I get what you are saying. And I agree that’s what the recruit is likely to believe. We are just poiting out that it’s a foolish choice because they sit the bench, get beat up in practice and are not being evaluated as a game rep player at the next level.
Again, I’m not disagreeing with you all in terms of the choice a kid is likely going to make.
You're creating a straw man here. I refuse to accept the premise/assumption that if you're a 3-star athlete you're nailed to the bench just because there are guys rated higher by the scouts. Who's rating is more credible, Nick Saban's or Scout.com's?
Unless he's a QB, K or P, if he cracks the 2 deep, he'll see game time. If he's not good enough to crack the 2-deep, he's probably not good enough for the NFL.
For scalitos and giggles I looked at the 2014-2017 Bama classes. 15 total. More guys became starters than ended up transferring. Most guys got PT. 1 never enrolled, 3 were JuCos, and 3 transferred (2 P5, and 1G5)..
2014 They had four 3-stars. One was the #1 JuCo TE in the country, and played 2 years. One is now their starting punter, one is no longer on the roster (transferred to Minnesota), and the other never enrolled (went Juco).
2015: Four 3-stars. 1 transferred to Wisconsin, 1 was a JuCo who was dismissed for domestic violence, one is a RS Soph ST specialist who saw time as a RS soph, and played in every game in 2016, the last one was the starting right tackle as an RS sophomore last year.
2016: Seven 3-stars. 1 transferred to WVU, 1 (TE) played in 15 games as a true freshman, but saw his time drop last year. 1 played as a true freshman and played in all but 2 games in 2016 (missed 2 due to injury). 1 was a JuCo and was in the rotation on the DL last year. Another (TE) played in 12 games (3 starts) in 2016, and also played as a true frosh. 1 transferred to UCF. The last one played as a RS freshman, and started last year as a RS sophomore.
You can't simply conclude all of these three star guys will be nailed to the bench. Most of them either play, if they don't, they leave. You've got 3-star guys who earned starting time at RB, TE, and OT. A special-teamer who plays every game. A couple JuCos who played TE and DL, and a few guys who transferred to P5, or the best G5 program in the country right now. You'll never convince me taking your a chance to play at Bama, only to transfer to UCF, Minnesota, or Wisconsin, means you and your family made a huge mistake.
Would some of those guys get more time elsewhere? Maybe. But they're playing at Bama. They'll get evaluated by scouts who understand what that means. They'll get camp invites. They'll have a pro day. If they don't get drafted, you can't just assume they would have if they went a different route. And most importantly: They. Played. At. Bama.