OT: The Belmont and The Triple Crown

[Zorro]

Incidentally, Whirlaway's winning time was 2:31. (May have been a slow track; he was undeniably a great hoss.)

 

[ScarlettB]

According to Wikipedia, the announcers were wrong. AP had not the third but the sixth fastest time;
Sec, 1974 2:24.0
Easy Goer 1989 2:26.0
AP Indy, 1992 2:26.13
Risen Star 1988 2:26.40
Gallant Man 1957 2:26.60
American Pharoa, 2:26.65

That is still faster than 84 other winners since the race went from a mile and 3/16 to 1.5 miles in 1926. Faster than Citation, War Admiral, Affirmed, and Native Dancer. Not too shabby.

What the announcer actually said was that he ran the third fastest Belmont time of the horses that won the triple crown - and that is technically a correct statement, but his time was actually the second fastest, just behind Secretariat. Sir Barton posted a better time, but it was a shorter race back then 1 3/16 mile vs. 1 1/2 mile. I was on the rail at the finish line when Seattle Slew won the Belmont in 1977 and it was so exciting to watch. I still have my winning ticket. I was almost as excited watching AP do it yesterday. He may not be Big Red, but he is amazing and I was really happy for Bob Baffert.

 

[ThisJustIn]

Dove into the archives... wow, the 70's had some good horses...

 

[Icebear]

Dove into the archives... wow, the 70's had some good horses...
View attachment 9721

It was the Golden Era with three Triple Crown winners in six years and two back to back. It was simply a great decade for horse racing.

 

[Icebear]

Sudden flashback reading Milford's post... remember Red Rum?

Was his jockey named Manson?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Was his jockey named Manson?

Beware of horses and jockeys with swastikas etched into their foreheads.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Pharaoh ran 3 very good races and is a great horse. His trainer and jockey knows he's special. In slow motion, he looks incredibly smooth.

I went back to look at old videos of Secretariat on YouTube last night. His 31-length victory in the Belmont is a classic. He had no challengers and yet kept accelerating to the finish. What blew me away, though, was his race in the Preakness. He passes 3 or 4 horses on the outside as if they are standing still. His acceleration was something that Usain Bolt can only dream about.

 

[Zorro]

Point of information. It has always seemed to me that Secretariat accelerated down the stretch of the Belmont. But if Pharoa was 8 seconds behind Secretariat's time at 3/4 and only 2 seconds behind at the finish, that means that AP actually ran the final 3/4 in six seconds less than did Secretariat. Would someone more knowledgeable than I please explain this?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Here's the 1973 Preakness. From 30 seconds into the video to 50 seconds in, he blows by the entire field. The call is entertaining. In 20 seconds, it goes from "Secretariat is last again" to "Here comes Secretariat, he's moving fast" to "He's going for the lead and it's RIGHT NOW."

 

[Waquoit]

Point of information. It has always seemed to me that Secretariat accelerated down the stretch of the Belmont. But if Pharoa was 8 seconds behind Secretariat's time at 3/4 and only 2 seconds behind at the finish, that means that AP actually ran the final 3/4 in six seconds less than did Secretariat. Would someone more knowledgeable than I please explain this?

Actually, AP was 3.8 seconds behind Secretariat at the 3/4 mark (1:09.4 v 1:13.2 (1/5th seconds)) and 3.2 seconds behind at the 1 1/4 mark. He ended up 2.6 seconds of the record coming home in an impressive 24.31 seconds for the final quarter-mile.

In fact, AP ran negative splits for the race. Each quarter mile was faster or equal to the previous one.

 

[Zorro]

Not that I know of. Sham finished second to Secretariat in the Derby and Preakness but was eased in the Belmont and finished last. Never raced again and that would become all too common if horses were required to race in all three.

The 1978 3 year old TC series when Affirmed and Alydar faced each other was easily the best TC races I've ever watched.
Alydar got his revenge in the breeding barn where he became a much more prolific sire than Affirmed.

I agree. Citation-Coaltown was also notable.

 

[Zorro]

Actually, AP was 3.8 seconds behind Secretariat at the 3/4 mark (1:09.4 v 1:13.2 (1/5th seconds)) and 3.2 seconds behind at the 1 1/4 mark. He ended up 2.6 seconds of the record coming home in an impressive 24.31 seconds for the final quarter-mile.

In fact, AP ran negative splits for the race. Each quarter mile was faster or equal to the previous one.

Thanks. Someone had posted the "8 seconds" figure and I assumed it was correct, but it just did not seem reasonable that AP could have made up that much time. It is still remarkable that he made up any time at all on Secretariat over the last 3/4 mile, especially since he had had the lead from the git-go..
.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Thanks. Someone had posted the "8 seconds" figure and I assumed it was correct, but it just did not seem reasonable that AP could have made up that much time. It is still remarkable that he made up any time at all on Secretariat over the last 3/4 mile, especially since he had had the lead from the git-go..
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I posted the 8 seconds, because unfortunately that was what was said by a talking head just after the race - sorry.

 

[Zorro]

You just can't trust them talking heads at all, hardly!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Well that misreported 8 seconds had me going nuts. The idea that the other 7 would lop along behind him and not one be able to challenge over the last 2 1/4s had me frothing over the strategy of the trainers of that 7 - 7 who presumably were entered because they had some distance in them, 'cuz there sure were no sacrificial rabbits in the field.

 

[Icebear]

Well, at 30+" lengths that is a pretty accurate description of Secretariat's win in the Belmont.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Well, at 30+" lengths that is a pretty accurate description of Secretariat's win in the Belmont.

I believe what one commentator said in a Secretariat tribute documentary was the rest of the field straggled home like the Confederate Army from Appomattox . Of course, though the recent movie dramatized things a bit, Sham's trainer had a strategy to try to burn Secretariat out, but the opposite happened. Sham, himself, was a terrific horse, but feel victim to his date of birth. Sort of like Kelly Faris, great defender that she was, having shared her time with Brittany Griner.

 

[Fishy]

To you both, I was merely illustrating how weak this field was that no one even tried to challenge. He was 2 seconds slower than Secretariat. He is a fine horse, but a fine horse in a dismal year of racing.

I'm guessing you rarely watch horse racing, which is all right because no one else does either...

But you're wrongheaded here...

First, it's actually a pretty good crop of three-year olds and the field certainly did try to challenge the winner - three horses made their run at him on the turn. Unfortunately for them, American Pharoah ran the sixth-fastest Belmont ever and likely ran the fastest final quarter mile split in any Belmont. They were just run off their feet - no one is closing into a final quarter of 24.3 in a mile and a half race.

The horse that finished second ran his Belmont in about 2:27.50 - time is a tricky metric in horse racing, but that time would have won all but about a dozen Belmonts. (On that tricky metric....do you believe that Frosted is ten lengths faster than Seattle Slew? Probably not, but if you stake it all on time, there you are.)

Back to Secretariat....his 2:24 is the 56-game hitting streak of horse racing. No horse before or since has run a 2:24 on dirt - it's untouchable. It's the single finest and fastest performance in racing history. Deriding a horse's performance based on Secretariat's Belmont is like mocking the pilot who just landed your Delta Shuttle because Neil Armstrong once flew a rocket to the moon.

 

[Orangutan]

A triple crown .... 8 seconds slower than Secretariats at the 3/4 poll. What a dismal field.

No horse's time looks good in comparison to Secretariat. 2:24 is just not a realistic time for 1 1/2 miles. Fact is he ran the 6th best 1 1/2 mile Belmont time. Better than Affirmed, better than Seattle Slew.

Even if you are a curmudgeon like Andrew Beyer and note that the track was very fast, 2:26.65 is a nice time especially given that he ran that relatively unchallenged. I think he had more in the tank if he needed it.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I'm guessing you rarely watch horse racing, which is all right because no one else does either...

But you're wrongheaded here...

First, it's actually a pretty good crop of three-year olds and the field certainly did try to challenge the winner - three horses made their run at him on the turn. Unfortunately for them, American Pharoah ran the sixth-fastest Belmont ever and likely ran the fastest final quarter mile split in any Belmont. They were just run off their feet - no one is closing into a final quarter of 24.3 in a mile and a half race.

The horse that finished second ran his Belmont in about 2:27.50 - time is a tricky metric in horse racing, but that time would have won all but about a dozen Belmonts. (On that tricky metric....do you believe that Frosted is ten lengths faster than Seattle Slew? Probably not, but if you stake it all on time, there you are.)

Back to Secretariat....his 2:24 is the 56-game hitting streak of horse racing. No horse before or since has run a 2:24 on dirt - it's untouchable. It's the single finest and fastest performance in racing history. Deriding a horse's performance based on Secretariat's Belmont is like mocking the pilot who just landed your Delta Shuttle because Neil Armstrong once flew a rocket to the moon.

I know I'm an outlier on this one - even wrongheaded, but think Pharoah is a fine, fine horse. Asfar as the crop of three year olds thouh, I have to disagree. It's a racing industry line. I have a brother who has worked race handicapping and track jobs of "putting the field together" for 35+ years and he and the trainers he knows have been shaking there heads over this bunch since very early this year. I gather Pharoah will compete this year, then retire per breeding rights contract. I do expect him to continue to do very well.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Sham paid the price for that, didn't he?

Yes, he did, but he was a very, very fine horse. Secretariat, with no disrespect intended, has been called a "freak" by racing folk since he made his triple crown run and when laminitis claimed him in retirement the autopsy showed that his cardiopulmonary system was indeed freakish, with his heart being atleast twice .the normal size.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

No horse's time looks good in comparison to Secretariat. 2:24 is just not a realistic time for 1 1/2 miles. Fact is he ran the 6th best 1 1/2 mile Belmont time. Better than Affirmed, better than Seattle Slew.

Even if you are a curmudgeon like Andrew Beyer and note that the track was very fast, 2:26.65 is a nice time especially given that he ran that relatively unchallenged. I think he had more in the tank if he needed it.

Orang ... that 8 seconds slower thing is wrong - some postgame commentator error I picked up - it was much better than that. I'm definitely a curmudgeon - out of step - on this one, though, I freely confess and admit. My family (we all are riders - me thorouhbreds mostly) has kicked me around the block on this one!

 

[Orangutan]

Orang ... that 8 seconds slower thing is wrong - some postgame commentator error I picked up - it was much better than that. I'm definitely a curmudgeon - out of step - on this one, though, I freely confess and admit. My family (we all are riders - me thorouhbreds mostly) has kicked me around the block on this one!

Yes, I had a sense that wasn't quite accurate -- I was largely reacting to that general trope of comparing him to Secretariat.

Anyway, with respect to this year's 3-year-old group...certainly the racing media's narrative heading into the Derby was that this was a strong field based on a number of contenders dominating their preps. Dortmund looked great out west, Materiality ran a blazing Florida Derby, etc. My guess is that many of this year's crop are much better suited to a 1 mile or a 1 1/8 miles. Dortmund lacked a finishing kick in either the Derby or Preakness.

Materiality was right on Pharoah's shoulder for a while and should have been in good shape given the slow early fractions, he just ran out of gas. Frosted ran well but probably needed Materiality to go on a suicide mission and burn Pharoah out with fast fractions.

The good news is that the Zayats are talking that they want him to finish the season, so if he stays healthy will get to see him challenge the top older horses, hopefully more than once.

 

[meyers7]

You just can't trust them talking heads at all, hardly!

True, they might burn down the house.

 

[Icebear]

I know I'm an outlier on this one - even wrongheaded, but think Pharoah is a fine, fine horse. Asfar as the crop of three year olds thouh, I have to disagree. It's a racing industry line. I have a brother who has worked race handicapping and track jobs of "putting the field together" for 35+ years and he and the trainers he knows have been shaking there heads over this bunch since very early this year. I gather Pharoah will compete this year, then retire per breeding rights contract. I do expect him to continue to do very well.

Rocky, my wife follows horse racing incredibly intensely.She follows it year round in the US and abroad. She studies the lineage, the genetics, and watches racing daily on the HRC on satellite. The make up of this year's collection of horses was excellent. Note how many entries turned out for the Derby and then stayed for the other races. Their trainers truly expected they had quality horses and believed they could take a TC race. Another part that American Pharoah overcame was larger fields than Secretariat faced. Watch those old races and it is amazing how few the entries including at the Derby. Secretariat simply was a beast of an animal but American Pharoah faced some challenges Secretariat never faced including running the Derby from the 17th slot, those torrentials and the muddy to sopping wet Preakness track, and then ran away in the Belmont from start to finish with more left in the tank while gliding in at the line than any other horse. It was an awesome TC this year and a real test of horses and racing.


Derby 2015 18 entries / 1973 13 entries
Preakness 2015 8 / 1973 6
Belmont 2015 8 / 1973 5