OT: NBA SemiFinals

[BigErnMcCracken]

No more Korver. Hawks are done.

 

[tzznandrew]

I'd expect this argument from a Syracuse fan like you.

Great response. Ignore the logic, call me a Syracuse fan. More or less a Reductio ad Hitlerum around here from the guy who just showed up.

Good job.

 

[Matrim55]

When the hell did they start tracking that stat?

I wouldn't mind that job!

Teams track everything these days, thanks to the SportVu system. We're also translating a lot of it to soccer, though that's a tougher ask because of more variables and fewer discrete data points.

Zach Lowe weaves a ton of this stuff into his NBA coverage, and makes similar points about Harden: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/e...or-this-weekend-in-the-nba-conference-finals/

One of the "if only..." aspects of the analytics movement is that Ray would be even more valuable in this day and age than he was 10-15 years ago. Teams understand spacing better than ever before, and a sniper of a SG who can also handle & penetrate is worth his weight in gold (i.e., Harden). Ray was snakebitten in his career from playing on s***tily constructed teams until the 2008 Celtics, but he was also born 15 years too soon.

The fact that he's a top 5 SG of all time despite all of that just underlines his greatness.

 

[Matrim55]

I'd expect this argument from a Syracuse fan like you.

You're going to end up on a lot of ignore lists.

 

[TasteofUConn]

Great response. Ignore the logic, call me a Syracuse fan. More or less a Reductio ad Hitlerum . . .

Dude - I was just kidding with the Syracuse thing - sorry! Maybe that should be on the short list of things that should not be said here, when calling somebody an Orange fan is tantamount to calling him Hilter! Sorry!
But really, Hitler's armies were better than the Russian army - he just couldn't win the big one. Kinda what you're sayin'. I'm just sayin'.

 

[tzznandrew]

I can definitely see some parallels between a potential Cavs-Warriors match-up this season - in which you're pairing a historically dominant team from a historically dominant conference with an injury-riddled team in a mostly hapless, injury-riddled conference - but I think you might be under-selling the Hawks a bit. Yeah, their win totals were front-loaded, but they still won 60 games, and it's always a little bit dangerous to highlight one part of the schedule and assign more meaning to it than others; much of this stuff is simply random, and the rate at which the Hawks were winning at the beginning of the season was unsustainable.

Even with the injuries, Atlanta's dynamite starting five - which sent four players to the all-star game and included another potential rising star on the wing - was intact. Yes, Carroll went down in game one, but the Cavs were in control of the game at that point, and he still played in game two, albeit at less than 100%.

As you stated yourself, the Cavs finished the season 34-12 with Smith, Shumpert, and a re-energized LeBron. I think many of us - myself included - under-estimated just how transformative that trade was. In Shumpert and Smith, James is now flanked by a pair of mobile, two-way wings of the like he has never played with in his career. Thompson and Mozgov have been lunch pail guys on the inside, and against a team like Golden State, Cleveland will undoubtedly have the luxury of playing James the bulk of his minutes at the four without forcing him to guard a low-post grunt on the other end.

By no stretch am I saying a potential Warriors-Cavs final is a draw. Hell, I picked the Cavs to lose to Chicago (and they may have had Gasol not gone down). Cleveland just doesn't have the look right now of a team that's going to play the Washington Generals role to anybody.

What's more impressive: what the Warriors are doing to the Rockets, or what the Cavs are doing to the Hawks?

Given how all the teams have played leading up to it and who is playing, the Warriors are far more impressive. The Rockets would have smothered these Hawks in their cradle. Maybe not January Hawks, but those guys have been gone for a while. I love your posts, but I think you're the one highlighting one part of the season over another: these Hawks weren't impressive for 2/3 of the season, and in the playoffs they are 8-6...likely to be 8-8. That January run was a fluke.

Yet, to be clear, LeBron getting to the Finals without Love, and with a gimpy Irving, is amazing, and it shows how good he is on the one hand; but on the other hand, no one can seriously believe he could do this out of the West. Put him in the Rocket's slot (which is the same position the Cavs got in the East) and he would have had to lead them past the Mavs (possible, but they were better than an injured Bulls team), Clippers (wouldn't happen, IMO), and then Warriors (even less likely). Give his team the same record in the West (a gift), and they're on the road the whole playoffs.

They'll get to the Finals this year and get beat. Maybe in 6, but they'll be beat. Next year may be a different story, but until Durant is playing for the Wizards, Rose is healthy (maybe never), the Heat are healthy, and the Celtics have their #1 star (maybe not for a while), the East will but the JV (with 1-2 capable teams) to the West's Varsity.

 

[Matrim55]

The performances we've seen from LeBron, Harden (not tonight) and Curry are just remarkable. I love the Hawks, but we're seeing the ultimate argument/need for a superstar if you're going to compete at the highest level.

BTW, Harden has regressed to the mean. And below.

 

[Matrim55]

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

What's more impressive: what the Warriors are doing to the Rockets, or what the Cavs are doing to the Hawks?

Given how all the teams have played leading up to it and who is playing, the Warriors are far more impressive. The Rockets would have smothered these Hawks in their cradle. Maybe not January Hawks, but those guys have been gone for a while. I love your posts, but I think you're the one highlighting one part of the season over another: these Hawks weren't impressive for 2/3 of the season, and in the playoffs they are 8-6...likely to be 8-8. That January run was a fluke.

Yet, to be clear, LeBron getting to the Finals without Love, and with a gimpy Irving, is amazing, and it shows how good he is on the one hand; but on the other hand, no one can seriously believe he could do this out of the West. Put him in the Rocket's slot (which is the same position the Cavs got in the East) and he would have had to lead them past the Mavs (possible, but they were better than an injured Bulls team), Clippers (wouldn't happen, IMO), and then Warriors (even less likely). Give his team the same record in the West (a gift), and they're on the road the whole playoffs.

They'll get to the Finals this year and get beat. Maybe in 6, but they'll be beat. Next year may be a different story, but until Durant is playing for the Wizards, Rose is healthy (maybe never), the Heat are healthy, and the Celtics have their #1 star (maybe not for a while), the East will but the JV (with 1-2 capable teams) to the West's Varsity.

Lebron is obviously incredible. But the East is so bad. Like incredibly bad. The cavs played the celtics in the first round. A team that has basically been in tank mode for three years. They then played the Bulls who were just as beat up. Noah is done. Gasol missed a few games. Rose got hurt again this year. And in the east finals they play an Atlanta team that lost two games to the nets who are so old and just blew up their team this year. The top seed in the east lost two games to nets. The nets....

The east has been a joke for for years. Since the downfall (got old)/breakup of the Celtics there hasn't been a single legit team in the east. That's like six years. The pacers with Roy hibbert as their second best player were the biggest threat Lebron faced. Lance Stephenson was one of their best players. He goes to the Bobcats and can't even play. The Bulls had a few decent teams but then rose tore his knee three times. So the only two superstars (wall is getting close) in the east who played on even decent teams either tore an acl (rose) or broke their leg in half (George).

In summary. Lebron is incredible. But the east is equally incredibly bad.

 

[superjohn]

You can make a case Curry is playing the point guard position as well or better than anyone has ever played it, amazing player.

 

[champs99and04]

What's more impressive: what the Warriors are doing to the Rockets, or what the Cavs are doing to the Hawks?

Given how all the teams have played leading up to it and who is playing, the Warriors are far more impressive. The Rockets would have smothered these Hawks in their cradle. Maybe not January Hawks, but those guys have been gone for a while. I love your posts, but I think you're the one highlighting one part of the season over another: these Hawks weren't impressive for 2/3 of the season, and in the playoffs they are 8-6...likely to be 8-8. That January run was a fluke.

Yet, to be clear, LeBron getting to the Finals without Love, and with a gimpy Irving, is amazing, and it shows how good he is on the one hand; but on the other hand, no one can seriously believe he could do this out of the West. Put him in the Rocket's slot (which is the same position the Cavs got in the East) and he would have had to lead them past the Mavs (possible, but they were better than an injured Bulls team), Clippers (wouldn't happen, IMO), and then Warriors (even less likely). Give his team the same record in the West (a gift), and they're on the road the whole playoffs.

They'll get to the Finals this year and get beat. Maybe in 6, but they'll be beat. Next year may be a different story, but until Durant is playing for the Wizards, Rose is healthy (maybe never), the Heat are healthy, and the Celtics have their #1 star (maybe not for a while), the East will but the JV (with 1-2 capable teams) to the West's Varsity.

I don't think we really disagree on much here other than me being higher on the Hawks than you, and by extension me maybe being a little bit more than a believer in the Cavs.

I would argue that the way Atlanta played in January is every bit as close who they are as who they were in March and April, at least pre injuries. Everybody played 82 and Atlanta won 60 of them, but if you think they haven't played to that level in a while, I can't disagree.

 

[Matrim55]

I would argue that the way Atlanta played in January is every bit as close who they are as who they were in March and April, at least pre injuries. Everybody played 82 and Atlanta won 60 of them, but if you think they haven't played to that level in a while, I can't disagree.

I just think that Atlanta don't have an "easy" button. Even teams that are notable for their ball movement - the Spurs and Dubs come to mind - have steak-and-potatoes plays that (Curry & Dray pick and roll; Duncan in the high post) that they can go to the well for again and again.

The Hawks play beautiful, brilliant basketball, but they're a machine. And when one part breaks, the whole thing breaks.

 

[Scoe]

I hate to say it but Curry it definitely gonna break Ray's 3 point record assuming he has no major injuries.

 

[Matrim55]

The Dubs are obscenely smart and obscenely good.

 

[tzznandrew]

 

[TasteofUConn]

What Curry is doing in inhuman. If he continues this through the finals, I'd argue that he's had the single greatest shooting season in history, on the planet. Just unreal, and it's gotta be devastatingly demoralizing to defenders when you play great D on him and flicks up a 3 and you're thinking, "no way," and there's not even rim involved.
The Rockets picked a hell of a time to lay an egg.

 

[tzznandrew]

What Curry is doing in inhuman. If he continues this through the finals, I'd argue that he's had the single greatest shooting season in history, on the planet. Just unreal, and it's gotta be devastatingly demoralizing to defenders when you play great D on him and flicks up a 3 and you're thinking, "no way," and there's not even rim involved.
The Rockets picked a hell of a time to lay an egg.

I imagine a fully keyed in LeBron might, might be able to slow him. But the Warriors not only have other options, but also the energy James would expend guarding Curry would probably hinder his offense. It is exhausting to guard Curry when he's playing like this.

And here's the thing, LeBron, for all his brilliance, is having a down postseason! His TS% is 49.6%, below his career 57.2%; PER 23.8, below career 27.4; Free Throw rate is .296, below career .468.

His rebound rate, assist rate, and usage are up, but he needs help. He's so good, that even when he's not playing with healthy teammates he'll take his team to the Finals; but he's also lucky injuries have decimated the Bulls and Hawks, and injuries paired with Randy Wittman have kept the Wizards from reaching their potential.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I imagine a fully keyed in LeBron might, might be able to slow him. But the Warriors not only have other options, but also the energy James would expend guarding Curry would probably hinder his offense. It is exhausting to guard Curry when he's playing like this.

And here's the thing, LeBron, for all his brilliance, is having a down postseason! His TS% is 49.6%, below his career 57.2%; PER 23.8, below career 27.4; Free Throw rate is .296, below career .468.

His rebound rate, assist rate, and usage are up, but he needs help. He's so good, that even when he's not playing with healthy teammates he'll take his team to the Finals; but he's also lucky injuries have decimated the Bulls and Hawks, and injuries paired with Randy Wittman have kept the Wizards from reaching their potential.

Actually LeBron putting up less eye-popping numbers (for him) makes me more convinced of how great he is. He always makes the right play for his team and has elevated a mediocre team to greatness. LeBron leads the league in hockey assists.

 

[tzznandrew]

Actually LeBron putting up less eye-popping numbers (for him) makes me more convinced of how great he is. He always makes the right play for his team and has elevated a mediocre team to greatness. LeBron leads the league in hockey assists.

Totally agree. He's ridiculously good.

 

[superjohn]

Dellavadova is a little punk, can't stand him.

 

[champs99and04]

Horford being ejected for that is ridiculous.

 

[UConn990411]

Yup. NBA refs have had a brutal playoffs.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Horford being ejected for that is ridiculous.

Is it? It certainly seems to meet the Flagrant II criteria.

 

[superjohn]

Is it? It certainly seems to meet the Flagrant II criteria.

My biggest problem is how are the refs not noticing what Dellavadova is doing, the guy is clutching and grabbing all throughout the playoffs and diving into peoples knees. Horford is a gentleman and Taj Gibson has a good reputation around the league, there is a reason they have lost their cool with this reckless idiot, flying into everyone's lower bodies.

 

[champs99and04]

Is it? It certainly seems to meet the Flagrant II criteria.

Maybe by the letter-of-the-law it was a flagrant two - I don't know - but to me the threshold should be relaxed a bit in the playoffs, especially given the incident wasn't especially violent. I just didn't see a whole lot there to merit throwing their best player out of the game and determining the series.