Our Non Conference

[tzznandrew]

ya gotta win 6 in a row no matter who they are or what your seed

Yeah, and? A higher seed is indicative of a better team and it's better and easier to win the title from a higher seed. 60%+ of champs are 1 seeds. 33 out of 38 (since the expansion) have been 1, 2, or 3 seeds.

UConn is the only 7 seed and one of only two 4 seeds to win. Give me a great resume and a 1 or 2 seed every year.

 

[pepband99]

Just because a guy makes a number doesn't mean it has to be respected. Four games out of 11 against Top 15 competition away from home can't possibly be 252. His algorithm needs work.

You'll never give up on this, will you? Sigh.

The OP with the cupcake numbers is spot on. The fact we beat some really good teams will be offset by the fairly doughy cupcakes we scheduled, too. It's really not that hard.

NCSOS is kind of silly for major teams, anyway. The "best" NCSOS are going to be bottom-of-wrung teams, anyway. I.e. right now, there are the top 10:

You want an impressive non-con? Purdue's is crazy (but is also about to tank with some doughy ones coming up):

 

[AllHusky]

Yeah, and? A higher seed is indicative of a better team and it's better and easier to win the title from a higher seed. 60%+ of champs are 1 seeds. 33 out of 38 (since the expansion) have been 1, 2, or 3 seeds.

UConn is the only 7 seed and one of only two 4 seeds to win. Give me a great resume and a 1 or 2 seed every year.

So your contention is that Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Sisters of the Poor are going to drag us down instead of our OOC resume lifting us up? Or that you think we are going to suffer another January like last year? Or that we can't win the BE Tourney?

If we do another January and don't win the BE Tourney, we probably don't deserve a higher seed.

If we have a 3 loss or better Regular Season(champs??) and win the BE Tourney, don't you think we'll be a 1 or 2?

 

[thatguyed]

I don't understand how Massey can have our current SOS so ridiculously low (#256) when we've played 5 top 40 teams and won 4 of them.

 

[AllHusky]

I don't understand how Massey can have our current SOS so ridiculously low (#256) when we've played 5 top 40 teams and won 4 of them.

How much of the NCAA Tourney seeding is human versus computer algorithims(sp?)?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

With the sheer number of D-1 schools (a few more than 350) there is the potential for an inherent flaw in a strength of schedule algorithm (JC spoke of this often in the mid 1990's and had a reasonably valid point). Then, JC said "there isn't a whole lot of difference between a win against team 175 and a win against team 300 yet the impact on strength of schedule is quite large". There should be some adjustment, lessening the impact after a certain point, but an easier solution may be to try to target more schools that will consistently be ~200 and fewer that will likely be ~300 - ~350.

 

[tzznandrew]

I don't understand how Massey can have our current SOS so ridiculously low (#256) when we've played 5 top 40 teams and won 4 of them.

Because we've played like 6 sub-300 teams. They are joke games we should have never played.

 

[ucp990411]

Samson is 8-3 vs UConn with Houston (3-1 vs DH). Granted, none of those UConn teams were like this one, but I still remember that 81-45 beatdown in '19.

And so does our coach

 

[ctchamps]

Because we've played like 6 sub-300 teams. They are joke games we should have never played.

Before I can agree they never should have been played I’d like to know when we scheduled them. Do you know?

 

[Tyler2Rings]

It could matter in seeding, especially with a weaker-than-expected Big East. There's a lot of Q4 games in there, and Indiana might end up only being a Q2.

I'd rather be 10-1 with a 250th ranked noncon than 8-3 with a top 50.

 

[AllHusky]

Because we've played like 6 sub-300 teams. They are joke games we should have never played.

So, if: BE Regular season Champs and 2nd in tourney to Marquette who we beat twice in regular. How much will the "joke game" factor impact our NCAA Tourney seed?

 

[tzznandrew]

So your contention is that Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Sisters of the Poor are going to drag us down instead of our OOC resume lifting us up? Or that you think we are going to suffer another January like last year? Or that we can't win the BE Tourney?

If we do another January and don't win the BE Tourney, we probably don't deserve a higher seed.

If we have a 3 loss or better Regular Season(champs??) and win the BE Tourney, don't you think we'll be a 1 or 2?

I think that we gave ourselves less of a margin of error by scheduling these ****y schools. If we play as we're capable of and go into selection Sunday with a record like 30-3 or 29-4, we're getting a 1-seed. But a little more a slip up and the volume of Q4 games might let lesser team's resume look better.

Ultimately, I think games against sub-300 teams in particular do nothing to help us. They lower our basic computer metrics (including the NET which includes SOS). They hurt our resume by giving us more Q4 games. They don't provide a test in any way. They don't even come close to exciting the fan base. All they really offer is a chance for our players to get hurt with no upside. There's no good reason to play them.

 

[tzznandrew]

Before I can agree they never should have been played I’d like to know when we scheduled them. Do you know?

Most of these buy games aren't scheduled out years in advance. I don't know for a fact (and I'm happy to be corrected) but my assumption is that these are scheduled within the calendar year they take place.

 

[Waquoit]

You'll never give up on this, will you? Sigh.

I will never prostrate myself on the altar of Ken Pom, correct. And I think only a couple of you Pommie's truly know how to interpret data.

 

[uconngb]

All of this nonsense would go away if we weren’t so scared to schedule Bryant.

 

[Travelman6]

Im pretty sure someone said we could beat an nba team

Ya Detriot wouldn't stand a chance.

 

[ctchamps]

Most of these buy games aren't scheduled out years in advance. I don't know for a fact (and I'm happy to be corrected) but my assumption is that these are scheduled within the calendar year they take place.

That's my guess as well. They kept five slots open and planned on scheduling them dependent on which players were returning. We knew Joey, Alleyne and Adama were definitively or almost certainly leaving. Hawkins was projected as well and his end of season play confirmed it. Andre, Tristen, Samson, Hassan and Donovan were question marks.

Imagine this season without Donovan, Tristen, Samson or Hassan and Timberlake instead of Cam. We could be fighting for an NCAA berth. A lot would be dependent on how quickly the freshman class developed. The safety net for scheduling defensively was supposed to be a very strong BE. I doubt anyone projected the BE to be underwhelming OOC this year. I believe this a good argument for scheduling these awful programs.

 

[Tenspro2002]

If we play how we've been playing, we're going to be fine. Keep winning and we don't have to worry.

If we're in a group competing for a 1 seed against:

Arizona
Marquette
Purdue
Kansas

We might be in trouble and those bad teams might come back to bite us. All those teams have played exceptional teams and don't have nearly as many bottom feeders.

I'm actually not sure about this.

If we were scrapping for a spot on the bubble and the Committee is sort of blindly looking at computer numbers, then maybe an NET of 50 instead of 45 because we played teams in the #300-350 range instead of the #200-250 range would hurt us.

But if we're in the top 5 and competing for a #1 seed, or competing for #1 in the East, the Committee is going to scrutinize who we beat and lost to among the other top teams, they're not going to care that we beat #350 instead of #250.

 

[connVA]

I don't underestimate his ability to schedule for success.

#1 in Kenpom and their best competition has been a watered down Charleston Invitational field and Xavier in the BE-B12 challenge. Certainly knows how to work the algorithm.

 

[tzznandrew]

That's my guess as well. They kept five slots open and planned on scheduling them dependent on which players were returning. We knew Joey, Alleyne and Adama were definitively or almost certainly leaving. Hawkins was projected as well and his end of season play confirmed it. Andre, Tristen, Samson, Hassan and Donovan were question marks.

Imagine this season without Donovan, Tristen, Samson or Hassan and Timberlake instead of Cam. We could be fighting for an NCAA berth. A lot would be dependent on how quickly the freshman class developed. The safety net for scheduling defensively was supposed to be a very strong BE. I doubt anyone projected the BE to be underwhelming OOC this year. I believe this a good argument for scheduling these awful programs.

Here's the thing: given the talent level of UConn even if more people left or different things took place...the team will still reliably beat a team around 200 with ease. Those aren't powerhouses.

I get playing some scrubs. It's just the dreck we play is way worse than it needs to be, IMO.

 

[Mazhude]

Your use of "literally" is actually worse than Deepster's of "penultimate".

If only he'd used "decimate" as well...

 

[AntG168]

Are we really criticizing a scheduling method that led us to a national championship???

 

[Huskyforlife]

Are we really criticizing a scheduling method that led us to a national championship???

I don’t think anyone really cares that much anymore, it’s just conversation between games. It’s just true that we’d still beat up on teams in the 200-250 range, and they’d make our scheduling numbers look better. And it’s impossible to say this is the absolute formula to winning championships, just cause it worked one time.

 

[AntG168]

I don’t think anyone really cares that much anymore, it’s just conversation between games. It’s just true that we’d still beat up on teams in the 200-250 range, and they’d make our scheduling numbers look better. And it’s impossible to say this is the absolute formula to winning championships, just cause it worked one time.

I think it shows at least that it’s inconsequential. It’s splitting hairs.

I would argue in the era of the transfer portal it’s beneficial. It gives your team glorified practices with real game pressure. With the high roster turnover it makes sense.

 

[elmcityboy]

Do they not factor in your record vs. various Quadrants, and then use a hold it against your team if you have played a ton of Q4 games? I've seen that every year as a thing discussed. It isn't literally called SOS...but it's that by another name.

And that's the seeding-based argument for playing higher quality low majors. (Not necessarily mid-majors).

this is completely wrong. a quad 4 game is any team 161 or lower in the NET at home, so a "quality mid major" team like, for instance, upenn from the ivy league (net #174) is viewed the same as, say, mississippi valley (net #362) using the new system.

and that is only one factor in determining seedings -- other factors, including margin of victory and team efficiency, heavily favor teams that blow other teams out.

do you really think you know more about non-conference scheduling than our coaching staff?? we literally won a national championship last year with the same scheduling practices.