OT: Stock trading

[XLCenterFan]

Confidence from within the company that they will attract top innovators.



Amazon is not the evil company many make it out to be. If you only listen to the media then sure the warehouses are hell on earth. But I know lots and lots of people who work in them full-time and they say people enjoy working there. They were one of the first major corporations to bump their minimum wage to $15 and they will go to $16-17 if $15 becomes the norm. They have a real plan in place to run solely on renewable energy by 2030 and will become carbon neutral by 2040. They’re investing the entire $4 billion of their Q1 profit into helping fight the virus and keep their employees safe. They are far from perfect, as is almost every company but they’re not as evil as the mainstream media wants you to believe.

My views are not shaped by the mainstream media. Thanks though. The Amazon’s of the world have decimated local economies. They are profit-oriented machines. They seek tax breaks AND subsidies. They open fulfillment centers and fill them with part-time workers. They gobble up and stymie competition. We used to break up such monopolies and now they are essentially propped up. Bezos earns something like $1,000 per second. He donates .0008% of his net worth and people clap. It’s like me or you donating $7. He gets zero credit for paying people below living wages of $15/hr. Try living in CT taking home $450/week. And how long until you can’t even leave the house without giving them money? Soon enough they’ll own the sidewalks and the air.

I also have a brother who has worked for Walmart, Walgreens, Subway, and Amazon, and he said Amazon treated their employees the worst out of those four. Walgreens was the best.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Tech stocks all the way.

 

[navery12]

This thread is making me want to start investing in some stocks

 

[JimHurley]

My views are not shaped by the mainstream media. Thanks though. The Amazon’s of the world have decimated local economies. They are profit-oriented machines. They seek tax breaks AND subsidies. They open fulfillment centers and fill them with part-time workers. They gobble up and stymie competition. We used to break up such monopolies and now they are essentially propped up. Bezos earns something like $1,000 per second. He donates .0008% of his net worth and people clap. It’s like me or you donating $7. He gets zero credit for paying people below living wages of $15/hr. Try living in CT taking home $450/week. And how long until you can’t even leave the house without giving them money? Soon enough they’ll own the sidewalks and the air.

I also have a brother who has worked for Walmart, Walgreens, Subway, and Amazon, and he said Amazon treated their employees the worst out of those four.

As I said, no company is perfect. They haven’t decimated local economies by accident. Nobody is forced to shop through Amazon. It’s the best thing to ever happen to the American consumer no matter what your feelings are towards them.

Bezos does not earn $1000 per second. Another myth hyped up by the media...Bezos’ total compensation from Amazon last year was $1,681,000 of which $1,600,000 was spent on security. He brings home an $81,000 salary. All of his wealth is in his ownership shares of his company. That is not a liquid asset. If his company went to zero tomorrow so would all of his wealth. Don’t hate someone because of the wealth they generated for themselves. If you founded Amazon you could have his net worth too.

 

[JimHurley]

Tech stocks all the way.

Always a safe bet. No matter what.

This thread is making me want to start investing in some stocks

If you want to get into it, I’d recommend tuning into CNBC when you can. They bring on a lot of real successful people with meaningful advice and recommendations.

 

[XLCenterFan]

As I said, no company is perfect. They haven’t decimated local economies by accident. Nobody is forced to shop through Amazon. It’s the best thing to ever happen to the American consumer no matter what your feelings are towards them.

Bezos does not earn $1000 per second. Another myth hyped up by the media...Bezos’ total compensation from Amazon last year was $1,681,000 of which $1,600,000 was spent on security. He brings home an $81,000 salary. All of his wealth is in his ownership shares of his company. That is not a liquid asset. If his company went to zero tomorrow so would all of his wealth. Don’t hate someone because of the wealth they generated for themselves. If you founded Amazon you could have his net worth too.

People get wealthy within a system or structure that allows and/or promotes their wealth accumulation. No one becomes wealthy in a vacuum. They should then contribute back to that society accordingly and proportionally. I could never become that wealthy. I would do something good with it and put it to use before it accumulated. Wealth is worthless if all it does it sit and grow. It needs to also contribute.

 

[JimHurley]

People get wealthy within a system or structure that allows and/or promotes their wealth accumulation. No one becomes wealthy in a vacuum. They should then contribute back to that society accordingly and proportionally. I could never become that wealthy. I would do something good with it and put it to use before it accumulated. Wealth is worthless if all it does it sit and grow. It needs to also contribute.

That’s fair. I also think it’s fair to allow individuals the autonomy to spend their money how they like. It’s totally cool for people to have different opinions on this.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Agreed. We could go back and forth on this forever. A nice debate on a Saturday night. Let’s get back to stock picks!!

 

[huskyrob1]

Have made some good investment over the years.

Amazon at $350
Netflix at $100
SQ at $40
SHOP at $70
TWLO at $27
LULU at $45

Recently I bought GRUB at $35, ETSY at $40, COST at $288, and PGR at $69

Shorted Netflix years ago on it's first big jump up. Shorted it at $297, it all time high at that time was 305, then it crashed down to 65-70, covered and went long. Kept my long position until it hit 700, then sold it. A couple weeks later they announced a 7-1 split, then it went from 95 to where it is now.

I've been a trader for years, made my first big chunk of change on Cisco Systems in the early 90's.

I wouldn't go long on anything now except gold. My advice now is to short the Dow or Russell 2000. Good market shorts now are the TZA, SPXU or FAZ. This market is so overbought it's laughable that people are still buying. If you insist on going long, look at commodities with a good dividend, miners, fertilizer, potash, nitrogen stocks. FCX, CF, Mosaic, etc.

 

[GG]

Got back into stocks when the market hit the March lows and I have been nibbling since. But I am nervous things have gone up too quickly. At this point I am not doing much. Some of these buys are with a COVID19 free future in mind.

BABA
BAC
BOX
CAR
CSCO
DBX
DIS
DKNG
GOOG
JPM
KO
MCD
MGM
MSGE
OTIS
PG
QQQ
SBUX
SWK
SYY
TRP
WFC

almost bought TWLO early last week before it reported and could kick myself for not following through.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Tidbit on Amazon. Another dad in my kid's school works there and is I believe in IT. I guess the absolute max salary is $150k BUT, your bonus is awarded in Amazon shares so you end up doing quite well at the end of the day if you're a good performer as a lower salaried employee.

He also says if you're in the same position there for more than 5 years, you may want to get your resume updated because they like to encourage upward mobility and if you're staying put, it means you're getting too comfortable.

 

[Deepster]

Got lucky and bought two pharma stocks in Feb. Moderna and Novavax. Moderna was 19.00 and sold it at 59.00. Novavax was 9.00 and I sold it at 22.00. Took the gain and bought Starbucks at 72.00.

Starbucks is starting to slowly open globally and will soon follow suit in America. Great company and now I’ll just sit tight on it long term.

 

[uconndogs]

Amazed at the number of short-term ”traders” here.

 

[djct1999]

Now more than ever, I have a hard time of making any sense of market moves. With 85% of daily volume driven by algos, we are at the mercy of computer programs reliant on mathematics. They are programmed to push the markets to its limits. They sell weakness and buy strength, which is why we rarely see intraday swings, unless news hits. What makes things worse, is that as sophisticated as some of these algos are, there is also a commonality to it all. The only variable that's really different is the beta they assign to each name. So most of these strategies have very similar portfolios. If one feels pressure, if one delevers, they all do. This puts immense strain on the overall market. Often times, its nearly impossible for the human eye to even detect. Or its too late. Its also why we overshoot. The last leg down in March was just that. Quant strategies were forced to move to new regime and delevered. The quick snap back was simple mean reversion. My guess is we are now trading at fair value for time being and will most likely stay in a tight range throughout the next quarter. Worst case scenario is somewhat priced in and the Fed has publicly created a floor. Once the economy gets back on its feet, look for another spike upwards. Until then, I think we move sideways.

I learned the hard way in 2008/09 to never fight the Fed and I know personally to never fight a computer algo. The names recommended on here all seem good. My adivce, forget investing in single names. Put your money and the SPX and over the long term maximize your return.

 

[dogpause]

Stocks? Now? No way, too risky. I trade vertical option spreads -- would you rather be the casino, or the gambler? Would you rather be the insurance company, or the insured? Trading vertical spreads still has risks, but they're smaller, defined risks. It's basically a math exercise, and you have a slight numeric advantage.

 

[huskyinfl]

This is how you know it's time to sell.

 

[superjohn]

Shorted Netflix years ago on it's first big jump up. Shorted it at $297, it all time high at that time was 305, then it crashed down to 65-70, covered and went long. Kept my long position until it hit 700, then sold it. A couple weeks later they announced a 7-1 split, then it went from 95 to where it is now.

I've been a trader for years, made my first big chunk of change on Cisco Systems in the early 90's.

I wouldn't go long on anything now except gold. My advice now is to short the Dow or Russell 2000. Good market shorts now are the TZA, SPXU or FAZ. This market is so overbought it's laughable that people are still buying. If you insist on going long, look at commodities with a good dividend, miners, fertilizer, potash, nitrogen stocks. FCX, CF, Mosaic, etc.

You must be thinking of a different company because Netflix never had that price action and never hit 700.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Amazed at the number of short-term ”traders” here.

I don't buy for the short term. With my playing-around money, I got into UAL and LUV, but didn't have the stomach to buy DAL last Wednesday when airlines cratered (should have).

I know it'll take 3-5 years for airlines to recover, but a 100-200% return over that time is pretty good. These companies didn't just lose 70% of their long term value overnight.

Everything else (i.e. the other 98% of my portfolio is in funds, large cap, small cap, international, total stock market, whatever). I don't try to beat the market and don't need to. With the absurd fiscal and monetary policies pursued in this country, the stock market will always be in great shape and better than the economy at large.

 

[Slasher]

I'd definitely agree with the Disney recommendation. It's perhaps 30-40% undervalued right now. It's a steal at just over $100 a share.

 

[temery]

My money is in cash, and the lottery.

 

[the Q]

Amazed at the number of short-term ”traders” here.

Most of mine are for the long run. Trying to swing on the short term is brutally hard.

 

[dogpause]

Cause most of us are old.

 

[McLovin]

Don't think anyone has brought this up... what key metrics do y'all look at when picking your investments and what tools do you use to evaluate stocks?

I try to initially screen companies based on 3+ years of strong revenue growth (typically at least 20%+ each year), companies with little or no debt (enterprise value < market cap), strong free cash flow (I think its more important than EPS). Ideally look for midsized market cap companies, $1B - $20B. From there I will dive into the the individual companies to get the full picture.

I used to use S&P Capital IQ for all my investment screening and analysis, its like Yahoo Finance on super steroids. Now I no longer have access to that tool, it's much harder to screen for new investments. What free tools do people out there use to discover stocks?

 

[Scot-e]

I have stocks and crypto. I think crypto is on the last downward leg of a 5 way move right now. Once it tests some lower levels I thinks it’s going to make a big move to the upside.

 

[Sphinx]

Although a lifelong suburban liberal, I trade gold and gold shares like the most neanderthal of right-wingers. Just something I got hooked on 40 years ago. Never a better time for it. I am currently in Jesse Livermore's "Get right and sit tight" mode, long on the gold share ETF "GDX" and on gold itself. Convinced that we are in a secular deflation that will see the broad market retest March lows and gold go to new all-time highs as central banks continue to print money in a failing attempt to reflate. Senior gold producers operating in the best of worlds -- central banks supporting the gold price at high levels while the cost-of mining, largely energy costs, remain low. Gold is the vehicle here, trading as an alternative currency, not silver, which tends to trade as a commodity in deflationary times.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Confidence from within the company that they will attract top innovators.



Amazon is not the evil company many make it out to be. If you only listen to the media then sure the warehouses are hell on earth. But I know lots and lots of people who work in them full-time and they say people enjoy working there. They were one of the first major corporations to bump their minimum wage to $15 and they will go to $16-17 if $15 becomes the norm. They have a real plan in place to run solely on renewable energy by 2030 and will become carbon neutral by 2040. They’re investing the entire $4 billion of their Q1 profit into helping fight the virus and keep their employees safe. They are far from perfect, as is almost every company but they’re not as evil as the mainstream media wants you to believe.

People don’t get it. Amazon isn‘t a great stock because of online sales. It’s because of AWS, streaming and the data they collect.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Been investing for just under 10 years and I've learned a bunch along the way by making mistakes. Could probably write a whole book on the mistakes I made (either positions gone wrong or stocks I never pulled the trigger on). I never trade stocks (technical driven positions) but invest in stocks for the long-term share appreciation.

The past 3-4 years I've really refined my strategy to focus on industry leaders or up-and-coming disrupters. I focus mostly on tech, specifically B2B tech and financial technology.

My biggest position by far is Square (SQ) which I bulked up on during March. I also own Salesforce (CRM), PayPal (PYPL), Mitek (MITK), Health Equity (HQY), Qualys (QYLS) and Workhorse (WKHS).

My average annual return the past 5 years has been almost 18% and over the past 3 years my average annual return has been 27%.

Here are two of the biggest mistakes people make when investing (including things that I constantly battle with):

1) Buying something without fully understanding the business and their industry. Twitter and message board tips shouldn't drive an investment strategy.

2) Hesitating to buy a stock you've done your research because "experts" say its a bad investment or the stock price is down. If you need external validation (either experts saying buy or rising share prices) you've missed your opportunity to make good money, most likely.

#1 is the key for me. I’m mostly in tech, which is my industry for the last 24 years and where I understand the business better. Aside from that I stick to dividend stocks with decent yields, high floors and some upside. AT&T for example. Oil stocks when down provide a dividend stock buying opportunity as well.

 

[huskyrob1]

You must be thinking of a different company because Netflix never had that price action and never hit 700.

Oh yes it did, you are definitely incorrect sir. You have to figure in the splits, when researching price action from years back.

Here you go know-it-all.......

Netflix splits stock 7 for 1

With the long-anticipated move, the soaring stock will start trading at its post-split price next month.

www.google.com

 

[tentoes4rings]

Most of mine are for the long run. Trying to swing on the short term is brutally hard.

I thought I was pretty good at trading back in 2000-01. After being out 20 years, I chose a great time to get back in at the lows but with the ever changing landscape and Covid, this has been a historically difficult time to trade. I held part of Amazon position and FIVN through their earnings recently, only to see them get hammered the next day. What I’m learning is on true trading, selling right before earnings are released and cashing out by 4 PM are sound strategies. There are too many after hours economic updates from Europe, Asia, and pre market job reports that can really affect the open the following day. Couple that with drug and vaccine updates, as well as state reopenings and you’ve got a recipe for huge volatility. As we get further into this thread, I’d love to start sharing the tools we’re using. I personally use Schwab’s trading platform and stockcharts.com but would love some better deals, particularly with regard to news affecting each stock.

 

[the Q]

I thought I was pretty good at trading back in 2000-01. After being out 20 years, I chose a great time to get back in at the lows but with the ever changing landscape and Covid, this has been a historically difficult time to trade. I held part of Amazon position and FIVN through their earnings recently, only to see them get hammered the next day. What I’m learning is on true trading, selling right before earnings are released and cashing out by 4 PM are sound strategies. There are too many after hours economic updates from Europe, Asia, and pre market job reports that can really affect the open the following day. Couple that with drug and vaccine updates, as well as state reopenings and you’ve got a recipe for huge volatility. As we get further into this thread, I’d love to start sharing the tools we’re using. I personally use Schwab’s trading platform and stockcharts.com but would love some better deals, particularly with regard to news affecting each stock.

I’m trying to get full lots of 9-12 dividend stocks that will return me a full share per quarter for the next 30-35 years lol