Ohtani gets 700M | The Boneyard

Ohtani gets 700M

I hate to say this, but if he can last most of the way through his contract then he's probably worth it. As a starting pitcher (except next season) he's probably worth $35-$40 million a year. As a position player and hitter he's worth 4/5 of about $40 million. So if you look at it that way he might be worth $70 million. But $700 million is a lot to risk on one guy. Imagine the cost of the insurance policy for that contract? Probably more than most guys make!
 
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HooperScooper said:
I hate to say this, but if he can last most of the way through his contract then he's probably worth it. As a starting pitcher (except next season) he's probably worth $35-$40 million a year. As a position player and hitter he's worth 4/5 of about $40 million. So if you look at it that way he might be worth $70 million. But $700 million is a lot to risk on one guy. Imagine the cost of the insurance policy for that contract? Probably more than most guys make!
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I guess they see the total cost of value greater than just His production on field. However, I do agree in the craziness of all that money tied into one asset/player.

Here is an article from July that speculated/predicted the $700 mm contract:
 
This past summer some of the alleged experts were saying that with what he brings to the table he could be worth what Judge is getting paid ($40mm per year) and what Cole is getting paid ($36mm per year).

This contract came pretty close, especially as there will be at a minimum a full year where he can't pitch.
 
MLB needs a hard salary cap baaaaaad. There will be about 6-10 healthy teams and a lot of teams like the Pirates the way things are trending. It’s only going to get worse.
 
Over the past 3 seasons, Ohtani has compiled 14.3 WAR batting and 14.3 WAR pitching. So 28.6 total, or an average of 8.9/year. He's not pitching next year. He's already 29, so the contract takes him through age 39. We should presume his performance will decline in at least the final 2-3 years of the contract.

But let's say it doesn't and he stays as productive as he is now. You'd get 8.9 WAR/year for 9 years and 4.4 in the other. That's a total of 84.5 WAR, or 8.45 per year, which is roughly equal to what 1 WAR was worth in 2022 for FAs.

So that's without any decline in performance or loss to injury over the next decade. It's a wash if everything works out perfectly and Ohtani finds the fountain of youth.

I think it's a pretty dumb contract. I could easily see Ohtani setting a record for $/AAV, but I don't think LAD should've gone much north of $500 mill for the term of this contract.
 
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storrsroars said:
Over the past 3 seasons, Ohtani has compiled 14.3 WAR batting and 14.3 WAR pitching. So 28.6 total, or an average of 8.9/year. He's not pitching next year. He's already 29, so the contract takes him through age 39. We should presume his performance will decline in at least the final 2-3 years of the contract.

But let's say it doesn't and he stays as productive as he is now. You'd get 8.9 WAR/year for 9 years and 4.4 in the other. That's a total of 84.5 WAR, or 8.45 per year, which is roughly equal to what 1 WAR was worth in 2022 for FAs.

So that's without any decline in performance or loss to injury over the next decade. It's a wash if everything works out perfectly and Ohtani finds the fountain of youth.

I think it's a pretty dumb contract. I could easily see Ohtani setting a record for $/AAV, but I don't think LAD should've gone much north of $500 mill for the term of this contract.
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If he has to shut it down as a pitcher after a few years, or even reverts to being "merely good" on the mound, that's an awful lot of money to be paying a Dan Hurley in 7-8 years, even accounting for how contracts will increase between now and then.
 
Luxury tax will be crazy
He's 29 years old. He'll be healthy for 5-6 years of the contract.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
If he has to shut it down as a pitcher after a few years, or even reverts to being "merely good" on the mound, that's an awful lot of money to be paying a Dan Hurley in 7-8 years, even accounting for how contracts will increase between now and then.
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I’m guessing if he ends up not being able to pitch at some point down the line he can switch to actually playing a position.
 
Ticket prices about to go through the figurative roof at Chavez Ravine. Bob Wolfe on the phone with the sponsorship department this afternoon: “Sell more signs!!!”
 
karstenkibbe said:
Ticket prices about to go through the figurative roof at Chavez Ravine. Bob Wolfe on the phone with the sponsorship department this afternoon: “Sell more signs!!!”
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I wonder if the VP sponsorship watched the Purdue/Bama game. Having "Discount Tires" on your playing field is not a great look, lol.
 
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It's always been a source of pain here in Pgh that multiple teams had a couple of players, who combined (like Judge and Cole), made more than the entire Pirates payroll. The Dodgers have raised the bar and can now do it with just one guy.
 
storrsroars said:
It's always been a source of pain here in Pgh that multiple teams had a couple of players, who combined (like Judge and Cole), made more than the entire Pirates payroll. The Dodgers have raised the bar and can now do it with just one guy.
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And they'll still lose.
 
lavuuk153 said:
I’m guessing if he ends up not being able to pitch at some point down the line he can switch to actually playing a position.
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Yeah but the Angels had a ton of Japanese sponsors. My guess is they’ll charge more than double for the LA market.
 
storrsroars said:
It's always been a source of pain here in Pgh that multiple teams had a couple of players, who combined (like Judge and Cole), made more than the entire Pirates payroll. The Dodgers have raised the bar and can now do it with just one guy.
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I'd place the bulk of the blame on Pirate's ownership.

There was a 5-6 year stretch that ended about a decade ago where the Pirates received more money in revenue sharing than they paid in payroll. They'd still be doing it if the WSJ article didn't expose that little scam to the rest of the world.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I'd place the bulk of the blame on Pirate's ownership.

There was a 5-6 year stretch that ended about a decade ago where the Pirates received more money in revenue sharing than they paid in payroll. They'd still be doing it if the WSJ article didn't expose that little scam to the rest of the world.
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I doubt anyone in Pgh would argue that. Payroll has been >$100 twice, so it's possible w/o making ticket prices too high for fans. But I doubt we'll ever see any payroll north of $125 mill.

There was actually a strange philosophy by our former GM, Neal Huntington, who said he'd never commit >20% of payroll to a single player. Pretty sure the largest contract AAV is still Francisco Liriano from 2013 or 14 at $13+mill.
 
Shohei Ohtani just signed the biggest sports contract in the history of pro sports. Messi was just at $674M with Shohei just beating it with $700M.

Perhaps it is a way to even it out after being paid way below the market with the Angels, but it is a huge investment with no opt outs.

I do believe Dodgers will earn this back easily just having all the Japanese companies paying for ads at the stadium, and getting Dodgers broadcasted all over the world. This is much more than just a baseball investment. They are basically all in on the Shohei brand. As someone who has watched Shohei a ton, he is just an amazing athlete that's second to none. He will bring many more eyeballs even to the Dodgers

Now if somehow we can get Shohei to contribute to the UConn football NIL fund
 
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His salary is more than 8 or 9 teams salary. How many seasons will he actually pitch in 10 years, as a starter or reliever? His arm won’t breakdown ( it already has) . 70 million at age 37,38, and 39? Insane.
 
jibsey said:
His salary is more than 8 or 9 teams salary. How many seasons will he actually pitch in 10 years, as a starter or reliever? His arm won’t breakdown ( it already has) . 70 million at age 37,38, and 39? Insane.
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If he pitches for 5 years and hits for 10 years is that really that much more than they would have paid a Bryce Harper and top pitcher this year? Neither of those add the media rights of an entire country or the advertising. I am shocked at the amount but I don’t think these are people that make a lot of bad investments. You’d think after the many contracts the Yankees have had that seemed to go bust that they wouldn’t sign an often injured Judge for 300 million or trade for Soto after we just signed a pitcher with Arthritis for over 150 million. But they keep making more money anyways. The Dodgers aren’t far from the Yankees of the west coast and will add even more international fans with this signing. All this for a league people argue is dying….

Japanese players have a pretty good track record of aging well.
I used to care and worry about when my team signed what I thought was a bad contract but I don’t anymore. They still make money, contracts are insured and it’s a risk they knew they were taking with lots of very high paid employees to evaluate it. If I buy tickets then show me something worth seeing.
 
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HooperScooper said:
I hate to say this, but if he can last most of the way through his contract then he's probably worth it. As a starting pitcher (except next season) he's probably worth $35-$40 million a year. As a position player and hitter he's worth 4/5 of about $40 million. So if you look at it that way he might be worth $70 million. But $700 million is a lot to risk on one guy. Imagine the cost of the insurance policy for that contract? Probably more than most guys make!
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You’re not wrong. I HIGHLY doubt he makes it all the way through that contract as a pitcher.
 
bfs3 said:
If he pitches for 5 years and hits for 10 years is that really that much more than they would have paid a Bryce Harper and top pitcher this year? Neither of those add the media rights of an entire country or the advertising. I am shocked at the amount but I don’t think these are people that make a lot of bad investments. You’d think after the many contracts the Yankees have had that seemed to go bust that they wouldn’t sign an often injured Judge for 300 million or trade for Soto after we just signed a pitcher with Arthritis for over 150 million. But they keep making more money anyways. The Dodgers aren’t far from the Yankees of the west coast and will add even more international fans with this signing. All this for a league people argue is dying….
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Does winning even matter anymore? Treating teams like hedge funds is just weird.
 
It makes me smile when I remember this, at the time, 10 year old baseball fans utter shock when the Yankees gave Dave Winfield his 10 year 10 million deal in 1980. A million per year to play ball?

Next thing you know, there will be a portable cassette player that comes with cheap headphones plugged in to listen to music wherever you go. What a world!

Except the battery cost to make it actually play the music, cut into my savings to fund my Wiffle ball addiction, forget the added cost for rolls of electrical tape to apply to the bats and balls. More lawns to mow, more sidewalks/driveways to shovel. At least packs of Topps were only 20¢!
 
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