OT: Giants

[jibsey]

Barkely is doing all this on his own with no help. All quarterbacks would struggle behind the Giants offensive line but why not a quarterback like Kapernick who if flushed out of the pocket can escape with a gain now and then? The politics should not be a big deal, and the Giants and the NFL would look good.

 

[Husky25]

Moneyball also wasn't about going against the grain for going-against-the-grain's sake.

A superstar running back improves up to about 27 years old. The vast vast majority drop off the face of the football Earth by 30. A quarterback, especially with the new rules, can last well beyond that age and a decent line will help a serviceable back to be more effective than expected.

I think the point that most are trying to make here is that regardless of how special Barkley might be, the Giants had far more pressing needs in April. In the salary cap era, an early first round running back is the cherry, not the banana.

Also, moneyball was about finding inefficiencies in the baseball market two MLB CBAs ago. NFL teams have been playing Monopoly for over 2 1/2 decades. They all have the same amount (theoretically) at the beginning of the game. Some people focus on the railroads. Some buy up on Mediterranean and Baltic.

 

[Husky25]

I think there's a very good chance that Barkley will be a lot better than Gurley, if he isn't already is. He's averaging 5.2 YPC and is on pace for 107 receptions. And I think the idea is that we'll get a QB; Shurmur is the last guy on earth who still thinks Eli's got some gas left in the tank. If he even actually thinks that.

What I've been saying since even before the draft is that Barkley has a chance not to be a once-in-a-generation RB, but the chance to be a new kind of player. The point of Moneyball wasn't that Beane was able to identify and obtain high OBP players; the point was he was able to find a market inefficiency and exploit it. People are stuck on "a conventional RB isn't worth a high pick." But what about a guy who can line up anywhere on the field and take it to the house every time he touches the ball?

Getting ahead of myself, of course. The kid has played just 6 games. But what I'm seeing is not Ezekiel Elliott or Todd Gurley. I'm seeing more than that. Let's improve the line and get him a solid QB and see what he (and OBJ) can really do.

Moneyball also wasn't about going against the grain for going-against-the-grain's sake.

A superstar running back improves up to about 27 years old. The vast vast majority drop off the face of the football Earth by 30. A quarterback, especially with the new rules, can last well beyond that age and a decent line will help a serviceable back to be more effective than expected.

I think the point that most are trying to make here is that regardless of how special Barkley might be, the Giants had far more pressing needs in April. In the salary cap era, an early first round running back is the cherry, not the banana.

Also, moneyball was about finding inefficiencies in the baseball market two MLB CBAs ago. NFL teams have been playing Monopoly for over 2 1/2 decades. They all have the same amount (theoretically) at the beginning of the game. Some people focus on the railroads. Some buy up Mediterranean and Baltic.

 

[8893]

Some people focus on the railroads. Some buy up on Mediterranean and Baltic.

I always preferred the greens (Pacific, North Carolina and Pennsylvania Aves) and yellows (Marvin Gardens, Ventnor and Atlantic Aves.).

 

[Exit 4]

I always preferred the greens (Pacific, North Carolina and Pennsylvania Aves) and yellows (Marvin Gardens, Ventnor and Atlantic Aves.).

This should ruin some of the fun next time you play.
Probabilities in the Game of Monopoly&reg

 

[KembaStepback]

I think there's a very good chance that Barkley will be a lot better than Gurley, if he isn't already is. He's averaging 5.2 YPC and is on pace for 107 receptions. And I think the idea is that we'll get a QB; Shurmur is the last guy on earth who still thinks Eli's got some gas left in the tank. If he even actually thinks that.

What I've been saying since even before the draft is that Barkley has a chance not to be a once-in-a-generation RB, but the chance to be a new kind of player. The point of Moneyball wasn't that Beane was able to identify and obtain high OBP players; the point was he was able to find a market inefficiency and exploit it. People are stuck on "a conventional RB isn't worth a high pick." But what about a guy who can line up anywhere on the field and take it to the house every time he touches the ball?

Getting ahead of myself, of course. The kid has played just 6 games. But what I'm seeing is not Ezekiel Elliott or Todd Gurley. I'm seeing more than that. Let's improve the line and get him a solid QB and see what he (and OBJ) can really do.

I hope you're right...but I don't see the market inefficiency. He's already what, a top 5 paid RB in the league? The bottom line is, it doesn't matter how good he is. You need a QB in this league to win. Plain and simple.

 

[A10 fan]

If the Giants were determined to take Barkley at 2, they should have taken Mason Rudolph in the third round before the Steelers got him. Of course he's no sure thing, but most scouts regarded him well enough that he would have been good value in the third round. If you really thought that Eli had a couple of years left in him, they could have groomed Rudolph to be his eventual replacement. If in a year or two Rudolph doesn't appear to have the goods, you go ahead and spend the high draft pick on a qb. This is exactly what the Steelers did. If Rudolph has the goods, they will avoid having to spend picks to trade up to get a decent qb in a few years.

 

[8893]

If the Giants were determined to take Barkley at 2, they should have taken Mason Rudolph in the third round before the Steelers got him. Of course he's no sure thing, but most scouts regarded him well enough that he would have been good value in the third round. If you really thought that Eli had a couple of years left in him, they could have groomed Rudolph to be his eventual replacement. If in a year or two Rudolph doesn't appear to have the goods, you go ahead and spend the high draft pick on a qb. This is exactly what the Steelers did. If Rudolph has the goods, they will avoid having to spend picks to trade up to get a decent qb in a few years.

That's what I thought the plan was with Davis Webb; I guess they figured he didn't have the goods somehow without playing him for a single snap.

 

[AdamaNation]

Exactly. See what you have.

An overrated qb from Richmond unfortunately. I feel like they wasted a pick on him to give fans the appearance of attending to the situation. At this point I would go the Kurt Warner route and wait for the right guy instead of gambling on a pick,as we do, come draft time. I was at the game last night and the fans were rabid from the opening near fumble to the tipped pick. Yes Eli is a concern, but his talented wrs aren’t really getting open either. Sb is getting so much love as he can is open. The defense is playing soft on our guys now so not to get beat over the top. Should Eli try? Sure, but guys run 4.3 40s. You need 4 seconds for that. We don’t have that. The hope is Barkley and his play making will cause some d to sag down and respect him ....or not. The qb and oline are issues. But what about the special teams and our vaunted defense? We put no pressure on the qb and rarely get tackled for loss. We are again at the bottom for turnovers and 3 and outs as well. Wentz went like14/15 on 3rds for 198 yards or something. There are a host of issues. And if we are at Cleveland status that is a cultural issue. Take away Eli and our record is the same. We are just in a bad place right now and will be for sometime. This is at the feet of mr reese.

 

[nomar]

Moneyball also wasn't about going against the grain for going-against-the-grain's sake.

A superstar running back improves up to about 27 years old. The vast vast majority drop off the face of the football Earth by 30. A quarterback, especially with the new rules, can last well beyond that age and a decent line will help a serviceable back to be more effective than expected.

I think the point that most are trying to make here is that regardless of how special Barkley might be, the Giants had far more pressing needs in April. In the salary cap era, an early first round running back is the cherry, not the banana.

Also, moneyball was about finding inefficiencies in the baseball market two MLB CBAs ago. NFL teams have been playing Monopoly for over 2 1/2 decades. They all have the same amount (theoretically) at the beginning of the game. Some people focus on the railroads. Some buy up Mediterranean and Baltic.

I understand the points being made. I was in favor of trading back, personally. I don't know what deals were pursued and/or offered, if any. But if the Giants believed that none of the QBs was close to a sure thing, then there was a good reason to pick someone safer there and draft a QB later. I assumed, wrongly in hindsight, that they had more confidence in Webb. We can get a QB if Lauletta isn't any good; there are always starting QBs available.

Of course MLB and NFL are different, but everybody's always looking for an edge. The rich MLB teams read Moneyball, too.

 

[nomar]

I hope you're right...but I don't see the market inefficiency. He's already what, a top 5 paid RB in the league? The bottom line is, it doesn't matter how good he is. You need a QB in this league to win. Plain and simple.

Well, sure. But it's not like that was our only chance to take a QB. And we're not a QB away from the Super Bowl. This team stinks right now. We can find one in the offseason. I get that there were a number of QBs available, but if Gettleman didn't love any of them, then he didn't love any of them.

My Moneyball point was that the conventional wisdom has become that RBs aren't worth the money (although Zeke and Gurley were drafted early), but that consensus is based on an assumption of what a guy lining up as a 2- or 3-down RB is. Gurley's more of a pass catcher than Elliott is, but Barkley's a threat to catch 100 passes. Some of that may be a function of Eli checking down all the time, but the dude runs routes and catches long balls too. So you've got a guy you can move around on the field and change the dynamic. Like I said earlier, if he's just "very good" (i.e., top-10 RB) then I agree that a #2 pick won't have been worth it. And if Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen turn into Pro Bowl QBs, that'll change the analysis, too.

 

[KembaStepback]

Well, sure. But it's not like that was our only chance to take a QB. And we're not a QB away from the Super Bowl. This team stinks right now. We can find one in the offseason. I get that there were a number of QBs available, but if Gettleman didn't love any of them, then he didn't love any of them.

My Moneyball point was that the conventional wisdom has become that RBs aren't worth the money (although Zeke and Gurley were drafted early), but that consensus is based on an assumption of what a guy lining up as a 2- or 3-down RB is. Gurley's more of a pass catcher than Elliott is, but Barkley's a threat to catch 100 passes. Some of that may be a function of Eli checking down all the time, but the dude runs routes and catches long balls too. So you've got a guy you can move around on the field and change the dynamic. Like I said earlier, if he's just "very good" (i.e., top-10 RB) then I agree that a #2 pick won't have been worth it. And if Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen turn into Pro Bowl QBs, that'll change the analysis, too.

The difference is that there is a salary cap in the NFL and self imposed salary limits in MLB. The way to win in the NFL is to spend at the core positions. QB, LT, DE, CB. Basically it's about protecting the QB and rushing the QB. Teams have had success lately when they have a rookie QB making pennies, so they can spend more on the rest of the roster. Spending big money on elite level skill players like RB and WR is a fast track to losing. There hasn't been a big name WR that has won the SB in a very long time. I believe the same can be said about RB as well. If you can draft a guy like Kamara late, it works because he's making pennies. We hadn't seen Barkley play a snap and he was already a top 2 or 3 paid RB in the league. They just paid a diva, me me me WR a ridiculous contract and he's already talking about leaving. The reason he wants to leave is because Eli is terrible. I know the OL is bad too, but Eli missed some throws he HAS to make. I know he was getting rushed a lot, but the plays he wasn't getting rushed, he played like he was. He also cannot make any off schedule plays. There is literally not a single starting quarterback I wouldn't take over Eli right now. The giants would be in a WAY better situation if they just drafted Darnold. They could have still taken Hernandez as well. Rbs are plug and play. If the giants struggled this yr, at least we'd see Darnold progressing. The Giants refuse to bench Eli. Shurmur will lose the locker room for this. They might end up lucky and get a top pick to draft a qb next yr...but that simply was never the plan.

Sorry I went on a bit of a tangent there...but im still so mad about last night

 

[nomar]

The difference is that there is a salary cap in the NFL and self imposed salary limits in MLB. The way to win in the NFL is to spend at the core positions. QB, LT, DE, CB. Basically it's about protecting the QB and rushing the QB. Teams have had success lately when they have a rookie QB making pennies, so they can spend more on the rest of the roster. Spending big money on elite level skill players like RB and WR is a fast track to losing. There hasn't been a big name WR that has won the SB in a very long time. I believe the same can be said about RB as well. If you can draft a guy like Kamara late, it works because he's making pennies. We hadn't seen Barkley play a snap and he was already a top 2 or 3 paid RB in the league. They just paid a diva, me me me WR a ridiculous contract and he's already talking about leaving. The reason he wants to leave is because Eli is terrible. I know the OL is bad too, but Eli missed some throws he HAS to make. I know he was getting rushed a lot, but the plays he wasn't getting rushed, he played like he was. He also cannot make any off schedule plays. There is literally not a single starting quarterback I wouldn't take over Eli right now. The giants would be in a WAY better situation if they just drafted Darnold. They could have still taken Hernandez as well. Rbs are plug and play. If the giants struggled this yr, at least we'd see Darnold progressing. The Giants refuse to bench Eli. Shurmur will lose the locker room for this. They might end up lucky and get a top pick to draft a qb next yr...but that simply was never the plan.

Sorry I went on a bit of a tangent there...but im still so mad about last night

I get the difference. And I get the arguments. I do. And it's not like I have faith in Gettleman.

I'm not even mad anymore. It's just pathetic.

On the bright side, I have Saquon on my fantasy team.

 

[intlzncster]

I think there's a very good chance that Barkley will be a lot better than Gurley, if he isn't already is. He's averaging 5.2 YPC and is on pace for 107 receptions. And I think the idea is that we'll get a QB; Shurmur is the last guy on earth who still thinks Eli's got some gas left in the tank. If he even actually thinks that.

What I've been saying since even before the draft is that Barkley has a chance not to be a once-in-a-generation RB, but the chance to be a new kind of player. The point of Moneyball wasn't that Beane was able to identify and obtain high OBP players; the point was he was able to find a market inefficiency and exploit it. People are stuck on "a conventional RB isn't worth a high pick." But what about a guy who can line up anywhere on the field and take it to the house every time he touches the ball?

Getting ahead of myself, of course. The kid has played just 6 games. But what I'm seeing is not Ezekiel Elliott or Todd Gurley. I'm seeing more than that. Let's improve the line and get him a solid QB and see what he (and OBJ) can really do.

The following is not a knock on Barkley. He appears to be once in a generation back (ie Barry Sanders, Adrien Peterson et al), and is damn exciting to watch. As a Pats fan, I'm tuning into Giants games (yuck), so I can see both him and OBJ. Tons of fun to watch play.

That said, I don't think it was taking advantage of a market inefficiency. I think in general it's bad business to draft a back that high. Now, in Barkley's case, it's pretty clear he's special and something else; guys like him aren't coming out of the draft every year. So as opposed to inefficiency, it's just a one off. It's still a passing league dominated by QBs in a salary capped environment.

Things I don't like about the selection:

• All that money coming to a back really is a waste in the modern NFL. The cap and value of a QB in a throwing league is simply too high.
• Given the money, you have to nail a QB pronto, who can play, and play well, right away (think Carson Wentz). That's the only way to really make it work.
• Also, given the money, it's really dangerous to invest all that money in one guy at such a high use and injury-prone position. Better business to have a stable of backs.
• What you have to take into account, is opportunity cost. Backs at later picks, aren't merely 'serviceable' backs; guys like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara are dynamic playmakers and we're third Rd picks. They are a step down from Bell and Gurley, and maybe two behind Barkley (it's still early days), but they are still damn good.
• They've just paid OBJ a fortune, and that will eat valuable cap space even further.

Two offseting points related specifically to this Giants team:

• They are very fortunate that they blow this year. This sets them up for a high end QB draft choices next year. But they HAVE to nail it. No if, ands, or buts. Easier said than done of course.
• Even if they drafted a young QB this year, he couldn't have play right away anyhow; not until they fix this Oline. This is one of the biggest issues they have yet to address. They can't stand stand pat here or they'll never win. Huge mistake not doing more this off season.

If I was a fan, I'd hope they lose all their games, even though it sucks to watch this year.

jmho

 

[Rocktheworld]

Dammit I was hoping the Monopoly strategy mini-tangent would take hold

 

[minidarren]

Giants send scouts to watch Oregon QB Justin Herbert again
via Sports News

 

[AdamaNation]

The difference is that there is a salary cap in the NFL and self imposed salary limits in MLB. The way to win in the NFL is to spend at the core positions. QB, LT, DE, CB. Basically it's about protecting the QB and rushing the QB. Teams have had success lately when they have a rookie QB making pennies, so they can spend more on the rest of the roster. Spending big money on elite level skill players like RB and WR is a fast track to losing. There hasn't been a big name WR that has won the SB in a very long time. I believe the same can be said about RB as well. If you can draft a guy like Kamara late, it works because he's making pennies. We hadn't seen Barkley play a snap and he was already a top 2 or 3 paid RB in the league. They just paid a diva, me me me WR a ridiculous contract and he's already talking about leaving. The reason he wants to leave is because Eli is terrible. I know the OL is bad too, but Eli missed some throws he HAS to make. I know he was getting rushed a lot, but the plays he wasn't getting rushed, he played like he was. He also cannot make any off schedule plays. There is literally not a single starting quarterback I wouldn't take over Eli right now. The giants would be in a WAY better situation if they just drafted Darnold. They could have still taken Hernandez as well. Rbs are plug and play. If the giants struggled this yr, at least we'd see Darnold progressing. The Giants refuse to bench Eli. Shurmur will lose the locker room for this. They might end up lucky and get a top pick to draft a qb next yr...but that simply was never the plan.

Sorry I went on a bit of a tangent there...but im still so mad about last night

First part of this is spot on. Ask Seattle.

 

[tcf15]

 

[whaler11]

It’s interesting to me that you guys are most angry over Eli. I’m not a giants fan, but to me the dumbest thing they’ve done is give a truck load of money to OBJ. Guy is the textbook definition of a cancer, and everyone knows that elite WRs don’t make teams good to begin with. Saquon is an amazing talent, but that’s a strange move too. They so desperately needed OL help or a QB. Sure, they probably got the best talent in the draft, but they needed to focus on the foundation first IMO.

the dumbest thing any team in history has ever done is watch 2017 eli, triple down on him and back him up with the 93rd and 136th best quarterbacks in the league.

Jay Cutler would improve them.

 

[whaler11]

Oh I totally agree, Eli is awful and the giants have held on to him for way too long. But the way they’re operating in regards to guys like OBJ will keep you guys in the gutter well after Eli is gone

Yeah OBJ is a monumental mistake. But they are 4-19 last 23 because the QB was cooked in 2013.

 

[whaler11]

Moneyball also wasn't about going against the grain for going-against-the-grain's sake.

A superstar running back improves up to about 27 years old. The vast vast majority drop off the face of the football Earth by 30. A quarterback, especially with the new rules, can last well beyond that age and a decent line will help a serviceable back to be more effective than expected.

I think the point that most are trying to make here is that regardless of how special Barkley might be, the Giants had far more pressing needs in April. In the salary cap era, an early first round running back is the cherry, not the banana.

Also, moneyball was about finding inefficiencies in the baseball market two MLB CBAs ago. NFL teams have been playing Monopoly for over 2 1/2 decades. They all have the same amount (theoretically) at the beginning of the game. Some people focus on the railroads. Some buy up on Mediterranean and Baltic.

nfl running backs are like new cars. they depreciate from the second you draft them. gurley and barkley - they are all better at 22/23 than they will be at 27.

fournette is 23 and he’s already dinged up enough where you can argue he is past his peak. he spent it at lsu.

 

[whaler11]

The following is not a knock on Barkley. He appears to be once in a generation back (ie Barry Sanders, Adrien Peterson et al), and is damn exciting to watch. As a Pats fan, I'm tuning into Giants games (yuck), so I can see both him and OBJ. Tons of fun to watch play.

That said, I don't think it was taking advantage of a market inefficiency. I think in general it's bad business to draft a back that high. Now, in Barkley's case, it's pretty clear he's special and something else; guys like him aren't coming out of the draft every year. So as opposed to inefficiency, it's just a one off. It's still a passing league dominated by QBs in a salary capped environment.

Things I don't like about the selection:

• All that money coming to a back really is a waste in the modern NFL. The cap and value of a QB in a throwing league is simply too high.
• Given the money, you have to nail a QB pronto, who can play, and play well, right away (think Carson Wentz). That's the only way to really make it work.
• Also, given the money, it's really dangerous to invest all that money in one guy at such a high use and injury-prone position. Better business to have a stable of backs.
• What you have to take into account, is opportunity cost. Backs at later picks, aren't merely 'serviceable' backs; guys like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara are dynamic playmakers and we're third Rd picks. They are a step down from Bell and Gurley, and maybe two behind Barkley (it's still early days), but they are still damn good.
• They've just paid OBJ a fortune, and that will eat valuable cap space even further.

Two offseting points related specifically to this Giants team:

• They are very fortunate that they blow this year. This sets them up for a high end QB draft choices next year. But they HAVE to nail it. No if, ands, or buts. Easier said than done of course.
• Even if they drafted a young QB this year, he couldn't have play right away anyhow; not until they fix this Oline. This is one of the biggest issues they have yet to address. They can't stand stand pat here or they'll never win. Huge mistake not doing more this off season.

If I was a fan, I'd hope they lose all their games, even though it sucks to watch this year.

jmho

Running backs in 2018 are highly inefficient.

Barkley broke 5 tackles in a highlight reel run for 9 yards.

In the 2018 NFL CJ Bethard can check down to George Kittle for 9 yards all day.

The rules changed. You have to throw the ball all over the field. You literally can’t win with a late 80’s NFC East approach.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Yeah OBJ is a monumental mistake. But they are 4-19 last 23 because the QB was cooked in 2013.

My perspective, OBJ is home run move and once the QB is replaced with a mobile/competent player, he will again be the best WR in football. I’d love to say the problem was on the protection a defensive, versatility, but once we get a mobie QB we are, IMO, a top 10 team.

 

[Devland]

The Giants model right now is the complete opposite of the Patriots model. The Patriots have a value set on every position and never over pay for that position. It allows for team balance. They never invest heavily in WR's or RB's. I think the theory is, with the salary cap, if you overpay for skill positions then you can not afford to pay for other positions like the o-line. Would the Patriots drafted Barkley or Beckham if they had the chance? There's a good chance they would have. They would never have signed them to a second high price contract though and traded them or let them go to free agency (see Curtis Martin, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour Dion Branch, Wes Welker Danny Amendola...…) It's all about balance in the salary cap era and a lot of teams don't have the guts to release or trade star players. The Giants problem right now is, they have a lot of money tied up in Beckham and when Barkley's contract end they will pay big for him. They will then, like all teams do, pay big for their QB. With all this money tied up with three players there will be positions where they can't afford (because of the salary cap) to pay for. Part of the solution is to only keep one of either Barkley or Beckham.

 

[Rico444]

The Giants model right now is the complete opposite of the Patriots model. The Patriots have a value set on every position and never over pay for that position. It allows for team balance. They never invest heavily in WR's or RB's. I think the theory is, with the salary cap, if you overpay for skill positions then you can not afford to pay for other positions like the o-line. Would the Patriots drafted Barkley or Beckham if they had the chance? There's a good chance they would have. They would never have signed them to a second high price contract though and traded them or let them go to free agency (see Curtis Martin, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour Dion Branch, Wes Welker Danny Amendola...…) It's all about balance in the salary cap era and a lot of teams don't have the guts to release or trade star players. The Giants problem right now is, they have a lot of money tied up in Beckham and when Barkley's contract end they will pay big for him. They will then, like all teams do, pay big for their QB. With all this money tied up with three players there will be positions where they can't afford (because of the salary cap) to pay for. Part of the solution is to only keep one of either Barkley or Beckham.

I'm not a Giants or pats fan, but it's easy to say you can let overvalued skill players go when you have the greatest quarterback in NFL history. He takes no-name, mediocre receivers every year and makes them great.

I'm a Cowboys fan, and we tried to follow this method this year. We cut Dez Bryant because he made too much money. Now we can't move the ball on offense because none of our receivers can get open and Dak isn't good enough to throw receivers open like the great ones. Give us Tom Brady of a few years ago and we'd be 4-1 or 5-0 right now.