OT- NBA playoffs Lillard

[superjohn]

Jokic can be exposed in certain schemes, but then again so can Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid. Even the very best bigs are vulnerable to teams that run a lot of off-ball action and aren't afraid to fillet them from the midrange.

Which is what has made Jokic's defense this postseason so damn impressive. I thought the Spurs – who are the best midrange team in the league – were going to kill Denver. Instead he's killed them.

People acting surprised at how Jokic is playing, this is how he always plays and he's not the type to be phased by the playoffs. Best center in the league is a 2 player debate between Embiid and Jokic.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Also, they're good shots:



The number of 35-foot 3-point attempts in the NBA has just about doubled in the last two years. Bet we see that trend continue.

IMO, in the long run they're going to have to make 2s worth 3 and 3s worth 4, because as it is now, the 3-pointer is just too overpowered. The game has changed too much.

Lillard took 12 shots from 30+ in this series and made 8 of them. It's a completely different game these days.

 

[Dogdeacon]

A step back 38 footer with a hand in your face historically is not a good shot when it's tied. Go to the hoop to get a higher percentage look. But yeah I'm Paul George.

First of all he didn't step back , he stepped into it or side-stepped. In a vacuum I agree with you about 37 footers (you literally keep moving the goal to make your point). In Dame's hand that isn't a bad shot & me and others have proven it was a high percentage shot. And of course he'd face extra defenders if he drove the lane AND they aren't calling a foul in a tie game for anything short of maiming.
Also Dame shot 48.1% from 3 and 46.1% overall in the series and you are saying driving to the hoop is a better shot?
Your exact quote was " it's amazing if it goes in, but absolutely terrible if it misses."
What is terrible about a miss in that situation? Lillard leads everyone in shots taken at 115 for the playoffs, has 26 3-pointers if 5 games (tied with George & Russ combined!) and averaged 1.43 points per shot. Any shot he took had a favorable chance to win the game. If you are OKC you cannot LET him get any shot off in that situation, but sure blame Lillard continuing to convert 'terrible' shots into points and Ws.
Nope, Damian Lillard's series winner wasn't a bad shot

 

[Purple Stein]

Probably not worth its own thread, so I’ll drop this here. Anybody else see Shabazz close out the Nets/Sixers series last night with a double/double? 11/4/10 in 16 minutes.

 

[Mano]

Probably not worth its own thread, so I’ll drop this here. Anybody else see Shabazz close out the Nets/Sixers series last night with a double/double? 11/4/10 in 16 minutes.

It’s a shame he could only get in once they were getting pasted. Same with his other playoff appearance. The minute Dinwiddie and LeVert got healthy his PT went in the crapper. Too bad.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I would keep a short leash on Malone if I was the Nuggets. I think they are a year away from being the best team in the West. They have a very good core, and if everyone stays healthy, Denver has about a 3-4 year window to get to the NBA Finals and potentially win a title. These windows do not happen very often for teams like Denver, and they have to make this window count.

I am not a fan of Malone. I don't hate him, but I think he is mediocre and I don't think he is capable of winning a title. The problem is that the talent will carry Denver to four straight 50+ win seasons and it will hide Malone's shortcomings.

 

[superjohn]

I would keep a short leash on Malone if I was the Nuggets. I think they are a year away from being the best team in the West. They have a very good core, and if everyone stays healthy, Denver has about a 3-4 year window to get to the NBA Finals and potentially win a title. These windows do not happen very often for teams like Denver, and they have to make this window count.

I am not a fan of Malone. I don't hate him, but I think he is mediocre and I don't think he is capable of winning a title. The problem is that the talent will carry Denver to four straight 50+ win seasons and it will hide Malone's shortcomings.

Why are you not a fan and what are his shortcomings?

The guy has one of the best reps around the league.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Denver should either slightly overpay for Middleton in the offseason (cutting Millsap's PO) or get in on the Davis sweepstakes with their surplus guard inventory. That would put them over the top.

Jokic
Davis
Barton or MPJ (whoever NOP does not want)
Harris
Morris

I really want to see what Sacramento does this offseason. They have some cap space and are considered a front runner for Vucevic. However, how cool would it be for Durant to sign there??? It would be a legacy saver after the GSW move and Sacramento has a damn good young core. Everyone has him signing with the Knicks but I bet he gives the Kings a look. They would have to move Barnes, though...

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I really want to see what Sacramento does this offseason. They have some cap space and are considered a front runner for Vucevic. However, how cool would it be for Durant to sign there??? It would be a legacy saver after the GSW move and Sacramento has a damn good young core. Everyone has him signing with the Knicks but I bet he gives the Kings a look. They would have to move Barnes, though...

The Kings have turned into a pretty fun group but I would be dumbfounded if they're on Durant's radar. General consensus - I thought - seemed to be that moving his company to NY was a dead giveaway as to what he's doing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Denver should either slightly overpay for Middleton in the offseason (cutting Millsap's PO) or get in on the Davis sweepstakes with their surplus guard inventory. That would put them over the top.

Jokic
Davis
Barton or MPJ (whoever NOP does not want)
Harris
Morris

I really want to see what Sacramento does this offseason. They have some cap space and are considered a front runner for Vucevic. However, how cool would it be for Durant to sign there??? It would be a legacy saver after the GSW move and Sacramento has a damn good young core. Everyone has him signing with the Knicks but I bet he gives the Kings a look. They would have to move Barnes, though...

I thought the Millsap contract had a team option for this offseason, not a player option. It will be interesting to see what Denver does with Millsap. He has become the Al Horford of the Nuggets, the veteran forward/glue guy.

Not sure why Middleton would leave Milwaukee as long as Giannis is there. The Bucks will be bringing everyone back but Lopez, who is probably getting a significant raise and a 3-4 year deal in the offseason.

 

[uconnbaseball]

I thought the Millsap contract had a team option for this offseason, not a player option. It will be interesting to see what Denver does with Millsap. He has become the Al Horford of the Nuggets, the veteran forward/glue guy.

Not sure why Middleton would leave Milwaukee as long as Giannis is there. The Bucks will be bringing everyone back but Lopez, who is probably getting a significant raise and a 3-4 year deal in the offseason.

My bad, you are correct on Millsap.

IIRC the Bucks need to pay Brogdon, too. It'll be fascinating to see how they approach this offseason.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

First of all he didn't step back , he stepped into it or side-stepped. In a vacuum I agree with you about 37 footers (you literally keep moving the goal to make your point). In Dame's hand that isn't a bad shot & me and others have proven it was a high percentage shot. And of course he'd face extra defenders if he drove the lane AND they aren't calling a foul in a tie game for anything short of maiming.
Also Dame shot 48.1% from 3 and 46.1% overall in the series and you are saying driving to the hoop is a better shot?
Your exact quote was " it's amazing if it goes in, but absolutely terrible if it misses."
What is terrible about a miss in that situation? Lillard leads everyone in shots taken at 115 for the playoffs, has 26 3-pointers if 5 games (tied with George & Russ combined!) and averaged 1.43 points per shot. Any shot he took had a favorable chance to win the game. If you are OKC you cannot LET him get any shot off in that situation, but sure blame Lillard continuing to convert 'terrible' shots into points and Ws.
Nope, Damian Lillard's series winner wasn't a bad shot

It was a contested pull up jumper against a taller defender from 38 feet. It was a bad shot, and the worst kind of hero ball because he dribbled the clock out before doing it. I get that NBA players can do things mere mortals can't do, but that doesn't make it a good shot.

 

[Samoo]

Jokic has played very good defense on Aldridge and Poetl all series, so that is totally wrong.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

It was a contested pull up jumper against a taller defender from 38 feet. It was a bad shot, and the worst kind of hero ball because he dribbled the clock out before doing it. I get that NBA players can do things mere mortals can't do, but that doesn't make it a good shot.

If he makes them routinely - and he had made them at a nearly 70% rate during the series - why, other than increasingly outmoded conventional wisdom - is it a bad shot?

 

[Matrim55]

View attachment 42618

Denver's defense has given up only 102 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor over five games, a tick below Milwaukee's league-best season-long figure, per NBA.com. He susses out what San Antonio wants to do early, and lumbers his way into position. He has 15 deflections, sixth most overall.

Lowe's winners and losers: Russ, Dame, unsung heroes and the Warriors

Zach Lowe runs through the players and teams that have mattered most in Round 1.

www.espn.com

 

[Samoo]

If he makes them routinely - and he had made them at a nearly 70% rate during the series - why, other than increasingly outmoded conventional wisdom - is it a bad shot?

Added context, Lillard and Terry Stotts both voiced concerns that the refs would swallow their whistles if he went inside, given it was a tie game and would go into overtime if Lillard was fouled and they did. There was also the fact that both George and Westbrook had five fouls, and the Blazers felt they had the momentum and would have a good chance in overtime. All told nobody in the Portland organization sees it as a bad shot.

That, and hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Samoo]

Denver's defense has given up only 102 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor over five games, a tick below Milwaukee's league-best season-long figure, per NBA.com. He susses out what San Antonio wants to do early, and lumbers his way into position. He has 15 deflections, sixth most overall.

Lowe's winners and losers: Russ, Dame, unsung heroes and the Warriors

Zach Lowe runs through the players and teams that have mattered most in Round 1.

www.espn.com

To a certain extent, I'm trolling the OP a bit based on the comment that Lillard was having a "nice" playoff run. Jokic is probably the second best player in the playoffs this year and his gaudy stats are probably historic in some fashion.

That said, Lillard is actually leading the playoffs in deflections, third in steals at 2.4/game, second in drawn charges (as good as a steal), and is averaging more blocks than Jokic. If Jokic is playing great defensive ball, Lillard is having an amazing defensive playoffs thus far.

 

[superjohn]

Jokic had 43, 12, and 9 tonight and they lost by 17.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If he makes them routinely - and he had made them at a nearly 70% rate during the series - why, other than increasingly outmoded conventional wisdom - is it a bad shot?

If 38 foot shots are such good ideas, why doesn't he take 10 a game? Why doesn't everyone do them? 12 shots is not statistically significant, and those were all shots from 30+, not 38 feet. And we aren't even getting into the fact that an NBA all-star with a 6 inch height advantage (probably 8-9 inch when you factor in wingspan) was defending Lillard.

Conventional wisdom was to give the ball to the team's best player and let him do whatever he wanted. That is as archaic an approach to basketball as there is. Hero ball is not cutting edge, it has been around forever, and if it worked, Carmelo Anthony would still be playing in the NBA. With advanced statistics, we have learned that hero ball fails much more often than it succeeds.

It was a bad shot. Don't go looking for justifications for hero ball.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Why are you not a fan and what are his shortcomings?

The guy has one of the best reps around the league.

Spurs 120-103 Nuggets (Apr 25, 2019) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets NBA game from April 25, 2019 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

Malone has to be able to put away an inferior Spurs team with the talent he has. He was a 19 point comeback in game 3 from being knocked out tonight.

Malone never made the playoffs before this season, and has never had a team overachieve. I don't think he is terrible, but I don't think he is the caliber of coach that can win a Championship. We will find out.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

If 38 foot shots are such good ideas, why doesn't he take 10 a game? Why doesn't everyone do them? 12 shots is not statistically significant, and those were all shots from 30+, not 38 feet. And we aren't even getting into the fact that an NBA all-star with a 6 inch height advantage (probably 8-9 inch when you factor in wingspan) was defending Lillard.

Conventional wisdom was to give the ball to the team's best player and let him do whatever he wanted. That is as archaic an approach to basketball as there is. Hero ball is not cutting edge, it has been around forever, and if it worked, Carmelo Anthony would still be playing in the NBA. With advanced statistics, we have learned that hero ball fails much more often than it succeeds.

It was a bad shot. Don't go looking for justifications for hero ball.

This is a wild hill to die on but suit yourself. One would think that if you've kept up on the NBA over the past few years you'd recognize that these shots are becoming more and more commonplace. And if he hits them at +40% over the course of the season that would seem to be a reasonably sufficient sample size. But the world needs contrarians.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Jokic had 43, 12, and 9 tonight and they lost by 17.

It's a crazy series. Absolutely no sense of the outcome from one game to the next.

 

[the Q]

This is a wild hill to die on but suit yourself. One would think that if you've kept up on the NBA over the past few years you'd recognize that these shots are becoming more and more commonplace. And if he hits them at +40% over the course of the season that would seem to be a reasonably sufficient sample size. But the world needs contrarians.

How many shots over the course of a season?

Cause people using the series....that’s a laughably small sample size.

 

[Dogdeacon]

If 38 foot shots are such good ideas, why doesn't he take 10 a game? Why doesn't everyone do them? 12 shots is not statistically significant, and those were all shots from 30+, not 38 feet. And we aren't even getting into the fact that an NBA all-star with a 6 inch height advantage (probably 8-9 inch when you factor in wingspan) was defending Lillard.

Conventional wisdom was to give the ball to the team's best player and let him do whatever he wanted. That is as archaic an approach to basketball as there is. Hero ball is not cutting edge, it has been around forever, and if it worked, Carmelo Anthony would still be playing in the NBA. With advanced statistics, we have learned that hero ball fails much more often than it succeeds.

It was a bad shot. Don't go looking for justifications for hero ball.

Plenty of teams don't get off shots at end of games due to good D or other. So calling any shot with any chance to go in at end of a tie game a bad shot by definition is nonsensical. And we are only arguing with you because it was a good Shot making your rigidness seem insane to anyone that coaches, plays or watches basketball. Yet uttering the mystical phrase 'sample size'* and labeling with cliche of 'hero ball'** plus invoking the evil name of Carmelo*** is a valiant effort.

*Are you a statistician? What sample size have you used so that you KNOW the best end of game play is ____? Please give us your ideal play instead?

** Did you know that a turnover might be bad in a tie game so an iso play is often used minimize downside risk****?

*** Did you know Carmelo won an NCAA title, 2 Olympic golds and will be in the HOF? His mortal sin wasn't hero ball but choosing and thus prioritizing $ over team makeup. Ultimately that doomed him to hero ball purgatory.

**** Fancy statistical terminology, pretty impressive eh?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Plenty of teams don't get off shots at end of games due to good D or other. So calling any shot with any chance to go in at end of a tie game a bad shot by definition is nonsensical. And we are only arguing with you because it was a good Shot making your rigidness seem insane to anyone that coaches, plays or watches basketball. Yet uttering the mystical phrase 'sample size'* and labeling with cliche of 'hero ball'** plus invoking the evil name of Carmelo*** is a valiant effort.

*Are you a statistician? What sample size have you used so that you KNOW the best end of game play is ____? Please give us your ideal play instead?

** Did you know that a turnover might be bad in a tie game so an iso play is often used minimize downside risk****?

*** Did you know Carmelo won an NCAA title, 2 Olympic golds and will be in the HOF? His mortal sin wasn't hero ball but choosing and thus prioritizing $ over team makeup. Ultimately that doomed him to hero ball purgatory.

**** Fancy statistical terminology, pretty impressive eh?

Why do players take any shots other than 38 foot shots if they are such good ideas? It isn't like there will be a lot of defense out there in most cases.