The 3 coaches mentioned above are all great coaches. Some of the very best coaches in the country.
Dawn Staley--look at her team's records in the first 8 years at South Carolina:
2008–09 South Carolina 10–18 2–12 11th
2009–10 South Carolina 14–15 7–9 T–7th
2010–11 South Carolina 18–15 8–8 T–5th
2011–12 South Carolina 25–10 10–6 T–4th
2012–13 South Carolina 25–8 11–5 T–4th
2013–14
South Carolina 29–5 14–2 1st
2014–15
South Carolina 34–3 15–1 T–1st
2015–16
South Carolina 33–2 16–0 1st
Her team's SEC and overall record have improved every single season. That is remarkable. 11th in the SEC to back to back SEC Championships in 8 years, along with 3 straight #1 seeds and a preseason ranking of #1 or #2 going into 2016-17.
Why hasn't she won it yet? It's not easy to turn around a program and win a title. It took Geno ten years, Pat 13, Muffett 14. Dawn has as good a shot as anyone at winning a title the next two years with Wilson in the lineup.
Muffett-knocking on the door too many times without winning? They always have outstanding talent but never an "over the top" type of player. Look at them for the last 6 tournaments:
2011-first team ever to defeat both Tennessee and Connecticut in the NCAA tournament. They were a 2 seed who upset 2 number one seeds and lost a game they definitely could have won against a good but not great Texas A&M team. This was by far their best chance to win it all in the past 6 years.
2012-They faced 39-0 Baylor and gave them a good game until Dev Peters got into foul trouble, then Griner dominated. Odds were stacked against them.
2013-Notre Dame was the biggest overachiever in basketball that season. They had zero business beating UCONN three times. UCONN/Stewart finally played to their potential against ND coupled with poor showings by Diggins/McBride meant there was no chance of another win. This was their 2nd best chance, but even so the odds were still stacked against them.
2014- They faced another 39-0 team and just lost an All American starter. No chance going up against a frontline of Stewart and Dolson.
2015-They faced a 37-1 UCONN team that was essentially an undefeated team minus a fluke loss early in the year. Odds were stacked against them.
2016-Tara worked her magic against Notre Dame and pulled off the massive upset. Even if they made it to the final game, a 38-0 senior led UCONN team was waiting for them. Zero chance.
Muffett's teams made 5 of the last 6 Fours, won the last 2 Big East Championships and is 56-1 against ACC foes. They've accomplished all of this without a #1 overall recruit, and never fielding a team with more than 3 top ten recruits. Now without Stewart in the mix and ND fielding their strongest team on paper, they'll have their best shot to win it all.
Brenda-not my favorite coach by any means, but she's proven her 2006 title isn't just a one hit wonder. That said, what she accomplished in 2006 was remarkable, with 2 freshmen (including their PG), 2 sophomores and a junior in the lineup. Yes, the roster was talented, but there were many teams out there that had as good, if not better talent including Connecticut, Tennessee, Duke, North Carolina, Rutgers, and LSU. They upset a VERY good North Carolina team twice--the same team that handily beat both Tennessee and Connecticut that year, along with 2 wins against Duke. They then went on to beat a Duke team that was one of the deepest teams ever. Props to Frese for that title.
After 3 years of underachieving afterward, she has really showed her worth the last several years. In 2014, Maryland came out of nowhere to go to the Final Four, beating a #1 seed in the regional semi, and knocking off a solid Louisville team in Louisville in the regional final. Yes, they were stomped on by Notre Dame in the Final Four...but Notre Dame was also 37-0. And it's worth noting that her Maryland team was the only team to give ND a good fight in the regular season, so props to MD for that.
In 2015, Maryland was a well oiled machine who cruised to a Final Four before bowing out to Stewart and Co.
In 2016, they lost their PG and were still a top 5 team much of the year. They were upset in the NCAA tournament, but Frese did a really solid job considering the kids she had on her team.
Outside of Alyssa Thomas, I don't know if Maryland has ever had a top 5 recruit on their roster, yet they consistently form very good teams, and players develop nicely over their 4 years. This upcoming season IS their best shot to win it all since the Toliver/Coleman days because they have talent, and more importantly, UCONN is down from how they were a season ago.
Other programs have a lot more "life" to them now that UCONN is back down to earth. Going into the last 3 years, everyone knew a miracle was needed to upset Connecticut. One miracle was granted in the form of the massive Stanford upset. 117 other times, it was a comfortable win for UCONN. Most top program return their best players, so they are excited at the prospect of capitalizing on this opportunity. UCONN should use it as bulletin board material, but the players/program should also take it as a huge compliment as well.
