Now 28 in Kenpom | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Now 28 in Kenpom

7774 said:
You’re basically correct. They have the Kenpom number available, but anytime anyone is talking about Quad 1/2/3/4 wins/losses, the Quad each game falls into is determined by the NET ranking, so it has a much larger influence than the other metrics.

Just like in the past they had all the computer metrics available but RPI is what really mattered.
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I'm hoping this year because of the dearth of OOC games NET and the quads are a bit de-emphasized. We'll see.

Otherwise, get ready for Colgate on the 3 line!
 
Ts5034 said:
Yes, that is a popular upset, just like the 12 over 5. Im just looking at it like...with Bouknight, we are a top 25 team, and probably no worse than a 5 seed. Since he missed time, our entire body of work doesn’t reflect that, and It would most likely affect our seeding. So, even if we are on the 5-6 line, I like our chances of advancing in the early rounds because we are better than that.
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True. I think in any situation we will be underseeded and a bad matchup for any team in the first two rounds.
 
Ts5034 said:
Yes, that is a popular upset, just like the 12 over 5. Im just looking at it like...with Bouknight, we are a top 25 team, and probably no worse than a 5 seed. Since he missed time, our entire body of work doesn’t reflect that, and It would most likely affect our seeding. So, even if we are on the 5-6 line, I like our chances of advancing in the early rounds because we are better than that.
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Agree, we want the best seed possible more so than worrying about the traditional upset spots. 5 and 6 to me are great spots avoiding those top 2 seeds until the second weekend.
 
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businesslawyer said:
Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.
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Can’t vouch for the algorithm, but found this projection site interesting:

Connecticut Huskies

They have us at 92% to make the tournament, most likely as an 8/9.

They even give a seeding probability curve:

58B8F310-02B6-40B3-BF1F-10A37C032248.jpeg
They also show the odds of making the tournament by total wins. If we lose every game from here out, we’re likely out, but if we win just one more, our chances jump to 84%. Two wins makes us a lock at 98%. They show win totals up to 17, so I assume this includes the BE Tournament.

Bottom line is we’re likely one win away from punching our ticket, and 2-3 wins from moving up off the 8-9 line.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
I thought they factored in the other rating systems besides net as well. Figured those would also be on our team sheet.
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They have more info like that on the team sheet the committee gets, but those aren't made public until after Selection Sunday
 
businesslawyer said:
And 32 in Sagarins.

Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.
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Where did you see that? When I checked just now they were 28th in Sagarin. 26th in his predictive component. 19th in recently played games. All very good signs.
 
ScuderiaDiU said:
Where did you see that? When I checked just now they were 28th in Sagarin. 26th in his predictive component. 19th in recently played games. All very good signs.
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That's what it showed when I looked at it. I have no idea how often or when they change it.
 
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Bpi is 28 not 30.

One thing the committee strongly considers which isn't getting any mention is road record, which looks great in our case.
 
businesslawyer said:
And 32 in Sagarins.

Conclusion: we’re simply not a bubble team at the moment. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to keep winning. Doesn’t mean that 0-3 from here wouldn’t knock us out. But when you look at all those rankings, as well as the eye test, we are not a bubble team.

Besides making a run in the Big East tournament for its own sake, the goal for the tournament at this point is to try to move our ranking up to say a 6 seed, where we very well might be betting favorites to get to the second weekend.
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Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
I thought they factored in the other rating systems besides net as well. Figured those would also be on our team sheet.
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Yeah as Navery said, I think this is actually more the NET nitty gritty. It's labeled team sheet but looks a little different than the committee ones from the past.
 
UcannUconn said:
Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.
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We have beaten two tournament teams. Xavier is in as of now
 
UcannUconn said:
Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.
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We are going to annihilate Seton Hall, Mark my words, betting the farm on it.
 
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Brochacho said:
My dream is to be the 6 or 7 seed to Houston’s 2. I think one of the things that helped us in 2014 was the familiarity of opponents. The whole team had beaten Florida, and our key players had experience beating Kentucky and Villanova. Plenty of experience at MSG - I think that really helped the team. Think our team would be incredibly comfortable playing against Houston.
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Great points
 
BFieldHusky said:
Agreed.

Lundardi moved us to the top of his last 4 byes.

Palm still has us as an 8.

I agree with @businesslawyer. We can get to a 6 seed, where I see us making the Sweet 16 with the right draw. Still business to do.
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Does winning the BE get us to a 4 or 5?
 
ScuderiaDiU said:
Where did you see that? When I checked just now they were 28th in Sagarin. 26th in his predictive component. 19th in recently played games. All very good signs.
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I check Sagarin as well. This morning, Sunday, we're 28.
 
Wonder if we make it into the "other receiving votes" section of the top 25. We should. Was looking at it today. North Carolina is in that section. So is Xavier. What an odd year. We are not anywhere on the lost. Yet, I think most of us think we are a top 15 team. Oddly enough, I think many in the actual press feel the same. Very odd at this point in the season. Weeks before the tournament.
 
If Butler holds on vs Nova will our 2 wins get helped much? Up 10 now starting second half. Amazing that Creighton, Hall, and now Nova are having trouble with Butler while we dominated
 
Ricker said:
If Butler holds on vs Nova will our 2 wins get helped much? Up 10 now starting second half. Amazing that Creighton, Hall, and now Nova are having trouble with Butler while we dominated
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Might help a tiny bit on Kenpom but won’t help with quadrant wins.. They’ll likely stay in the quadrants they are in now.
 
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Ricker said:
If Butler holds on vs Nova will our 2 wins get helped much? Up 10 now starting second half. Amazing that Creighton, Hall, and now Nova are having trouble with Butler while we dominated
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They're at 131 in NET so unlikely, would have to move up to 75 to improve our quadrants. But they did move up 12 spots last night for some reason, so the away game is now a Q2 win
 
The ESPN+ comes with my Disney/Hulu package (would never pay for it on its own once UConn left the AAC). This is what they have to say after Marquette:

The Big East has struggled to produce solid at-large profiles outside of those belonging to Villanova and Creighton this season. Xavier, Seton Hall and St. John's all took turns as teams blessed by momentum, only to fall into greater or lesser degrees of bracket peril. But Connecticut might at last be joining the Wildcats and Bluejays as the third program that can begin to make some tentative travel arrangements for the middle of March. The Huskies are carrying a projected No. 11 seed, a number that has improved as James Bouknight has returned to action and as UConn has won four of its past five. The Huskies really love to crash the offensive glass.
 
Ricker said:
If Butler holds on vs Nova will our 2 wins get helped much? Up 10 now starting second half. Amazing that Creighton, Hall, and now Nova are having trouble with Butler while we dominated
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Golden is playing great, Nova has no answer.
 
NDakotaHusky said:
Wonder if we make it into the "other receiving votes" section of the top 25. We should. Was looking at it today. North Carolina is in that section. So is Xavier. What an odd year. We are not anywhere on the lost. Yet, I think most of us think we are a top 15 team. Oddly enough, I think many in the actual press feel the same. Very odd at this point in the season. Weeks before the tournament.
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Kolumbo said:
I didn't realize UConn was Others Receiving Votes in last week's Coaches Poll. Should make the AP list this week too. A few more wins and they'll be ranked. They need to beat SHU.
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Trying to work the clock up 11 under 3 min and the Butler kid takes a 3, 5 sec across half court - you know its your day when it goes in and a stupid play works out - up 14 under 3 min. I never would have guessed. Awful from the line. 2 of last 10. Nova 2-25 from 3. 8 conf wins for the 9th place team with wins over Creighton, Nova, and Hall is not shabby.
 
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MSU is 7-9 (might be 7-10 after Maryland game) in their league and is now slotted in the field - not even on the bubble - unreal
Did I hear during the Nova-Butler game that Nova only has 2 quadrant 1 wins?
To me if UConn is below the 7 seed they may fare better on sneaking up on some teams - they just need to punch the ticket but the team does need as many wins as possible based on the number of total games they have played is below a majority of teams in the NCAA hunt
Brochacho said:
My dream is to be the 6 or 7 seed to Houston’s 2. I think one of the things that helped us in 2014 was the familiarity of opponents. The whole team had beaten Florida, and our key players had experience beating Kentucky and Villanova. Plenty of experience at MSG - I think that really helped the team. Think our team would be incredibly comfortable playing against Houston.
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Many who contribute on this team haven't faced Houston and when it comes to physical matchups the Cougars are not a good one for UConn. The huskies don't have a good record vs. UH
 
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