Now that Christmas is over....

[Exit 4]

This thread is bananas. While it is possible that a 3* prospect might expect to see more playing time day one going to Tulsa instead of Oklahoma, or Temple instead of Penn State, if all things are equal 99 out of 100 times they are taking the perceived bigger name offer. Wherever you go you are going to have to compete. Most kids won't shy from that competition. While making The NFL is likely the stated goal for most P5/G5 Prospects, the reality is that most won't even sniff an opportunity at the league. Knowing this most kids are going to take the chance to play for the bigger programs competing on the biggest stages. Go to USF and play in front of 15,000 people in an empty pro stadium against East Carolina on a Thursday Night, or go to UF and play against UGA in front of 85,000 fans at The Cocktail Party? It isn't that hard of a choice for the average 17 year old.

In a nutshell, when you are not a top 50 program, you have to find additional reasons for prospects to seriously consider your football opportunity vs others. That is what we are doing here. Many kids that could have started for 3 years at UConn ended up playing 50 snaps at and never furthered their development. Meanwhile the 3 year UConn kid developed into an NFL prospect. Basically one kid started out as a C- student and became an A student thanks to reps while the other started as a B+ and graduated as a B+ because of a lack of reps.

Yes as you point out, for many its about so much more than NFL opportunities - I get that. Most of the top 20 or so programs do offer a lifetime of brotherhood (both with the players and the alumni) that is unique and strong which may outlast any short taste of the NFL. Yes, there is much to consider.

 

[Hornet22]

This thread is bananas. While it is possible that a 3* prospect might expect to see more playing time day one going to Tulsa instead of Oklahoma, or Temple instead of Penn State, if all things are equal 99 out of 100 times they are taking the perceived bigger name offer. Wherever you go you are going to have to compete. Most kids won't shy from that competition. While making The NFL is likely the stated goal for most P5/G5 Prospects, the reality is that most won't even sniff an opportunity at the league. Knowing this most kids are going to take the chance to play for the bigger programs competing on the biggest stages. Go to USF and play in front of 15,000 people in an empty pro stadium against East Carolina on a Thursday Night, or go to UF and play against UGA in front of 85,000 fans at The Cocktail Party? It isn't that hard of a choice for the average 17 year old.

Appreciate the insight. We already know this and that point was misinterpreted and haggled over for days. We’re all good now.

 

[Hornet22]

In a nutshell, when you are not a top 50 program, you have to find additional reasons for prospects to seriously consider your football opportunity vs others. That is what we are doing here. Many kids that could have started for 3 years at UConn ended up playing 50 snaps at and never furthered their development. Meanwhile the 3 year UConn kid developed into an NFL prospect. Basically one kid started out as a C- student and became an A student thanks to reps while the other started as a B+ and graduated as a B+ because of a lack of reps.

Yes as you point out, for many its about so much more than NFL opportunities - I get that. Most of the top 20 or so programs do offer a lifetime of brotherhood (both with the players and the alumni) that is unique and strong which may outlast any short taste of the NFL. Yes, there is much to consider.

Preach brother!
Btw I know in my very first posts on this thread I stressed all of this from a purely football perspective. I know there are other factors that drive a kid’s college decision.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

What it comes down to for many kids is they would need to decide if they would be better served as the 18th-20th recruit at an Alabama or Ohio St or the top recruit at a lower profile school.

The problem lower profile schools have is that 90% of those kids believe that once they can compete head to head in practice they'll show the staff that they are in fact much better than tgbe 18th-20th best recruit in that class. When they find out differently is what leads to many transfers.

 

[Ldandy]

What it comes down to for many kids is they would need to decide if they would be better served as the 18th-20th recruit at an Alabama or Ohio St or the top recruit at a lower profile school.

The problem lower profile schools have is that 90% of those kids believe that once they can compete head to head in practice they'll show the staff that they are in fact much better than tgbe 18th-20th best recruit in that class. When they find out differently is what leads to many transfers.

This is definitely true IMO. Most high level athletes, and I'll include kids that walk on at P5/G5 programs, come to campus with a strong sense of self belief. Back in HS they dominated their local competition creating a confidence that they can compete and possibly get on the field at the school of their choosing. Coaches reaffirm this belief during recruiting by telling kids exactly what they want to hear.

When Urban Meyer is sitting in a kid's living room telling them that he thinks they are a great player and that they have a scholarship to OSU, most kids aren't going to think about the fact that they are the 20th rated kid in his class. It won't matter if at Cincinnati he could be the second. He's going to imagine playing in front of 100,000 fans in The Shoe against Michigan. Sure some kids like Oliver at UH buck this trend to play at home, but they are far and few between.Unfortunately that's what the G5 is up against.

 

[BlueMAB]

There continues to be way too much speculation about 3-star players being nailed to the bench.

I would just like to remind everyone that over three years (2014-2017), Bama took fifteen 3-star players. 3 were JuCos who played and 1 went JuCo and never enrolled. Of the 11 freshmen 3-star recruits, 4 became starters, 3 transferred out, and the rest saw some playing time, including one who played every game as a special teamer.

All of those who stayed and played, saw the field by the time they were RS Sophomores. A couple played as freshman, one played as a true freshman.

Based on the above, if you're a 3 star player coming out of HS recruited to Bama, you're more likely to end up a starter than you are to transfer out.

And we don't know why those guys transferred out, could have been PT, could have been academics, or any number of reasons.