OT: Stock trading | Page 183 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

Another bloodbath. At least it's Friday. I feel like Uncle Vernon. It's best if the markets are just closed.

serious days of the week GIF
 
UConnSwag11 said:
bear market. Won’t be surprised if it drops further.
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Not sure about a bear market, too early to tell, but definitely we're for a big correction. If the market gives back 10 to 15 percent of last years gains, and the Fed can tame inflation, companies have healthy balance sheets to weather the coming storn.

It's a strange environment. If the yield curve inverts, it's another story.
 
B1GEast said:
Not sure about a bear market, too early to tell, but definitely we're for a big correction. If the market gives back 10 to 15 percent of last years gains, and the Fed can tame inflation, companies have healthy balance sheets to weather the coming storn.

It's a strange environment. If the yield curve inverts, it's another story.
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I don’t think it’s a bear market either, there are just too many issues at the moment between inflation and Russia. Prior to the red hot CPI number, the market looked ready to run again, buoyed by strong overall earnings. Either we just hold and close our eyes for a while or take advantage of all the volatility and make a lot trading. I know there are a lot of great buys down here, but having the remaining capital to pounce is the challenge.
 
Dogdeacon said:
SENS - anyone else still in this? Dropped 27% after GETTING FDA approval?
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I'm in it, got stung.......it's probably been a "buy the rumor, sell the news" stock all along and today's negative Russia/Ukraine news didn't help any I'm sure.
 
tentoes4rings said:
I don’t think it’s a bear market either, there are just too many issues at the moment between inflation and Russia. Prior to the red hot CPI number, the market looked ready to run again, buoyed by strong overall earnings. Either we just hold and close our eyes for a while or take advantage of all the volatility and make a lot trading. I know there are a lot of great buys down here, but having the remaining capital to pounce is the challenge.
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There are a lot of uncertainties, especially if the Fed doesn't act appropriately, like shrinking its balance sheet and not moving fast enough on rate hikes. There indeed some positives that you mention, I'll add sttong recent employment numbers.

If the Fed makes the right moves, the tightening might not be that bad by the end of the year.

We could be wrong and headed off a cliff. So much uncertainty is crazy, the huge daily swings are brutal for casual investors.
 
B1GEast said:
There are a lot of uncertainties, especially if the Fed doesn't act appropriately, like shrinking its balance sheet and not moving fast enough on rate hikes. There indeed some positives that you mention, I'll add sttong recent employment numbers.

If the Fed makes the right moves, the tightening might not be that bad by the end of the year.

We could be wrong and headed off a cliff. So much uncertainty is crazy, the huge daily swings are brutal for casual investors.
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Right, very dangerous for the casual guys, especially those with high margin. For some of us who went through The Dot Com selloff, this isn’t easy to handle but softens the blow a bit. This time around though I think fundamentals are a lot stronger, optimistic we’ll be on solid ground by early Summer at the latest.
 
Dogdeacon said:
SENS - anyone else still in this? Dropped 27% after GETTING FDA approval?
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Eventually, SENS finished -33% Friday contrary to approval expectations for the company's 6 month monitor. Inconveniently, the CEO's reasonable (conservative?) 2Q profit forecasts spooked some institutional and retail investors alike. However, 2Q profits are primarily or entirely dependent on SENS' pre-existing/ prior-approved 90-day monitor.

3Q-4Q, the newly US FDA approved longer-term monitor (180 days) is projected to markedly increase SENS' profit upside. Doubled up Friday when SENS hit 30% down. When/if it drops more, I plan to add more based on perceived mid- and LT upside potential.
 
Little bounce back today. I spent some time moving some Crypto to my Trezor One. When I bought the thing it didn't support much, but they have upgraded the software suite to handle more coins/tokens. Anybody have any suggestions on whether it is worth an upgrade?

Unfortunately, Coinbase is disconnected from my bank and I'm re-authorizing, which is ridiculously slow. I signed up at Binnance US hoping to get OCEAN and it isn't there (Binnance outside the US may have it). Any suggestions on lower cost exchanges?
 
I buy my OCEAN from Kraken. I've been adding on dips. Great long-term potential.
 
UConnSwag11 said:
bear market. Won’t be surprised if it drops further.
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Well where the hell do you put your money than? I’m not holding cash or bonds every week my food and energy costs are going up. Commodities? Crypto? Equities is a relatively safe play right now imo.
 
SBSW- Sibanye gold, diversified miner, gold, nickel, platinum group metals, uranium and a nice close to 10% dividend!
 
UCPharma11 said:
SBSW- Sibanye gold, diversified miner, gold, nickel, platinum group metals, uranium and a nice close to 10% dividend!
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One of my financial newsletters mentioned them a while back. Seems like a good stock to add in a different sector

But dear lord do I hate k-1s
 
the Q said:
One of my financial newsletters mentioned them a while back. Seems like a good stock to add in a different sector.
But dear lord do I hate k-1s
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In addition to PITA tax-reporting, SBSW has the added risks of a South African-domiciled corporation, RSA miners/political risks, AND its' NAV oft spikes up/down markedly more than the values of its underlying precious metals and industrial metals. Doesn't rule out the possibility, just facts to reasonably consider.
 
UcannUconn said:
Well where the hell do you put your money than? I’m not holding cash or bonds every week my food and energy costs are going up. Commodities? Crypto? Equities is a relatively safe play right now imo.
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@UcannUconn Commingling regular budget (food, energy, etc) vs MT/LT investment allocations? Noting inflation-projections rising a year+ ago and inflation baked-in to varying degrees by institutional managers, a bigger challenge reacting now. Tossing out some considerations ...

Crypto: Which one? Type? Pending US govt policy announcements? LINK appears to dip to $14-15, then rise again. Repeat cycle, T. B. D. DAPP for LT?

Commodities: Which type? Big differences, e.g., potentially less precious metal upside vs industrial metals, e.g., alt/EV energy copper, lithium, etc dependencies, infrastructure requirements (steel), etc. Today, added some FCX and CLF and took bit of gold miner/gold ETF profits just now. Not selling MP lithium miner/soon processor. If Russia invades Ukraine for the 3rd time since 2013, may take some ridiculous oil profits on LT shares bought year+ ago.

Ag/Fertilizers? Food's not going out of style. Growing S & E Asian middle class populations with changing diets depend on imports, increased fertilizer use, and ag tech/equipment. Russia once again invading Europe's largest country (area solely in Europe) and bread basket? ADM? MOS? CAT? DE?

Fixed Income: Floating Rate Bond ETFs (FLOT?) and Senior Bank Loan ETFs may have already baked in some inflation, but 5, 6, 7, more Fed increases? When Russia invade Ukraine again, will the Fed delay or lower projected rate increases? Who knows. Emerging Market bond ETFs hit hard YTD & last 12 months: 1 year from now mayyyyyy look good as many EM Central Banks already increased rates (Not including mainland China now lowering rates now).

Equities: Plenty of cash-rich companies exist, sound dividend payers (BNS & other Canadian banks, BLX, etc), hard hit quality new energy, tech, biotech, and also US small cap, even if the US enters a recession DCAing makes sense for LT investors. Same same with JP and Europe small cap. XITK, down like ARKK YTD minus negative Cathie Wood lead ball.

Just spitting out Thursday thoughts ...
 
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Just kind of watching all this. I have trimmed whatever marginal stuff I had. What's left are things I feel good about long term. I could sell, and buy back, but there's so much risk in trying to time that. Sell Apple and buy it back cheaper? Sure, if I know when to sell and buy. Instead I'll just hold it.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Just kind of watching all this. I have trimmed whatever marginal stuff I had. What's left are things I feel good about long term. I could sell, and buy back, but there's so much risk in trying to time that. Sell Apple and buy it back cheaper? Sure, if I know when to sell and buy. Instead I'll just hold it.
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If you have a long term horizon then that's always the answer. Invest in good companies and deal with the dips and spikes of the market.
 
HooperScooper said:
If you have a long term horizon then that's always the answer. Invest in good companies and deal with the dips and spikes of the market.
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^ This, yet taking some massive LT profits can make some sense over time, particularly when the most reactionary retail buyers jump into what some view as the newest most important asset(s). For example, belated recent commodity buyers vs diversifying adds when inflationary pressures were fairly apparent a year+ ago.

Vice versa, recently added to some harder hit IT, finls, and green tech LT holds, COIN, DAPP, even SENS. A la Wayne Gretzky, skating where I believe/expect the puck will be a year+ from now.
 
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