OT: Stock trading

[StllH8L8ner]

I got absolutely kicked in the testicles with VTGN on Friday. Had a nice run up until a failed drug trial derailed things. Only have a few thousand shares and is a very small holding overall but it was down 85% on Friday. Never had that happen before…

 

[B1GEast]

Kicking myself for not jumping into a 3x bear fund.

Starting to think Roubini is right and went straight to cash this morning. I could have easily jumped into a bear fund and made 6 percent on today's decline and then sold at the bell. Too bad, so sad.

I think Thursday will be a day that sets the tone for market going forward. The Feds speak and a lot of companies will release earnings.

I'd rather be out for a few days if not more.

 

[B1GEast]

MSFT and GOOG both report missed earnings after market.

Tomorrow will bumpy day.

I think we're in a recession

 

[Excalibur]

MSFT and GOOG both report missed earnings after market.

Tomorrow will bumpy day.

I think we're in a recession

And the stock pops on the news. Nothing makes sense.

 

[B1GEast]

And the stock pops on the news. Nothing makes sense.

I know, it's strange. Let's see what the Fed does. The numbers might look very different at the closing bell

 

[HuskyHawk]

And the stock pops on the news. Nothing makes sense.

"Pops" It's cheap. The issues facing both MSFT and GOOG are almost entirely macro in nature, not specific to the companies. They missed but they missed less than expected. Numbers roughly in line with last year despite the macro challenges.

 

[Chin Diesel]

MSFT and GOOG both report missed earnings after market.

Tomorrow will bumpy day.

I think we're in a recession

And the stock pops on the news. Nothing makes sense.

Boeing misses across the board but gives positive outlook going forward. Stock rising.

 

[B1GEast]

"Pops" It's cheap. The issues facing both MSFT and GOOG are almost entirely macro in nature, not specific to the companies. They missed but they missed less than expected. Numbers roughly in line with last year despite the macro challenges.

View attachment 77796

It may in fact be cheap, but given the current climate, it also might not have bottomed.

Nothing wrong with buying either now with a long term outlook, but it's possible that if the recession isn't as shallow as thought, there still might be some room to buy at a better strike price, who knows?

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

"Pops" It's cheap. The issues facing both MSFT and GOOG are almost entirely macro in nature, not specific to the companies. They missed but they missed less than expected. Numbers roughly in line with last year despite the macro challenges.

Cloud # beats both companies

 

[HuskyHawk]

Cloud # beats both companies

Azure projected to grow 43% in the MSFT report to analysts. As with Amazon (where retail loses money), too many folks don't realize where much of the revenue comes from with MSFT and GOOG.

And yes @B1GEast I have no idea what the actual bottom is, but I am pretty sure it isn't much lower for either company. In this climate I'd be looking at deleveraged companies, with a wide moat and strong supply chain. Their smaller highly leveraged competitors are going to get wrecked by the current macro environment.

 

[HooperScooper]

MSFT and GOOG both report missed earnings after market.

Tomorrow will bumpy day.

I think we're in a recession

Bumpy indeed. Luckily a bump up. Reading the stock market is sometimes harder than betting on sports.

 

[8893]

The numbers might look very different at the closing bell

Indeed

 

[HuskyHawk]

Down early, bounced back.

 

[Woodson]

I got absolutely kicked in the testicles with VTGN on Friday. Had a nice run up until a failed drug trial derailed things. Only have a few thousand shares and is a very small holding overall but it was down 85% on Friday. Never had that happen before…

Damn son, that blows

 

[8893]

Down early, bounced back.

This is why I never even open my statements. For almost 30 years now.

The only time I've looked is when I had to fill out some CSS forms for potential financial aid for our kids' college, which was a total waste of time.

Except last week I got a statement for a rollover 401k from a job I left almost 25 years ago and I was curious what was in it (more than I expected!). The first page showed my asset breakdown as 100% stocks, and my suggested asset breakdown for my age showing around 30% bonds. Thinking I should probably make some adjustments on that point at some point soon.

But my point is that I am probably the furthest thing from @B1GEast 's day-trading mentality.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

First off, I want everyone associated with UConn to be successful. I just know that I know nothing and risk management is key right now. Part of this recovery is that there must be destruction of people, businesses and currency and I just don't want to be on the destroyed side. When global hegemony is on the table, I think a lot of rules dissolve and a lot of surprises can be coming.

Possible abridged version: East vs West Taiwan? ????? @huskyinfl

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

AAPL, AMZN ... potential cloud growth a la MSFT, GOOG ???

INTC oops

Each ongoing, long holds

 

[HuskyHawk]

This is why I never even open my statements. For almost 30 years now.

The only time I've looked is when I had to fill out some CSS forms for potential financial aid for our kids' college, which was a total waste of time.

Except last week I got a statement for a rollover 401k from a job I left almost 25 years ago and I was curious what was in it (more than I expected!). The first page showed my asset breakdown as 100% stocks, and my suggested asset breakdown for my age showing around 30% bonds. Thinking I should probably make some adjustments on that point at some point soon.

But my point is that I am probably the furthest thing from @B1GEast 's day-trading mentality.

Others are bigger experts than I am. The 30% bonds and sliding up for people our age was spot on in the 80s (when I majored in finance) and probably 90's. But the tendencies of the fed on interest rates has made the bond market more volatile than it was. It was also based on people retiring and dying earlier. Now if you shift out of equities too soon you may regret it in later years. I think dividend stocks, even utilities are a better play than bonds. I bought DUK (Duke energy) for my IRA years ago. It's solid as a rock in down times but still goes up over time and averages a 4% yield.

 

[8893]

Others are bigger experts than I am. The 30% bonds and sliding up for people our age was spot on in the 80s (when I majored in finance) and probably 90's. But the tendencies of the fed on interest rates has made the bond market more volatile than it was. It was also based on people retiring and dying earlier. Now if you shift out of equities too soon you may regret it in later years. I think dividend stocks, even utilities are a better play than bonds. I bought DUK (Duke energy) for my IRA years ago. It's solid as a rock in down times but still goes up over time and averages a 4% yield.

Seeing as I don't expect to retire--ever--this is probably even better advice for me.

 

[Bobol]

I am holding a much larger cash position than I typically hold.

Any suggestions on how to hold cash/ a liquid position in these more turbulent times ?

 

[B1GEast]

This is why I never even open my statements. For almost 30 years now.

The only time I've looked is when I had to fill out some CSS forms for potential financial aid for our kids' college, which was a total waste of time.

Except last week I got a statement for a rollover 401k from a job I left almost 25 years ago and I was curious what was in it (more than I expected!). The first page showed my asset breakdown as 100% stocks, and my suggested asset breakdown for my age showing around 30% bonds. Thinking I should probably make some adjustments on that point at some point soon.

But my point is that I am probably the furthest thing from @B1GEast 's day-trading mentality.

Not technically a day trader, but I am active, and cautious. If I see an opportunity I'll take it.

You have the right long-term outlook and you'll be fine. I'm looking to maximize where I can as a small investor in a challenging market where the daily swings and betas are high.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Seeing as I don't expect to retire--ever--this is probably even better advice for me.

As loathed as ES reasonably is in CT and DUK is in their region (both hoops team & ethically vacuous utility alike), their respective divs don't sukc for reasonably dependable cash flow (AARP decades or not). Hold some of each, plus NEE and VPU.

NEE's a FL utility with more extensive alt wind, solar, battery storage, etc than many (most?) utilities as a kicker. Other growth region utilities (D, SO?). Not so much under-invested TX utilities?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Enjoying this week's continued tech rally. Might be time for a beer soon.

 

[Excalibur]

Others are bigger experts than I am. The 30% bonds and sliding up for people our age was spot on in the 80s (when I majored in finance) and probably 90's. But the tendencies of the fed on interest rates has made the bond market more volatile than it was. It was also based on people retiring and dying earlier. Now if you shift out of equities too soon you may regret it in later years. I think dividend stocks, even utilities are a better play than bonds. I bought DUK (Duke energy) for my IRA years ago. It's solid as a rock in down times but still goes up over time and averages a 4% yield.

There's a difference between holding bonds and bond funds. Holding bonds to maturity and laddering for income purposes isn't a bad play for retirees, particularly now with prices down so there is no premium. Not suggesting that it's the only thing one should do, but it's not crazy to make it part of your strategy.

I don't own any bond funds save for some inflation-linked funds, but I am holding and intend to hold bond issuances from FedEx, IBM, and AB-Inbev.

 

[temery]

There's a difference between holding bonds and bond funds. Holding bonds to maturity and laddering for income purposes isn't a bad play for retirees, particularly now with prices down so there is no premium. Not suggesting that it's the only thing one should do, but it's not crazy to make it part of your strategy.

I don't own any bond funds save for some inflation-linked funds, but I am holding and intend to hold bond issuances from FedEx, IBM, and AB-Inbev.

How do you buy FedX, IBM, etc bonds?