OK - Tournament Upsets, Cinderella Runs, Final Four. Put it Out There Now. | The Boneyard

OK - Tournament Upsets, Cinderella Runs, Final Four. Put it Out There Now.

jleves

jleves

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Don't claim that you had that pick after it happens - claim your brilliance now!
 
first round upsets (not including 8/9 or 7/10): South Florida over Louisville, N Dakota St over Michigan St, McNeese over Vanderbilt, Troy over Nebraska, VCU over UNC.

Deepest run for any team over a 9 seed: McNeese to the sweet 16, South Florida to the Sweet 16.

BYU to the final 4.

Final 4: UConn, Houston, BYU, Michigan
 
Akron to win. Hofstra over Bama. VCU to win. High Point can beat Wisconsin. South Florida over Louisville. VCU over UNC (not without Wilson).
 
Duke loses second round. South Florida makes sweet 16. Region opens up for UConn, hopefully we take advantage.
 
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I think Akron and S. Florida can do something. I’m rooting for USF for sure.
 
USF wins a game or two
Houston loses second round
McNeese over Vandy
Texas to Sweet 16
 
In this thread:

nelsonmuntz

Thread 'Inter-conference records among the majors'

There has been a lot of criticism of the Big East, including quite a few on this board comparing the league to a mid-major, so I put together this analysis

Below are the interconference records between the leagues (Updated for all games).
ACC​
Big East​
Big 10​
Big 12​
SEC​
ACC
5-4​
3-10​
15-11​
16-13​
Big East
4-5​
10-7​
7-7​
7-3​
...
  • Like

@auror explained that KenPom is the word of God. Since KenPom has this year’s SEC as the 5th best conference of the last 30 years, I have every SEC team winning until they play another SEC team.

If this strategy works, then I will give credit to @auror . If it doesn’t work, then I will have been proven right that the SEC teams gamed the efficiency ratings.
 
I will do a search of this site covering the first day of the tournament to the last day of the tournament. My prediction is breeding will appear 67 times.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
In this thread:

nelsonmuntz

Thread 'Inter-conference records among the majors'

There has been a lot of criticism of the Big East, including quite a few on this board comparing the league to a mid-major, so I put together this analysis

Below are the interconference records between the leagues (Updated for all games).
ACC​
Big East​
Big 10​
Big 12​
SEC​
ACC
5-4​
3-10​
15-11​
16-13​
Big East
4-5​
10-7​
7-7​
7-3​
...
  • Like

@auror explained that KenPom is the word of God. Since KenPom has this year’s SEC as the 5th best conference of the last 30 years, I have every SEC team winning until they play another SEC team.

If this strategy works, then I will give credit to @auror . If it doesn’t work, then I will have been proven right that the SEC teams gamed the efficiency ratings.
Expand ...
As seen in that thread, don't pick Kentucky, A&M, or Missouri. (Though Missouri does get to play at home, which is nice).
 
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I am not picturing many upsets or Cinderella runs. I have VCU and South Florida winning their first round matchups.
 
Furman over ....

JUST KIDDING.

Ok, for real, I think Vanderbilt could go down. I think Hofstra will take out Alabama. Missouri could win a few games, and if Nova gets past the first game, I think they will give Arizona fits in a close one. UCF over UCLA.
 
Last edited:
Here are mine:
  • Santa Clara in the Sweet Sixteen (not really that big of an upset)
  • South Florida in the Sweet Sixteen (not really that big of an upset)
  • Akron to the Sweet Sixteen
  • Cal Baptist over Kansas (Dominique Daniels is an electric dynamo and he's surrounded by a big, physical team that is great on defense)
  • UConn over St. John's in the Elite Eight (I mean, c'mon)
  • Vanderbilt to the Elite 8
  • Illinois and Virginia to the Final Four.
  • My only chalky Sweet Sixteen: West Bracket (Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga, Arkansas)
 
Last edited:
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My flier of the day. 6 legger. 10 to win 580.

Ohio St ML
USF +4.5
High Pt +10.5
McNeese +12.5
VCU ML
St Louis ML
 
Draftkings has a neat promotion where if you pick an upset, and they're the highest seed to advance today, you get a share of bonus bets.

I went with (13)Troy over Nebraska. I don't really see any bigger upsets than that, and I think Nebraska has fallen off since their undefeated start.
 
auror said:
As seen in that thread, don't pick Kentucky, A&M, or Missouri. (Though Missouri does get to play at home, which is nice).
Expand ...

How can that be unless KenPom’s model was systematically gamed by SEC teams to inflate their efficiency ratings? Hold on, are you saying that I was right?
 
I don’t have a lot because I’m really leaning into chalk this year. But I have:

BYU to the sweet 16. Yes I know half their roster is injured. In AJ we trust. And in Gonzaga/Purdue we don’t trust

High Point/Hofstra to the R32
 
nelsonmuntz said:
How can that be unless KenPom’s model was systematically gamed by SEC teams to inflate their efficiency ratings? Hold on, are you saying that I was right?
Expand ...
Re-read my posts in that thread. I mentioned those 3 teams as having performed a lot better against weaker teams than stronger teams. There were other teams in the SEC that did the opposite. There was nothing systemic or intentional about it.
 
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My niece goes to Miami-Ohio and my brother (her father- who also went to UConn and is a Husky fan too) have had me up to date on Red Hawks ball all year. My question is this;

Do they fit the traditional Cinderella mold?

I say no. If they make the sweet sixteen that will be the narrative but imo Cinderella is a story not a tag. They have been a high profile team all year. The most high profile mid major coming into the tourney (besides GU)
I dont think you can be called a Cinderella if you were ranked nationally.
Also, they made the tourney after the losing first round of your conference tourney. A good story?yes. Cinderella? I dont think so. Step above your traditional Cinderella.
 
I think you can be a high profile cinderella. A cinderella is just a low seeded underdog, especially one with less resources than bigger schools. Doesn't have to be a team that came out of nowhere.
 
I have Santa Clara and South Florida to the Sweet 16, Troy over Nebraska, Texas over BYU, and VCU over UNC Rd 1.

I won't pick them to win, but I think Iowa could give Florida a heck of a game in Rd 2 due to their slow pace. Also wouldn't be surprised if Penn gives Illinois a game in Rd 1 if Power is full strength since Fran obviously knows Underwood well.

I would love to see UNI beat St. John's to set up another UNI vs. Kansas game after the 2010 Farokmanesh shot, but I just don't see UNI being able to get shots against SJU unless the refs are willing to foul out half the Johnnies lineup.
 
Jaydumo20 said:
My niece goes to Miami-Ohio and my brother (her father- who also went to UConn and is a Husky fan too) have had me up to date on Red Hawks ball all year. My question is this;

Do they fit the traditional Cinderella mold?

I say no. If they make the sweet sixteen that will be the narrative but imo Cinderella is a story not a tag. They have been a high profile team all year. The most high profile mid major coming into the tourney (besides GU)
I dont think you can be called a Cinderella if you were ranked nationally.
Also, they made the tourney after the losing first round of your conference tourney. A good story?yes. Cinderella? I dont think so. Step above your traditional Cinderella.
Expand ...
They were 7pt dogs to SMU. Definitely a Cinderella
 
REB1094 said:
I don’t have a lot because I’m really leaning into chalk this year. But I have:

BYU to the sweet 16. Yes I know half their roster is injured. In AJ we trust. And in Gonzaga/Purdue we don’t trust

High Point/Hofstra to the R32
Expand ...
I think there'll be a decent number of first rd upsets, but not many advancing much further. I have chalk in the Elite 8 and beyond.
 
auror said:
I think you can be a high profile cinderella. A cinderella is just a low seeded underdog, especially one with less resources than bigger schools. Doesn't have to be a team that came out of nowhere.
Expand ...
The resource piece qualifies them for sure. But the low seed is tricky. Texas, NC State recently wouldn't be called Cinderella despite their lower seed and success. I think a lot of it has to do with how saturated we are with p4 brand names. It's a good topic for debate regardless.
 
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