OT: NBA SemiFinals

[Dogdeacon]

Even without him, I still like their chances.

If its a Cavs - Warriors finals with everyone currently as healthy as they are (so Irving is playing, but not 100%), I'd guess the Warriors would be prohibitive favorites to win in 5-ish games. Would you honestly take the Cavs straight up?
Cavs v. Houston would be much more competitive I think, but I'd still take the West.
Vegas odd of NBA championship
Warriors - 1/4
Cavs - 11/4
Houston - 25/1
Hawks - 30/1

 

[Matrim55]

Honestly don't think the Dubs are going to lose another game.

 

[Tommyboy]

Did harden brainfart there? Why not attack harder on the initial runout?

 

[superjohn]

Honestly don't think the Dubs are going to lose another game.

Seriously? Rockets have been right there both games and Cavs are playing great.

 

[TasteofUConn]

Honestly don't think the Dubs are going to lose another game.

They won last night by a point and could have easily lost after blowing a 15 point lead. At home. They're not only not unbeatable - they look like they're ripe for being beaten.

 

[traitor71]

They won last night by a point and could have easily lost after blowing a 15 point lead. At home. They're not only not unbeatable - they look like they're ripe for being beaten.

Or it could just be that Houston is a pretty good team that has given everything they have and Golden State still won. These teams are so much better than what is in the East that it isn't even funny. Cleveland has the best player, but he is going to have to go crazy every game to win the finals.

 

[TasteofUConn]

Or it could just be that Houston is a pretty good team that has given everything they have and Golden State still won. These teams are so much better than what is in the East that it isn't even funny. Cleveland has the best player, but he is going to have to go crazy every game to win the finals.

GS was giving it everything they had and they won by a point. At home. On a turnover.
Surely you don't believe that a one point win at home means that they are unbeatable? That would be very odd. What the win last night did was show that that GS is vulnerable. 2 games in Houston will give us more info.
"So much better than what is in the East." We'll know in a few weeks.

 

[Dogdeacon]

They won last night by a point and could have easily lost after blowing a 15 point lead. At home. They're not only not unbeatable - they look like they're ripe for being beaten.

By whom though? Houston just doesn't commit to defense for an entire game and they have Josh Smith who vacillates between a dumpster fire & 2nd coming of Sheed. Spurs likely would have knocked off the Warriors and the Clippers v Warriors would have been a much better series due to the animosity.

 

[traitor71]

The Spurs weren't going to knock GS off. They just didn't quite have it this year. If they did, they never would have lost their regular season finale and ended up with an unfavorable playoff seed. As for the Clippers, I don't know how they could have played GS any better than Houston has. That's what I think anyway.

 

[Kitaman]

All I know is that Curry is not disappearing, which is scary for opponents. Like Lebron with him on your team opponents have to play extremely well with few mistakes (hence Harden's turnover) to beat them. Houston is a very good team and I expect them to bounce back at home.

As for Atlanta/Cavs tonight's game will be telling. I don't think the Hawks can win one in Cleveland which would be thier death sentence. However they like Houston field a very good team (group) and can make noise. I just don't see the Hawks having that 'go to' guy in crunch time.

 

[Matrim55]

They won last night by a point and could have easily lost after blowing a 15 point lead. At home. They're not only not unbeatable - they look like they're ripe for being beaten.

They played a C- game, and still beat a 58-win team.

Here's where Golden State will end up historically:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/

 

[TasteofUConn]

They played a C- game

What? How on earth do you come to that conclusion.?

 

[Matrim55]

What? How on earth do you come to that conclusion.?

Because I watched them about 65 times this year. They didn't move the ball as well as they could have, weren't able to figure out Houston's trapping scheme early (credit to McHale for that), and neither Klay nor Dray hit the open looks they usually nail.

I don't have access to SportVu stats, but I'd wager the Dubs undershot their "total passes per game" count by about 15%. Again: credit in part goes to McHale & the Rockets for that. He's a very good coach and they're a borderline great team.

But I'm pretty confident the Dubs will come out on Sunday, after having watched tape, and both find and create more gaps to exploit.

 

[TasteofUConn]

Because I watched them about 65 times this year.

Just so you know, you sound like Izzo after we beat them in 14 - "We just didn't play out best game."
GS has by no means looked impressive against Houston. Game 1 was close, and Game 2 was a nailbiter.
I'll be a lot more convinced of the Legend of the GSW if they can win 1 in Houston, and I'll be really impressed if they can win 2.
If they lose 2, they're overrated.

 

[James]

i would be weary of fivethirtyeight , same site that claims wiggins is the worst ROY ever and is nothing more than a poor mans james posey.

GSW is so explosive they go on these insane runs that just knock you out... however they haven't really won in convincing fashion verse a wildly hobbled houston club. D12 was at like >50% health wise, not to mention the rockets A. have a point guard rotation of jason terry, Prigioni, and nick johnson (!), B. rely heavily on clint capella and corey brewer. in the WCF no less ... I definitely have houston stealing a game at home. Warriors in 6?

 

[dogfan96]

If its a Cavs - Warriors finals with everyone currently as healthy as they are (so Irving is playing, but not 100%), I'd guess the Warriors would be prohibitive favorites to win in 5-ish games. Would you honestly take the Cavs straight up?
Cavs v. Houston would be much more competitive I think, but I'd still take the West.
Vegas odd of NBA championship
Warriors - 1/4
Cavs - 11/4
Houston - 25/1
Hawks - 30/1

I'm wary of teams that take a lot of contested threes.. Curry just happens to be unbelievable.. him and Klay hit a mini-slump for 2 games and they're in big trouble. Cleveland has the ultimate trump card in LeBron. He can create a high percentage shot for himself or a teammate at any crucial time of the game. Your defense has to adjust to him. If you have LeBron, good size (they do.. Mozgov is better than people think and Thompson is an absolute maniac on the boards) and 2 good shooters (between Kyrie, JR, and James Jones) they're difficult to guard. Then Shumpert has a good midrange game, he's better off the bounce than people think, and he's as tough as they come on the defensive end. When Kevin Love is healthy, they're impossible to guard. If Kyrie was healthy, I'd say they wouldn't lose again. Chris Webber made a great point last night. Kyrie being hurt certainly doesn't help them, but it doesn't kill them bc he's still a great 3-pt shooter so you can still spot him up and use him to space the floor. You can't leave him open. They're going to beat ATL in 6 games though. And likewise with the Warriors. LeBron doesn't have to have his jumper going and he doesn't have to shoot a great % to dominate a game. He was subpar in the Chicago series and he still totally dictated the games. He makes everybody on the team a little better than they actually are.
Like a few people said, Houston was right there the first 2 games (and I don't really think much of the Rockets honestly.. but man can Harden put the ball in the hole), they just didn't get it done when they had the chance.

 

[traitor71]

I can't believe what seems to be the utter lack of respect for a Houston team that finished second in the Western conference. I can only conclude it is because people look at the names, not at what the players actually do on the court. To have the season they had while fighting the injuries that they had to deal with all season is pretty amazing. If they are healthy next year, they are a 60 win team and a legit title contender. I guess they are technically a contender now, but having to go through Golden State just to win your conference sort of negates that.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Both true folks undervaluing Houston's regular season and over penalizing Cavaliers for mediocrity before they assimilated current players.

But then again I watched all of Cavs-Celts and was unimpressed. So I'm still in trap of thinking ATL stinks vs Giving Cleveland their due. Cleveland is so good that Atlanta is quitting.

 

[Matrim55]

Like a few people said, Houston was right there the first 2 games (and I don't really think much of the Rockets honestly.. but man can Harden put the ball in the hole), they just didn't get it done when they had the chance.

Harden's not going to keep shooting 60% on long 2s (he's 14-for-23 on those shots through 2 games) when he hit 35% of those shots during the season. He will regress to the mean, and when that happens, Houston have no chance.

 

[Scoe]

Shaq is right Lebron is a lot like Magic more then MJ, he is so under control and more determined then ever, I do think MJ cared more about putting up stats then Lebron does. Cavs might be able to rest up Kyrie for the Finals the way this series is going.

 

[champs99and04]

Cleveland just thumped a team twice that had previously been 35-6 in their gym. I'm done taking them lightly.

 

[dogfan96]

Harden's not going to keep shooting 60% on long 2s (he's 14-for-23 on those shots through 2 games) when he hit 35% of those shots during the season. He will regress to the mean, and when that happens, Houston have no chance.

Over a small sample size (ie 5 games), there's a chance he might not. Great players are great for a reason. And even if he does cool off, he can get into the paint virtually at will and create cheap points via FTs and set-ups for dunks/layups for his teammates.

 

[dogfan96]

Or it could just be that Houston is a pretty good team that has given everything they have and Golden State still won. These teams are so much better than what is in the East that it isn't even funny. Cleveland has the best player, but he is going to have to go crazy every game to win the finals.

Cleveland has size, good defenders, and the best player on the floor. They always have an above average chance in any game, home or away. Most players' effectiveness is really closely tied to how well they shoot the ball but LeBron is the rare player where that's not true. Even when's not shooting well he's creating high percentage shots for his teammates. And he's going to get his just bc he's that good.

 

[traitor71]

Shaq is right Lebron is a lot like Magic more then MJ, he is so under control and more determined then ever, I do think MJ cared more about putting up stats then Lebron does. Cavs might be able to rest up Kyrie for the Finals the way this series is going.

I'm amazed that some people are only now just saying this. Maybe people are finally done with expecting James to play like Jordan did and just accept the fact that the guy is damn good at moving the ball and likes to do it a lot.

 

[tzznandrew]

Cleveland just thumped a team twice that had previously been 35-6 in their gym. I'm done taking them lightly.

Well, they did it to a team missing a key player from their second unit (Sefolosha) and with a key injury in their first (Carroll). The Hawks don't have a superstar, and so their team is all about balance...balance which they've lost. They've got no one healthy to defend LeBron, their second unit can't make much headway, and the Cavs' defense can key in the few healthy cogs. Now, the Cavs are missing Love and Irving is hurt, so the wins are impressive in their own way, but they're beating JV teams.

This feels like last year all over again. LeBron's team fights its way through a terrible conference, and people think the Spurs-Heat is a toss-up...instead, Spurs murdered them. With a gimpy Irving and without Love, this Cavs team gets beat by either Houston or Golden State. Golden State, in particular, will rip them a new one if they meet and Irving is still hurt: Draymond Green can at least bother LeBron, there's no one to hide Irving on, and who do you put LeBron on?

I'm very impressed with LeBron willing this team to the finals. Five Finals in a row is impressive, even out of the East. But it will likely hurt his legacy (in the weird ways in which people talk about this) because he's going to be 2-4 in the Finals after this year.