OT: Stock trading

[tiger8mush]

First trading week of 2021. Should be interesting

What your pick for this week's big gainer (non-crypto)? @tentoes4rings you too, since it was your idea

 

[temery]

S&P 500 Has Only Been This Expensive One Other Time — At The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble

Economist Robert ShillerBy at least one popular investing metric, U.S. stocks have only been this expensive one other time in history, and it didn't end well the first time around.According to the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio -- a measure of market value based on 10 years of...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[HuskyHawk]

Should’ve asked this yesterday: what were the best picks, worst picks, and picks that will be great in 2021? Stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, etc

I find 2021 like treading on some melting ice. Despite massive losses in March, and some selling, I did well in 2020.

I'm an investor, not a trader. So I tend to look for long term trends. At the moment, I think e-games, solar, continued support of Work From Home (both personal and corporate), EDGE, 5G are set for long term upside. I think commercial REITS are looking at downside. I am wary of financials, transportation. Digital over analog for a simple way to look at it.

I think inflation is going to be a problem. We are essentially stimulating an economy that can't grow or invest as normal because we are restricting it at the same time. My best analogy is that we are in a 1970 Chevelle SS 454, with our foot on the brake and the gas pedal to the floor. Quite the smoke show, but it isn't going anywhere. When we finally release the brakes, will there be enough in the tank?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Very informative short video on the rapidly changing investment landscape through the lens of ARK Investments:

I am only 3 minutes in, but yes, this is exactly what I'm talking about. And what our lead strategy SVP at work talks about as well.

 

[the Q]

I find 2021 like treading on some melting ice. Despite massive losses in March, and some selling, I did well in 2020.

I'm an investor, not a trader. So I tend to look for long term trends. At the moment, I think e-games, solar, continued support of Work From Home (both personal and corporate), EDGE, 5G are set for long term upside. I think commercial REITS are looking at downside. I am wary of financials, transportation. Digital over analog for a simple way to look at it.

I think inflation is going to be a problem. We are essentially stimulating an economy that can't grow or invest as normal because we are restricting it at the same time. My best analogy is that we are in a 1970 Chevelle SS 454, with our foot on the brake and the gas pedal to the floor. Quite the smoke show, but it isn't going anywhere. When we finally release the brakes, will there be enough in the tank?

Good financials like local banks and insurance companies (ie pru and met) should be fine.

Mortgage reits will be interesting to watch.

Finding decent bargains for buy and hold is tough. I’m seeing a lot of bargains in banks right now, and UNM for insurance.

OHI for reits also seems like a good buy imo.

 

[Caronimo]

QS is getting REKT! Buy in sub $40 maybe.

 

[Caronimo]

Anyone own TTCF? Interested.

 

[Matrim55]

QS is getting REKT! Buy in sub $40 maybe.

Why’s it crashing so hard? I have to admit I’ve stayed away from news about it because I didn’t take the opportunity to buy in at $12 and have felt lousy ever since.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Good financials like local banks and insurance companies (ie pru and met) should be fine.

Mortgage reits will be interesting to watch.

Finding decent bargains for buy and hold is tough. I’m seeing a lot of bargains in banks right now, and UNM for insurance.

OHI for reits also seems like a good buy imo.

I think they are bargains for a reason. They need to start shedding branches like mad. If I go into financials beyond PayPal, which I own, I will look for those with the best digital assets and fewest real estate assets.

I think housing/mortgage is strong. Commercial, especially retail, is in trouble. Long term. It may take some time.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Why’s it crashing so hard? I have to admit I’ve stayed away from news about it because I didn’t take the opportunity to buy in at $12 and have felt lousy ever since.

They updated their S1 this morning. 300 million shares. 60 million not subject to lockup, so can be sold immediately.

 

[the Q]

I think they are bargains for a reason. They need to start shedding branches like mad. If I go into financials beyond PayPal, which I own, I will look for those with the best digital assets and fewest real estate assets.

I think housing/mortgage is strong. Commercial, especially retail, is in trouble. Long term. It may take some time.

unless your commercial is apartments, hospitals/medicals or storage and e-commerce warehouses. Plus data warehouses.

 

[HuskyHawk]

unless your commercial is apartments, hospitals/medicals or storage and e-commerce warehouses. Plus data warehouses.

Quality Colocation facilities are undervalued in my opinion. But I get the sense that there are people in finance who don't really quite get what is happening. Some certainly do. Data warehouses aren't physical things. Hardly hear that word much anymore since I worked at Red Brick Systems, the original Data Warehousing company.

That ARK video really maps closely to what I hear. But it omits some things. You want to run autonomous electric cars and trucks? Ok. What does that require, aside from improved software and batteries? It requires robust 5G, and it requires distributed (Edge) computing that can bring the latency down to times that won't result in those vehicles killing people. The amount of compute and data storage required for this future is simply staggering. And Amazon shows us just how much warehouse space you need for ecommerce. All those empty K-Mart plazas can become distribution centers.

It's going to be an interesting ride.

 

[Scot-e]

Quality Colocation facilities are undervalued in my opinion. But I get the sense that there are people in finance who don't really quite get what is happening. Some certainly do. Data warehouses aren't physical things. Hardly hear that word much anymore since I worked at Red Brick Systems, the original Data Warehousing company.

That ARK video really maps closely to what I hear. But it omits some things. You want to run autonomous electric cars and trucks? Ok. What does that require, aside from improved software and batteries? It requires robust 5G, and it requires distributed (Edge) computing that can bring the latency down to times that won't result in those vehicles killing people. The amount of compute and data storage required for this future is simply staggering. And Amazon shows us just how much warehouse space you need for ecommerce. All those empty K-Mart plazas can become distribution centers.

It's going to be an interesting ride.

Adaptive reuse is going to be a big part of real estate moving forward. I have been looking into projects like the above for several months now. Banks are currently the problem but that should open up some time this year- or at least I hope so.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Damn, this beatdown is sooo summer 2020. Circuit breaker incoming?

Gonna be a wild ride this week.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Adaptive reuse is going to be a big part of real estate moving forward. I have been looking into projects like the above for several months now. Banks are currently the problem but that should open up some time this year- or at least I hope so.

Agree. I think the physical landscape of many communities is going to change more than people may currently expect. Unfortunately, I don't know who in the real estate and construction space is actually positioned to capitalize on this. Office space can become residential, some brick and mortar retail can become local distribution/warehousing centers. Amazon hired around 450k people last year.

 

[the Q]

Agree. I think the physical landscape of many communities is going to change more than people may currently expect. Unfortunately, I don't know who in the real estate and construction space is actually positioned to capitalize on this. Office space can become residential, some brick and mortar retail can become local distribution/warehousing centers. Amazon hired around 450k people last year.

Monster companies like Brookfield seem to be the best positioned.

 

[temery]

Adaptive reuse is going to be a big part of real estate moving forward. I have been looking into projects like the above for several months now. Banks are currently the problem but that should open up some time this year- or at least I hope so.

My local mall has said they're looking into turning the empty space (Sears, Macy's, etc) into housing, adding a pharmacy, grocery, etc. basically a self contained community with retail for the general public also.

 

[Caronimo]

My local mall has said they're looking into turning the empty space (Sears, Macy's, etc) into housing, adding a pharmacy, grocery, etc. basically a self contained community with retail for the general public also.

Because who doesn't want to live in a mall?!

 

[HuskyHawk]

Because who doesn't want to live in a mall?!

Maybe more people than you might think.

Villages at the Domain Apartments (villagesdomain.com)

Luxury Apartments for Rent in Austin, TX | The Standard at Domain

 

[tentoes4rings]

Yeah. Wondering if it’s not too hot. Thinking I should just cash out all my crypto and buy things like reits for income

From my limited experience with crypto, I think stable coins like ETH and LTC still have a lot of runway, I’m mostly in just ETH now with a little LINK and LTC. Last night I couldn’t sleep until 2 AM because it was too much fun watching these things run. After a selloff, I’m encouraged by how they rebounded. Speaking of volatile things, I pray the guys on here talking about QS took some profits. I’m so relieved that I took a lot of profits last Thursday. Today is a good reminder that there’s no shame in taking good profits.

 

[tentoes4rings]

What your pick for this week's big gainer (non-crypto)? @tentoes4rings you too, since it was your idea

Since selling a lot of my stuff recently, I’m trying not to pay attention as much now but I think FUTU and stocks like NIO and RUN can keep going up.

 

[8893]

Because who doesn't want to live in a mall?!

Maybe more people than you might think.

Villages at the Domain Apartments (villagesdomain.com)

Luxury Apartments for Rent in Austin, TX | The Standard at Domain

My 14 year old daughter would move in tomorrow.

 

[huskyinfl]

I find 2021 like treading on some melting ice. Despite massive losses in March, and some selling, I did well in 2020.

I'm an investor, not a trader. So I tend to look for long term trends. At the moment, I think e-games, solar, continued support of Work From Home (both personal and corporate), EDGE, 5G are set for long term upside. I think commercial REITS are looking at downside. I am wary of financials, transportation. Digital over analog for a simple way to look at it.

I think inflation is going to be a problem. We are essentially stimulating an economy that can't grow or invest as normal because we are restricting it at the same time. My best analogy is that we are in a 1970 Chevelle SS 454, with our foot on the brake and the gas pedal to the floor. Quite the smoke show, but it isn't going anywhere. When we finally release the brakes, will there be enough in the tank?

Wary of financials? Why? Rates have to go up at some point. Bought in 2-3 months ago. I think they are undervalued. Still haven't rebounded to pre March levels.

 

[HuskyHawk]

My 14 year old daughter would move in tomorrow.

I have had to spend a lot of time at the Domain the last few years. Is it sterile by the standards of gritty old northeastern cities? Yes. Is it entirely safe, clean and pleasant with loads of amenities outside your door and ample parking? Yes, yes it is. So if you're one of those young tech workers out of college in Austin, it's a pretty nice compromise.

Harder to pull this off up north, but Charlotte has a similar property. I do think they could heat sidewalks, and put plastic and space heaters up for the outside dining and make it work.

Not sure when I'll be back. I had just discovered a new spot at the beginning of Covid, a pretty cool pub inside Whole Foods.

 

[HooperScooper]

Maybe more people than you might think.

Villages at the Domain Apartments (villagesdomain.com)

Luxury Apartments for Rent in Austin, TX | The Standard at Domain

Surprised you didn't post the local option. Not really in the mall per se, just attached to it.

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