Our Non Conference

[BigErnMcCracken]

I'm not sure how our PORPAGATU! is affected by all of this but I'm pretty pleased with the OOC portion of the schedule. "Neutral" site wins over Carolina, Texas, Indiana and Gonzaga and a very close road loss at KU with a squad looking like a MASH unit is a pretty good result for me. I'm thrilled they're sitting at 10-1 entering the conference still not having played - in my mind - close to their best basketball.

 

[McLovin]

i will defer to @auror and others! it's possible that my understanding of this stuff is wrong.

it's just kind of funny to me that we are having this conversation when our team is ranked #3 on kenpom and #5 on the NET (behind BYU, weirdly, who has played an even softer schedule) and would surely be a 1 seed if the postseason started today

I think the bigger issue, IMO, is the weaker than expected Big East outside the top 3. It could end up being a 4 bid league after people thought it could be as much as a 7 bid league before the start of the season.

 

[Icehawk]

Seriously. The stands are nearly empty. The teams gets almost nothing. It adds nothing to our resume and hurts our advanced metrics. And (as I've said before and I stand by it) these sorts of schedules affect things on the margins.

They're bad games that fans don't care about and only offer injury risk.

Stands weren't empty at the cupcake game I went to the day after Thanksgiving, hell most people stayed to the end of the blowout. True it's because folks want to see the championship Huskies but I have to challenge your hyperbole of claiming the stands are empty.

More important to fans IMO would be to get some of these premier games played in CT next year and not just road games/MSG. I mean if the fans don't care about a 350 a 200 probably doesn't move the needle much either. How high do you go before you risk turning a cupcake into a surprise you don't want?

It seems like practice is the most dangerous place these days!

 

[willie99]

Samson is 8-3 vs UConn with Houston (3-1 vs Dan Hurley). Granted, none of those UConn teams were like this one, but I still remember that 81-45 beatdown in '19.

Funny, I remember beating Houston before a raucous crowd at GP just before Covid shut down our season

Beating Ollie doesn't impress me much

And we have the titles

BTW: I think he's a great coach

 

[superjohn]

Your first article has a quote saying they use RPI SOS.

"4. Strength of schedule, especially non-conference strength of schedule. At least one team gets left out of the tournament almost every year primarily because of a very poor non-conference schedule. The NET does not have a strength of schedule output, so the committee is still using the RPI version."

Anyway, below is what the NCAA actually offers about how they calculate it, and you'll see the quality of the opponent is in the first factor, "Team Value Index," which they say is "An algorithm set up to reward teams who beat other good teams?" Based on the NCAA's own language, which would have more of a reward, for instance, playing the 250th best team or the 350th best team?

This isn't hard: SOS plays a role in the NET. Who you played, where you played them.

View attachment 94211

As to this question:


I can't answer that explicitly because I don't know. He's certainly not saying to himself "Let's make a schedule to make it worse to get a good seed." Could have been scheduling issues with other teams, might be an AD reason. Could be they guessed wrong on programs. Could be he thought the five teams they were playing (UNC, Kansas, Gonzaga, Indiana, Texas) were just fine. You are giving him the benefit of the doubt, which is fair because he's won a title. He also got a 4 seed last year when the team should have gotten a 3 seed.

But mathematically, playing terrible teams makes the Team Value Index worse.

 

[SixRings]

 

[Hunt for 7]

I think the bigger issue, IMO, is the weaker than expected Big East outside the top 3. It could end up being a 4 bid league after people thought it could be as much as a 7 bid league before the start of the season.

Yes unless something significant changes 4 could even be a stretch. That will mess with our NET. We are going to have to go17-3 or 16-4 finish the regular season as champion and at least get to the final of the BE tourney to get a #1 seed. I made a ton of assumptions but I think I am close to what has to happen. Maybe we finish second and they are on a winning streak going into BE tourney and we win that could also lead to a #1.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

i will defer to @auror and others! it's possible that my understanding of this stuff is wrong.

it's just kind of funny to me that we are having this conversation when our team is ranked #3 on kenpom and #5 on the NET (behind BYU, weirdly, who has played an even softer schedule) and would surely be a 1 seed if the postseason started today

Surely? Given we are 5 in NET and 5 in the AP there seems a non zero chance they could bump UConn to the two line.

Would be interesting to see what our NET or KP would be right now subbing out a handful of those mid 300 games for say mid 200s.

 

[navery12]

Surely? Given we are 5 in NET and 5 in the AP there seems a non zero chance they could bump UConn to the two line.

Would be interesting to see what our NET or KP would be right now subbing out a handful of those mid 300 games for say mid 200s.

It wouldn't be all that different. Our strength of schedule would be stronger those the KenPom and NET metrics are largely based on performance vs expectations. So unless we also won the mid 200s games by 50+ it wouldn't be a significant or noticeable change

 

[SeattleHoop]

Because we've played like 6 sub-300 teams. They are joke games we should have never played.

Does margin of victory not factor into the algorithms at all? I’m sure it does to the committee. But do algorithms take that into consideration?

If not; they should. If you beat a sub 300 team by 40 and only beat a team at 175 by 5 points that should be looked at

 

[SeattleHoop]

But margin of victory is a big factor in the overall computer rankings. So why risk beating a quad 4 team ranked 200 by 14 when you can smash the 357th team by 42? That’s the game Hurley is playing and what he’s banking on. We’ll see if it pays off…

You answered the question I had. Thanks

 

[Blue Blood]

Despite playing some very good teams, our OOC SOS is pretty bad because of those really really bad teams. Currently 252 by KenPom.

We seem to cater our schedule to the NET no other metrics which I guess makes sense but I'll always be in the camp of just but Yale QU Central UMass to play us. Far more interesting and honestly if we can't beat them seeding in the tournament is the least of our worries

 

[caw]

Surely? Given we are 5 in NET and 5 in the AP there seems a non zero chance they could bump UConn to the two line.

Would be interesting to see what our NET or KP would be right now subbing out a handful of those mid 300 games for say mid 200s.

Considering how funky the seedings have been recently, and how 16 seeds have started winning occasionally, I am not sure being a 1 seed over a 2 seed makes a huge impact. The only difference I can see if you are last 1 seed, or first 2 seed is the potential color of the jersey in the elite eight game.

Right now there are only two teams I want to avoid before the final four and those are Purdue and Marquette (in conference potentially 4th game, pass until final four please).

 

[David 76]

I don't remember ever. playing a better OOC schedule than this year's.
And I'm old.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

This is why it’s bad to get lost in the numbers. We beat a number of high quality ranked teams so what does that matter?

If we were a bubble team it’s be a concern but thankfully we’re not

 

[Travelman6]

Samson is 8-3 vs UConn with Houston (3-1 vs Dan Hurley). Granted, none of those UConn teams were like this one, but I still remember that 81-45 beatdown in '19.

Of all the brutal games during that very difficult stretch of years, 89-64 vs Auburn and 102-67 vs arkansas being two prime examples, that complete and utter beat down was even worse, probably the worst...

Houston 84-45 UConn (15 Mar, 2019) Box Score - ESPN (IN)

Box score for the Houston Cougars vs. UConn Huskies NCAAM game from 15 March 2019 on ESPN (IN). Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.in

Houston absolutely ripped that team to shreds and if they felt like it they could have scored 90 and doubled up on UConn. It's amazing how far Hurley has come since that game. I'm sure he'd love some payback in an e8 or f4 match up....

 

[elmcityboy]

Surely? Given we are 5 in NET and 5 in the AP there seems a non zero chance they could bump UConn to the two line.

Would be interesting to see what our NET or KP would be right now subbing out a handful of those mid 300 games for say mid 200s.

i thought the same thing at first, but look at the teams that are ahead of us. can they really justify giving kansas the one seed when they are ranked #13 (!) in the NET? and BYU just lost to utah and hasn't beaten a single ranked team.

i think the BYU point answers your second question -- they have played an objectively weaker schedule than us and have not been hurt in the metrics at all.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

i thought the same thing at first, but look at the teams that are ahead of us. can they really justify giving kansas the one seed when they are ranked #13 (!) in the NET? and BYU just lost to utah and hasn't beaten a single ranked team.

i think the BYU point answers your second question -- they have played an objectively weaker schedule than us and have not been hurt in the metrics at all.

I don't have an opinion on the seeding really either way, just that it wouldn't be shocking if the committee did something that didn't make sense.

I'm not sure that it does answer my question though. I think we're looking at this from opposite ends of the spectrum. Your contention being a weak sos can't or won't hurt us, where as I'm saying a slight adjustment to some opponents could potentially help.

And again that all only speaks to the sos metrics.. And not the fact we're gauging ticket holders for these games.

 

[ctchamps]

I feel like you're making a different point. Ultimately my disdain for these sub-300 games (as I've articulated) is multifaceted. One of those facets is that it make our resume worse. It may only do so marginally, but it does. And sometimes those margins matter in things like seeding. If UConn plays to its potential and doesn't drop a silly game or two, it doesn't matter.

But even if that's the case and it doesn't affect our seeding in any way, I still think these games are terrible to play, as I have already laid out (so I won't beat a dead horse...though, forgive me, I have a newborn and good-natured arguing on the internet is one of the few fun things available to me).

Math Nerd + Newborn = Argumentative Algorithms

Congratulations. At least you’re making an effort to be here unlike that slacker @August_West

 

[elmcityboy]

I don't have an opinion on the seeding really either way, just that it wouldn't be shocking if the committee did something that didn't make sense.

I'm not sure that it does answer my question though. I think we're looking at this from opposite ends of the spectrum. Your contention being a weak sos can't or won't hurt us, where as I'm saying a slight adjustment to some opponents could potentially help.

And again that all only speaks to the sos metrics.. And not the fact we're gauging ticket holders for these games.

goodman just posted this re: the NET. iowa state has one of the worst strength of schedules in the entire country -- they are #314 on kenpom vs our #251.



i think the real way we could have improved our metrics this season would have been to cover the spread in all of our cupcake games.

on your other points re: the ncaa and the season ticket holders -- there i definitely agree, haha!

 

[AZHuskiePop]

You are spitting only facts. I believe, in a clinical way, we will be the BE regular season Champs. The BE tourney, anything can happen. But aside from Shakas team. I do not see how we lose. I know that was said last year, but our five starters are ridiculous. It’ll be different in the BE this year. Our guys want to have that trophy.

Last years team looked unbeatable going into Big East play and certainly was deeper.
I predicted 3-4 losses and 1st or 2nd place , but I was pretty far off. League play defies logic.

 

[auror]

goodman just posted this re: the NET. iowa state has one of the worst strength of schedules in the entire country -- they are #314 on kenpom vs our #251.



i think the real way we could have improved our metrics this season would have been to cover the spread in all of our cupcake games.

Yup. Scoring margin relative to expectations > everything else.

But what buffoons like Goodman don't realize is that that's easier said than done. Only really good teams are able to consistently blow out bad teams by the margins required to move the needle for the metrics.

Our opponents and especially cupcakes shot really well from 3 against us. Both contested and unguarded. Makes it tough to cover when cupcakes are hitting >40% from 3 and we're missing wide open shots. As discussed elsewhere on the board, 3pt% is only a little bit controllable by the defense (and it mostly comes from shutting off the paint and allowing tougher quality 3pt looks as a result).

 

[JohnnyJr]

If the point of these games is to get the freshman a ton of experience that didn’t really happen either. If the margin of victory is important in these games we can’t get freshman in for 20 minutes regardless. I get we have to play a few of these but we literally played the worst team on Kenpom.

 

[Travelman6]

Last years team looked unbeatable going into Big East play and certainly was deeper.
I predicted 3-4 losses and 1st or 2nd place , but I was pretty far off. League play defies logic.

It did in 2011 too. 9-9...