Nova Game

[Kembacity]

Sorry has Dixon slimmed down in a major way? I see people saying Stewart should guard him, to me Reed is our only ideal cover for him. The guy is so big and strong and smart with his post moves. Maybe he’s smaller and quicker than reed but no one else on our roster will be able to pester him in single coverage.

I may be misremembering his best moments against us over the past few years but I’ve felt like Dixon has sort of torched us even when we’ve had some of our best bigs in that span with Sanogo and Clingan. I know he’s a bit smaller, but no mistaking that he fills up space like a 5 down low

 

[giddyup]

Going to take some step-up on D and serious effort on controlling the glass to win this. Not liking this game without AM.

 

[Hunt for 7]

Going to take some step-up on D and serious effort on controlling the glass to win this. Not liking this game without AM.

Is Mahaney not playing tonight?

 

[ctchamps]

Going to take some step-up on D and serious effort on controlling the glass to win this. Not liking this game without AM.

Don’t you mean LM?

Game has me concerned as well. Offense is always game to game. Defense is more predictable. Away games in BE are always kryptonite for visitors.

 

[Husky15]

Sorry has Dixon slimmed down in a major way? I see people saying Stewart should guard him, to me Reed is our only ideal cover for him. The guy is so big and strong and smart with his post moves. Maybe he’s smaller and quicker than reed but no one else on our roster will be able to pester him in single coverage.

I may be misremembering his best moments against us over the past few years but I’ve felt like Dixon has sort of torched us even when we’ve had some of our best bigs in that span with Sanogo and Clingan. I know he’s a bit smaller, but no mistaking that he fills up space like a 5 down low

The problem is he’s now the best volume 3 point shooter in the country. Shooting 50% on over 80 attempts and is able to create space with a step back game that could be tough for Reed to guard.

 

[Husky15]

We are officially dogs tonight. Villanova has moved to -1.5 favorites

 

[Hunt for 7]

Sorry has Dixon slimmed down in a major way? I see people saying Stewart should guard him, to me Reed is our only ideal cover for him. The guy is so big and strong and smart with his post moves. Maybe he’s smaller and quicker than reed but no one else on our roster will be able to pester him in single coverage.

I may be misremembering his best moments against us over the past few years but I’ve felt like Dixon has sort of torched us even when we’ve had some of our best bigs in that span with Sanogo and Clingan. I know he’s a bit smaller, but no mistaking that he fills up space like a 5 down low

He is playing more on the perimeter this year. Shooting almost 50% from 3 with 98 attempts. So 42% of his shots are from three.

On the perimeter I think Alex has a better chance at guarding him than Reed and someone is going to have to deal with their big man to start the game.

Their freshman big starts the game and he seems to be getting better and appears to be a very good rebounder. But still only plays 20 minutes a game and they do play with Dixon and four guards a lot.

But their guards except for Brickus are all 6’4” or better so even with a four guard lineup they are formidable on the glass as Poplar is their leading rebounder. All in all this is going to be a huge challenge tonight without Liam.

 

[superjohn]

He is playing more on the perimeter this year. Shooting almost 50% from 3 with 98 attempts. So 42% of his shots are from three.

On the perimeter I think Alex has a better chance at guarding him than Reed and someone is going to have to deal with their big man to start the game.

Their freshman big starts the game and he seems to be getting better and appears to be a very good rebounder. But still only plays 20 minutes a game and they do play with Dixon and four guards a lot.

But their guards except for Brickus are all 6’4” or better so even with a four guard lineup they are formidable on the glass as Poplar is their leading rebounder. All in all this is going to be a huge challenge tonight without Liam.

Who is their freshman big starter?

 

[Hunt for 7]

Who is their freshman big starter?

My bad meant Boakye who is a senior. Not sure how that happened.

 

[Marat]

We are officially dogs tonight. Villanova has moved to -1.5 favorites

That makes more sense.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Wooga Poplar scares me the most because Stewart, Ross, and especially Ball have been beyond abysmal on defense.

I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).

 

[Tenspro2002]

That makes more sense.

Does it?

Implies we'd be like a 2 point favorite on a neutral floor or only 5-6 point favorite at home.

Or they're giving Nova an insane home court advantage.

 

[RuffRuff]

Does it?

Implies we'd be like a 2 point favorite on a neutral floor or only 5-6 point favorite at home.

Or they're giving Nova an insane home court advantage.

Lot of sense - we are 4 points better than them in the KP and home court is usually worth 3. -1 Huskies nails it.

 

[adrock7]

If you had a nice $750K home near the Villanova campus would you want a bar like that in the neighborhood?

Imagine thinking a nice house in the Main Line only costs $750k.

 

[CTBasketball]

I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).

Let’s not forget Ball and Ross/Stewart have had trouble guarding players from Le Moyne. Wooga is a step up…

 

[RuffRuff]

This may be the most interesting matchup to date in terms of curiosity to how Dan Hurley gameplans. The gameplan defensively is clear as day, so it's just a matter if we can execute. If we get torched by Dixon/Poplar and they account for their standard 45-50 points/60% of their overall scoring, will be a very strong suggestion that we just can't defend. Dying to see what Hurley dials up and if this crew is up to the challenge. Fun.

UConn a 1 point dog now on DK, KP also has them losing 78-77. Get to that bulletin board Danny.

 

[tennmike]

Every Villanova opponent sets out to shut down Dixon yet he still gets 26; he's beating all assignments. Going to be tough and it will be interesting to see how the best coaches in the country game plan against this challenge.

 

[aceboon]

 

[gtcam]

So UConn is the #16 of the top 16 according to Lunardi?

 

[gars44]

I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).

Thanks for the jinx! I’m saying he goes off for 20 points +/- 2, Nova by 9.

 

[mauconnfan]

So UConn is the #16 of the top 16 according to Lunardi?

He’s such a stiff it amazes me people care about his thoughts of the brackets.

 

[gars44]

Imagine thinking a nice house in the Main Line only costs $750k.

I was talking about at the mobile home park. They have a nice one there!

 

[bendm]

I was going to say it’s because they can’t defend and then went to look up their KP and they are 50 better than us on KP defense .

nova is the team that cant defend

Top 10 in both KP ORtg and DRtg:
1. Duke (ORtg 9/ DRtg 1)
4. ISU (ORtg 6 / DRtg 8)

Top 25 in both:
2. Auburn (ORtg 1 / DRtg 19)
3. Houston (ORtg 16 / DRtg 2)
5. Florida (ORtg 3 / DRtg 16)
7. Gonzaga (ORtg 7 / DRtg 21)
8. Kansas (ORtg 23 / DRtg 5)
10. Michigan (ORtg 10 / DRtg 17)
11. Marquette (ORtg 18 / DRtg 14)
12. Illinois (ORtg 19 / DRtg 13)
13. Arizona (ORtg 15 / DRtg 22)
15. Miss St (ORtg 17 / DRtg 25)

so 12 of the top 25 teams are elite on both sides of the ball. a lot of good well-rounded teams this year.

23. UConn (ORtg 2 / DRtg 131)
41. Nova (Ortg 5/ DRtg 180)

we match up well with Nova. elite offenses and average defenses but we're a bit better on both sides of the ball.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I don't have a great feeling about tonight....we need to jump on them early and push the lead to 12-15 by halftime or we may just be in for a really long night. We're bound to drop a game our two without McNeeley and this is very likely one of them. Hopefully we can pull one out.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

nova is the team that cant defend

Top 10 in both KP ORtg and DRtg:
1. Duke (ORtg 9/ DRtg 1)
4. ISU (ORtg 6 / DRtg 8)

Top 25 in both:
2. Auburn (ORtg 1 / DRtg 19)
3. Houston (ORtg 16 / DRtg 2)
5. Florida (ORtg 3 / DRtg 16)
7. Gonzaga (ORtg 7 / DRtg 21)
8. Kansas (ORtg 23 / DRtg 5)
10. Michigan (ORtg 10 / DRtg 17)
11. Marquette (ORtg 18 / DRtg 14)
12. Illinois (ORtg 19 / DRtg 13)
13. Arizona (ORtg 15 / DRtg 22)
15. Miss St (ORtg 17 / DRtg 25)

so 12 of the top 25 teams are elite on both sides of the ball. a lot of good well-rounded teams this year.

23. UConn (ORtg 2 / DRtg 131)
41. Nova (Ortg 5/ DRtg 180)

Just a reminder about what it takes to move up and down the ladder for KenPom DRtg:

The DRtg number is just points allowed per 100 possessions. We're at 104.1 currently.

Note that each game we play, there are about 65-70 defensive possessions.

Tighten up the D to make just 2 more stops per game than what we're currently doing and that shaves roughly 5 off our current number.

99.1 pts/100 possessions represents a KP Top 50 defense!

I think that's doable!


Note: Yes, I know there are "magic" KP adjustments for strength of opponent, pace of play. etc. But they aren't going to make the key point above any different. Our raw DRtg is 102.