OT: Stock trading

[the Q]

Amazed at the number of short-term ”traders” here.

Most of mine are for the long run. Trying to swing on the short term is brutally hard.

 

[dogpause]

Cause most of us are old.

 

[McLovin]

Don't think anyone has brought this up... what key metrics do y'all look at when picking your investments and what tools do you use to evaluate stocks?

I try to initially screen companies based on 3+ years of strong revenue growth (typically at least 20%+ each year), companies with little or no debt (enterprise value < market cap), strong free cash flow (I think its more important than EPS). Ideally look for midsized market cap companies, $1B - $20B. From there I will dive into the the individual companies to get the full picture.

I used to use S&P Capital IQ for all my investment screening and analysis, its like Yahoo Finance on super steroids. Now I no longer have access to that tool, it's much harder to screen for new investments. What free tools do people out there use to discover stocks?

 

[Scot-e]

I have stocks and crypto. I think crypto is on the last downward leg of a 5 way move right now. Once it tests some lower levels I thinks it’s going to make a big move to the upside.

 

[Sphinx]

Although a lifelong suburban liberal, I trade gold and gold shares like the most neanderthal of right-wingers. Just something I got hooked on 40 years ago. Never a better time for it. I am currently in Jesse Livermore's "Get right and sit tight" mode, long on the gold share ETF "GDX" and on gold itself. Convinced that we are in a secular deflation that will see the broad market retest March lows and gold go to new all-time highs as central banks continue to print money in a failing attempt to reflate. Senior gold producers operating in the best of worlds -- central banks supporting the gold price at high levels while the cost-of mining, largely energy costs, remain low. Gold is the vehicle here, trading as an alternative currency, not silver, which tends to trade as a commodity in deflationary times.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Confidence from within the company that they will attract top innovators.



Amazon is not the evil company many make it out to be. If you only listen to the media then sure the warehouses are hell on earth. But I know lots and lots of people who work in them full-time and they say people enjoy working there. They were one of the first major corporations to bump their minimum wage to $15 and they will go to $16-17 if $15 becomes the norm. They have a real plan in place to run solely on renewable energy by 2030 and will become carbon neutral by 2040. They’re investing the entire $4 billion of their Q1 profit into helping fight the virus and keep their employees safe. They are far from perfect, as is almost every company but they’re not as evil as the mainstream media wants you to believe.

People don’t get it. Amazon isn‘t a great stock because of online sales. It’s because of AWS, streaming and the data they collect.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Been investing for just under 10 years and I've learned a bunch along the way by making mistakes. Could probably write a whole book on the mistakes I made (either positions gone wrong or stocks I never pulled the trigger on). I never trade stocks (technical driven positions) but invest in stocks for the long-term share appreciation.

The past 3-4 years I've really refined my strategy to focus on industry leaders or up-and-coming disrupters. I focus mostly on tech, specifically B2B tech and financial technology.

My biggest position by far is Square (SQ) which I bulked up on during March. I also own Salesforce (CRM), PayPal (PYPL), Mitek (MITK), Health Equity (HQY), Qualys (QYLS) and Workhorse (WKHS).

My average annual return the past 5 years has been almost 18% and over the past 3 years my average annual return has been 27%.

Here are two of the biggest mistakes people make when investing (including things that I constantly battle with):

1) Buying something without fully understanding the business and their industry. Twitter and message board tips shouldn't drive an investment strategy.

2) Hesitating to buy a stock you've done your research because "experts" say its a bad investment or the stock price is down. If you need external validation (either experts saying buy or rising share prices) you've missed your opportunity to make good money, most likely.

#1 is the key for me. I’m mostly in tech, which is my industry for the last 24 years and where I understand the business better. Aside from that I stick to dividend stocks with decent yields, high floors and some upside. AT&T for example. Oil stocks when down provide a dividend stock buying opportunity as well.

 

[huskyrob1]

You must be thinking of a different company because Netflix never had that price action and never hit 700.

Oh yes it did, you are definitely incorrect sir. You have to figure in the splits, when researching price action from years back.

Here you go know-it-all.......

Netflix splits stock 7 for 1

With the long-anticipated move, the soaring stock will start trading at its post-split price next month.

www.google.com

 

[tentoes4rings]

Most of mine are for the long run. Trying to swing on the short term is brutally hard.

I thought I was pretty good at trading back in 2000-01. After being out 20 years, I chose a great time to get back in at the lows but with the ever changing landscape and Covid, this has been a historically difficult time to trade. I held part of Amazon position and FIVN through their earnings recently, only to see them get hammered the next day. What I’m learning is on true trading, selling right before earnings are released and cashing out by 4 PM are sound strategies. There are too many after hours economic updates from Europe, Asia, and pre market job reports that can really affect the open the following day. Couple that with drug and vaccine updates, as well as state reopenings and you’ve got a recipe for huge volatility. As we get further into this thread, I’d love to start sharing the tools we’re using. I personally use Schwab’s trading platform and stockcharts.com but would love some better deals, particularly with regard to news affecting each stock.

 

[the Q]

I thought I was pretty good at trading back in 2000-01. After being out 20 years, I chose a great time to get back in at the lows but with the ever changing landscape and Covid, this has been a historically difficult time to trade. I held part of Amazon position and FIVN through their earnings recently, only to see them get hammered the next day. What I’m learning is on true trading, selling right before earnings are released and cashing out by 4 PM are sound strategies. There are too many after hours economic updates from Europe, Asia, and pre market job reports that can really affect the open the following day. Couple that with drug and vaccine updates, as well as state reopenings and you’ve got a recipe for huge volatility. As we get further into this thread, I’d love to start sharing the tools we’re using. I personally use Schwab’s trading platform and stockcharts.com but would love some better deals, particularly with regard to news affecting each stock.

I’m trying to get full lots of 9-12 dividend stocks that will return me a full share per quarter for the next 30-35 years lol

 

[casual-yardin]

My views are not shaped by the mainstream media. Thanks though. The Amazon’s of the world have decimated local economies. They are profit-oriented machines. They seek tax breaks AND subsidies. They open fulfillment centers and fill them with part-time workers. They gobble up and stymie competition. We used to break up such monopolies and now they are essentially propped up. Bezos earns something like $1,000 per second. He donates .0008% of his net worth and people clap. It’s like me or you donating $7. He gets zero credit for paying people below living wages of $15/hr. Try living in CT taking home $450/week. And how long until you can’t even leave the house without giving them money? Soon enough they’ll own the sidewalks and the air.

I also have a brother who has worked for Walmart, Walgreens, Subway, and Amazon, and he said Amazon treated their employees the worst out of those four. Walgreens was the best.

Amazon is not a monopoly. Not even close.

 

[HobokenHusky]

 

[huskyrob1]

I thought I was pretty good at trading back in 2000-01. After being out 20 years, I chose a great time to get back in at the lows but with the ever changing landscape and Covid, this has been a historically difficult time to trade. I held part of Amazon position and FIVN through their earnings recently, only to see them get hammered the next day. What I’m learning is on true trading, selling right before earnings are released and cashing out by 4 PM are sound strategies. There are too many after hours economic updates from Europe, Asia, and pre market job reports that can really affect the open the following day. Couple that with drug and vaccine updates, as well as state reopenings and you’ve got a recipe for huge volatility. As we get further into this thread, I’d love to start sharing the tools we’re using. I personally use Schwab’s trading platform and stockcharts.com but would love some better deals, particularly with regard to news affecting each stock.

I wish over the years I had had more confidence in some of my trades. In 2001 Amazon's stock price crashed down to $6 per share after reporting a horrendous quarter. I was smart enough to pick up some shares at $6.50 and thought I was a genius when I sold them for $18.

 

[buddy]

I wish over the years I had had more confidence in some of my trades. In 2001 Amazon's stock price crashed down to $6 per share after reporting a horrendous quarter. I was smart enough to pick up some shares at $6.50 and thought I was a genius when I sold them for $18.

A lot of it has to do with your age. Timing of the market is very difficult. If you are young and have 20-30 years to recover, then you may do well with individual stocks. I believe that blue chip funds and mixture of stock and bond funds, with low expenses, would be best if you are at or approaching retirement. I also have always believed in tech and health care funds as reliable options. Neither of those industries will be going away. You want to minimize the ups and downs by having a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, especially if you are at or nearing retirement.

 

[tentoes4rings]

I wish over the years I had had more confidence in some of my trades. In 2001 Amazon's stock price crashed down to $6 per share after reporting a horrendous quarter. I was smart enough to pick up some shares at $6.50 and thought I was a genius when I sold them for $18.

I remember in 2000 my dad used to always say Bezos was a nerd who would never make a profit. Don’t know why I was never in the stock until recently. Next pullback I will get back in and hold for life.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

Confidence from within the company that they will attract top innovators.



Amazon is not the evil company many make it out to be. If you only listen to the media then sure the warehouses are hell on earth. But I know lots and lots of people who work in them full-time and they say people enjoy working there. They were one of the first major corporations to bump their minimum wage to $15 and they will go to $16-17 if $15 becomes the norm. They have a real plan in place to run solely on renewable energy by 2030 and will become carbon neutral by 2040. They’re investing the entire $4 billion of their Q1 profit into helping fight the virus and keep their employees safe. They are far from perfect, as is almost every company but they’re not as evil as the mainstream media wants you to believe.

liked for the amazon part. not the other stuff.

 

[UConnStats]

If anyone wants to have a little coronavirus fun with a penny stock I think $MARK actually has some legs and should see more hype with their upcoming earnings call.

 

[the Q]

I wish over the years I had had more confidence in some of my trades. In 2001 Amazon's stock price crashed down to $6 per share after reporting a horrendous quarter. I was smart enough to pick up some shares at $6.50 and thought I was a genius when I sold them for $18.

My corporate law professor, legit rock star in his field, thought he was smart for selling Apple at like $50 After buying it under 20.

 

[FlakeyFoont]

The best way to end up with a million dollar stock portfolio? Start with two million.

 

[JimHurley]

If anyone wants to have a little coronavirus fun with a penny stock I think $MARK actually has some legs and should see more hype with their upcoming earnings call.

GERN is another penny I’ve been watching for a while. Almost pulled the trigger in mid March at $0.90 but didn’t. Today it’s at $1.31!!

 

[huskyrob1]

GERN is another penny I’ve been watching for a while. Almost pulled the trigger in mid March at $0.90 but didn’t. Today it’s at $1.31!!

GERN is a bio tech company that I followed in the late 90's and early 2000's. They have never had any success but continue to burn through cash. I would be very careful. Check out the Medical Technology Stock Letter run by John McCamant, I think they used to follow Geron, but my guess is now with the company being a penny stock they no longer do, but you never know. MTSL follows about 20 bio tech start ups, as well as established ones, with recommendations for each. The letter comes out once a month, and each week there is an audio update that you can call in to.

 

[superjohn]

GERN is another penny I’ve been watching for a while. Almost pulled the trigger in mid March at $0.90 but didn’t. Today it’s at $1.31!!

I lost a lot of money on that stock a couple years ago.

 

[JimHurley]

GERN is a bio tech company that I followed in the late 90's and early 2000's. They have never had any success but continue to burn through cash. I would be very careful. Check out the Medical Technology Stock Letter run by John McCamant, I think they used to follow Geron, but my guess is now with the company being a penny stock they no longer do, but you never know. MTSL follows about 20 bio tech start ups, as well as established ones, with recommendations for each. The letter comes out once a month, and each week there is an audio update that you can call in to.

Yeah, my days of following that are just about done. I was only interested in it below $1.

I lost a lot of money on that stock a couple years ago.

Around summer 2018? I owned it briefly and sold at a nice profit. The next week it dropped over 70%. Since then I’ve largely done away with stocks under $20.

 

[the Q]

Yeah, my days of following that are just about done. I was only interested in it below $1.



Around summer 2018? I owned it briefly and sold at a nice profit. The next week it dropped over 70%. Since then I’ve largely done away with stocks under $20.

There are a few buys under 20 left out there imo. But they’re not legitimately $20 stocks.


I’m still pissed I missed out on ozk when it dropped to like 16.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Anyone have any big misses? When I first started trading out of college in 2013, I was short term trading. Now I mainly buy and hold.

My first trade ever was 700 shares of AMRN at $1.61 a share. Sold it at $2.20. It recently traded at $24. Would have been a $16K gain.

Same year I bought 34 shares of DXCM at $32.58/share. Sold at $34. Trading at $405 now. $12,000 gain.

Bought $660 shares of CVM at $.62 sold at $.90. Trading at $14.22 today. $9k gain.

Lots of other early sells which would have netted $3-8k range gains as well. NVAX, PLUG, BBY.