate according to coach Kelly Graves, and the status of the Ducks’ leading scorer for this weekend’s games against Washington and Washington State is questionable."

Injuries to one or both feet in the Arizona game but attended the practice and was walking without a boot this week.

 

[LoTrader]

Timea Gardiner is suiting up for her first OSU WBB Game tonight! GO BEAVS!

 

[dabears17]

Timea Gardiner is suiting up for her first OSU WBB Game tonight! GO BEAVS!

Looking forward to watching the game in 6 hours!

 

[dabears17]

This article says Charisma Osborne was wearing a shoulder brace during the USC game and is only at 65 to 70 pct. I’m pretty sure she’ll perform pretty much at 100pct tonight against Stanford.

UCLA women's basketball braces for underdog matchup against Stanford - Daily Bruin

Riding the emotional high from the comeback win against their crosstown rivals, the Bruins will welcome the Pac-12’s flagship program for a top-eight matchup in Westwood.

dailybruin.com

 

[newfrontier]

Looking forward to watching the game in 6 hours!

less than 4 hours and 44 minutes from now!

 

[Figurehead]

Timea Gardiner is suiting up for her first OSU WBB Game tonight! GO BEAVS!

I see that ome of your fans are expecting a very high point production from her this weekend if she does play. Give us a report on how good she is because I am hearing nothing but high expectations from my other co-workers aligned with the program. I hope for you that rings true.