OT: NBA Offseason

[nelsonmuntz]

Andre Iguodala when he's bought out by Memphis in a week

That seems like a weird situation for a buyout. Memphis would have to pay a lot of money to make it worthwhile for Iguodola to accept a buyout, because the Lakers can pay him an MLE at best. On the other hand, Iguodola could have trade value for Memphis once the season starts.

Now that tanking is less productive, I don't see as many teams writing big buyout checks to players. Why not just keep the player if they have to pay them anyway?

 

[Huskyforlife]

The Lakers would be in big trouble if any of their big 3 missed a couple weeks with injury, and that's assuming only one of those 3 has an injury, with Kawhi and AD having a history of missing games, and LeBron being very old for a player needing to carry 1/3 of the load. Depth is very important.

 

[Walker11]

Klay's return announcement is the best.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If they don't get Kawhi, Clippers are still a playoff team, and may be able to cut a deal with the Warriors for Russell.

If they don't get Kawhi, Raptors are the 5th or 6th best team in the East, and will be the first call in January for anyone looking to dump salary.

If they don't get Kawhi, the Lakers are screwed. Kyle O'Quinn just signed. That is where teams are in the free agent pool.

 

[the Q]

Justin Holliday would be a nice get for the lakers for the minimum

 

[djct1999]

If they don't get Kawhi, Clippers are still a playoff team, and may be able to cut a deal with the Warriors for Russell.

If they don't get Kawhi, Raptors are the 5th or 6th best team in the East, and will be the first call in January for anyone looking to dump salary.

If they don't get Kawhi, the Lakers are screwed. Kyle O'Quinn just signed. That is where teams are in the free agent pool.

Russell can’t be traded until dec. 15. Klay comes back in March. If anything he gets traded next offseason right before free agency. I think the two teams that don’t get him are screwed.

 

[the Q]

Jordan Bell to minny for 1.6m

That’s a really nice upside play. If bell can regain his rookie form that’s absolute robbery

That’s the kind of move the Celtics needed to swing for since their front court looks pretty abysmal right now

 

[navery12]

That seems like a weird situation for a buyout. Memphis would have to pay a lot of money to make it worthwhile for Iguodola to accept a buyout, because the Lakers can pay him an MLE at best. On the other hand, Iguodola could have trade value for Memphis once the season starts.

Now that tanking is less productive, I don't see as many teams writing big buyout checks to players. Why not just keep the player if they have to pay them anyway?

There's certainly a case where they keep him, but I doubt it happens. Iguodala would accept a buyout regardless. He goes and signs for the minimum with LAL and still gets paid the exact same with the rest coming from MEM

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There's certainly a case where they keep him, but I doubt it happens. Iguodala would accept a buyout regardless. He goes and signs for the minimum with LAL and still gets paid the exact same with the rest coming from MEM

Why would Memphis do that when they could trade him later in the year and get something back?

You used to see the big buyouts like Carmelo's when tanking was a thing. But it isn't anymore.

Why would Memphis spend $17 million to buy out Iguodola's contract? Why would Iguodala give up $17 million to make the NBA minimum somewhere else? Either Memphis pays a boatload for someone that never plays a minute for them, or Iguodala gives up millions for an NBA minimum contract when he is 35 years old. Meeting in the middle is a useless compromise for both sides.

I guess a buyout is possible, but I don't know why either side would do it.

 

[Scoe]

Iguodala to Lakers

 

[bazz&boujee]

if kawhi goes to clippers that list after boogie is basically lakers roster

 

[husky429]

He’s an old 34/35 too. Lots of miles on him skipping college and making deep post season runs most years. Looks to be in phenomenal shape for his age though.

I was thinking he's a relatively young 35. The groin strain this year was probably his worst injury ever. Or maybe his back when he was with the heat.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I was thinking he's a relatively young 35. The groin strain this year was probably his worst injury ever. Or maybe his back when he was with the heat.

LeBron has played more minutes at every age from 30 on than anyone in NBA history.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I was thinking he's a relatively young 35. The groin strain this year was probably his worst injury ever. Or maybe his back when he was with the heat.

Nah. He came into the league from HS and started day one. Those guys have way more miles than guys who went to college. He’s an amazing athlete in great condition, but he’s going to start breaking down.

 

[the Q]

They have ~$18 million before the hard cap to fill out 9 roster slots.

I believe that can be increased if they waive Livingston.

They may get under the tax line so when they explode back over it to pay green it’s not a repeater tax

 

[husky429]

Nah. He came into the league from HS and started day one. Those guys have way more miles than guys who went to college. He’s an amazing athlete in great condition, but he’s going to start breaking down.

I'm curious what the evidence is that just playing more (relatively injury free) incurs decreased performance over time. It seems to make sense, obviously. Older = worse. More stress on the knees etc. But at what age in basketball compared to say, distance running? Just because it makes sense doesn't make it true. Especially for a freak like Lebron.

There really aren't many cases of high level players being basically injury free for 15+ year like lebron. At least that I can think of. Maybe Karl Malone???

I know some people in sports performance to ask.

 

[the Q]

I'm curious what the evidence is that just playing more (relatively injury free) incurs decreased performance over time. It seems to make sense, obviously. Older = worse. More stress on the knees etc. But at what age in basketball compared to say, distance running? Just because it makes sense doesn't make it true. Especially for a freak like Lebron.

There really aren't many cases of high level players being basically injury free for 15+ year like lebron. At least that I can think of. Maybe Karl Malone???

I know some people in sports performance to ask.

I’m curious about minutes played. I’d guess that’s one of the more relevant factors

 

[navery12]

Why would Memphis do that when they could trade him later in the year and get something back?

You used to see the big buyouts like Carmelo's when tanking was a thing. But it isn't anymore.

Why would Memphis spend $17 million to buy out Iguodola's contract? Why would Iguodala give up $17 million to make the NBA minimum somewhere else? Either Memphis pays a boatload for someone that never plays a minute for them, or Iguodala gives up millions for an NBA minimum contract when he is 35 years old. Meeting in the middle is a useless compromise for both sides.

I guess a buyout is possible, but I don't know why either side would do it.

Because they already got their something back when they made the trade and GS sent a 1st rounder with him.

And Iguodala isn't giving up any money, he gets paid his entire contract still when he's bought out and then gets to play for a winner. If he gets bought out and signs for them minimum with someone else he gets his $2M min deal from the Lakers and gets the other $15M from Memphis

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because they already got their something back when they made the trade and GS sent a 1st rounder with him.

And Iguodala isn't giving up any money, he gets paid his entire contract still when he's bought out and then gets to play for a winner. If he gets bought out and signs for them minimum with someone else he gets his $2M min deal from the Lakers and gets the other $15M from Memphis

Memphis has the 1st rounder whether they buy out Iquodala or not. Generally, the player is the one that eats the contract, because he wants to go play somewhere else where he will get paid. In this case, Iguodala is not going to get paid, so he would just be giving up millions, at this late point in his career, for essentially nothing financially.

We will find out soon enough if Memphis is going to throw away $15 million or not.

 

[djct1999]

Klay's return announcement is the best.

How does anyone not love Klay? He is my favorite non-UConn guy in the NBA.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Kawhi is going to do what Kawhi is going to do. We should start looking at the revised rosters.

Celtics:

Ainge is not done yet, but for now, their lineup is:

C Kanter
F Jalen Brown
F Hayward
SG Tatum
PG Kemba

Bench:

G Smart
F Robert Williams
G/F Langford
F Grant Williams
F Ojeleye

It is hard to figure out who on the end of the bench has signed and hasn't, so my roster may be off.

They really need Morris back. I am surprised they are not making a run at Cousins in case they don't get Morris. I think Edwards and Waters have uphill fights to make the team. Ainge will make some moves to get a 25 mpg PF.

The Celtics will be a very efficient, high scoring team next season that will be a lot of fun to watch. Putting Kemba with these finishers will be a defensive nightmare for opponents. On the other hand, the Celtics defense could be a problem. The season basically comes down to Hayward. He should be fully healed two years after his leg injury, but will he be the same player he was before he got hurt? If he is close, the Celtics will win over 50 games and be one of the top 4-5 teams in the East.

 

[husky429]

Kawhi is going to do what Kawhi is going to do. We should start looking at the revised rosters.

Celtics:

Ainge is not done yet, but for now, their lineup is:

C Kanter
F Jalen Brown
F Hayward
SG Tatum
PG Kemba

Bench:

G Smart
F Robert Williams
G/F Langford
F Grant Williams
F Ojeleye


They really need Morris back. I am surprised they are not making a run at Cousins in case they don't get Morris. I think Edwards and Waters have uphill fights to make the team. Ainge will make some moves to get a 25 mpg PF.

The Celtics will be a very efficient, high scoring team next season that will be a lot of fun to watch. Putting Kemba with these finishers will be a defensive nightmare for opponents. On the other hand, the Celtics defense could be a problem. The season basically comes down to Hayward. He should be fully healed two years after his leg injury, but will he be the same player he was before he got hurt? If he is close, the Celtics will win over 50 games and be one of the top 4-5 teams in the East.

They are meeting with Cousins today.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Indiana:

C: Miles Turner
PF: Sabonis
F: Lamb
G: Oladipo
G: Brogdon

F Warren - will start until Oladipo's return, likely in January
G/F McDermott
G Holliday
F Leaf
C Bitadze

I will give the Pacers credit for salvaging an ugly offseason where they lost 6 of their Top 10 players from last year. I like Lamb and Brogdon, but neither is a dominant "go to" player offensively, and the whole team seems kind of slow. Losing Collison to retirement hurts. He was a fast, athletic guard, and Indiana could really use him now. They have cap space, so maybe they will bring someone in through a trade.

The Pacers' season comes down to one thing: When does Oladipo return, and is he 100%. Recoveries from knee injuries are generally pretty complete in the modern NBA. If they get the Oladipo that was dominant through mid-January last year, Indiana will be one of the best teams in the East. If Oladipo's return slides, or he doesn't come back 100%, this is a 45 win, 6ish seed in the East.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I’m curious about minutes played. I’d guess that’s one of the more relevant factors

LeBron I believe is currently 3rd ALL-TIME in REGULAR SEASON minutes behind only Kareem & Malone. So the potential issue is the high mileage early in career as both those guys had long runs still playing regularly in their late 30's (and longer for Kareem). LeBron is already the all-time leader in playoff minutes and added to his regular season durability those are hard miles.
But on the other side LeBron has a near indestructible body and has invested vastly more than anyone before him in terms of training, diet and treatments. I think this past year was a purposeful throwaway to give him a break - he might have played thru his injuries on a more competitive team. I thought the goal always was to miss the playoffs, rest until the reinforcements (Davis) showed up. Given everything I think the odds are still with LeBron playing another 5 years at a high level IF he manages his minutes smartly going forward. His injuries & reduced PT this past year are the exception - concerning that it occurs right as his age hits the possibly declining years, but his historical performance portends LeBron will resume playing at a high level.

The historical analogies don't work given modern advancements. For example Tom Brady is way beyond any historical precedent AND he clearly doesn't have the otherworldly physique LeBron does.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Kawhi is going to do what Kawhi is going to do. We should start looking at the revised rosters.

Celtics:

Ainge is not done yet, but for now, their lineup is:

C Kanter
F Jalen Brown
F Hayward
SG Tatum
PG Kemba

Bench:

G Smart
F Robert Williams
G/F Langford
F Grant Williams
F Ojeleye

It is hard to figure out who on the end of the bench has signed and hasn't, so my roster may be off.

They really need Morris back. I am surprised they are not making a run at Cousins in case they don't get Morris. I think Edwards and Waters have uphill fights to make the team. Ainge will make some moves to get a 25 mpg PF.

The Celtics will be a very efficient, high scoring team next season that will be a lot of fun to watch. Putting Kemba with these finishers will be a defensive nightmare for opponents. On the other hand, the Celtics defense could be a problem. The season basically comes down to Hayward. He should be fully healed two years after his leg injury, but will he be the same player he was before he got hurt? If he is close, the Celtics will win over 50 games and be one of the top 4-5 teams in the East.

Not that it matters with Brad's "positionless" basketball approach but Jaylen is SG and the taller Tatum with a lesser handle is the SF. Given who is on the team, I think Hayward becomes a stretch 4. That's mostly about D, Hayward is the strongest, biggest of the three. Tatum can't guard quick 2's but Brown can and is the better athlete.

I'm not entirely sure that R. Williams won't start. From an offense/defense rotation perspective, I'd pair Kanter with Smart and Ojeleye on a second team. Grant Williams is starting to make sense to me as a draft pick. Low upside, but low floor pure PF with lots of college experience and more ready to play than most rookies. This team is going to need some decent minutes from him. He's the only true 4 on the roster.