Now 28 in Kenpom

[navery12]

But not nearly as many as 10s vs 5s. 5 if the dreaded spot.

That said, none of the seeding will be remotely good this year. Not enough non conference games. Nobody has any idea who is better among those teams in Kenpom 10-35 or so. Teams are just going to have to win against whoever they play. It's even bad for high seeds. A 1 or 2 may face a wildly underseeded team in round 2.

You would think so but 5 seeds against 12 seeds actually have a higher winner percentage (107-53, .669) than 6 over 11 (102-58, .638). I would have guessed 12 seed but there actually are more 11 seed upsets

 

[superjohn]

I wonder what the Big East or ACC look like under this situation. I'm guessing not that great either.

Nova's best OOC win is against Texas. The other two P5 wins are against non tourney teams. Also lost to VT.
Creighton's OOC is also a ghostown. A loss to Kansas and a win against Nebraska.
UConn has USC, who is currently 3 in the PAC
Seton Hall has nothing but meh losses and Xavier has the OU win, roughly like the Texas one.

I didn't bother to try with the ACC or B12, but I wonder if they'd look that difference.

Yes but everyone knows the ACC and Big East are down this season, people are hyping Big 10 like it's some all-time great conference this season. The way I see it the BIg 10 has dominant bigs but very little in terms of great guard play outside of Ayo.

 

[auror]

@auror you gave an excellent answer that doesn't actually square with the facts about the Big 10. For the following reasons the system being relied on is bull... Please consider.
1. The Big 10 league record is 17-14 vs quality conferences IF you include A10 teams - else 14-14
2. Zero wins vs any Big 12, SEC, or top Big East Teams
3. As a league, only 5 wins against teams that are in the top 5 of their own power conferences (2 A10)
4. Excluding the A10 the league only has 3 wins vs teams that are top 5 in their power conferences
5. All the Big 10 ncaa tournament teams combined only have 2 wins vs major conference teams that are in the top 5 of their own conferences against their own peers. TWO. (non tourney Penn State beat Virg Tech)
6. In essence The Big 10 is all powerful on the national stage because they beat a 6 loss UCLA team and a 5 loss Louisville team. UCLA and Louisville are the only 2 teams any of these Big 10 powerhouses have beaten.
7. The Big 10 is 0-8 vs out of conference power conference teams they played that were part of the top 32 teams in Lunardi's bracket last week. Zero

Here is the detail of their 17 great wins by the conference:
vs ACC
Virginia Tech - 3rd place but victory by Penn St not in ncaa field
Louisville - 4th place 5 losses
North Carolina - 6th place in own conference play
Duke 2 wins - 8th place in own conference play, ie not as good as other conference teams
Syracuse - 9th place
Notre Dame 3 wins - 11th place
BC - 14th place
vs Pac 12
UCLA 1st place – Best OOC Win but a 6 loss team
Stanford - 6th place in own conference
vs Big East
Providence - 7th place
Butler - 9th place
vs A10
VCU - 2nd place
St Louis - 4th place
Rhode Island - 10th place

After this murderer's row it is clear to me why they are the unquestioned best conference. NOT.

The point is that you said the B1G has manipulated the ratings. They didn't manipulate anything. It worked out in their favor. There's no malicious plot. It's just that we thought they'd be good heading into the season (Garza back, Ayo + Kofi back, Wisconsin returned everybody, Indiana returned Trayce, Rutgers has their best team in a while, Mich and OSU had talent, MSU still has Izzo and experience, etc.) and then as a conference had the best nonconf win% while playing the most combined games of any of the conferences.

I agree many of those wins came against mediocre teams, but they didn't really have any bad losses, either. The conference's worst loss in the nonconf is to like Pitt at home or @Miami. I think the conference has 1 out of high major loss (to Nevada, by Nebraska, who are both in the 90s in KenPom). I think all the rest of the conferences losses are Q1 or Q2.

The Big East also doesn't really have many bad losses (thank goodness Depaul only played 2 non-conf games). But played a lot fewer games overall (something like 25 fewer nonconf games). And was expected to have a down year after having major talent drain... and has had a down year.

So if anything, we're the surest about the quality of the B1G than we are about any of the conferences. We thought they'd be good, and they played pretty good. They've got 6 teams in the top 25 on KenPom. Is that even worth getting worked up about? That seems about right.

 

[Jbirdp5]

How exactly do you think "optics" help computer rankings?

The computers have less data input (both games and diversity of opponent) making their rankings not as much of sure thing as your used to.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

At this point, I am pretty confident we are in the tournament.

There are too many unknowns at this moment due to the lack of inter-conference matches, so it is hard to gauge which conference is strong or weak, etc.

At this point, I don't even care about where we are seeded. I doubt too many teams want to see us on the other side. We are capable of beating anyone, and we are also capable of losing to anyone. With Bouk healthy, I like to think we can beat anyone so let's just bring them all on.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Is there anyway to segment out the games w/ Bouknight and w/o and rerun the analysis and Net/BPI/etc rankings?

We will not be judged really on the 8 games w/o bouk, but rather the resume WITH him in the lineup. I have to imagine this gives us a measurable bump in seed by the committee, as its such a well-known and publicized fact now.

Without those 8 games, UConn is 8-2, but then has to win Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Round 1 BET, just to get to the required 13 games to qualify for the NCAA Tourney.

But seriously, the only team currently rated higher in NET, BPI, and KenPom that has played as few games as UConn is Florida State. 12 wins just doesn't seem like a lot, so gotta just keep winning.

In addition to the already noted record without Bouknight, and the several larger margin road wins, I add that there isn't a single victory where a credible, "We should have won that" claim could be made by opposing fans.

By contrast, the missed foul shots that could have iced the Creighton home game, and the handwringing over the decision to match up with St. John's' small ball instead of riding Sanogo's flashed dominance have given colorable claim that a win or two might have been left on the table.

Yep, keep winning...

 

[uconnbill]

Just win baby

I want the Huskies in the Big Dance and that will happen if they do what they need to do. They need one win out of the next two and then one in the Big East to secure IMHO. Still would like a win the next two and make a run the Big East tourney

 

[Jbirdp5]

I mean, again, their performance in the postseason as a conference doesn't back up this. Take a look at the B12 performance for a contrast, and I don't buy that a Mario Chalmers prayer going in is the difference between conferences' two decades' performances.

You want to call them both disappointing go ahead. I don’t think saying someone else is also over rated makes them much better.

 

[auror]

I wonder what the Big East or ACC look like under this situation. I'm guessing not that great either.

I just went through all the teams in the top 25+ of KenPom looking at their non-conference losses. 6 had none.

Do you know which conference has the most non-conference wins over top 25 teams? The WCC. Because Gonzaga has 4 on its own, which would tie the next best conference all by itself. Basically all the conferences have 1-4 such wins a piece.

WCC-N-Iowa, N-Virginia, N-Virginia, N-Kansas, N-West Virginia, @SDSU
ACC- N-Alabama, N-Villanova, N-Purdue, Purdue
SEC- Illinois, Kansas, @West Virginia,
Big12- N-Illinois, Creighton, Arkansas
B1G- Loyola Chicago
Big East- Wisconsin, N-USC, @Texas
Pac12- N-Alabama, Tennessee, N-BYU
CUSA - @Alabama
AAC- @FSU, N-Texas Tech
A10 - N-Loyola Chicago
MWC - @BYU

It should be noted that the SEC/Big 12 challenge still happened this year, and the SEC got 2 of its wins there and Big12 got one. Whereas the Gavitt games for Big East/Big Ten were cancelled and the Big Ten/ACC challenge only 1 ACC team in the top 25 was available/not canceled (and through poor scheduling for B1G they ended up playing the 9th best B1G school at home). Though at the time the ACC had 5 teams ranked and the B1G beat 4/5 of them. They just all turned out to be mediocre in the end (UNC, Duke, Va Tech, Louisville).

 

[businesslawyer]

The computers have less data input (both games and diversity of opponent) making their rankings not as much of sure thing as your used to.

That statement is absolutely correct. But it has nothing to do with optics. It has to do with computer ranking systems having been designed for a normal season, and this very abnormal season unsurprisingly rendering them a much less important tool.

 

[Jbirdp5]

That statement is absolutely correct. But it has nothing to do with optics. It has to do with computer ranking systems having been designed for a normal season, and this very abnormal season unsurprisingly rendering them a much less important tool.

Fair enough, it just seems like for whatever reason the league is overvalued and maybe the optics are because of that not the other way around.

 

[billybud]

KenPom 3-2-2021............The B1G is stacked in KenPom

Top 10 KenPom in each conference: (by KenPom ranking)

B1G......B12.....SEC.....ACC......BE
2............3.........8...........9...........10
5............18.......17.........15.........14
6............19.......24........ 30.........28
7............23.......27.........33.........43
11..........25.......29.........36.........55
13..........31.......48.........38.........69
26..........35.......54........ 44.........72
32..........125.....58.........46.........89
37..........129.....65.........60.........110
40..........159.....88.........66.........130