Now 28 in Kenpom

[Com'rGordon]

Sorry everyone I could’ve sworn they didn’t. My bad!

 

[Ts5034]

Lots of 11 over 6 upsets!

Yes, that is a popular upset, just like the 12 over 5. Im just looking at it like...with Bouknight, we are a top 25 team, and probably no worse than a 5 seed. Since he missed time, our entire body of work doesn’t reflect that, and It would most likely affect our seeding. So, even if we are on the 5-6 line, I like our chances of advancing in the early rounds because we are better than that.

 

[7774]

Sorry everyone I could’ve sworn they didn’t. My bad!

You’re basically correct. They have the Kenpom number available, but anytime anyone is talking about Quad 1/2/3/4 wins/losses, the Quad each game falls into is determined by the NET ranking, so it has a much larger influence than the other metrics.

Just like in the past they had all the computer metrics available but RPI is what really mattered.

 

[thatguyed]

Sunday update:

36 NET
28 Kenpom
30 BPI

Massey 39 before yesterday gets plugged in

 

[tzznandrew]

Lots of 11 over 6 upsets!

Outside of the 1-3 lines, lots of upsets across the board. Even a decent amount of 14-3s.

 

[tzznandrew]

You’re basically correct. They have the Kenpom number available, but anytime anyone is talking about Quad 1/2/3/4 wins/losses, the Quad each game falls into is determined by the NET ranking, so it has a much larger influence than the other metrics.

Just like in the past they had all the computer metrics available but RPI is what really mattered.

I'm hoping this year because of the dearth of OOC games NET and the quads are a bit de-emphasized. We'll see.

Otherwise, get ready for Colgate on the 3 line!

 

[CTBasketball]

Yes, that is a popular upset, just like the 12 over 5. Im just looking at it like...with Bouknight, we are a top 25 team, and probably no worse than a 5 seed. Since he missed time, our entire body of work doesn’t reflect that, and It would most likely affect our seeding. So, even if we are on the 5-6 line, I like our chances of advancing in the early rounds because we are better than that.

True. I think in any situation we will be underseeded and a bad matchup for any team in the first two rounds.

 

[Jbirdp5]

Yes, that is a popular upset, just like the 12 over 5. Im just looking at it like...with Bouknight, we are a top 25 team, and probably no worse than a 5 seed. Since he missed time, our entire body of work doesn’t reflect that, and It would most likely affect our seeding. So, even if we are on the 5-6 line, I like our chances of advancing in the early rounds because we are better than that.

Agree, we want the best seed possible more so than worrying about the traditional upset spots. 5 and 6 to me are great spots avoiding those top 2 seeds until the second weekend.

 

[UconnFanDC]

Anyone else read it as Kenporn? I see it that way every time. lol!

Always

 

[Waquoit]

I agree with @businesslawyer. We can get to a 6 seed, where I see us making the Sweet 16 with the right draw. Still business to do.

I think we can make the FF with right draw.

 

[auror]

Here's our current teamsheet if anyone is curious

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org

 

[VAHuskyFan]

Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.

Can’t vouch for the algorithm, but found this projection site interesting:

Connecticut Huskies

They have us at 92% to make the tournament, most likely as an 8/9.

They even give a seeding probability curve:

They also show the odds of making the tournament by total wins. If we lose every game from here out, we’re likely out, but if we win just one more, our chances jump to 84%. Two wins makes us a lock at 98%. They show win totals up to 17, so I assume this includes the BE Tournament.

Bottom line is we’re likely one win away from punching our ticket, and 2-3 wins from moving up off the 8-9 line.

 

[Jbirdp5]

Here's our current teamsheet if anyone is curious

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org

I thought they factored in the other rating systems besides net as well. Figured those would also be on our team sheet.

 

[navery12]

I thought they factored in the other rating systems besides net as well. Figured those would also be on our team sheet.

They have more info like that on the team sheet the committee gets, but those aren't made public until after Selection Sunday

 

[BFieldHusky]

I love that someone incorrectly says they don't use Kenpom and @Tenspro2002 likes the post. Are you even a Uconn fan bro? Seriously.

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

And 32 in Sagarins.

Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.

Where did you see that? When I checked just now they were 28th in Sagarin. 26th in his predictive component. 19th in recently played games. All very good signs.

 

[businesslawyer]

Where did you see that? When I checked just now they were 28th in Sagarin. 26th in his predictive component. 19th in recently played games. All very good signs.

That's what it showed when I looked at it. I have no idea how often or when they change it.

 

[king conn]

Bpi is 28 not 30.

One thing the committee strongly considers which isn't getting any mention is road record, which looks great in our case.

 

[UconnU]

And 32 in Sagarins.

Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.

Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.

 

[auror]

I thought they factored in the other rating systems besides net as well. Figured those would also be on our team sheet.

Yeah as Navery said, I think this is actually more the NET nitty gritty. It's labeled team sheet but looks a little different than the committee ones from the past.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I love that someone incorrectly says they don't use Kenpom and @Tenspro2002 likes the post. Are you even a Uconn fan bro? Seriously.

I appreciated the info.

If I knew it was wrong, I wouldn't have had to ask in the first place.

 

[Kemba15]

Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.

We have beaten two tournament teams. Xavier is in as of now

 

[RayRay]

Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.

We are going to annihilate Seton Hall, Mark my words, betting the farm on it.

 

[SportsFan88]

My dream is to be the 6 or 7 seed to Houston’s 2. I think one of the things that helped us in 2014 was the familiarity of opponents. The whole team had beaten Florida, and our key players had experience beating Kentucky and Villanova. Plenty of experience at MSG - I think that really helped the team. Think our team would be incredibly comfortable playing against Houston.

Great points

 

[XLCenterFan]

Agreed.

Lundardi moved us to the top of his last 4 byes.

Palm still has us as an 8.

I agree with @businesslawyer. We can get to a 6 seed, where I see us making the Sweet 16 with the right draw. Still business to do.

Does winning the BE get us to a 4 or 5?