Now 28 in Kenpom | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Now 28 in Kenpom

UcannUconn said:
Playing devils advocate. Teams in the mid-30s have missed the tournament before. We simply do not know how the committee will view the fact that we haven’t played as many games as the other teams and that we only have one win against tournament teams. We need to win games period. Need to go at least 2-1 to be safe. L to Hall, W vs G-Town, L in round 1 BET we’re likely out.
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But you have to look at what the other factors are.

Do we pass the eye test? Absolutely. Do we get benefit of the doubt for having two thirds of our losses without our best player? That can only help. Playing better at the end of the season than earlier? Yup. First division finish in a power conference. Check that.

There is literally no reason to rank us lower than our computer average. Because we've played less games, which you've raised? There is no precedent for that, but why in the world would the Committee penalize a team for having had games postponed?

I didn't say we could fall apart from here and still get in. But being on the bubble today means, as of today, reasonable people could differ as to whether we should be in or out. As of today, there is no reasonable argument that we should be out.
 
Butler win over Nova helped UConn slighty in Kenpom...still at 28 but points went from 19.44 to 19.60.

Butler rose from 124 to 108 & Nova only fell 2 spots to 10.

MD passes UConn I'm guessing though if they beat MSU.
 
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gtcam said:
Many who contribute on this team haven't faced Houston and when it comes to physical matchups the Cougars are not a good one for UConn. The huskies don't have a good record vs. UH
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I want no part of kelvin sampson coached team if avoidable. We had a great win at end of last season, and I’m not saying they are better, but I’m saying “ no thanks”. Playing those teams is like a trip to the endodontist. I don’t need a basketball root canal . I’ll roll our dice in another casino.
 
Bouk alone has to push UConn up a bit. NCAA wants eyeballs on the screen. NCAA lost $600 million last year not having the tournament. Bouk will bring some fans to the seats whether they’re sitting at home out in the stadium.
 
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August_West said:
I want no part of kelvin sampson coached team if avoidable. We had a great win at end of last season, and I’m not saying they are better, but I’m saying “ no thanks”. Playing those teams is like a trip to the endodontist. I don’t need a basketball root canal . I’ll roll our dice in another casino.
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Houston had over 50 points in the first half today with a couple of minutes to go.
 
You do all realize that they didn't take Davidson in 2009 and LeBron James was showing up at Steph Curry's games throughout the season and Steph and Davidson was an errant 3 from making the Final Four the year before.

They had beaten P5 teams that year too.

They ain't going to put in a borderline team because of some possible "star" factor. History shows us—beyond this Davidson example, to be clear—that they DGAF.
 
which top 25 teams have the lowest rankings in NET kenpom and BPI?
 
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Does anybody understand the Colgate Net rating of 9 and have an opinion as to why the Net metric should have the influence in does if an aberration like this is possible? I saw the mention, but never actually looked before today. Colgate's 12 games have been against just 3 teams. They are 4-0 vs Holy Cross, 4-0 vs BU, and 3-1 vs Army? Other teams in the Patriot League played games, Navy etc. Based on the CBS website schedule it doesn't even look like other league teams were scheduled and postponed or cancelled. What is the backstory I missed. Really strange. They are listed in second place in the Patriot league at 11-1 and I just assumed they had played vs other Patriot League teams. With this net rating, would this have been a window dressing quad 1 game for us to have played them when Bouk was hurt? ie Similar to the net manipulation of Big 10 teams.
 
Ricker said:
Does anybody understand the Colgate Net rating of 9 and have an opinion as to why the Net metric should have the influence in does if an aberration like this is possible? I saw the mention, but never actually looked before today. Colgate's 12 games have been against just 3 teams. They are 4-0 vs Holy Cross, 4-0 vs BU, and 3-1 vs Army? Other teams in the Patriot League played games, Navy etc. Based on the CBS website schedule it doesn't even look like other league teams were scheduled and postponed or cancelled. What is the backstory I missed. Really strange. They are listed in second place in the Patriot league at 11-1 and I just assumed they had played vs other Patriot League teams. With this net rating, would this have been a window dressing quad 1 game for us to have played them when Bouk was hurt? ie Similar to the net manipulation of Big 10 teams.
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The NET has been tuned to reflect the appropriate results under a normal season. It's not built to handle the exceptions that this season brings.

Teams with 0 non-conference games, teams with small numbers of games played, teams going 6-0 on the road with all victories by at least 7 points, teams with 3 40+ point wins among their 12 games played, teams with an average scoring margin of 18 points and who of their 11 wins won by 9+ points in 10 of them (and the one loss was by 2 points).

That's Colgate ^.

Aberrations will always be more prominent with less numbers of games. They get smoothed out by more games and more non-conference games, neither of which happened here. But results from other conferences that are less isolated and more prolific will be more normal(ish).

The B1G didn't manipulate the NET. They just had good teams, played well in non-conf overall, and because of the heavier schedule of conf vs. nonconf gave their medium teams more opportunities to win agaisnt good teams than other conferences. Systems factor this in, but people who only look at quadrant wins and don't factor in win% in those quadrants or scoring margin will be misled.
 
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Ricker said:
If Butler holds on vs Nova will our 2 wins get helped much? Up 10 now starting second half. Amazing that Creighton, Hall, and now Nova are having trouble with Butler while we dominated
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Being at this point, 7-0 vs DePaul, Marquette, Georgetown and Butler is no small feat. Those Teams have some scalps
 
In the others receiving vote category, we received 5 votes in the AP poll, 14 in the coaches poll.
 
Palatine said:
In the others receiving vote category, we received 5 votes in the AP poll, 14 in the coaches poll.
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Having Bouknight back I think really moved the needle. Made the team go from looking decent to looking really good. I'm sure a few of the AP pollsters caught the game and saw the instant improvement.

UConn also moved up to a 10 seed on Bracketmatrix. With a strong finish to the season, include in the BET, hopefully we see a solid seed line for the NCAAT.
 
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@auror you gave an excellent answer that doesn't actually square with the facts about the Big 10. For the following reasons the system being relied on is bull... Please consider.
1. The Big 10 league record is 17-14 vs quality conferences IF you include A10 teams - else 14-14
2. Zero wins vs any Big 12, SEC, or top Big East Teams
3. As a league, only 5 wins against teams that are in the top 5 of their own power conferences (2 A10)
4. Excluding the A10 the league only has 3 wins vs teams that are top 5 in their power conferences
5. All the Big 10 ncaa tournament teams combined only have 2 wins vs major conference teams that are in the top 5 of their own conferences against their own peers. TWO. (non tourney Penn State beat Virg Tech)
6. In essence The Big 10 is all powerful on the national stage because they beat a 6 loss UCLA team and a 5 loss Louisville team. UCLA and Louisville are the only 2 teams any of these Big 10 powerhouses have beaten.
7. The Big 10 is 0-8 vs out of conference power conference teams they played that were part of the top 32 teams in Lunardi's bracket last week. Zero

Here is the detail of their 17 great wins by the conference:
vs ACC
Virginia Tech - 3rd place but victory by Penn St not in ncaa field
Louisville - 4th place 5 losses
North Carolina - 6th place in own conference play
Duke 2 wins - 8th place in own conference play, ie not as good as other conference teams
Syracuse - 9th place
Notre Dame 3 wins - 11th place
BC - 14th place
vs Pac 12
UCLA 1st place – Best OOC Win but a 6 loss team
Stanford - 6th place in own conference
vs Big East
Providence - 7th place
Butler - 9th place
vs A10
VCU - 2nd place
St Louis - 4th place
Rhode Island - 10th place

After this murderer's row it is clear to me why they are the unquestioned best conference. NOT.
 
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Ricker said:
@auror you gave an excellent answer that doesn't actually square with the facts about the Big 10. For the following reasons the system being relied on is bull... Please consider.
1. The Big 10 league record is 17-14 vs quality conferences IF you include A10 teams - else 14-14
2. Zero wins vs any Big 12, SEC, or top Big East Teams
3. As a league, only 5 wins against teams that are in the top 5 of their own power conferences (2 A10)
4. Excluding the A10 the league only has 3 wins vs teams that are top 5 in their power conferences
5. All the Big 10 ncaa tournament teams combined only have 2 wins vs major conference teams that are in the top 5 of their own conferences against their own peers. TWO. (non tourney Penn State beat Virg Tech)
6. In essence The Big 10 is all powerful on the national stage because they beat a 6 loss UCLA team and a 5 loss Louisville team. UCLA and Louisville are the only 2 teams any of these Big 10 powerhouses have beaten.
7. The Big 10 is 0-8 vs out of conference power conference teams they played that were part of the top 32 teams in Lunardi's bracket last week. Zero

Here is the detail of their 17 great wins by the conference:
vs ACC
Virginia Tech - 3rd place but victory by Penn St not in ncaa field
Louisville - 4th place 5 losses
North Carolina - 6th place in own conference play
Duke 2 wins - 8th place in own conference play, ie not as good as other conference teams
Syracuse - 9th place
Notre Dame 3 wins - 11th place
BC - 14th place
vs Pac 12
UCLA 1st place – Best OOC Win but a 6 loss team
Stanford - 6th place in own conference
vs Big East
Providence - 7th place
Butler - 9th place
vs A10
VCU - 2nd place
St Louis - 4th place
Rhode Island - 10th place

After this murderer's row it is clear to me why they are the unquestioned best conference. NOT.
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Not analysis, whether it bears out or not this year, as it has in many past years. There does seem to be a clear case that B1G is better than ACC.

Curious to know how B12 stacks up as "best conference," if you're taking requests.
 
Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
Being at this point, 7-0 vs DePaul, Marquette, Georgetown and Butler is no small feat. Those Teams have some scalps
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This. The committee should no doubt see this, and not only are we 7-0, we have won the majority of those games by double digits, aside from one of the Depaul games where we won by 7 on the road. That's extremely impressive too.
 
Ricker said:
@auror you gave an excellent answer that doesn't actually square with the facts about the Big 10. For the following reasons the system being relied on is bull... Please consider.
1. The Big 10 league record is 17-14 vs quality conferences IF you include A10 teams - else 14-14
2. Zero wins vs any Big 12, SEC, or top Big East Teams
3. As a league, only 5 wins against teams that are in the top 5 of their own power conferences (2 A10)
4. Excluding the A10 the league only has 3 wins vs teams that are top 5 in their power conferences
5. All the Big 10 ncaa tournament teams combined only have 2 wins vs major conference teams that are in the top 5 of their own conferences against their own peers. TWO. (non tourney Penn State beat Virg Tech)
6. In essence The Big 10 is all powerful on the national stage because they beat a 6 loss UCLA team and a 5 loss Louisville team. UCLA and Louisville are the only 2 teams any of these Big 10 powerhouses have beaten.
7. The Big 10 is 0-8 vs out of conference power conference teams they played that were part of the top 32 teams in Lunardi's bracket last week. Zero

Here is the detail of their 17 great wins by the conference:
vs ACC
Virginia Tech - 3rd place but victory by Penn St not in ncaa field
Louisville - 4th place 5 losses
North Carolina - 6th place in own conference play
Duke 2 wins - 8th place in own conference play, ie not as good as other conference teams
Syracuse - 9th place
Notre Dame 3 wins - 11th place
BC - 14th place
vs Pac 12
UCLA 1st place – Best OOC Win but a 6 loss team
Stanford - 6th place in own conference
vs Big East
Providence - 7th place
Butler - 9th place
vs A10
VCU - 2nd place
St Louis - 4th place
Rhode Island - 10th place

After this murderer's row it is clear to me why they are the unquestioned best conference. NOT.
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I wonder what the Big East or ACC look like under this situation. I'm guessing not that great either.

Nova's best OOC win is against Texas. The other two P5 wins are against non tourney teams. Also lost to VT.
Creighton's OOC is also a ghostown. A loss to Kansas and a win against Nebraska.
UConn has USC, who is currently 3 in the PAC
Seton Hall has nothing but meh losses and Xavier has the OU win, roughly like the Texas one.

I didn't bother to try with the ACC or B12, but I wonder if they'd look that difference.
 
I agree with @Ricker. the small out of league sample reallly helps the big 10 with optics. The league is over rated every year and the lack of games didn’t let that perception get pushed back on as much as usual. Then they benefit from everyone being in the top 25 even without elite records.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
The league is over rated every year and the lack of games didn’t let that perception get pushed back on as much as usual.
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I mean, again, their performance in the postseason as a conference doesn't back up this. Take a look at the B12 performance for a contrast, and I don't buy that a Mario Chalmers prayer going in is the difference between conferences' two decades' performances.
 
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Ricker said:
@auror you gave an excellent answer that doesn't actually square with the facts about the Big 10. For the following reasons the system being relied on is bull... Please consider.
1. The Big 10 league record is 17-14 vs quality conferences IF you include A10 teams - else 14-14
2. Zero wins vs any Big 12, SEC, or top Big East Teams
3. As a league, only 5 wins against teams that are in the top 5 of their own power conferences (2 A10)
4. Excluding the A10 the league only has 3 wins vs teams that are top 5 in their power conferences
5. All the Big 10 ncaa tournament teams combined only have 2 wins vs major conference teams that are in the top 5 of their own conferences against their own peers. TWO. (non tourney Penn State beat Virg Tech)
6. In essence The Big 10 is all powerful on the national stage because they beat a 6 loss UCLA team and a 5 loss Louisville team. UCLA and Louisville are the only 2 teams any of these Big 10 powerhouses have beaten.
7. The Big 10 is 0-8 vs out of conference power conference teams they played that were part of the top 32 teams in Lunardi's bracket last week. Zero

Here is the detail of their 17 great wins by the conference:
vs ACC
Virginia Tech - 3rd place but victory by Penn St not in ncaa field
Louisville - 4th place 5 losses
North Carolina - 6th place in own conference play
Duke 2 wins - 8th place in own conference play, ie not as good as other conference teams
Syracuse - 9th place
Notre Dame 3 wins - 11th place
BC - 14th place
vs Pac 12
UCLA 1st place – Best OOC Win but a 6 loss team
Stanford - 6th place in own conference
vs Big East
Providence - 7th place
Butler - 9th place
vs A10
VCU - 2nd place
St Louis - 4th place
Rhode Island - 10th place

After this murderer's row it is clear to me why they are the unquestioned best conference. NOT.
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that's sum good mulch right thar. yes indeedy. capital! outstanding! knowledge is power.
'bbut james will only be 2nd team big east.' that's one of my faves. don't buy a car from any one of those bball geniuses who voted that way.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
I agree with @Ricker. the small out of league sample reallly helps the big 10 with optics. The league is over rated every year and the lack of games didn’t let that perception get pushed back on as much as usual. Then they benefit from everyone being in the top 25 even without elite records.
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How exactly do you think "optics" help computer rankings?
 
Is there anyway to segment out the games w/ Bouknight and w/o and rerun the analysis and Net/BPI/etc rankings?

We will not be judged really on the 8 games w/o bouk, but rather the resume WITH him in the lineup. I have to imagine this gives us a measurable bump in seed by the committee, as its such a well-known and publicized fact now.
 
tzznandrew said:
I didn't bother to try with the ACC or B12, but I wonder if they'd look that difference.
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but i think that's Ricker's point. the other conferences don't look that different yet the BIG10 is getting all the glory. imo the BIG12 is unquestionably the best conference and the BE should be getting more national love. the BIG10 should be getting less.
 
CTBasketball said:
Lots of 11 over 6 upsets!
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But not nearly as many as 10s vs 5s. 5 if the dreaded spot.

That said, none of the seeding will be remotely good this year. Not enough non conference games. Nobody has any idea who is better among those teams in Kenpom 10-35 or so. Teams are just going to have to win against whoever they play. It's even bad for high seeds. A 1 or 2 may face a wildly underseeded team in round 2.
 
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