Odds of winning the 2012 national championship

[meyers7]

Very good point. The Big 12 has had years when they had a lot of teams in the tourney and very few had good success.

The Big East typically performs better in the tourney than the Big 12 does. I don't have stats on that...just seems to be the case based on watching the results each year.

Win/lost percentages of the leagues in NCAA tourney. I didn't do 2010 for some reason???

2011
Big East .679
Pac 10 .667
Big 12 .647
ACC .600
SEC .600
Big 10 .500

2009
Pac 10 .750
Big East .714
Big 12 .667
Big 10 .615
ACC .571
SEC .462

 

[UcMiami]

Cardfan - no need to defend Tara and Stanford's record to me. I do think it is good to have at least one and better two competitive teams in your conference or your team can get complacent and may stop listening to the coach - with Tara and a good mix of upper classmen, that doesn't apply to Stanford.
On conference win percentages - I never pay much attention to them - a conference getting 8 teams in, is always going to have a hard time keeping a high win percentage vs. a conference that gets a couple of good teams in. The bottom half of the 8 teams in are likely to have about a .400 win percentage at best and that drags down whatever the top half does

 

[meyers7]

Cardfan - no need to defend Tara and Stanford's record to me. I do think it is good to have at least one and better two competitive teams in your conference or your team can get complacent and may stop listening to the coach - with Tara and a good mix of upper classmen, that doesn't apply to Stanford.
On conference win percentages - I never pay much attention to them - a conference getting 8 teams in, is always going to have a hard time keeping a high win percentage vs. a conference that gets a couple of good teams in. The bottom half of the 8 teams in are likely to have about a .400 win percentage at best and that drags down whatever the top half does

You may want to pay attention. 2011, Big East had 9 teams and still had the highest percentage. They had 7 in 2009 and had 2nd highest. It's how well the conference does in the tourney. Doesn't necessarily matter how many teams are in it. (although a good run by 1 team can offset a little bit a small contingency).

 

[UcMiami]

You may want to pay attention. 2011, Big East had 9 teams and still had the highest percentage. They had 7 in 2009 and had 2nd highest. It's how well the conference does in the tourney. Doesn't necessarily matter how many teams are in it. (although a good run by 1 team can offset a little bit a small contingency).

All I am saying is what happens in the first round for a conference with 8 teams can have a huge difference in win percentage - generally you don't expect much out of teams 3-8 in such instances. If they go 0 fer, what your top two teams do is not going to move the needle much unless they both make the finals. In that case the conference record would still just be 11/7 - .611 and if they bost lost in the semis it would be 8/8 - .500 - but still a pretty good year for your conference with two teams at the FF.

 

[meyers7]

All I am saying is what happens in the first round for a conference with 8 teams can have a huge difference in win percentage - generally you don't expect much out of teams 3-8 in such instances. If they go 0 fer, what your top two teams do is not going to move the needle much unless they both make the finals. In that case the conference record would still just be 11/7 - .611 and if they bost lost in the semis it would be 8/8 - .500 - but still a pretty good year for your conference with two teams at the FF.

Not really if all the other teams go 0 fer. That's kinda the point percentages show you.