Oregon Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

Oregon: 2-2
Kenpom Rating: 39

Previous games:

• 11/7 W 80-45 over #359 Florida A&M
  • N’Faly Dante, 16 points, 10 rebounds, 4 steals
• 11/11 L 56-69 against #107 UC Irvine
  • N’Faly Dante, 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks,
• 11/15 W 81-51 over #163 Montana State
  • Kel’el Ware, 16 points, 2-3 from three, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks
• 11/20 L 56-66 v Houston
  • N’Faly Dante, 16 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks

Notable Rankings via KenPom:

• 2nd tallest team in the nation

OFFENSE: 37th in efficiency

• They don’t play with pace (194th fastest pace)
• They are excellent offensive rebounders (14th highest offensive rebounding rate)
• They are generating too many turnovers (238th lowest turnover %)
• They shoot a lot of threes (86th highest 3PA ratio) but haven’t been making shots (26.3 3p%. I file that under “bad luck”.
• They do a good job getting to the line (70th best FTA/FGA ratio)

DEFENSE: 56th in efficiency

• #1 on block percentage (21.3%)
• 15th best in preventing teams from getting to the line
• 24th in average opponents’ possession length (18.6 seconds per possession)
• 37th best opponent 2p% (41.2 2p%)
• 50th best defensive rebounding rate

After work today, I watched a replay of the Houston/Oregon game and their length is what immediately enthralled me. About 40% of their lineups feature the 6’5 180 fifth year senior Will Richardson at point, 6’8 220 Guerrier at the 3 and two of their three elite bigs (Dante, Ware and Bittle) playing the other two forward positions.

All three of their bigs are athletic, possess long wingspans and flash the ability to contest perimeter shots.

After three solid, but unspectacular seasons, N’Faly Dante has exploded into a feature offensive role in his senior season. Like Sanogo, Dante hails from Bamako, Mali and while both players are similar, there are slight differences. Dante is a better rim protector while Sanogo has a better outside shot. Sanogo also is much stronger.

Nate Bittle reminds me a lot of the Phoenix Suns version of Channing Frye: a rim-protector with a smooth perimeter shot and functional athleticism for his position. His lack of strength entices me for post-up situations for Sanogo whenever Dante needs to sit and Bittle is forced to play the 5.

Ware is an exceptional athlete who is more of a 7’0 combo forward than a true big. Frenetic energy, versatile defender and a unique offensive profile who looks comfortable on the dribble, moving the ball and shooting from deep.

More combo guard than true point guard, Will Richardson is a versatile offensive piece, but didn’t do much for me on defense. I like Newton’s ability, pending injury, to break Richardson down in one-to-one situations.

According to a buddy of mine who lives in Boulder and goes to a ton of Colorado games, Barthelemy lost his starting spot in mid-February, is a very streaky shooter and is just ok defensively.

Overall, the Houston/Oregon game was all Houston for the last 30 minutes or so. As a team that relies a lot on rebounding, Oregon seemed overmatched by Houston’s rebounding dominance and will face another strong rebounding team in UConn. Oregon also gave up too many turnovers: early turnovers in the first half lead to a momentum shift for Houston. Overall: Oregon had 16 turnovers compared to 10 assists.

It’s UConn’s first true challenge, but on paper it looks like UConn has the advantage, especially in our ability to matchup Dante with an even better big in Sanogo.

 

[husky429]

I think we have a perfect formula to beat them. Sanogo is a better player than Dante and we have a ton of guard depth to throw at them, and we're close to matching their size. Not a great shooting team either.

 

[Huskyforlife]

My only fear for this game is a mean reversion on their 3pt shooting. Feels like they’re due for a big game on the perimeter. Sanogo and Dante is about even give or take, and our 2-13 is better than theirs on paper. Just help when they post up Karaban and we should be fine.

 

[elmcityboy]

i wish we had johnson for this one.

i watched a bit of the houston game -- they have such a weird, unbalanced roster. three of their five or so best players are centers and a fourth (guerrier) would probably play minutes at center on a lot of college teams. given that cbb is such a guard-driven game, i really like our chances (especially if we can get turnovers and runouts).

 

[REB1094]

This will be Sanogo's first true test. Oregon will likely play him straight up, and it's up to Sanogo to dominate. We know he can, he put Walker Kessler in a body bag last year and that was with a less developed offensive game than he has now.

This will also be Karaban's first true test defensively. He's a great player with great instinct but he'll need to grit this one out physically to have a chance of surviving. We should be able to help him by cheating off of shooters, but I'm irrationally getting NMSU vibes where bad shooters will light us up

If they play slow, our goal should be to speed them up. If Andre plays more under control and we have Newton/Hawkins in the game with him, we should get lots of fast breaks and lots of three pointers

 

[Mister P]

I think our backcourt should put up big numbers against the Oregon guards and be the deciding factor. I see Newton having a very good game.
Both teams go after blocking shots which will probably mean a high amount of free throws being taken which should be another advantage for the Huskies.

UConn by 9.

 

[Umami Zen]

Our team speed/ball movement/bench wins the game

 

[auror]

This will be the first real test of our 4/5-out offense.

Sanogo popping to take the rim protector out of the paint and free up driving lanes will be key. We've done a really good job of driving to kick so far this year. That will be very important as driving to score will be extremely difficult with their multiple shotblockers in at all times. Passing lanes will be more difficult and harder to see with their length as well.

Karaban spacing and then cutting backdoor to the rim could be useful. Karaban and Jackson are going to have to really work on the glass. Boxing out, not just jumping for the rebound.

In general, we're going to have to shoot well to win. Either that or force 20 turnovers.

 

[Palatine]

It's going to come down to which team scores more points.

 

[EastConn'er]

It's going to come down to which team scores more points.

It's going to come down to which team scores more points.

I still remember last time a team with the least amount of points a won a game! Yes, I'm old.... but it's different times now. Ratings and air time wins games these days...

 

[HooperScooper]

I had 2 thoughts after reading this scouting report.

1). What kind of coach lets so many bad 3 point shooters shoot so many threes?

2). Like Huskyforlife above I'm worried that Oregon has shot so horribly from three that they have a really good shooting game coming. Hopefully that game comes after Thursday.

 

[Huskyforlife]

I had 2 thoughts after reading this scouting report.

1). What kind of coach lets so many bad 3 point shooters shoot so many threes?

2). Like Huskyforlife above I'm worried that Oregon has shot so horribly from three that they have a really good shooting game coming. Hopefully that game comes after Thursday.

My guess is they shoot better in practice, like we let Brendan Adams fire away for the same reason. It’s also still a sorta small sample size. Hawkins is shooting a solid 38%, but I think we’re all fine with him taking 10+ 3s per game.

 

[MexicoHusky]

Watched em' play Houston. They lost easily, but they have athletes. I want to see Hawk, Newton, Karaban and Clingan play against solid athletes. Want to see what they do when they aren't wide open or guarded by someone +3" shorter.

The past decade has made me realize how a player can look lights out until the defender stays in their face. Until the defender apllies pressure the entire game. Which also makes me nostalgic for my boy JC. Nostalgic for a time when the opposing team's bench suddenly shrinks. And your bench plays the same exact minutes.

 

[HooperScooper]

My guess is they shoot better in practice, like we let Brendan Adams fire away for the same reason. It’s also still a sorta small sample size. Hawkins is shooting a solid 38%, but I think we’re all fine with him taking 10+ 3s per game.

Yeah but when you're an upperclassmen the sample size is probably not so small. Using the OP's data....

Rivaldo Soares is a senior. He's a career 25.3% 3 point shooter and half of his shots this season are from three (at a 16.7% clip).

Keeshawn Barthelemy is a junior. He's a career 32.7% 3 point shooter and 2/3 of his shots this season are from three (at a 27.3% clip).

Quincy Guerrier is a senior. He's a career 29.8% 3 point shooter and 60% of his shots this season are from three (at a 22.2% clip).

These 3 don't seem like they've been good career 3 point shooters. But this season they are shooting less than their career averages.

Richardson, Bittle and Ware seem fine from three.

 

[Candyman]

Oregon is big very big. Adama will not have it easy at all. May struggle if he tries to do too much. Will need our shooters to be on.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Yeah but when you're an upperclassmen the sample size is probably not so small. Using the OP's data....

Rivaldo Soares is a senior. He's a career 25.3% 3 point shooter and half of his shots this season are from three (at a 16.7% clip).

Keeshawn Barthelemy is a junior. He's a career 32.7% 3 point shooter and 2/3 of his shots this season are from three (at a 27.3% clip).

Quincy Guerrier is a senior. He's a career 29.8% 3 point shooter and 60% of his shots this season are from three (at a 22.2% clip).

These 3 don't seem like they've been good career 3 point shooters. But this season they are shooting less than their career averages.

Richardson, Bittle and Ware seem fine from three.

It’s a good point. But guys like Jackson and sanogo couldn’t shoot 3s, until they could. So I’m just saying it’s hard to know if guys are hitting in practice/changed their shots.

Another thing to consider is the quality of their looks. With such an interiorly dominate team, you have to think they create open 3s off of help to some extent, and it’s hard to make defenses space out if they don’t expect you to take the open ones.

 

[mauconnfan]

Oregon is big very big. Adama will not have it easy at all. May struggle if he tries to do too much. Will need our shooters to be on.

And with this we will need him to not force anything and on occasion pass the ball back out. Can’t be a black hole night, find open people.

 

[husky429]

My guess is they shoot better in practice, like we let Brendan Adams fire away for the same reason. It’s also still a sorta small sample size. Hawkins is shooting a solid 38%, but I think we’re all fine with him taking 10+ 3s per game.

I think it would be malpractice by our coaches and the players on this team if we aren't getting Jordan 8-10 shots a game from deep, with at least a few being from the corners. I'd like to see 4-5 a game from Karaban and Alleyne each as well. Depending on how much Joey California plays, he should get reps too. Karaban, Hawkins, and Joey C in particular I want to be letting the ball fly at will when they're open--no hesitation. Alleyne has yet to prove it at UConn but if his shooting regresses to the mean, he'll be a green light shooter too.

Diarra, Sanogo, Jackson should be a bit more conservative with their shooting, but still need to be getting their reps. 1-2 per game. Newton should get 3-4 per game.

That would put us at 26 shots per game... Overall I'd like to see around 25 shots from deep per game on average. If we distribute those shot attempts well and take good shots, I think being one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country is doable.

 

[auror]

I think it would be malpractice by our coaches and the players on this team if we aren't getting Jordan 8-10 shots a game from deep, with at least a few being from the corners. I'd like to see 4-5 a game from Karaban and Alleyne each as well. Depending on how much Joey California plays, he should get reps too. Karaban, Hawkins, and Joey C in particular I want to be letting the ball fly at will when they're open--no hesitation. Alleyne has yet to prove it at UConn but if his shooting regresses to the mean, he'll be a green light shooter too.

Diarra, Sanogo, Jackson should be a bit more conservative with their shooting, but still need to be getting their reps. 1-2 per game. Newton should get 3-4 per game.

That would put us at 26 shots per game... Overall I'd like to see around 25 shots from deep per game on average. If we distribute those shot attempts well and take good shots, I think being one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country is doable.

To put it another way, I'd like to see Hawkins taking quick and/or contested 3s. I want Calcaterra, Alleyne and Karaban taking rhythm catch and shoot 3s even if lightly contested. I want Newton to take 3s when they go under. I want Sanogo, Diarra, and Jackson shooting when wide open.

 

[husky429]

To put it another way, I'd like to see Hawkins taking quick and/or contested 3s. I want Calcaterra, Alleyne and Karaban taking rhythm catch and shoot 3s even if lightly contested. I want Newton to take 3s when they go under. I want Sanogo, Diarra, and Jackson shooting when wide open.

Hawkins strikes me as one of those guys that shoots better when contested. It's weird, it makes no sense, but it happens.

 

[Palatine]

Yeah but when you're an upperclassmen the sample size is probably not so small. Using the OP's data....

Rivaldo Soares is a senior. He's a career 25.3% 3 point shooter and half of his shots this season are from three (at a 16.7% clip).

Keeshawn Barthelemy is a junior. He's a career 32.7% 3 point shooter and 2/3 of his shots this season are from three (at a 27.3% clip).

Quincy Guerrier is a senior. He's a career 29.8% 3 point shooter and 60% of his shots this season are from three (at a 22.2% clip).

These 3 don't seem like they've been good career 3 point shooters. But this season they are shooting less than their career averages.

Richardson, Bittle and Ware seem fine from three.

Nice post, excellent info.

The key to maintaining those numbers will be contesting the three point line. Three point shooting percentages go up when you have good looks and little pressure. Remember Hurley letting the Villanova suppar trey shooters have wide open threes? They killed us.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Hawkins strikes me as one of those guys that shoots better when contested. It's weird, it makes no sense, but it happens.

No time to think about it. When you are completely all alone level wide open it can be hard to focus.

Not too worried about this other than that it's the first decent team we've played. Wish we had Johnson, it would be a good matchup for him. Still think we will simply swarm them, wear them down and pull away. I expect our identity to be "relentless" on both ends this year, a team that never stops coming at you.

 

[elmcityboy]

on the jon rothstein podcast today, hurley talked about how he and the coaches were excited to put together lineups with sanogo, johnson, AND karaban all playing together. if johnson were healthy, this game might have been an opportunity to run that lineup out for a few minutes.

that being said, i am really excited to watch our "small" guards run guys like guerrier, ware, and bittle around screens. think we can rebound and shoot well-enough to tilt the mismatch to our advantage. the intriguing thing is that they don't seem to have a good way to downsize without leaving their best players on the bench.

 

[Umami Zen]

This year's team is getting the ball to Hawk in his spots consistently.. He's getting looks at "good" threes. He's also doing a better job (than last year) of sharing the ball. Great to see

 

[Kenny11]

I love how Hawk used the Delaware st game to get his reps in from 3 lol

 

[freescooter]

Seriously, people don’t have this one in their win column? Oregon is a very average team that is over-rated due to the fact that they are in a P5 conference. 2-2 with unimpressive wins, and one bad loss. Can’t fault a team for losing to Houston of course. They had no chance against the Cougars. Wow, they have tall player. Imagine that. A college basketball team has tall guys on it. What will they think of next? Of course we have no idea if UConn is any good or not. Hard to tell when you play opponents who are all ranked 200 or above. Well maybe one is in the 190s but you get the drift. Even with this, I can’t imagine losing to these jokers unless UConn missed their flight or something and has to send the cheerleaders out there.

 

[August_West]

I love how Hawk used the Delaware st game to get his reps in from 3 lol

Oh Hawk has the green light. They are telling him to hoist. He needs to check himself sometimes on time and circumstance, but I have no problem with the green light. He's a shooter.

 

[August_West]

Seriously, people don’t have this one in their win column? Oregon is a very average team that is over-rated due to the fact that they are in a P5 conference. 2-2 with unimpressive wins, and one bad loss. Can’t fault a team for losing to Houston of course. They had no chance against the Cougars. Wow, they have tall player. Imagine that. A college basketball team has tall guys on it. What will they think of next? Of course we have no idea if UConn is any good or not. Hard to tell when you play opponents who are all ranked 200 or above. Well maybe one is in the 190s but you get the drift. Even with this, I can’t imagine losing to these jokers unless UConn missed their flight or something and has to send the cheerleaders out there.

You are a single handed anti mojo machine

 

[Punkbo]

Seriously, people don’t have this one in their win column? Oregon is a very average team that is over-rated due to the fact that they are in a P5 conference. 2-2 with unimpressive wins, and one bad loss. Can’t fault a team for losing to Houston of course. They had no chance against the Cougars. Wow, they have tall player. Imagine that. A college basketball team has tall guys on it. What will they think of next? Of course we have no idea if UConn is any good or not. Hard to tell when you play opponents who are all ranked 200 or above. Well maybe one is in the 190s but you get the drift. Even with this, I can’t imagine losing to these jokers unless UConn missed their flight or something and has to send the cheerleaders out there.

Based on your analysis, it seems like the cheerleaders could beat Oregon.

 

[Sibeerian]

Boneyard physics: for every reaction there is an equal and negative reaction.