Unemployment rate is going north of 20, just saw that labor participation lowest since 1973.
Stocks are still high on the stimulus measures. I just don’t see the fundamentals in a macro economic numbers dictating upward movement.
If you can pick a single stock that is doing better due to this situation (tech, consumer staples) I get it. But less jobs, less money for people mean less earnings. The economy is retracting. People spending less.
The only thing that seems to be driving these prices to the expectation of further government stimulus.
just wondering if we are in the dead cat bounce part of the crash.
Bloomberg TV seems pretty sour on the environment.
What do I know though. The more I got into the stock market after my journalism career, the less I was sure I knew about where things are going .
Yes and no.
I think it's a great buyer's market so long as you're really good at just sticking to really, really basic, fundamental investing strategies. It's not the time to take a on a lot of risk - but it's def. time to pick up long-term growth stocks that are underperforming.
Low volatility, high yield ETF's, lower priced oil stocks - they're going to be great buys even if they're down over the next 2-3 years. I found one ETF that trades normally at $29-$30 at $5 and rapidly climbing the last month w. a 7% dividend and a P/E at like 3. Even in the worst case scenario, it's *five dollars a share*.
I'm staying away from risky stuff in tech outside of mobile gaming. It's growth potential is huge and it's cheap to produce, affordable entertainment. I think there's 1,000% a ceiling on it, but if people want to buy stonks - those are fairly safe bets and still cheap to get into (I'm up 64.38% on GLUU at $9.42 a share and I'm up 8.2% on ZYNGA at $7.76 per share) and growing in a big market. And even if they don't, they're not stocks that are expensive enough to soil your pants.
And it's super lame - but i'm sticking to the old Warren Buffett model and that's it:
-Stock has to be stable/understandable
-Good long-term prospects (will it be around in 20 years)?
-Good leadership (esp. w/ regards to how they manage debt)
-Currently undervalued.
Keep the P/E below 10. Deep the P/BV under 1. Make sure they quarterly have more revenue than liabilities and *in most cases* - it's going to be a safe investment regardless of *most* of what's going on in the marketplace.
And that's really it. Just don't get too adventurous. Do your homework. And of course, do what works for you and don't overextend yourself.