Our APR situation and UNC's situation are distinguishable and I believe UNC will wind up with a penalty that has limited to no impact on them. Roy is right. The biggest damage has been the impact on recruiting due to anticipation of penalties.
UConn gave the NCAA a free punch. There was a rule on the books with a stated penalty. I can't understand how the rule was changed to impact us retroactively, but it was. All the NCAA had to do was show that we didn't hit a metric and the rest was set in writing.
In the UNC situation, like Penn State, Syracuse, Miami, USC, etc., the NCAA has to pursue enforcement based upon analysis, interpretation, and proof. They are going to want to find a penalty that UNC is ok accepting so that they don't have to go through the process of enforcing their decision.
I think the NCAA and UNC realize that something has to be done. They'll work with eachother to figure out what UNC can accept vs. what public opinion will necessitate. I look for a loss of a couple scholarships for a couple years and a one year post season ban that will allow them their shot at a championship.