Our Next Tight Game

[MU in MKE]

T-Rank (the only analytics site that actually saw Marquette possibly beating Baylor) sees the following as the 3 closest games for the Huskies. After these 3, the margins grow pretty wide. But this is just analytics, and the ball still has to go through the hoop.

Closest games:
January 11, @Marquette 56% win probability
December 31, @Xavier 58% win probability
February 11, @Creighton 59% win probability

The next closest is @Butler at 70% probabilty


However, the analytics sites have not yet caught up to a healthy Villanova. They'll definitely become a force as the season progresses.


Source: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Connecticut&year=2023

 

[MU in MKE]

Lots of people sleeping on Marquette. 8-3 with some big wins and three very tight losses.
Big wins:
-Georgia Tech at home by 24;
-Baylor (#6 at the time) at home by 26;
-ND away by 15
Three losses:
-at Purdue by 5
-Mississippi St at home by 3;
-Wisconsin at home by 3

You can argue that we're undefeated, blah, blah, blah, but we'll find out in the next 3 months if we can keep the mentality that's been so important thus far while avoiding injuries and some team having their game of the year.

UConn holds the OBE record for regular season wins with 17 but no one has gone undefeated in the years we've been in the league and I'm too lazy tonight to see if anyone did it before we joined the NBE.

After watching some of the better teams it would seem the best are Xavier, Marquette and maybe Villanova with their injured players back. Creighton has no depth and we should handle them twice.

This backs up the post above. Especially since it even downplays Marquette's record, as GT and Mississippi State were neutral site games, MU was leading Purdue for 35 min and the loss to WI was in OT.

 

[ValleyGuy]

You guys need to slow down. A top 5 UConn team will get everyone's best effort. Why can't we just worry about Butler?

 

[BlueMAB]

You guys need to slow down. A top 5 UConn team will get everyone's best effort. Why can't we just worry about Butler?

Because we aren't playing or coaching, and what we're focused on doesn't impact the games at all.

 

[ctchamps]

My absolute mental powers are pushing for going undefeated in the BE Tournament, going undefeated in the NCAA tournament and winning enough games in the conference regular season to be regular season champs (undefeated or not).

I want this team to get enough buzz that it helps us with endorsements, recruiting (transfers), attractiveness of UConn as a destination for other things, conference contracts and so on (including be able to wear my UConn gear with a puffed chest around my Syracuse neighbor friends). He and his wife always had to deal with me and my wife but incredibly another UConn fan moved in on the other side of him this year. No other sports fans in our 12 unit cluster.

I don't want it to be a circus around UConn such that the players get pulled off their goals. So I'm a little reticent going into tournament play undefeated since that is so extremely rare the circus atmosphere is more likely.

The probability of going undefeated the entire season is extremely low, almost as low as winning an NC never mind winning multiple NCs. I feel confident we will lose at least one BE game and very likely up to 4 losses. And if that last number happens I'm great with that because that should be enough to be regular season champs this season and it was not long ago I was happy with a 3rd place finish as the ceiling.

 

[Kembacity]

I was going to say: Butler is Top 70 Kenpom and 51 in NET, so that will be a Quad 1 game. We should still absolutely win it, but they do often play teams tough.

I’d also expect some home cooking at away games, I hope the coaches have the guys not give 110% effort for blocking shots the first few drives. Sometimes you notice Sanogo just lets someone take that hook shot rather than trying to block it, and that’s what I want. So easy to get a touch foul on defense, and then get a bad foul on a flop on offense.

I know we have Clingan on the bench, but given that we “should” win these games, I’d like us to have a gameplan for bad refereeing off the bat

 

[ValleyGuy]

Because we aren't playing or coaching, and what we're focused on doesn't impact the games at all.

no but it leads to over reactions on this blog from irrational people when expectations aren't met - like people who wanted Hurley fired in March. Then again you were probably one of those.

 

[BlueMAB]

no but it leads to over reactions on this blog from irrational people when expectations aren't met - like people who wanted Hurley fired in March. Then again you were probably one of those.

Looks like you're new here, let me help.

1) Overreactions here will happen in 95% of threads, the other 5% are deleted.
2) You're not going to stop people from posting irrational exuberance, irrational doom and gloom, or anything in between.
3) Don't throw shade when you probably definitely don't know what you're talking about. Feel free to check my post history, or go comb through the threads in April, and come back for your crow.

 

[ValleyGuy]

Looks like you're new here, let me help.

1) Overreactions here will happen in 95% of threads, the other 5% are deleted.
2) You're not going to stop people from posting irrational exuberance, irrational doom and gloom, or anything in between.
3) Don't throw shade when you probably definitely don't know what you're talking about. Feel free to check my post history, or go comb through the threads in April, and come back for your crow.

no..

1. I don't have time to
2. I don't care enough about you to do so

 

[BlueMAB]

no..

1. I don't have time to
2. I don't care enough about you to do so

LOL @ guy on message board policing others' behavior in the middle of the day, but then refusing to back up his own bull---- because he "doesn't have time".

You're similarly unimportant here @ValleyGuy, nobody cares what you want them to worry about.

 

[gtcam]

This team better take the one game at a time mentality because there is a lot of youth and inexperience in NBE play on the squad. Conference games are a completely different animal. If UConn goes 15-5/16-4 in the NBE they will still be a top 3 seed in the NCAAs

 

[ValleyGuy]

LOL @ guy on message board policing others' behavior in the middle of the day, but then refusing to back up his own bull---- because he "doesn't have time".

You're similarly unimportant here @ValleyGuy, nobody cares what you want them to worry about.

You seem to care, you're the only one who responded to my post. So that makes at least one person...

 

[BlueMAB]

You seem to care, you're the only one who responded to my post. So that makes at least one person...

 

[gsmooth]

I was going to say: Butler is Top 70 Kenpom and 51 in NET, so that will be a Quad 1 game. We should still absolutely win it, but they do often play teams tough.

they certainly do sometimes. They split with Creighton last year and probably should've won at Creighton. They played Providence tough both times even though they lost both games.

And before last year, they played Nova tough as well at Hinkle.

 

[gsmooth]

This team better take the one game at a time mentality because there is a lot of youth and inexperience in NBE play on the squad. Conference games are a completely different animal. If UConn goes 15-5/16-4 in the NBE they will still be a top 3 seed in the NCAAs

very true about the conference games. Even stellar championship teams from past years going back to the 80s (when I first started watching college basketball) when you look at their schedule or watched the games themselves, had some ugly and less than pristine looking wins on the road where the attitude was "let's win this anyway we can even if we get lucky and get -- out of here". As good or great as UConn has looked this year, they will have a few of these road games-take it to the bank.

In fact we as fans thinking big picture should welcome and appreciate those games although we won't during the games themselves. These type of games will sharpen and toughen the players.

 

[Hype Cat]

Regarding post/handle: Bouk and Tyrese

Regarding "doomed," I am uncomfortable with the optimism of your prediction, and I felt the need to counteract the hubris with some pessimism.

Why would it make you uncomfortable? I can tell you never played a game of competitive BB or have been a part of a championship team. So you’re not capable of recognizing one that knows they’ve got it locked, and won’t psych themselves out like you would.
If that’s really what your geek speak meant.

 

[Get a Job]

Why would it make you uncomfortable? I can tell you never played a game of competitive BB or have been a part of a championship team. So you’re not capable of recognizing one that knows they’ve got it locked, and won’t psych themselves out like you would.
If that’s really what your geek speak meant.

If you have a problem with the kind of nonsensical superstition that started this exchange, you're gonna have a rough go of it.

Welcome to the Boneyard!

 

[Hype Cat]

If you have a problem with the kind of nonsensical superstition that started this exchange, you're gonna have a rough go of it.

Welcome to the Boneyard!

Oh come on! You should give yourself and the OPs more credit for being deadly serious about your own predictions. At least I own mine.
Lmk when you have a case for any one mediocre team on their schedule with the talent to beat them. So far it’s been like being on watch for the Loch Ness monster. I’m not doing any digging so go ahead and press your luck. And try to do it without blame. I’ll handle the rough go.. lol!

 

[Get a Job]

Oh come on! You should give yourself and the OPs more credit for being deadly serious about your own predictions. At least I own mine.
Lmk when you have a case for any one mediocre team on their schedule with the talent to beat them. So far it’s been like being on watch for the Loch Ness monster. I’m not doing any digging so go ahead and press your luck. And try to do it without blame. I’ll handle the rough go.. lol!

I agree that this team is looking to be more and more head and shoulders above the Big East competition as the season goes on. They will be moderate-to-heavy favorites in every game for the rest of the season. They could go undefeated. I just don't think it's likely. Let's say UConn has a 90% of winning every single conference game. Mathematically, the probability that they win all 20 games in that scenario is just over 12%. Not great odds even with an unrealistically generous assumed per-game win probability. For comparison, our odds of going undefeated if we have a 75% to win every game is 0.3%.

That said, I hope you're right!

 

[Hype Cat]

I agree that this team is looking to be more and more head and shoulders above the Big East competition as the season goes on. They will be moderate-to-heavy favorites in every game for the rest of the season. They could go undefeated. I just don't think it's likely. Let's say UConn has a 90% of winning every single conference game. Mathematically, the probability that they win all 20 games in that scenario is just over 12%. Not great odds even with an unrealistically generous assumed per-game win probability. For comparison, our odds of going undefeated if we have a 75% to win every game is 0.3%.

That said, I hope you're right!

Ok, so based on your math hypothesis using completely unknown variables, please finish the math and share their final pre-tourney record. I know about odds, but what else do you have to go on?
Like I said, it’s like looking out for the LNM. I watching and waiting for it but I’m not seeing anything.
What team has the chops Einstein?

 

[Get a Job]

Ok, so based on your math hypothesis using completely unknown variables, please finish the math and share their final pre-tourney record. I know about odds, but what else do you have to go on?
Like I said, it’s like looking out for the LNM. I watching and waiting for it but I’m not seeing anything.
What team has the chops Einstein?

You seem to be a very silly person.

I'll predict a conference record of 17-3. What team has the chops to beat UConn on a given night? All of them except DePaul and Georgetown.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

St Johns game, can we please not get stupid this year and instead resist the urge to match their lack of size with a munchkin lineup of our own; followed by matching their brainless reckless warp speed play with our own brainless reckless warp speed play? Can we? Please? Thank you.

 

[BlueMAB]

Oh come on! You should give yourself and the OPs more credit for being deadly serious about your own predictions. At least I own mine.
Lmk when you have a case for any one mediocre team on their schedule with the talent to beat them. So far it’s been like being on watch for the Loch Ness monster. I’m not doing any digging so go ahead and press your luck. And try to do it without blame. I’ll handle the rough go.. lol!

There's an inside joke in @Get a Job 's post that went right over your head because you haven't been around long enough.

We aren't superstitious bunch, but we are a little stitious.

And doomed, we're always doomed.

 

[jibsey]

St Johns game, can we please not get stupid this year and instead resist the urge to match their lack of size with a munchkin lineup of our own; followed by matching their brainless reckless warp speed play with our own brainless reckless warp speed play? Can we? Please? Thank you.

I don’t care how we do it but I want us to destroy them.

 

[Hype Cat]

You seem to be a very silly person.

I'll predict a conference record of 17-3. What team has the chops to beat UConn on a given night? All of them except DePaul and Georgetown.

THREE? WHAT?!? I understand the need to stay the course down the mathematical rabbit hole, but what kind of epic mental meltdown do you expect to happen in order for that to come about?
When Hurley gets caught running down there street naked, Ajax refuses to play and Sanogo rips somebody’s face off get back to us brah.